After G7 summit, Merkel: "Europe Must Plot Own Course"

[Slant]

It's not an unfair deduction.

The banking system has long been too powerful by virtue of it's necessary international nature. Banking regulations lag a full DECADE behind. I am not kidding, each set of international regulations is based on decade long workings because that is what it takes for the states to pass the necessary legislation after some measure of global compromise is reached. If the EU could agree on a set of regulations within the Parliament and Eurogroup, it could force the global banking system to follow by virtue of importance.

A truly uniform EU-wide banking regulatory system should absolutely SLAM Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas and Societe General (and possibly others I don't follow). And we should stop being so afraid of the banking system and slap them with truly punitive penalties for the fact that they constantly make enormous arbitrage profits against sanctioned state actors and individuals!

Oh, I agree with all of that. But again, it's not the European side I'm worried about. The US financial sector is the one we should be worried about. They've consolidated so heavily and are again doing shady business that it is only a question of time until the US drags the world economy to the brink of ruin again.

[Nadiru]

Oh, I agree with all of that. But again, it's not the European side I'm worried about. The US financial sector is the one we should be worried about. They've consolidated so heavily and are again doing shady business that it is only a question of time until the US drags the world economy to the brink of ruin again.

The US actually has a playbook for financial crises; the EU and China don't. I'd be more worried about China than the US, God only knows what their books must actually look like.

[Slant]

The hegemony should be used for positive influence. Thus far, Germany has effectively been a rentier for countries like Greece and Spain. In Spain at least, the appeal of European acceptance through EU membership is strong enough to create a narrative which justifies the sacrifices made on the national level. But that appeal will not remain strong in perpetuity. Even though Spain's political loyalty to the EU project has bought years for Germany to act, German officials have squandered that time and with it, valuable influence.

It's funny how one side blames Germany for dominating Europe while the other side says "Germany should have used the time to make things happen", thus obligating Germany to use its position of power.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't...

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The US actually has a playbook for financial crises; the EU and China don't. I'd be more worried about China than the US, God only knows what their books must actually look like.

Let's just not find out too soon, shall we? We're still fixing the last crisis...

[Noradin]

I'm sure had he known the xtent of the consequences, he'd have agreed. Sometimes, someone has to be the idiot to make the mistake.

It is unlikely to have turned out better for his country had he chosen that option.
He would have isolated himself from everybody and France and Britain would have been even more likely to push for a war.
The French wanted revenge for losing the war they started and the policy of the UK in regards of Europe has always been to try and pit continental European Nations against each other.

[Nadiru]

It's funny how one side blames Germany for dominating Europe while the other side says "Germany should have used the time to make things happen", thus obligating Germany to use its position of power.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't...

If you guys can tell us to do it, turnabout is fair play: Use your goddamn power better

[Nadiru]

Let's just not find out too soon, shall we? We're still fixing the last crisis...

The crisis is coming, dude. All the bad business cycles are lining up, we got that bad syzygy voodoo going on, and the time is ripe for the Fourth Turning.

[Kiri]

Or the Kaiser could have ordered demobilization, fired any general who refused, told Franz Josef "you're on your own", and released a statement in the international press and on the radio that Germany was "absolutely neutral in the Balkan dispute. Austria-Hungary's fate is its own affair."

In such a case, a friendless and isolated A-H would have agreed to Serbia's acceptance of 9 out of 10 of their demands, and that would have been that.

EDIT: got the number of demands in A-H ultimatum wrong

Yeah, they should have. Almost everyone involved in all of this could have had a moment of 'WTF are we doing here' at any point to defuse the situation. But we are speaking here with the benefit of hindsight. For example, the Kaiser had to consider also that France wanted to get back at them for the last war - backing down and forsaking its allies would have meant no support if France decided to attack and ask Russia along for the ride. Which is only the long-term thing. He also had no guarantee that Russia would take a bit out of Germany while they were at it and with German military disabled. For us, today, it is easy to say what people would and should have done. But back then...idk man. Those were different times. The generals could just have put the Kaiser under house arrest or ignored his commands, forcing his hand.

[Zarc]

I think when history looks back at 2017, this summit will be the mark where they'll comment that Europe started to turn away from the US and re-emancipated itself. This is bad for the US.

I beg the differ, this is good for the US.

Since the end of World War II, the US have supported European integration. President Obama called Europeans "free loaders" many years ago. As much as Trump is an authoritarian buffoon, in many respects the Obama and Trump foreign doctrine is similar. Remember how now-Secretary of Defense James Mattis criticized both Obama and Trump over their criticism of NATO allies in 2016?

Why have the US supported European integration from the beginning? Because they don't want to forever be the indispensable anchor of the free world. If Europe can pull their own weight as a unified bloc, then instead of having 1 "superpower" in defense of the free world, you'd have 2. If Trump's bombastic style and embrace of strongmen authoritarians around the world is a catalyst for European integration to take another leap, that is in the long-term interest of America. Obama tried the friendly approach, Trump is trying the chock approach - however unwittingly or by chance that may be.

And this is not when "Europe started to turn away from the US and re-emancipated itself". It's a smaller version of that. Further European integration has always come in intensified dozes from time to time over the past 70 years, every time it has been driven by the so-called twin engine of France and Germany. Which means circumstances in both countries must be ripe for driving that integration forward. It is often in times of crisis or radically changing circumstances, like the fall of the Berlin wall, that this engine has shifted gear and taken another leap forward. Contrary to the belief of some EU haters Germany does not and can not pull Europe forward on its own, and they never have. Part of the reason Germany has gotten so much, in some cases unwanted attention, in recent years is because France has lacked the reform and leadership necessary to fuel the twin engine. With the election of Macron, there's a sense of opportunity there that they could finally up their game.

So the "turn away", which really isn't a turn away but the US holding EU's hand until it's ready to walk on its own, is rather just another such leap to advance European integration further. If there was ever a "turn away" that was when the Treaty of Brussels (1948), Treaty of Paris (1951) or Treaty of Treaty of Rome (1957) were signed, which is when this whole thing started. But then again, that was fully supported by the US, as have successive advancements in European integration ever since. After Trump there will come new Presidents who Europe will get along with great. The difference could be, though, that at that time Europe's defense is much stronger and much less reliable on the US, which means that the US can put it's energy elsewhere in the world to aid the slow advance of freedom as they - despite major blunders and mistakes along the way - have always done, ever since the days of Thomas Jefferson when he minted the term "Empire of Liberty".

This is not to say we shouldn't be wary of Trump's alleged ties to Russia or his embrace of strongman leaders around the world or his willingness to do massive arms deals with Saudi Arabia. But we should recognize that with every crisis there is opportunity, and we should seize it. And long-term, that is good for both the US, the EU and the wider free world.

[Nadiru]

Eh, complex systems are often best predicted by simple models than by complex models. The alignment of business and election cycles has been a solid predictor of crisis.

Indeed. I was even referencing one of those simple models, one that works quite well.

[Slant]

If you guys can tell us to do it, turnabout is fair play: Use your goddamn power better

Historical context and the example the US sets cautions us to be careful about using our power. With great power comes great responsibility. :P

[Deja Thoris]

My father often blames Brussels for the Greek crisis. As he says "Every Greek knew our politicians were incompetent and corrupt but we slept easy because we at least thought there was some oversight from Brussels and EUROSTAT keeping them from burning everything down. We were very wrong"

Countries / people take responsibility for the consequences of their own actions, they don't scapegoat others.

[Nadiru]

Historical context and the example the US sets cautions us to be careful about using our power. With great power comes great responsibility. :P

Now that you understand how difficult it is, do be careful the next time you want to berate the US for an overstep.

[Mayhem]

My father often blames Brussels for the Greek crisis. As he says "Every Greek knew our politicians were incompetent and corrupt but we slept easy because we at least thought there was some oversight from Brussels and EUROSTAT keeping them from burning everything down. We were very wrong"

Wat? No seriously, WAT? I hope their mindset changed.

[Slant]

My father often blames Brussels for the Greek crisis. As he says "Every Greek knew our politicians were incompetent and corrupt but we slept easy because we at least thought there was some oversight from Brussels and EUROSTAT keeping them from burning everything down. We were very wrong"

He's right in a sense. Brussels was too naive, too ignorant and basically just hoped everything would turn out right. If you want to blame Europe for something, you can absolutely blame Europe for being too trusting. A mistake that is being fixed. I hope your father will someday say that Brussels managed to fix their mistake.

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Now that you understand how difficult it is, do be careful the next time you want to berate the US for an overstep.

No, I won't. That's one of the key elements of democracy. Telling someone when they fucked up. The key is that you need to learn to accept that. Hey, we've been told we fucked up endless times in the past 2 years. Some people still like to blame us for everything a foreigner does on European soil. I'm not even talking about terrorists (although most of them are homegrown), I'm talking literally everything a foreigner does. From shoplifting, to just "being there."

[Noradin]

If she does it, she will do it in the last years before she actually decides to retire. That's the only time when she can be bold. Again when it comes to Greece, the one who'd beat Germany would be the IMF. Considering the German insistence on including the IMF in everything, maybe they should take the IMF's advice? You know, before the leading world economists lose their sight by rolling their eyes at Schauble on a daily basis.

They will hold out a bit longer to make sure Greece actually keeps trying to reform instead of just falling back, then they will reward them with debt cuts in exchange for something symbolic so both sides can save face.

[Nadiru]

No, I won't. That's one of the key elements of democracy. Telling someone when they fucked up. The key is that you need to learn to accept that. Hey, we've been told we fucked up endless times in the past 2 years. Some people still like to blame us for everything a foreigner does on European soil. I'm not even talking about terrorists (although most of them are homegrown), I'm talking literally everything a foreigner does. From shoplifting, to just "being there."

The problem is that berating doesn't do anything. Each situation is unique and it's not quite chance which turns a bad decision into a good one but that's not too far off the mark, either.

[Deleted]

Indeed. No one of any intelligence is saying the US did it all by itself. But, what anyone of intelligence would realize is this:

Had the US not entered WW2, Europeans would now be saluting either the swastika or the hammer & sickle.

I don't think so.
Nazi Germany, if it had won, would likely have fractured within a few decades, as its ideology did not really work as a unifying chit.
As for the USSR, if it ate the whole continent, it would have been unable to effectively manage all of said territory, Remember the USSR was forced to resort to force several times to maintain dominance, it wouldn't have been able to do that over the entire EU.
It could survive until now possibly, but it would be more akin to the EU, than the USSR, or as some are fond of saying about the EU, the EUSSR (which really should be ESSR, or UESSR, or ESU).
Now i'm a fervent Anti communist, but Russia isn't and wasn't nearly strong enough to maintain a USSR like dominance over all of the continent.

[Noradin]

Now that you understand how difficult it is, do be careful the next time you want to berate the US for an overstep.

Why?
The US wants that position, and constantly boasts about it, thus they get to hear the riposte.

[Arunu]

It cannot be overstated how important US shipments of weaponry, industrial equipment, and supplies were to the Soviet Union when they began to arrive. Without them, Moscow would've fallen and the Soviets along with it. The relocation of the Soviet industrial base would have never been managed without the arrival of Studebaker trucks, a truck which the Soviets were so impressed with, they adopted its design as a general purpose off-road, all-weather truck into the ZiL-157. And that was merely on the Soviet side of things. For the rest of the Allies, the US sent all manner of foodstuffs and armaments over in ships; the US sent over so much food to Europe that they imposed rationing on the US citizenry. During that period the US food production industries invented what is now derided as "fake food" just so people could eat something; things like Spam and Kraft processed cheeses. To say that the US "didn't look at Europe" is as atrocious a reading of WWII history as "America did everything fuck all y'all."

I am well aware of that, i will clarify since you have a point : the USA was very much so crucial to the European theater in another way. i did not mean they didn't do squat. I was mostly refering to military operations but you are right, it was unclear and came off the wrong way.

But as you said, the notion of : the USA did everything gets me mad pretty fast, it is utterly disrespectful to all those that laid down their lives for their countries, whether they were Polish, Canadian, Irish, Scottish, Russian or what not.

[Slant]

The problem is that berating doesn't do anything. Each situation is unique and it's not quite chance which turns a bad decision into a good one but that's not too far off the mark, either.

Berating for berating's sake doesn't make sense. You're right. Alas, the rest of the world has given up on the US at this point it seems. I predict you'll wish the times back when we berated you before long. Because the next step is ignoring you.