Latest North Korean missile test FAILS

[Skroe]

And you know that "cheaper" and "safer" is not exactly why these complex missiles are developed.
People here are useful idiots, thinking they "beat" dangerous NK. Your point of view is at least understandable, you don't want NK to be able to defend itself. Others are thinking that because of this, they're not able to attack. What...

It's far from clear if North Korea has achieved the ability to miniaturize a nuclear device to fit on a warhead yet. You don't need a nuclear warhead to make a ballistic missile destructive, but it is a distinct step that hasn't necessarily happened yet. This is important because North Korea is essentially retracing the steps of the US/USSR. The first tests were "devices"... basically lab experiments set to explode. Miniaturizing that and putting them in a mobile casing was the second step. And once that was achieved almost all tests were of would-be production weapon designs, and no longer lab experiment.

To put it simply, it's important to know if North Korea is testing a "device" or is testing a "warhead".

In any event, the clock is ticking for that. Of course North Korea, even poor as it is, will be able to replicate 1950s technology eaiser and cheaper in 2017, given enough time. And that's of course the way this has gone: North Korea has been given all the time its ever needed, and it keeps advancing.

Despite this failure there is no reason to think they won't succeed in the next few tests, and just build on that success.

[Gaidax]

Just wondered why Kim Jong-Il made his youngest son (today's Kim Jong-Un) his successor; he fathered 3 sons at all.

Because the oldest one was a total idiot and fucked up royally, so he was set aside.

[Bullettime]

It's far from clear if North Korea has achieved the ability to miniaturize a nuclear device to fit on a warhead yet. You don't need a nuclear warhead to make a ballistic missile destructive, but it is a distinct step that hasn't necessarily happened yet. This is important because North Korea is essentially retracing the steps of the US/USSR. The first tests were "devices"... basically lab experiments set to explode. Miniaturizing that and putting them in a mobile casing was the second step. And once that was achieved almost all tests were of would-be production weapon designs, and no longer lab experiment.

To put it simply, it's important to know if North Korea is testing a "device" or is testing a "warhead".

In any event, the clock is ticking for that. Of course North Korea, even poor as it is, will be able to replicate 1950s technology eaiser and cheaper in 2017, given enough time. And that's of course the way this has gone: North Korea has been given all the time its ever needed, and it keeps advancing.

Despite this failure there is no reason to think they won't succeed in the next few tests, and just build on that success.

Yup NK doesn't exactly even need modern level nuclear missiles like the US has. All they have to do is repeat 1950s Russia to get something capable of, even if not striking us, causing catastrophic damage to Japan. The US aren't the only target if Kim pushes the button despite some people thinking such. A missile fired into a Japanese metropolitan center or deployed via submarine to one is just as likely, if not more likely, than a first strike again the US and would do horrific amounts of damage given how centered the Japanese population is into those cities.

They'll eventually get it right, just like the Soviets did. They're ignoring the UN and international sanctions against them because they don't fucking care. The only way to get them to heel is a shock and awe campaign by the US or for China to literally put their foot down both militarily and economically, but even China starving them out could still lead to a desperation attack and escalation of the "hostage" situation with Seoul. They're essentially being given all the free time in the world to keep developing their technology and will eventually get it right. Every iteration that fails is testing data for the next attempt.

edit: That's why I still think Trump's escalation is too early and unneeded now. But how long exactly do we sit back and give them the chance to improve and how do we fix it when we get to that point without catastrophic losses? It's a question that not even our top government officials can answer right now despite the posturing from Trump. We would also need the greenlight from South Korea and arguably even Japan.

[Skroe]

Yup NK doesn't exactly even need modern level nuclear missiles like the US has. All they have to do is repeat 1950s Russia to get something capable of, even if not striking us, causing catastrophic damage to Japan. The US aren't the only target if Kim pushes the button despite some people thinking such. A missile fired into a Japanese metropolitan center or deployed via submarine to one is just as likely, if not more likely, than a first strike again the US and would do horrific amounts of damage given how centered the Japanese population is into those cities.

They'll eventually get it right, just like the Soviets did. They're ignoring the UN and international sanctions against them because they don't fucking care. The only way to get them to heel is a shock and awe campaign by the US or for China to literally put their foot down both militarily and economically, but even China starving them out could still lead to a desperation attack and escalation of the "hostage" situation with Seoul.

I dont think a US bombing short of regime change will do anything to deter them. I don't thin China trying to starve them out either.

The North Korean regime defines regime survival as paramount... truly, truly paramount. it will pay any cost for that. There is nothing we have they want. There is nothing we can do that will change their mind. They're building the one thing in the world they want: a means to prevent the US (or China) from killing them off in one fell stroke.

The way I see it we have two options.

(1) The US and friends do intervene and accept North Korea shooting the hostage as the cost of preventing a larger crisis in the future. It will be the largest war the US has fought in 60 years.

(2) The US and it's allies deploy a missile defense system that makes Reagan's Star Wars look tame. Of course the problem with this is if the US does such a thing, it will also defend against Russia's warheads, which will greatly upset the strategic balance with them and cause them to react.

So no good options.

[jace5869]

Starving them is only hurting innocent and/or poor of N.Korea. You're doing nothing to the evils of N. Korea.

It's sickening to think everyone ignores all those who never think of the people who are fearing for their lives and unable to act for fear of losing their entire family and future generations.

[jimboa24]

Your first line brought it up.

Yeah, because the guy I was quoting said "I'm just glad it did not lead to a nuclear exchange between China and the US." My point is that China is not going to go to nuclear war with the U.S. over North Korea. Even if it means that the buffer zone is gone, going to bat for lil Kim is not worth going to nuclear war with its number one trade partner and customer. It would do far more harm to its economy than frankly NK is worth. NK is a liability, and while China isn't going to launch nukes at NK, they also at this point won't lift a finger to save them if we end up going in because they keep on testing and launching missiles.

[Berengil]

But once China goes all-solids, that will change, because hitting 300 solid fueled missiles requires a much faster, more accurate, more syncronized attack.

The same is true for North Korea. Solids are game changing. Solids on a submarine are a nightmare. But North Korea going all-solids is the worst of all worlds

So if that were about to happen, the US would have choice but to launch a nuclear first strike, or submit to nuclear blackmail?

Why in the hell isn't China telling NK " Don't do this, or we won't protect you?"

A US first strike on NK would lead to a unified RoK, a refugee crisis that would overwhelm the Chinese northeast, and US troops on the Yalu river. Surely China doesn't want that.

[HumbleDuck]

Doesn't that happen like ... hmmm ... most of the time?

[Bullettime]

So if that were about to happen, the US would have choice but to launch a nuclear first strike, or submit to nuclear blackmail?

Why in the hell isn't China telling NK " Don't do this, or we won't protect you?"

A US first strike on NK would lead to a unified RoK, a refugee crisis that would overwhelm the Chinese northeast, and US troops on the Yalu river. Surely China doesn't want that.

They already are telling NK that. China stopped purchasing NK coal which has devastated what little sense of an economy they had over the situation and spoke up in the past few days multiple times about how they will not be defending NK if they're attacked as a result of their actions hoping to get them to back down.

China doesn't want the war anymore than we do, just for different reasons.

[Tijuana]

They already are telling NK that. China stopped purchasing NK coal which has devastated what little sense of an economy they had over the situation and spoke up in the past few days multiple times about how they will not be defending NK if they're attacked as a result of their actions hoping to get them to back down.

China doesn't want the war anymore than we do, just for different reasons.

If we somehow could get the entire world to commit to the sanctions, I don't see how Best Korea can continue with the nuclear program. They can't make everything, and it doesn't seem like they are able to grow enough food for all their people.

[Bullettime]

If we somehow could get the entire world to commit to the sanctions, I don't see how Best Korea can continue with the nuclear program. They can't make everything, and it doesn't seem like they are able to grow enough food for all their people.

Sadly not everyone will and getting others to commit to it would require even bigger clusterfucks. China is cutting off NK right now on coal but that doesn't stop countries like Iran from continuing business with them enough to keep the projects going. When money is tight, it's the people who starve before the rich, the military, and their scientists.

[Tijuana]

Sadly not everyone will and getting others to commit to it would require even bigger clusterfucks. China is cutting off NK right now on coal but that doesn't stop countries like Iran from continuing business with them enough to keep the projects going. When money is tight, it's the people who starve before the rich, the military, and their scientists.

I think we should apply matching sanctions to any nation that doesn't honor them. Iran obviously will continue because they know the day Best Korea masters it, they will sell the tech to them.

[Manabomb]

inb4 "fakenews"