The South China Sea presents a reality check for America

[Deleted]

It used to be called the "Golden Arches" theory - that if two countries had McDonalds in them, they'd never engage in hostility.

LMFAO.... who came up with that shit?

[Skroe]

LMFAO.... who came up with that shit?

Thomas Friedman. It was just more 1990s-mid 2000s globalization euphoria. Same shit as Francis Fukuyama's End of History, with a difference face. The "Golden Arches" theory is short hand for bi-lateral economic integration, and more broadly integrating into the global economy, will encourage conflict prevention.

To some degree, yes it is true that trade acts as an inhibitor against conflict. But the Golden Arches theory greatly overstates the case. The US, Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France, Turkey, Israel have all independently shown over the past 15 years that they will always place security matters over economic matters if it reaches a certain level of importance to their core interests.

There's a lot of people that should be embarrassed by the myopic things they wrote in that period. Money rules much of the world, but not all of it. Trade makes US-Chinese conflict less likely. But unlikely? That's greatly overstating the case.

[Deleted]

Because America kicked some British ass not once but twice. But I digress.

Pretty sure you lost the second war - That's what they call it when enemy troops burn the capital building.

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But keep in mind: Trump's NATO statements, "America First", hostility towards Merkel, coddling of Russia/Putin, demolition of the State Department... all of these cumulatively are adding up to something even more ruinous.

The Chief concern out of the Red Line incident was "Will the US keep it's word under Obama?" Trump's disastrous foreign policy thus-far has raised the exact same question "Will the US keep its security guarantees to us under Trump?"

If Trump were to resign tomorrow it will take years to reverse the damage he's already done to NATO. Furthermore Trump's pointless war on the US intelligence community, which lets be clear, mostly benefits Russia, is already deeply straining five eyes to the point some analysts expect it to collapse in the next few years.

Why? Consider Trump's insane lies about GCHQ just to cover his own ass. That's why. Foreign Governments do not trust Trump.

To be honest, i don't think (if anything does) that its the lack of belief in the security guarantee that could kill NATO, its the rare confluence of events with Brexit, and its possible implications regarding EU military co-operation, added to the dislike of Trump.
If the negotiations goes sour (which they are likely to, simply because the UK wants things it cannot have) in conjunction with a US seen as more and more 'domineering' and EU security seen as more of a priority.
The conclusion might be that the EU feels forced to pay for its own defense (and then detaches from the US), That could reduce the importance of NATO quite drastically.

[Kellhound]

Pretty sure you lost the second war - That's what they call it when enemy troops burn the capital building.

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To be honest, i don't think (if anything does) that its the lack of belief in the security guarantee that could kill NATO, its the rare confluence of events with Brexit, and its possible implications regarding EU military co-operation, added to the dislike of Trump.
If the negotiations goes sour (which they are likely to, simply because the UK wants things it cannot have) in conjunction with a US seen as more and more 'domineering' and EU security seen as more of a priority.
The conclusion might be that the EU feels forced to pay for its own defense (and then detaches from the US), That could reduce the importance of NATO quite drastically.

1812 is considered a draw actually.

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The USN/USMC has the ability to take by force every "island" China occupies in the SCS, and China really could not prevent it. That is the military reality.

[Moadar]

I think China is the paper tiger here until proven otherwise.

China has a long proud military history of..........getting their ass kicked. Check out world war 2 where they got pulverized by the much smaller Japan. WW2 is significant for chineese women because its the first time they got to sleep with a winner.

[Puupi]

China has a long proud military history of..........getting their ass kicked. Check out world war 2 where they got pulverized by the much smaller Japan. WW2 is significant for chineese women because its the first time they got to sleep with a winner.

Oh dear......

[Moadar]

Oh dear......

Did I say something incorrect or do you think its nation bashing to state the fact they got brutalized by Japan in ww2?

[Puupi]

Did I say something incorrect or do you think its nation bashing to state the fact they got brutalized by Japan in ww2?

Well let's start with this "China" during WW2 you are talking about. What is it? What nation? And what about the China today, is it the same China you were talking about in WW2?

And about those women.... holy hell. First off, that is very rude and nasty rape apology. Secondly, IIRC Japan lost the war......remember those two little poofs; little boy and fat man?

[Shibito]

Man always someone on this board denying reality.

[Release]

Thomas Friedman. It was just more 1990s-mid 2000s globalization euphoria. Same shit as Francis Fukuyama's End of History, with a difference face. The "Golden Arches" theory is short hand for bi-lateral economic integration, and more broadly integrating into the global economy, will encourage conflict prevention.

To some degree, yes it is true that trade acts as an inhibitor against conflict. But the Golden Arches theory greatly overstates the case. The US, Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France, Turkey, Israel have all independently shown over the past 15 years that they will always place security matters over economic matters if it reaches a certain level of importance to their core interests.

There's a lot of people that should be embarrassed by the myopic things they wrote in that period. Money rules much of the world, but not all of it. Trade makes US-Chinese conflict less likely. But unlikely? That's greatly overstating the case.

I'm not sure I believe you though when you say a conflict with China is inevitable. Putting aside trade or being ready militarily does either nation either really want that at the end of the day? It's putting into effect an uncontrollable series of events which could lead to WW3 and like Einstein i'm inclined to believe if we fight WW3 we'll fight the next world war with spears and bows.

[Deleted]

It's called the South China Sea. Why are Americans even there in the first place? George Washington laid out the perfect foreign policy plan for America in his farewell address. It's a shame every president since then has done the exact opposite.

And Baltic Sea is called Baltic Sea.

Now, can we - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - lay claim for it all?
We sure would like to. :^)

[Puupi]

And Baltic Sea is called Baltic Sea.

Now, can we - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania - lay claim for it all?
We sure would like to. :^)

Objection! It's called Itämeri (East Sea) in Finnish!

PS. Gulf of Finland is ours!

[Deleted]

Objection! It's called Itämeri (East Sea) in Finnish!

PS. Gulf of Finland is ours!

Östersjön is ours.

[Deleted]

PS. Gulf of Finland is ours!

Feel free to have it, Russians have polluted so badly it should be renamed in to ''Gulf of Floating Shit and Oil Spills''.

[Puupi]

Feel free to have it, Russians have polluted so badly it should be renamed in to ''Gulf of Floating Shit and Oil Spills''.

True.

Polish are doing their best at achieving the same in the western Baltic Sea.

[Deleted]

And New England is called New England, but that doesn't mean it belongs to England yet.

Your new UK overlords would welcome a successful NEexit referendum.

[Kellhound]

China has a long proud military history of..........getting their ass kicked. Check out world war 2 where they got pulverized by the much smaller Japan. WW2 is significant for chineese women because its the first time they got to sleep with a winner.

China has a long proud history fighting itself, then forming a unified country, splitting, fighting itself, and reforming as a unified country.

[Puupi]

China has a long proud history fighting itself, then forming a unified country, splitting, fighting itself, and reforming as a unified country.

somethingsomethingmongols.....

[Kellhound]

somethingsomethingmongols.....

mongolssomethingsomethingkickedeveryonesasssomethingsomething

[Moadar]

Well let's start with this "China" during WW2 you are talking about. What is it? What nation? And what about the China today, is it the same China you were talking about in WW2?

And about those women.... holy hell. First off, that is very rude and nasty rape apology. Secondly, IIRC Japan lost the war......remember those two little poofs; little boy and fat man?

Rape apology? I never apologized or said they weren't raped, what I said was more about Chinese men than the women.

Little boy and fat man were dropped by the USA, China was thoroughly whipped by Japan.

The China today is much different from the one in WW2 mostly owing to the influx of much stronger genetic material that occurred during WW2.