Mafia 83: Up Sh** Creek!

[dupti]

I said I didn't know who I want to lynch yet, I just said it's going to be one of you, which is why I'd like to hear from all of you.

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But alright now I'm curious, who do you want to lynch Celtic?

[Deleted]

I said I didn't know who I want to lynch yet, I just said it's going to be one of you, which is why I'd like to hear from all of you.

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But alright now I'm curious, who do you want to lynch Celtic?

Probably a toss up between Monkz and Danner at the moment.

[Kryllian]

Under 10 hours to go and Danner still hasn't shown. This is not like him and I can't help but wonder if he isn't baiting us into lynching him as a Wincon like the Disco Ball.

[Largehorn]

Under 10 hours to go and Danner still hasn't shown. This is not like him and I can't help but wonder if he isn't baiting us into lynching him as a Wincon like the Disco Ball.

Danner hasn't posted at all today yeah? So this leaves us in very interesting situation. Do we try and leave it to the mod removal which Danner can prevent with a single post before the deadline or do we risk "wasting" a lynch?

[Marack]

Danner hasn't posted at all today yeah? So this leaves us in very interesting situation. Do we try and leave it to the mod removal which Danner can prevent with a single post before the deadline or do we risk "wasting" a lynch?

Not only that, but it could be a single post in his QT.

Vote Danner
Danner not playing the same we all expect. Baiting a vote or away, not helping town and not here.

[Crissi]

Vote Danner

Stuff just doesn't feel right. Not the usual town Danner. Just kinda... there. Still think he's the lynch pin in listos lynch and one of the most likely to use listos as easy lynch for scum.

Also sorry I've been not as active this s game day. Job interviews and prepping for them, yay. Don't know if I'll be back again before deadline.

[dupti]

If we don't lynch Danner and he survives, he is pretty much confirmed scum.

I honestly think this wagon feels a bit weird. Would probably rather lynch Marack or Celtic at this point.

[Crissi]

I don't mind moving if that's how we wanna go. I haven't had the time recently to really look at things so I just went with my gut. I'm not really getting any feeling from Celtic but Marack is in the same boat as Danner imo.

[Monkz]

I'm up for lynching Danner, as per my 'read' list.

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Forgot to vote >.<

Unvote
Vote: Danner

[dupti]

That wagon looks terrible.

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Uh whatever,

Vote Marack

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@Kryllian, @Largehorn, what do you want to do?

[Kryllian]

My vote is currently on Celtic. Obviously he won't vote for himself more likely Danner as he's already voted for him twice.

Danner is currently L-2. Assuming Celtic goes for him that makes him L-1.

Why Marack? What are you seeing that I'm not? You mention some interactions about agreeing with Graeham being called out earlier but I can't find that post. Can you point me in the direction of what you're thinking?

[dupti]

I'll get to it when I get home, but why do you think he is town?

[Kryllian]

I don't have a read on Marack either way which is why I want to know your thought process since you seem to feel he's the best option.

[dupti]

Alright actually I'm just going to go over my reads.

[Marack]

Since there will be inevitable pressure on me here soon...

Im a Drunk. Not the heckler type, but essentially the drunk thats half assed out in the corner of the bar that pays attention to any/everything (appears im shitty at this too)

I have 2 passive abilities
-I may hear something at night (a random night action from anyone) but the results may be wrong
-I can intoxicate people that visit may, which will skew their results

I havent heard anything any of the 3 nights. I could attribute N1/N2 to the mass RB. No idea why I didnt get anything last night.

I win with town.

[dupti]

So Kryllian, while I think your play has been pretty scummy I don't think you're ever scum (or at least not mafia with) because of your claim + Arindel's flip. I don't have a good read on Arindel obviously, but I don't think she would've bussed you like that. It's possible you are third party, but I see no reason for me to live in that world. If you are third party you have no interest in siding with town, so in that case it's probably already lost, so I'm just going to consider you to be town.

I think Largehorn is most likely town as well for the same reason as you, I don't think Arindel (at least that is the impression I get) would bus you. Kryllian has also suggested that your night action seems town which helps as well. Not sure what to think of the whole poison thing though.

Crissi is a bit of a difficult read of mine. I've used the same read on her twice in a row, where I town read her because my thoughts was that she was an inexperienced player that contributed to the game, which I thought was more likely to come from town, so I can't really read her that well yet. I do however think she is town based on her counterclaim, I see no reason for her as scum to counterclaim Monkz there. It is possible she is some sort of mafia doctor, but I still don't see why she would counterclaim at that point. Palawin thought she might be scumbuddies with Arindel and given Arindels flip I can't really rule it out as a possibility, and considering I've read her wrong two games I can't trust my read too much, but I'll definitely treat her as town right now.

So I think Crissi, Kryllian and Largehorn are town.

So that leaves me with Celtic, Danner, Marack and Monkz.

I've already talked about Celtic. He hasn't really done much this game and certainly not anything I would consider alignment indicative. I don't have a read on him at all.

As for Danner he has played a super weird game. I called it out yesterday that I thought it was weird how he somehow just chose to ignore me this game. Usually I ping him out very early and he has to respond, but this game I didn't. Actually I kind of didn't do anything at all, so I was rather surprised that he did not call me out. It gave me the impression he tried to lay low, which I think is rather suspicious, which was why I pushed on him yesterday. I kind of liked his posts since he actually showed that he had been paying attention to the game, yet I disliked the fact that he showed no interest in pursuing his reads but would rather just go for a "random shot" on Celtic. I thought that was super weird, but Danner has done stuff like that as town before which was why I wanted to give him another day.

As for Marack, I think his play has been very suspicious. D1 Graeham called me and listos votes suspicious and I asked why and his answer did not make any sense whatsoever, but for some reason Marack just seconded the read. I explained why the logic did not make sense and for some reason Marack tried to call me out for it. I thought that was a bit weird so I challenged him to explain how exactly why I was wrong. At that point he just tried to use Graeham's logic again, tried to make a subtle push on me for 'Graeham disagreeing with me' etc. So basically he used flawed logic that I had already proved was wrong to push on me. He also tried to use the 'he claimed SK', which I also called out because he has no reason to believe that is a scumtell when I've done it way more as town than scum. It's not alignment indicative.
Overall his push just seemed really lazy and it felt like he was just hiding behind the fact that I argued with Graeham, who was now confirmed town.

And Monkz, well I still don't know what to make of him. His claim sounded very believable at the time of the claim, simply because of the name of his role. Arindel's flip does however make me question his alignment. Arindel was very wishy washy and it seemed like she was trying to push town away from Monkz by pushing the whole "town is already down 1 important tpr" etc. It's possible she was just trying to keep her options open, but it felt very awkward to me.
Also this is a selfish read, but the fact that Monkz is not town reading me is actually bothering me. I mean from his point of view as town, he knows that I saw Crissi's counterclaim, so if I was scum, why would I not put Crissi's cc on the spot and use it to mislynch Monkz?
Actually screw that, how about looking at what I actually did. I defended Monkz claim when Crissi was pushing. Crissi kept saying "unless crackle is a bastard" to which I replied that given listo's role it is fair to assume that this is probably a bastard game and asked her if that changed anything for her. I also did not put Crissi on the spot for cc'ing, simply because I thought it is possible both of them could be docs but if not, I'd just like to see what would happen during the night. Why would I do that as a scum? The obvious answer for everyone else is that I could be scumbuddies with Monkz, but from his point of view that is never the case.

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Since there will be inevitable pressure on me here soon...

Im a Drunk. Not the heckler type, but essentially the drunk thats half assed out in the corner of the bar that pays attention to any/everything (appears im shitty at this too)

I have 2 passive abilities
-I may hear something at night (a random night action from anyone) but the results may be wrong
-I can intoxicate people that visit may, which will skew their results

I havent heard anything any of the 3 nights. I could attribute N1/N2 to the mass RB. No idea why I didnt get anything last night.

I win with town.

Hm, I kind of believe the role claim actually. Not entirely sure I believe you are town though but meh.

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Unvote

For now.

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So yeah anyway, just to continue.

The way I see it, we either have 1 or 2 mafia(s) remaining. I'm more inclined to believe there are 2 left, but given the poison I obviously can't be sure. I'm leaning towards us having 2 more mafias, just because I think it makes more sense.

So keeping my reads in mind, that means there'd have to be 2 mafias in Celtic, Danner, Marack and Monkz.

I can elaborate, but this is basically the possible teams I can see:

Celtic can be with:
Monkz
Marack
Danner

Danner can be with:
Monkz
Celtic

Marack can be with:
Celtic

Monkz can be with:
Danner
Celtic

I think Celtic can be with anyone at this point. I do however think it is unlikely he is with Danner, because that would mean they hardbussed all game. I can however not rule it out as a possibility, because I could actually see them do it. Still, unlikely.
I do not think Danner and Marack are ever together. (vote today, no reason to bus)
I also do not believe Marack is with Monkz (voted on him d2). I just don't think Marack would've bussed at that point.
As for Monkz, he likes to bus. I don't think his vote on Danner today means anything for their alignment.

I could be wrong on my town reads, I do however still not believe Kryllian is ever with Arindel and I think it is unlikely that Largehorn is. If I am wrong on one, I think it is most likely Crissi (but I think she is town).

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Meh I'm not sure I'll be back before deadline.

Vote Celtic

Don't have a read on you, but you fit into most of the possible teams I can see. One of my town reads could be wrong but hopefully that isn't the case. If you flip town, then I'm inclined to believe Marack is town as well, but definitely not a guarantee as it is still a possibility we only have 1 mafia left. Not a world I'm about to lvie in today though.

[Monkz]

bla bla Monkz could be scum bla bla

[Kryllian]

Under two hours and no votes yet from @Celtic209, @Danner, or @Largehorn. That makes it impossible to get a lynch unless the five of us who have voted agree on either Celtic or Danner. We are split 2 to 3 right now.

I'm not going to be up much longer but if anyone is around let me know.

[Marack]

Im willing to vote either way. Not sure if dupti will be back on before deadline, so i'd count his vote on celtic.

[Crissi]

Im here. Im willing to switch to ensure a lynch

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Although without Monkz thats impossible