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  1. #201
    Herald of the Titans Berengil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post

    No Germany wasn't to blame. A Geopolitical nightmare plus prideful generals looking for a good scrap were to blame, plus a terrorist group funded by the highest levels of Serbian government.
    Or the Kaiser could have ordered demobilization, fired any general who refused, told Franz Josef "you're on your own", and released a statement in the international press and on the radio that Germany was "absolutely neutral in the Balkan dispute. Austria-Hungary's fate is its own affair."

    In such a case, a friendless and isolated A-H would have agreed to Serbia's acceptance of 9 out of 10 of their demands, and that would have been that.

    EDIT: got the number of demands in A-H ultimatum wrong
    Last edited by Berengil; 2017-05-29 at 10:06 AM.
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  2. #202
    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenblade View Post
    It is equally impossible to prove that two divided Germanys would make a hell of a difference. If any the natural convergence on issues due to very close cultural bonds would still create similar issues. That the Hartz 4 reforms did make a lot of impact especially on wage policies and the gap between haves and have-nots that I agree on however I think it stems from two issues: The continent watched closely and expected a lot of the newly unified Germany, it was called the sick man of Europe for not properly taking its leading economic role dragging the whole continent down with it. Schröder picked up where Kohl left, that out of all a socialdemocrat chancellor had to the job of a conservative one gave the socialdemocrat party a heavy blow in credibility which still echoes on and is one of the reasons why parties like the AfD now thrive happily. I am quite happy to agree on that, however Germany had to agree on the introduction of the Euro has currency in exchange for getting a Oui! from France for the reunification. Socialists like Gregor Gysi in Germany argued in the 1990s that you can never unify a continent via money but since the treaties were already made what other choice did Schröder have than to commit to it when he came to power?
    My issue with the German handling of the European Union is not that they should have backed out at the onset of of the Union's formation, but that German politicians refuse to acknowledge reality: Germany is the hegemon of the European Union, and frankly of the Continent as well. Those politicians' fears of being labelled a Nazi for engaging in traditional power politics, and their outright refusal to engage militarily without a multilateral force, are allowing serious security issues to develop along peripheral Europe. This trend has been ongoing for a while, though Germany was not always in a position to affect change: Bosnia in 1993, Kosovo in 1998, the Ukrainian revolution in the early 2000s, the South Ossetia War in 2008, and the invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

    Europeans, especially Europeans from France, Britain, and Germany, tend to dismiss those cases as not representative. That remains to be seen, but it's not an unreasonable assertion to suggest that military problems would pose less danger to the European peninsula if there were a regional power willing to assert itself in defense of those cherished post-Nazi ideals Germany's been going on about since 1950. Part of standing up for those ideals necessarily entails the creation of a unified fiscal and defense policy.

  3. #203
    Herald of the Titans Berengil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Medium9 View Post
    Except that this isn't how alliances and treaties work. If they did, no one would ever bother with them. Pretty flowery delusion you paint there.
    I understand that they were allies at the time. What I'm saying is that Wilhelm might have chosen to exercise just a bit of good judgement and realize that getting involved in "some damned fool thing in the Balkans" (to use Bismarck's phrase) was not in Germany's best interest, and that the alliance to A-H was useless.

    As Bethman-Hollweg said to Wilhelm on the eve of war " Sire, we are allied to a corpse."
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  4. #204
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadiru View Post
    My issue with the German handling of the European Union is not that they should have backed out at the onset of of the Union's formation, but that German politicians refuse to acknowledge reality: Germany is the hegemon of the European Union, and frankly of the Continent as well. Those politicians' fears of being labelled a Nazi for engaging in traditional power politics, and their outright refusal to engage militarily without a multilateral force, are allowing serious security issues to develop along peripheral Europe. This trend has been ongoing for a while, though Germany was not always in a position to affect change: Bosnia in 1993, Kosovo in 1998, the Ukrainian revolution in the early 2000s, the South Ossetia War in 2008, and the invasion of Ukraine in 2014.

    Europeans, especially Europeans from France, Britain, and Germany, tend to dismiss those cases as not representative. That remains to be seen, but it's not an unreasonable assertion to suggest that military problems would pose less danger to the European peninsula if there were a regional power willing to assert itself in defense of those cherished post-Nazi ideals Germany's been going on about since 1950. Part of standing up for those ideals necessarily entails the creation of a unified fiscal and defense policy.
    I'm glad you bring that up, because first reports are appearing that this is exactly what Merkel is intending to do. Sending around our defense minister to get the EU to work closer together militarily and start considering a common fiscal policy for the EU, including a common finance minister and all the budgetary things that idea brings with them.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Berengil View Post
    I understand that they were allies at the time. What I'm saying is that Wilhelm might have chosen to exercise just a bit of good judgement and realize that getting involved in "some damned fool thing in the Balkans" (to use Bismarck's phrase) was not in Germany's best interest, and that the alliance to A-H was useless.

    As Bethman-Hollweg said to Wilhelm on the eve of war " Sire, we are allied to a corpse."
    I'm sure had he known the xtent of the consequences, he'd have agreed. Sometimes, someone has to be the idiot to make the mistake.
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  5. #205
    Quote Originally Posted by Arunu View Post
    How about no, pick up a non MAGA history book will you ? how about not downplaying everybody's efforts and spout the baseless tripe it was all you.

    the USA was pre dominantly active in the pacific theater, when you noticed Russia was finally kicking Germany's behind after years of losing did you start looking upon Europe.
    I do not mean to downplay the USA's role, it was big and we probably would have fought for many more years without them but don't dismiss everybody else and claim it was all you, it wasn't, not even close.
    It cannot be overstated how important US shipments of weaponry, industrial equipment, and supplies were to the Soviet Union when they began to arrive. Without them, Moscow would've fallen and the Soviets along with it. The relocation of the Soviet industrial base would have never been managed without the arrival of Studebaker trucks, a truck which the Soviets were so impressed with, they adopted its design as a general purpose off-road, all-weather truck into the ZiL-157. And that was merely on the Soviet side of things. For the rest of the Allies, the US sent all manner of foodstuffs and armaments over in ships; the US sent over so much food to Europe that they imposed rationing on the US citizenry. During that period the US food production industries invented what is now derided as "fake food" just so people could eat something; things like Spam and Kraft processed cheeses. To say that the US "didn't look at Europe" is as atrocious a reading of WWII history as "America did everything fuck all y'all."

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    I'm glad you bring that up, because first reports are appearing that this is exactly what Merkel is intending to do. Sending around our defense minister to get the EU to work closer together militarily and start considering a common fiscal policy for the EU, including a common finance minister and all the budgetary things that idea brings with them.
    I'm sure Merkel intends to do just that; speak with experts to see what needs to be done. I expect Merkel won't much like the answer, especially on the financial side. Creditors will have to take large haircuts on government debt from the southern European countries, especially Greece. That won't fly in a psuedo-confederacy like the EU because it'll appear that Greece "beat" Germany, which in fairness is an accurate reading of the situation.

  6. #206
    I am Murloc! Ravenblade's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Berengil View Post
    Or the Kaiser could have ordered demobilization, fired any general who refused, told Franz Josef "you're on your own", and released a statement in the international press and on the radio that Germany was "absolutely neutral in the Balkan dispute. Austria-Hungary's fate is its own affair."

    In such a case, a friendless and isolated A-H would have agreed to Serbia's acceptance of 13 out of 14 of their demands, and that would have been that.
    Well, the Kaiser was known to be of a different mindset than his father. In fact he was even at odds with Bismarck over the question of how to treat the worker class (surprisingly Wilhelm II. had socialist tendencies which Bismarck rejected as humanitarian sentimentalism), politically he was very ambitious and tried make sure that Germany is a serious nation that does not take crap from anyone and is also a trustworthy and loyal partner which abides not only to treaties but long-standing relations. This set the stage and frankly, he was naive and pompous when it came to war especially since his own disability made him feel like his position is that of a supreme and smart commander in order to make up for what he couldn't do himself. He had that vision of war being an honourable thing and he measured combat by 18th century standards. Brutal and local skirmishes that could be over within a day's course. Didn't work out. It wasn't even a gamble, he simply had no idea what war means when all sides had decades to arm up with modern machinery and then finally could put them to the field. It slipped out of his hands. He wasn't really aware what was going on. He was de facto the puppet of his own machinations at the end.

    In retrospect he probably would have avoided it but here we assume again a different mindset, the difference to that of ours now today is that we are capable of reflection and self-criticism, that we know that responsibility is an active process and actually "a thing", back then the motto was "I had to do what I had to do as tradition and prevision expected it. I would have been a fool if I acted otherwise." or basically justification qua tradition and blaming others for failure.
    Last edited by Ravenblade; 2017-05-29 at 10:01 AM.
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  7. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadiru View Post
    I'm sure Merkel intends to do just that; speak with experts to see what needs to be done. I expect Merkel won't much like the answer, especially on the financial side. Creditors will have to take large haircuts on government debt from the southern European countries, especially Greece. That won't fly in a psuedo-confederacy like the EU because it'll appear that Greece "beat" Germany, which in fairness is an accurate reading of the situation.
    I don't think you realise how far this could go. If I was Merkel, I'd gladly take "being beaten" by Greece and in return implement a EU wide fiscal policy that controls taxes and national budgets (fed by the tax collector, the EU) to prevent future "Greek Scenarios". Without hesitation. See, I'm not even sure many people here think there is a contest between Germany and Greece. The Greek might see it, but we don't. We just want to prevent things like that from happening again.
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  8. #208
    Herald of the Titans Berengil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nadiru View Post
    To say that the US "didn't look at Europe" is as atrocious a reading of WWII history as "America did everything fuck all y'all."

    Indeed. No one of any intelligence is saying the US did it all by itself. But, what anyone of intelligence would realize is this:

    Had the US not entered WW2, Europeans would now be saluting either the swastika or the hammer & sickle.
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  9. #209
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    I don't think you realise how far this could go. If I was Merkel, I'd gladly take "being beaten" by Greece and in return implement a EU wide fiscal policy that controls taxes and national budgets (fed by the tax collector, the EU) to prevent future "Greek Scenarios". Without hesitation. See, I'm not even sure many people here think there is a contest between Germany and Greece. The Greek might see it, but we don't. We just want to prevent things like that from happening again.
    You're not Merkel. And accordingly, you don't have the political pressures upon you that she does. And I guarantee you regardless of whether "beating Germany" is real or illusory, Merkel will be giving up real money to obtain those unified policies. To the tune of billions of Euros, no less. Hundreds of billions, likely. On a real macro, big picture-ish sort of scale that's worth it, but it's the end of her career in the very near future if she does it. That's the pressure she must withstand if she's to do it.

  10. #210
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    While with the UK out an EU Army may happen we are still far from a common finance policy; it can only happen by deeply fracturing the EU since Germany will have a hard time including Portugal, Italy and Spain (let alone Greece) in such an agreement (even though Greek Finance policy is pretty much authored abroad these days).

    What I think would be a welcome coup is if at least some of the EU economies could agree on something that would be fantastically beneficial; an EU stock market. Imagine if we pushed for common stock market regulations to a much greater extent (and perhaps retain a position of social leadership by forcing triple reporting in auditing standards) and moved to a stock market merger. An EU-wide stock market would afford the people of the EU an easy way to invest in the economy at large with efficient index funds, would allow for the corporate bond market in the EU to actually grow (it is far behind the US and Japanese corporate bond markets), would make investments anywhere in the EU vastly easier, allow for venture capital to trek across the continent and ease financing large IPOs. Plus it would spit in the City's face
    I like your idea about the stock market, but I am deeply distrustful of financial institutions and corporations of not abusing it. But then, if anyone could keep them in check, it would be the EU. They've cracked down hard on the finance sector after 2008.

    Merkel isn't adverse to treaty changes for such a fiscal policy. I think it could be done. And it would naturally have to include some sort of normalisation transaction between the north and the south. We have that concept in Germany, the richer states (industrial states) pay money to the poorer states (the agricultural ones) just so the poor states can equalize their budget properly.

    There's a lot of grumbling, but everyone's accepted it as necessary and it works like a charm. Something like this could work in the EU.
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  11. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    In the case of Greece, Greece would hardly be able to claim any "victory". Noone cares what we think. The sole bargaining chip in favor of Greek haircuts is the involvement of the IMF (which has repeatedly admitted it massively bungled the early handling of the Greek crisis and that without a further and significant haircut be it literal on in the form of a decade long debt jubilee, the debt will NEVER be sustainable; unless you know, someone converts the Aegean into oil)
    Greek debt reduction is absolutely vital if the business model that has sustained the EU since its creation is to be maintained. Which is must, because the alternative is that Germany becomes an vast, yawning chasm of mass consumption in order to balance out its trade surplus with those Eurozone countries it maintains a permanent advantage against. Granted, a war against Russia would do just that. Also, with oil at these prices? It wouldn't be enough.

  12. #212
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadiru View Post
    You're not Merkel. And accordingly, you don't have the political pressures upon you that she does. And I guarantee you regardless of whether "beating Germany" is real or illusory, Merkel will be giving up real money to obtain those unified policies. To the tune of billions of Euros, no less. Hundreds of billions, likely. On a real macro, big picture-ish sort of scale that's worth it, but it's the end of her career in the very near future if she does it. That's the pressure she must withstand if she's to do it.
    It's a huge gamble, I agree. A gamble that could either end her career, or actually carve her name into the history books forever. With the likes of Bismarck, Jefferson and other great statesmen. Forget Kohl, the chancellor of our reunification. This would propel her to the top. If it works.
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  13. #213
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Just say the truth man. We are prisoners in our own homes.
    You still have homes?

  14. #214
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    I like your idea about the stock market, but I am deeply distrustful of financial institutions and corporations of not abusing it. But then, if anyone could keep them in check, it would be the EU. They've cracked down hard on the finance sector after 2008.
    You can't possibly be serious.

  15. #215
    Deleted
    Well if America thinks that sending the clown that Trump is to us as their face and voice then it's obvious that something is very wrong with them. We will see if they show some regret on the next election or if they just love to dig their hole even bigger becoming useless and internationally not relevant.

  16. #216
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadiru View Post
    Good job, you're picking one bank and make quite the deduction from that.
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  17. #217
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    Good job, you're picking one bank and make quite the deduction from that.
    It's one of the largest banks in Europe. It's also one of the largest banks on the planet.

  18. #218
    Quote Originally Posted by Nadiru View Post
    It's one of the largest banks in Europe. It's also one of the largest banks on the planet.
    Yes. We know. Ironically, it's not the bank I'm worried about.
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  19. #219
    I am Murloc! Ravenblade's Avatar
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    Europeans, especially Europeans from France, Britain, and Germany, tend to dismiss those cases as not representative. That remains to be seen, but it's not an unreasonable assertion to suggest that military problems would pose less danger to the European peninsula if there were a regional power willing to assert itself in defense of those cherished post-Nazi ideals Germany's been going on about since 1950. Part of standing up for those ideals necessarily entails the creation of a unified fiscal and defense policy.
    In my opinion the supposed hegemony should be used for positive influence but the lack of unified policies and even lack of unity over unified policies is what had held the Eurozone and the at least back. Introducing a currency before such policies was a gamble based on ambitions that still assumed in fact money can unite a continent. In fact social, fiscal and defense policies should have been at the forefront as should have been oversight over national banks. To this day the effect of the Eurozone crisis affected a lot middle-class people that tried to actually make use of the new currency as promised and people of young age, unable to find work in their shrivelling economies. I've seen how it looked in Spain, so many newly built houses with "se vende" signs on it was mind-boggling.
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  20. #220
    Quote Originally Posted by Ravenblade View Post
    In my opinion the supposed hegemony should be used for positive influence but the lack of unified policies and even lack of unity over unified policies is what had held the Eurozone and the at least back. Introducing a currency before such policies was a gamble based on ambitions that still assumed in fact money can unite a continent. In fact social, fiscal and defense policies should have been at the forefront. To this day the effect of the Eurozone crisis affected a lot middle-class people that tried to actually make use of the new currency as promised and people of young age, unable to find work in their shrivelling economies. I've seen how it looked in Spain, so many newly built houses with "se vende" signs on it was mind-boggling.
    The hegemony should be used for positive influence. Thus far, Germany has effectively been a rentier for countries like Greece and Spain. In Spain at least, the appeal of European acceptance through EU membership is strong enough to create a narrative which justifies the sacrifices made on the national level. But that appeal will not remain strong in perpetuity. Even though Spain's political loyalty to the EU project has bought years for Germany to act, German officials have squandered that time and with it, valuable influence.

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