Jon Ossoff competing in Georgia's 6th district

[cubby]

Hah. overwhelming landslide my ass.

For reference, the guy who posted this said it was a landslide victory... with 3% of the vote reported.

Technically, his numbers were overwhelming landslide-ish. Just the rules of that state make the top two run-off, if one doesn't get 50%+1.

[Barnabas]

He didn't reach the 50% threshold so its not over yet. His speech sounded like he is running for president lol.

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Ossoff spent over $8,000,000 on a seat that Democrats normally allocate $10,000 and still couldn't win a majority against highly fragmented opposition. Wow.

The outside money also drew attention. If it was done quietly he wouldn't be in a runoff. It helped and hurt him.

[ohiostate124]

He didn't reach the 50% threshold so its not over yet. His speech sounded like he is running for president lol.

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The outside money also drew attention. If it was done quietly he wouldn't be in a runoff. It helped and hurt him.

I honestly expected him to win outright after seeing all this media buzz he was getting. I don't live anywhere near Georgia but I knew who he was. Didn't know the names of any of the other candidates.

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How so? Dems don't think care for "color or sex" as much as you do. They are voting for a candidate.

The left doesn't care about identity politics? I'll take your word for it.

[Daelak]

Hah. overwhelming landslide my ass.

For reference, the guy who posted this said it was a landslide victory... with 3% of the vote reported.

Look at his percentage versus the percentage of the next person. Now subtract them. What's the difference?

[Cthulhu 2020]

millions of dollars and names like Samuel L. Jackson, Chelsea Handler, John Leguizamo, and George Takei couldn't get them a win. it's a disaster alright, but not for the republicans

Yeah, a whole 8 million dollars funneled into Ossoff?

And what was it, a total of 14 million spread across roughly 5 other major Republican candidates for the purpose of defeating him. He got the most money of any ONE candidate in this race, but Republicans by far outspent Democrats trying to ensure he didn't win this special election. But at 48% as the first election count, things aren't looking too bright for Republicans.

[Daelak]

Yeah, a whole 8 million dollars funneled into Ossoff?

And what was it, a total of 14 million spread across roughly 5 other major Republican candidates for the purpose of defeating him. He got the most money of any ONE candidate in this race, but Republicans by far outspent Democrats trying to ensure he didn't win this special election. But at 48% as the first election count, things aren't looking too bright for Republicans.

Lol republicans spending 14 million in a 'safe' seat.

[Berengil]

Lol republicans spending 14 million in a 'safe' seat.

yeah they seem to pass over this tidbit. GOP had to fight him like all hell.

[ohiostate124]

Look at his percentage versus the percentage of the next person. Now subtract them. What's the difference?

The difference is that 11 republican candidates split the votes while ossoff was the only real democratic candidate. The other 3 democrats each had something like .26% of the vote and down.

[Daelak]

The difference is that 11 republican candidates split the votes while ossoff was the only real democratic candidate. The other 3 democrats each had something like .26% of the vote and down.

Why don't you call the other 10 republican candidates the "real" republican candidate?

[alexw]

Republicans seem to be of the opinion that this will be a guaranteed win in June.

I think its utterly unpredictable at this point. Republicans might coalesce, their candidate might prove herself lacking (she's ran in multiple other elections in the past and lost them all), Trump might tank her chances, or he might get a policy win and boost them. Either way I think its going to be very close which doesn't augur well for republicans. They SHOULD be winning this district with little effort. If a district that they won by 23 points in Nov is now a toss-up what does that say about about all the districts they've gerrymandered to give a 5-10 point win in national elections? Given that this is what they have aimed for to maximize their political strength in the house, there is a huge number of them.

[ohiostate124]

Why don't you call the other 10 republican candidates the "real" republican candidate?

Point is, the democrats rallied behind one candidate while the republicans did not. Now they have a couple months to learn from this wake up call and rally.

[Ghostpanther]

The difference is that 11 republican candidates split the votes while ossoff was the only real democratic candidate. The other 3 democrats each had something like .26% of the vote and down.

Yep. It was a good day for the democrats, no question there. But they may be celebrating too early. It was also good for the GOP, as now they understand there is no guarantee victory for them in that district and they need to work hard until June 20th. A wake up call can be a good thing. I think the odds are still against him to win there. But he may pull it off. Upset victories are not that uncommon in politics.

[augustopinochet]

Pretty bad day for the Democrats. If you look at the facts, Dems spent $8million and the Republicans got +1 percent over what they got in the Presidential Election. Not sure how it could go worse, than losing by a larger % of the vote, and spending a lot of money doing it.

It is just like the Presidential Election, Hillary spent 63% more per electoral vote and still lost.

[stabetha]

Point is, the democrats rallied behind one candidate while the republicans did not. Now they have a couple months to learn from this wake up call and rally.

but as we have learned they won't they somehow think there losses are all someone else's fault.

[Cthulhu 2020]

I think its utterly unpredictable at this point. Republicans might coalesce, their candidate might prove herself lacking (she's ran in multiple other elections in the past and lost them all), Trump might tank her chances, or he might get a policy win and boost them. Either way I think its going to be very close which doesn't augur well for republicans. They SHOULD be winning this district with little effort. If a district that they won by 23 points in Nov is now a toss-up what does that say about about all the districts they've gerrymandered to give a 5-10 point win in national elections? Given that this is what they have aimed for to maximize their political strength in the house, there is a huge number of them.

This is what endangers them the most, in special elections Democrats have been 10-15 points ahead of what they normally poll in those districts. Even with other losses, and even if Ossoff loses in June, this still spells danger for - as you said - the number gerrymandered districts that have been manufactured for Republicans to have a 5-10 point lead.

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but as we have learned they won't they somehow think there losses are all someone else's fault.

Seems Democrats learned from the great Republican crying of 2008.

You're throwing stones in a glass house there.

[Garnier Fructis]

Can't he still win in the run-off?
As extremist as the repubs are, I can a bunch of them not voting for a Woman.

If you just simply shift all the democrat votes to Ossoff and all the Republican votes to Handel, he comes up short. So it really depends on whether or not he can convince just enough Republicans to switch sides between now and June.

Correct me if im wrong, but what I get from this thread, that seat has always been held by really conservative folk, right?
That'd be like if a progressive/non-conservative party won the local elections in Urk(our most religious town/village) or hell.. even if they got 1 single seat[in Urk] it'd be a huge upset.

That's pretty much what this is like.

Well..... considering they still haven't won anything new I'd guess 0 at this rate. Close loses are nice and all but they are still loses

This is exactly the sort of mentality that I hope Republicans hold between now and 2018.

[Cthulhu 2020]

If you just simply shift all the democrat votes to Ossoff and all the Republican votes to Handel, he comes up short. So it really depends on whether or not he can convince just enough Republicans to switch sides between now and June.

I think it's safe to say he'll get his own voter base in the runoff. Thing is, can the Republican runner up get all of the votes from the other Republican candidates? I live and work in the deep south, and their traditionalist mentalities from the mid 20th century are still firmly in place in some parts of the state. The idea that women can't be in leadership roles, and should be homemakers, is still pretty prevalent in rural parts of the state, thus why many of these districts have never fielded a woman - ever, and the ones that did, the female candidate always did extremely poorly

As I said earlier in the thread, we'll have to see if that mentality has waned enough, and if those who still hold it believe Republican woman > Democrat man.

Note the District 6 is Newt Gingrich's old turf and well, we all know how Newt feels about women.

[Dragon Claws]

He won't win.

[Mormolyce]

You can't "win with runoff". That sentence is literal gibberish.

Trump doesn't know how the electoral process works, take #100.

He won't win.

Nobody here knows that. You would have to know how preferences were distributed to the least popular candidates to work it out.

[jdbond592]

Point is, the democrats rallied behind one candidate while the republicans did not. Now they have a couple months to learn from this wake up call and rally.

They can only split republican votes, am I right? So by just counting republican and democrat votes, this guy could get 49% votes in runoff and lose the election by "whopping" 2 points. I am going to assume republicans don't win this narrowly?

I wonder what people think money does? Are people being paid to vote? I somehow doubt hick America will ever vote for a democrat and they likely are majority in this district?