Mafia #82 - Everybody's got a secret

[Graeham]

Well he appears to be offline now so that might not help much.

He's back now!

I'm just playing overwatch, I post between matches and junk

Nice. Who are you playing as, mostly? My three most played heroes are 76, Symmetra and Mei in that order.

[Virothe]

He's back now!



Nice. Who are you playing as, mostly? My three most played heroes are 76, Symmetra and Mei in that order.

Road, Mei, Reaper. Got a Roadhog cosplay for Chicago comic-con, gonna be great. Robo's gonna be Junkrat.

[listo95]

I'll be alone over here with my Mercy...

[Graeham]

Road, Mei, Reaper. Got a Roadhog cosplay for Chicago comic-con, gonna be great. Robo's gonna be Junkrat.

Will there be pictures? That sounds pretty cool!

I'll be alone over here with my Mercy...

I do find her fun to play at times, though usually I play Overwatch to wind down after FF14 stuff and I play a tank there so I don't tend to be in a healing/tanking mood when I play Overwatch. I do, however, switch if nobody else is playing one though.

[Virothe]

Will there be pictures? That sounds pretty cool!

This is prbly gonna be huge, but I blame Graem



And I just don't play support because I find it boring and frustrating unless you have people who know how to play

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Also I have the belt piece, I just forgot to put it on for the pic

[Graeham]

@Virothe

Oh, wow! That's really cool!

...and yeah, support is definitely frustrating and often a thankless task, unfortunately.

[Danner]

I must admit the fisherman claim is great. Very believable. The action of using an investigate on dupti - less so. But overall there is doubt in my mind that graeham is mafia.
@Celtic209 : only you left.
@everyone : day 2 is awesome for vote trails. Read it.

[Deleted]

Sorry my inactivity. I'll get out of bed and explain myself now

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Ok first apologies for my inactivity. Girlfriend hurt her back so I was minding her and then the last day phase ended abruptly meaning I wasn't able to participate (which has lead me to the conclusion, I don't really have time for mafia sadly :-\).
Luckily the girlfriend is gone for the afternoon so I can focus all my efforts on this game.

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I see that we are claiming.

I am a Monk. I have two powers. The first is One Inch Punch, a one time vigilante kill, which only has a % chance to kill. The second is my Meditation ability whereby I spend the night meditating so that I can raise the chance of my kill going through.

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I've meditated all nights (just in case you're wondering)

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I've also figured out who has the extra vote:

Largehorn: 7 (+1) - Danner #173, Marack #175, Listo #177, Graeham #181, Crackleslap #182, Palawin #195, Tumppu #202

Kleos: 4 (+1) - Tumppu #493, Listo #500, Graeham #503, Virothe #504

3 Common Denominators:
Listo
Tumppu
Graeham

But wait! Theres more!

Palawin: 6 - Virothe #441, Celtic #442, Tumppu #443, Crackleslap #483, Listo #485, Palawin #489

No extra Vote. So that eliminates Tumpy and Listo

Leaving us with....*drumroll*

Vote Graeham

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And as for my opinions of people:

Celtic209- Lazy inactive Vig
Danner - Dodgy Bulletproof townie
Graeham - Extra Vote Scum
Listo - Silent Bodyguard
Tumppu - Good Tracking
Virothe - Good Quiz Master

I'm going to elaborate on two: Danner I've felt is slightly off this game. Couple this with the fact that he's only BP on N1 leads me to believe he is lying, but about what I don't quite know.

Listo is has not impressed me all game at all. I've seen no brilliant insights or even good posts.

[Virothe]

Leaving us with....*drumroll*

Well I mean.... There goes my question damn it >.<

I was pretty sure I was right in who I thought it was, but When I can make 100% sure why wouldn't I?

I figured we would be turning attention to the poisoner in thread, but the double vote was to the point where it could start to be a real threat if it wasn't caught asap

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Oh also

Unvote

Still no real proof of either Listo's or Celtics or Danners roles and that makes narrowing down the poisoner pretty difficult at this point.

Listo claims bodyguard,
Danner claims bulletproof,
Celtic claims monk,

Out of these three I would say Listo's claim feels the most in the middle I suppose going by the protectors card flips so far this game he can't protect people twice until everyone is visited. This seems like a very good way to do a soft fake claim, as you're giving us a card we've seen just enough to assume what yours would be. So I still have issues with it over all.

Danner's next "Bulletproof" so basically all his stuff is just "Take my word for it" which is fine, he's delivered a lot of really good stuff to the thread but his early game still feels really off to me. But again my biggest issue here is just.... What would your drawback be? Of all the claims this is the hardest one for me to figure out and because of it the claim feels the weakest of the three.

Celtic, Honestly I feel like yours is the strongest claim because I could see an easy drawback to this being if you miss your kill you die and hence why you need to perpetually meditate to increase the chance meaning you prbly are not a one shot kill but the likely hood of two hits is pretty small unless we get to game 20 days and that seems to fit the over all theme.

[Danner]

That is all thee claims then. I then bring you the following. And I am kinda beating myself up for posting part of it before Listo claimed.

Someone with good notes might put the claims and actions attached to those on display, so even those who only pop in infrequently can see them? I'll be back in a bit, but hockey now.

Confirmed Night Kills:
- Danner hit by poison on N1.
- Kryllian hit by poison on N2, died on N3.
- Dupti stabbed on N3.
- Catta stabbed on N4.
- Crackleslap stabbed on N5.
- Marack poisoned on N5, died on N6.

We should assume there are 6 missing kills. That's a whole lot.

----

Confirmed Roles and actions:
- Largehorn: Town Spy.
- Never formally revealed any results.

- Catta: Botanist.
- Visited Danner on N1. Danner was poisoned.
- I assume he cured me on N2, but not confirmed.

- Dupti: Botanist.
- Visited Danner on N2. Danner was still poisoned.

- Crackleslap: Watcher.
- Visited Marack on N1. Saw nobody.
- Visited Marack on N2. Saw nobody.
- Visited Dupti on N3. Saw Graeham and Kleos.
- Visited Virothe on N4. Saw no visitors.

- Kryllian: Cop
- Never formally revealed any results.
- Crackle was convinced I was investigated on N1, and Kryllian's attitude to me was as a result.
- I personally think he investigated Dupti on N1.
- Interpretations of his accusations left as an exercise to the reader.

- PalawinFC: Godfather.

- Kleos: Mafia Roleblocker
- Likely went nowhere on N2 (unless ninja or tumppu lying)
- Likely stabbed dupti to death on N3
- Likely blocked Tumppu on N5

- Marack: Doctor
- Protected Marack on N1
- Protected Catta on N2
- Protected Marack on N3
- Protected Graeham on N4
- Likely protected Marack on N5.
- Likely protected Tumppu on N6. Probably also blocked a stab kill that night.

----


Claims:
- Danner: Bulletproof.
- Immune to NKs on N1

- Virothe: Questioner.
- Have "quests" to get answers to questions, akin to "vote twice one day, no more no less". The "quest" changes with every question.
- "What role is Palawin" -> Godfather
- "How many night kills are there" -> varies from night to night
- "Who is the cop" -> cop died same night
- current quest: reach 100 posts.

- Tumppu: Tracker.
- Virothe went nowhere on N1
- Kleos went nowhere on N2
- Crackle visited Dupti on N3
- Catta visited Tumppu on N4
- Tracking Graeham offered "no result" on N5
- Listo visited Tumppu on N6

- Graeham: Fisherman
- Visited Dupti on N3
- Visited nobody on other nights if I got that right

- Listo: Bodyguard
- N1: Dupti
- N2: Danner
- N3: Catta
- N4: Graeham
- N5: Virothe
- N6: tumppu

- Celtic: Monk
- Meditated all nights.

[Graeham]

None of the potential items that I can fish up have the ability to influence my votes in any way. So if my votes are being manipulated then it has to be a targeted ability by another party and not my own doing. It goes without saying but today cannot end early until we have exhausted discussion. I have more to say, but I will likely do it later once I've had a nap.

I do not believe that Celtic is who he says he is, though. I also do not think it wise to give someone with a claimed kill the benefit of the doubt when we've seen multiple kill signatures already. I'm also not going to be very happy if I end up being the reason as to why town lose a game not once but twice in a row. That isn't going to be very good for my morale, really...

Incidentally, to tap into my typical paranoia I would not be terribly surprised if a desperate mafia member or a serial killer sought to exploit me as a convenient mislynch at a critical point in the game. This has happened before in the past, after all. Sometimes it has been due to my own fault, other times it has not.

For now, though, I will have to be back later. I will give my full reads on each of the remaining players at that point in time.

[Danner]

So, that out of the way, thinking time.

--

First, interesting theory from Celtic regarding the votes. Good contribution!
But I am not convinced it is that easy. I am quite confident that the +1 voter is scum, considering how the gameday ended early on D6 before I could talk to Marack properly. But when scum have extra votes, it tends to be independent of the actual vote trail to avoid these kind of trackbacks. Could this be some ridiculous elaborate plot to set up Graeham?

That thought aside, it seems to hold water. Every end of day vote count with Graeham on it, there is a +1 vote. Every end of day vote count without Graeham on it, no such thing. It adds up. Really.

As such, I am pretty sure Celtic is correct here. And it means that Graeham has lied.

The only thing holding me back is that this seems way too easy. Because I also consider the following:

I do not think Graeham is the poisoner. I expect the poisoner to be ninja. Because that's what poisoners usually are. I could be wrong. But Graeham was visibly spotted on N3. Which is very uncharacteristic for a role I expect to be ninja.

I also have an issue thinking Graeham is mafia when I consider it. Because Kleos visited Dupti on D3 alongside Graeham. If the mafia sent someone to kill Dupti, what ever would they do to also send another member along? Kleos Block+ Graeham kill only makes sense if the poisoner is a mafia-controlled kill and they wanted to prevent Dupti from curing someone. But if that is the case, why not Catta? And considering it was no secret that Dupti visited me on N2, I can't get that to add up either.

To me it doesn't add up too much to send two people to on one player on N3 no matter how I twist this. I feel I am missing something of the puzzle here. But I am forced to conclude that Graeham = poisoner is much more likely than the alternative.

But half a gameday ago, I was thinking listo or celtic was the poisoner.

[Virothe]

I also have an issue thinking Graeham is mafia when I consider it. Because Kleos visited Dupti on D3 alongside Graeham. If the mafia sent someone to kill Dupti, what ever would they do to also send another member along? Kleos Block+ Graeham kill only makes sense if the poisoner is a mafia-controlled kill and they wanted to prevent Dupti from curing someone. But if that is the case, why not Catta? And considering it was no secret that Dupti visited me on N2, I can't get that to add up either.

This is sorta answered by my theory of a very green mafia or the vets being able to do little to influence actions, because this isn't something someone very familiar with being scum would vindicate as a good method of attack but I could see green scum players thinking it was a good way to do things. I've been thining about it ever since we got the watcher result and it just kinds fits a lot of little things together.

But it's not concrete enough for me to push, I asked who the extra vote belonged to in order to try to follow up on my hunch but /shrug

[Danner]

It's possible, but still. It just feels weird.

I'm still not sure who to vote for today.

I like Graeham's roleclaim, but absolutely dislike his one night action. And looking at it from a convenience point of view, having one night action the one night he was spotted with a night action is ... contrieved. Also, Celtic put forth a pretty solid theory for the +1 vote.

I dislike Listo's roleclaim, and seriously dislike his targeting. The only targeting I think makes perfect sense is the one on N6. Failing to bodyguard Crackleslap is just wrong. Also how that targeting ends up dodging all the watchings is ... contrieved.

I dislike Celtic's roleclaim. Or rather, the name of it is actually very believable, and the main reason I'm not jumping on him. (His theory of the +1 vote being so damned good a distant second). I just don't think a chancey vig kill fits the game. And in a 14 player game, you'd think he has hit that 100% kill chance already since we're now at day 7. I doubt any mod balanced the game around all those no-lynches. Despite Palawin's role.

So... I still lean all three scum. I think I want to lynch Listo the most. The question is whether listo is the SK poisoner. There is a decent chance he is. At least that was what I thought until I started considering what graeham can be.

So I wonder if I am wrong on the assumption that there are three scum left.

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And for the record, I do think there is something to the theory that the mafia lacked some experience.

[Virothe]

So where do you want to go from here then Danner?

[Danner]

I do not know.

So I went back to D2. It's the best day for trains.

Palawin votes Virothe
Celtic votes Palawin
Palawin unvotes
Danner votes Palawin
Crackleslap votes Palawin
Largehorn votes Danner
Dupti votes Danner
Virothe votes Palawin
Graeham votes Danner
tumppu votes Danner
Catta votes Palawin
Dupti unvotes
Danner votes Largehorn
Marack votes Largehorn
Listo votes Largehorn
Graeham votes Largehorn
Crackleslap votes Largehorn
Kryllian votes Palawin
Palawin votes Largehorn
Tumppu votes Largehorn
Dupti votes Largehorn
Kleos votes Largehorn


Basically:
- I voted for Palawin, but then suckered into creating the largehorn train. *sigh*
- Celtic voted against palawin, and stuck to him after I created a train for Largehorn.
- Listo voted in favour of palawin after I created a train for Largehorn
- Graeham consistently voted in favour of Palawin, both before and after I created a train for Largehorn
- Tumppu consistently voted in favour of Palawin, both before and after I created a train for Largehorn
- Virothe stuck to Palawin all the time.

Best reads from D2: Virothe/Celtic town. Graeham/tumppu/listo scum. and I honestly would say Danner is scum too for creating that largehorn train away from the godfather. Bah.

Let's look at some more days...

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Argh. Browser crash deleted my post.
Gonna re-do it because D3 is super interesting too!

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WTF! Again!!!!

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D3:

Virothe votes Palawin
Dupti votes Palawin
Catta votes Palawin
Celtic votes Listo
Kleos votes Palawin
Danner votes Palawin
Palawin goes immune

Dupti unvotes (redundant)
tumppu votes listo
Dupti votes marack
Dupti unvotes
Danner votes celtic
Virothe votes celtic
Kryllian votes listo
kleos votes listo
Marack unvotes
Palawin votes celtic
Virothe votes listo
Marack votes celtic
celtic votes celtic

This day is amazing. Especially interesting are
- Virothe again starting off voring Palawin.
- Celtic going against the GF train, voting listo. I am not sure this is scummy, since there was zero chance palawin would be lynched that day (due to immunity).
- tumppu joind the listo train, making it 2 votes against nothing. I do not believe tumppu is on a team with listo.
- Danner and Virothe now makes a celtic train, making an alternate option to the listo train.
- Memo to self: What if listo and celtic are both trains on mafia?
- Kleos votes Listo, making it unlikely listo is scum.
- Palawin votes Celtic, making it unlikely celtic is scum.
- Virothe switches to listo.
- celtic self-votes. No lynch that day.

They way I see this, this day pretty much clears listo and celtic of being mafia, unless BOTH of them are mafia, at which point the scum would just throw themselves on both trains I guess?

Leaving Graeham as the main mafioso suspect. Why does it keep coming back to this?!

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Hypotesis:

Mafia downside: must send two killers to do a stab kill.
Ie, both graeham and kleos killed dupti.

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I think I want to lynch Graeham honestly. But I want to make sure.
@Graeham: can you list your powerup shopping list?
Did you get/use any other item than the investigate?

[Virothe]

I think I want to lynch Graeham honestly. But I want to make sure.
@Graeham: can you list your powerup shopping list?
Did you get/use any other item than the investigate?

Ya pretty much where I'm at, just waiting on graegrae

[tumppu]

Hm, thanks for those summaries. There was no vote from graeham on D3?

[Virothe]

Hm, thanks for those summaries. There was no vote from graeham on D3?

Looking back I didn't see any from him, and I don't see it on Danners list here so imma say he didn't

[Graeham]

Right, I'm awake again. I ended up getting invited out soon after I woke up. Needless to say I'm not pleased by the sudden push in my direction. I am certain that there is scum between Danner and Celtic at this point. Potentially both, but I doubt that they are aligned with each other. There are a few reasons why I believe that at least one of them is lying so I will do my best to explain them as today advances.

@Danner

Here's the list of items that I can potentially obtain:

- Bandage (Doctor, targeted)
- Antidote (Self, passive)
- Magnifying Glass (Investigate, targeted)
- Binoculars (Targeted, serves as a means of watching another player)

I can only acquire each item once but I can attempt to fish for them as many times as I want until I see success. Now, given that I need to spend a night trying to fish up an item and it is based on a percentage of success I'm struggling to understand why you are so eager to paint it as suspicious for me to not be heading off on multiple nights. Your speculation is usually incredibly in-depth but you seem to be ignoring the possibility that I may have had some opportunity to defend myself or made use of a targeted ability upon myself.

I only managed to obtain two items - namely a bandage and a magnifying glass. I used the glass on Dupti and the bandage on myself. On the nights I did not use any targeted abilities I was busy fishing, but I only succeeded at fishing anything up on 2/7 nights. For the record, that seven is not a mistake - I was able to do a fishing attempt on 'Night 0' which was, for all intents and purposes, the very start of the game. That proved pointless, though, since I didn't obtain anything during that attempt.

Now, to avoid letting this post get too long I'll take a breather here and write more stuff in a little while.

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Hm, thanks for those summaries. There was no vote from graeham on D3?

If that aligned with April 8th then it was my birthday at the time I will readily admit to not putting in as much effort as usual around that period due to being distracted by other matters. I did point this out, I believe - but I won't hold it against anybody for missing it.

@Danner

You should be very careful with your speculation given the rules in place. We're not allowed to discuss drawbacks, either directly or indirectly from what I recall of the game's rules. Including hypothetical scenarios, I believe.