If Le Pen Wins

[Acidbaron]

Email leaks on the scale of the DNC leaks have been leaked.. A lot of shady stuff in them so far..

Russia trying the same fake tricks again? Even if he murdered a man, he would still be a better choice than the kremlin sell out of a le penn, nothing worse than a nationalist claiming to have the best interest at hearth while selling herself out to a foreign enemy to grab power and i'm saying this as a conservative.

Let's not even talk about the political plans, merely playing on the immigrant fear treating everyone like a retard selling them you can solve all national problems by dealing with brown people.

[JohnBrown1917]

Russia trying the same fake tricks again? Even if he murdered a man, he would still be a better choice than the kremlin sell out of a le penn, nothing worse than a nationalist claiming to have the best interest at hearth while selling herself out to a foreign enemy to grab power and i'm saying this as a conservative.

Let's not even talk about the political plans, merely playing on the immigrant fear treating everyone like a retard selling them you can solve all national problems by dealing with brown people.

Seems to be a group of alt-reichers who did it, not Putin's personal cock cleaners.

[ohiostate124]

Russia trying the same fake tricks again? Even if he murdered a man, he would still be a better choice than the kremlin sell out of a le penn, nothing worse than a nationalist claiming to have the best interest at hearth while selling herself out to a foreign enemy to grab power and i'm saying this as a conservative.

Let's not even talk about the political plans, merely playing on the immigrant fear treating everyone like a retard selling them you can solve all national problems by dealing with brown people.

I wonder if there is any proof of collusion between Le Pen and the Russians. Somehow, I doubt it.

[btorz]

Russia trying the same fake tricks again? Even if he murdered a man, he would still be a better choice than the kremlin sell out of a le penn, nothing worse than a nationalist claiming to have the best interest at hearth while selling herself out to a foreign enemy to grab power and i'm saying this as a conservative.

Let's not even talk about the political plans, merely playing on the immigrant fear treating everyone like a retard selling them you can solve all national problems by dealing with brown people.

if you are referring to the russian bank loan it's because french banks refused to fund her, so they were openly discriminating against someone because of their political opinion.

[Deleted]

Hopefully.

Either France is finished, or the EU. If it's France, I won't complain - it's their choice. And actually I would be quite glad in either case, but I was expecting Sweden to go first.
Well, if Macron wins, France will be an example for other nations what NOT to do.

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What is the deal with all the candidates in this election running under these fake parties that exist only to promote one person? Is Macron's party even putting up any candidates for the assembly election?

FN is not just one person. Macron's party is. It was registered soon before elections.

[Acidbaron]

I wonder if there is any proof of collusion between Le Pen and the Russians. Somehow, I doubt it.

You mean besides the campaign funds? The same type of attack adds with leaks? Or maybe that She fully agrees with everything on foreign politics what Putin says?

Opposing all sanctions, fully agree with the crimea annexation, fully agrees and supports Bashir's actions in his country? Want proof watch the news.

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if you are referring to the russian bank loan it's because french banks refused to fund her, so they were openly discriminating against someone because of their political opinion.

That's just one drop in sea of many things, she openly agrees with the Kremlin if that doesn't raise alarm bells then i don't know what will.

Anyone who goes through the lengths she did is an enemy to your own liberty and freedom in europe, she gets the same treatment any far right does trying to become important by sucking off Putin. It's amusing since those freedoms they claim to hate so much by supporting the Kremlin are the same freedoms and rights that prevented such individuals from being hanged, since that's what we did with such people a few decades ago.

[btorz]

You mean besides the campaign funds? The same type of attack adds with leaks? Or maybe that She fully agrees with everything on foreign politics what Putin says?

Opposing all sanctions, fully agree with the crimea annexation, fully agrees and supports Bashir's actions in his country? Want proof watch the news.

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That's just one drop in sea of many things, she openly agrees with the Kremlin if that doesn't raise alarm bells then i don't know what will.

Anyone who goes through the lengths she did is an enemy to your own liberty and freedom in europe, she gets the same treatment any far right does trying to become important by sucking off Putin. It's amusing since those freedoms they claim to hate so much by supporting the Kremlin are the same freedoms and rights that prevented such individuals from being hanged, since that's what we did with such people a few decades ago.

you don't even have free speech in europe so i don't know why you think there's liberty and democracy, like i said you have a political candidate unable to get funding because of discrimination, that isn't democracy or liberty.

[Deleted]

Would be funny if the reactions are aggressive. If she turns out to just be moderate - very boring.

[Brubear]

Found this to be interesting.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features.../?ex_cid=538fb

Donald Trump was just a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton on the eve of the 2016 presidential election. The far-right National Front candidate in France, Marine Le Pen, by contrast, is an enormous, historic polling error behind the centrist En Marche! candidate Emmanuel Macron.

Macron won the first round of the French presidential election in April, 24 percent to 21 percent, and as expected, he has consolidated most of the support that went to candidates who did not make the runoff. Now, he heads into the runoff on Sunday with a huge lead over Le Pen. In an average of surveys conducted over the last two weeks, Macron has earned 61 percent to Le Pen’s 39 percent.

To win, Le Pen needs the polls to be way off. That’s possible. Clinton, for example, led Bernie Sanders in polls of the Michigan Democratic primary by 21 percentage points before Sanders’s shocking win there. But that upset was one of the biggest in U.S. presidential primary history. Polling misses of that magnitude don’t happen very often.

French presidential election polls in the runoff round have been fairly accurate over the past 50 years. In elections since 1969,1 an average of polls over the final two weeks of the runoff campaign (i.e., polls taken after the first round) has never been off by more than 8.4 percentage points.

MARGIN BETWEEN RUNOFF CANDIDATES
YEAR TWO WEEKS BEFORE ELECTION ACTUAL RESULT GAP
2012 +7.1 +3.3 3.8
2007 +6.2 +6.1 0.1
2002 +56.0 +64.4 8.4
1995 +8.0 +5.3 2.7
1988 +10.0 +8.0 2.0
1981 -4.0 +3.5 7.5
1974 +2.8 +1.6 1.1
1969 +11.0 +16.4 5.4
Average 3.9
French presidential runoff polls are fairly accurate
SOURCES: WILL JENNINGS AND CHRISTOPHER WLEZIEN, G. ELLIOTT MORRIS

The average error has been 3.9 percentage points, according to data collected by political scientists Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien and aggregated by The Crosstab’s G. Elliott Morris. That means Le Pen needs an error of over five times the average in order to win. Now, we only have polling for the eight previous French presidential elections, so the average error may understate the possibility of a massive polling miss in France. Even taking into account the small sample size, though, the true margin of error in French polls is probably somewhere between 10 and 12 percentage points in either direction.

Le Pen’s situation is far different than Trump’s was in November 2016. Clinton was ahead of Trump in national polls by about 4 percentage points in the final FiveThirtyEight adjusted polling average. The national polls in the U.S. ended up being off by only 2 percentage points, or equal to the average error in previous presidential campaigns over the past 50 years. State polling was slightly worse, but even in the biggest shocker (Wisconsin), the polling average was off by 6 points. A polling miss of that magnitude in France would still result in an easy win for Macron.

But perhaps the biggest difference between the French campaign and the U.S. race is that there has never been a sign that a plurality of voters could be persuaded to vote for Le Pen in the runoff. Macron’s advantage over Le Pen has been fairly steady over the course of the year. Macron’s current lead, 22 percentage points, is well within the range of his average, 20 to 30 points, since January. In the U.S., Trump closed to within a couple percentage points of Clinton on a number of occasions. That showed that in the right moment he could come close to if not beat Clinton.


When Trump closed the gap on Clinton after the “Comey Letter” late in the campaign, for instance, he was probably winning back a number of voters who had favored him before. Le Pen would likely need to win over voters who have never previously thought of voting for her (and even that might not be enough).

Indeed, Le Pen’s best shot is probably a combination of two polling mistakes or more. First, she needs the polls to be overestimating how many people will turn out — there needs to be a large number of deliberate abstentions (people casting a blank or spoiled ballot) or people not voting at all. Anywhere from 20 to 40 percent of the people initially supporting the other major candidates in round one have said they will not cast a ballot for Le Pen or Macron in round two. If that percentage went up dramatically, it would likely benefit Le Pen because most of the supporters for the other round one candidates are backing Macron. Second, Le Pen would need some unforeseen shift in preferences from Macron to herself. Voters telling pollsters they’re backing Macron will need to cast a ballot for Le Pen instead. (No such error occurred in the first round.)

If both of these types of errors occurred, it’s conceivable Le Pen could pull off a shocking victory. It took a similar multitude of polling errors in Michigan for Sanders to win. Much more likely, the polls are going to be at least somewhat close to the truth and Macron will be the next president of France.

[Deleted]

Like, let me make something clear, y'all pissed at Germany's dominance of the EU right now? Think, just think, what happens when the most powerful economy on the continent no longer has to give a shit about the benefits of other nations.

They never actually cared. There are no benefits for other countries. We cover 80% of Eurofonds by ourselves, without deciding where they go - and they will be gone soon. The EU (that one that likes to talk about solidarity) gained access to our markets. Our agriculture was decimated. We were told what we can and can not export.

So fuck this kind of "benefits".

[Acidbaron]

you don't even have free speech in europe so i don't know why you think there's liberty and democracy, like i said you have a political candidate unable to get funding because of discrimination, that isn't democracy or liberty.

Discrimination against minorities baked in due to events like the holocaust. There is freedom of speech, there is not freedom of hatespeech read and learn or laws if you want to proclaim to know these things or stick to one liners trying to come across witty.

A bank is an industry build on trust and good judgement, despite if we dig deeper we all know they deal in blood money. However the Nazi sympathizer tag is not something anyone wants to carry on their industry, since regardless how the bank feels it would negatively effect their business, nothing to do with politics all business. But America has the luxury to never had to suffer a big war on their soil, occupation on your soil, so this idea that you guys would lend money to just about anyone since the lack of a background since you were spared one of the ugliest periods in recent times on your own ground at least it is understandable.

It is even so that you like to bring this freedom of speech up in the light of this election, there is something called a "cordon sanitair" it means to muzzle a party, to silence their voice by refusing not just working with them but talking to them, something that happened in former elections do you know that this time around it didn't happen and the opposing candidate even openly went into debate of them despite plenty believing such parties should not be given the time of day.

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Would be funny if the reactions are aggressive. If she turns out to just me moderate - very boring.

The election that comes after this does not allow her to be moderate without being ripped to shreds by her own base.

[Deleted]

The election that comes after this does not allow her to be moderate without being ripped to shreds by her own base.

The only one that has ever broken moderate government was Hitler. The rest was moderate and not interesting.

[ItsRainingMetal]

Do you think the EU is gone, then?

One can only hope.

If she does, it's steak for dinner.

[Mayhem]

you don't even have free speech in europe so i don't know why you think there's liberty and democracy, like i said you have a political candidate unable to get funding because of discrimination, that isn't democracy or liberty.

Yeah, we're all stalinists in europe.

[Masark]

I hope Le Pen wins.

MFGA

Make France German Again?

[Triks]

you don't even have free speech in europe so i don't know why you think there's liberty and democracy, like i said you have a political candidate unable to get funding because of discrimination, that isn't democracy or liberty.

If we didn't have freedom of speech, do you think she would have been allowed to run in the elections? Do you think we would allow people like Faradge in the European parliament? Do you think we would ever allow the existence of anti-EU parties? Do you think we would have ratified Brexit?

The banks don't lend her money because it's bad for their corporate image amongst other things like her not passing basic due-diligence.

[Theinquisition]

Make France German Again?

That legit made me laugh, thank you.