One year after Brexit referendum, economic slow down

[ati87]

The thing is it is not really fair to compare the generally needy, homeless,jobless and penniless eu refugees that arrive in the UK with the expat Brits who leave for the EU self sufficent, usually with the 100,000s euros from the sale proceeds of their house and often with 100,000's euro in their bulging pensions.

The two are not comparable. One group bring wealth and one come to take it away.

Please provide a peer reviewed study of this statement you just made.

Also you are contradicting yourself, so lets take what you said

If those 3M people you claim would be jobless if a Brexit happend and they would be forced to move out then we have to assume that they are currently employed. So there goes that statement saying that they don't have any value, clearly if a person is working they have a actual value towards the economy i
vs

Some fictional person who seems to have 100k in the bank

I can also make fictional claims about british citizens? DO you really want me to go down that road where both of us make allot of claims withouth any god dam evidence to back it up

[dribbles]

Please provide a peer reviewed study of this statement you just made.

Also you are contradicting yourself, so lets take what you said

If those 3M people you claim would be jobless if a Brexit happend and they would be forced to move out then we have to assume that they are currently employed. So there goes that statement saying that they don't have any value, clearly if a person is working they have a actual value towards the economy i
vs

Some fictional person who seems to have 100k in the bank

I can also make fictional claims about british citizens? DO you really want me to go down that road where both of us make allot of claims withouth any god dam evidence to back it up

No problem if common sense is not good enough for you a precis of your peer reviewed study can be found here.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/670...gration-report

Yeah I know you are going to wail about how it's the express, simply because you cant pick their arguments apart, however if you want to read the pages and pages of peer reviewed study you can simply go to their source here. https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/

[Deleted]

No problem if common sense is not good enough for you a precis of your peer reviewed study can be found here.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/670...gration-report

Yeah I know you are going to wail about how it's the express, simply because you cant pick their arguments apart, however if you want to read the pages and pages of peer reviewed study you can simply go to their source here. https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/

*Sigh*.

A peer-reviewed study is not a fucking newspaper article. In the Express of all places. You might as well quote the Onion.

Nor is a link to a website homepage.

This is like talking to a chimpanzee.

[Slant]

Locally sourced products like?

The mighty British car industry (half of which is owned by foreign companies).

[ati87]

No problem if common sense is not good enough for you a precis of your peer reviewed study can be found here.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/670...gration-report

Yeah I know you are going to wail about how it's the express, simply because you cant pick their arguments apart, however if you want to read the pages and pages of peer reviewed study you can simply go to their source here. https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/

I really shouldn't respond to this shit, seriously do you even know what a peer reviewed study is? It's because of people that work at the migrationwatchuk that we need bloody fact-checkers which is a god dam sad website

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2014...-million-a-day

Verdict: Migration Watch's claims are based on assumptions that the academic experts on the subject say are false. Yet for some reason, the new report was released without first putting those assumptions to those academics.

do you even google the crap you read to see if it's true? Or just think ''this article is also written on Breitbart so it must be true''

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*Sigh*.

A peer-reviewed study is not a fucking newspaper article. In the Express of all places. You might as well quote the Onion.

Nor is a link to a website homepage.

This is like talking to a chimpanzee.

Funny thing, that article is based on research done by that website.

It's like if I claim something and that's get published and then I go around linking that article to proof that others are saying the same thing.

[Deleted]

1 year on and the UK is fine

[Deleted]

That's the problem. The UK doesn't seem to have a position. We have already begun negotiating. So, I'm not sure. I think May is actually intellectually able (read: stupid) enough to let the whole cart drive against the wall and see what sticks. I think she's absolutely overwhelmed with the situation. She feels like when Cameron chickened out, everyone in cabinet went "Not it!" and she was the slowest kid in the yard... and everytime she gives and interview, she's being this insecure stonewall face ("If I don't move, perhaps nobody will notice me screaming inside, because I have no idea what I'm doing...").

The problem is that the UK position is essentially they want to have the cake and eat it too.
They want a deal that replicates what they currently have, but they don't want the EUCJ and money transfers.
hell their stated policy is that they want out of the customs union by 2019 - Something that is Literally impossible - They don't have time to build and recruit their customs service in that time!

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1 year on and the UK is fine

A, still haven't left.
B, Have reduced growth, increasing inflation, and sterling is dropping - It's called stagflation, and the UK is heading there.

[Deleted]

A, still haven't left.
B, Have reduced growth, increasing inflation, and sterling is dropping - It's called stagflation, and the UK is heading there.

People said the UK would be a mess one year on... People will continue saying this for years to come. Very few citizens are worried

[dribbles]

*Sigh*.

A peer-reviewed study is not a fucking newspaper article. In the Express of all places. You might as well quote the Onion.

Nor is a link to a website homepage.

This is like talking to a chimpanzee.

I really shouldn't respond to this shit, seriously do you even know what a peer reviewed study is? It's because of people that work at the migrationwatchuk that we need bloody fact-checkers which is a god dam sad website

Even the left wing state sponsored Biased Broadcasting Corporation accept migrationwatch as a reliable source, that is saying something. If you are not prepared to accept BBC sources as reliable, you won't accept any.

[Deleted]

Even the left wing state sponsored Biased Broadcasting Corporation accept migrationwatch as a reliable source, that is saying something. If you are not prepared to accept BBC sources as reliable, you won't accept any.

What, that organization whose appointments are controlled by the conservative government? That organization whose funding is determined by the conservative government? Whose journalists are all in the supertax league or outed conservatives? Who have a former of the Bullingdon club acting as a chair of the main political discussion programme, who himself criticized the BBC for its anti-labour bias? Whose chairman is a former banker? Yep, fucking marxists that lot.

Btw This is what a peer-reviewed study looks like (meticulous research detailing pro-conservative bias at the BBC) http://www.mediareform.org.uk/wp-con...ynresearch.pdf

The key points in the study:


465 online articles and 40 prime time news bulletins assessed

Twice as much airtime given to critical, rather than supportive voices

Huge imbalance in favour of issues pushed by Corbyn critics on early evening BBC and
ITV bulletins
–
especially pronounced in headline stories

Strong tendency within BBC main evening news for reporters to use pejorative
language when describing Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters

Domination of views opposed to the Labour leadership
in all but one of the online outlets sampled, and across both left and right

[Tinch]

The problem is that the UK position is essentially they want to have the cake and eat it too.
They want a deal that replicates what they currently have, but they don't want the EUCJ and money transfers.
hell their stated policy is that they want out of the customs union by 2019 - Something that is Literally impossible - They don't have time to build and recruit their customs service in that time!

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A, still haven't left.
B, Have reduced growth, increasing inflation, and sterling is dropping - It's called stagflation, and the UK is heading there.

Unemployment is at its lowest level in over 40 years and the rise in inflation is related to a one-off decline in sterling and is expected to fall back next year - not exactly the perfect conditions for stagflation is it.

[ati87]

Even the left wing state sponsored Biased Broadcasting Corporation accept migrationwatch as a reliable source, that is saying something. If you are not prepared to accept BBC sources as reliable, you won't accept any.

Again statements without proving any god dam proof, it's it really that hard to provide a link or two when making statements?

But in the end even, for argument sake, what you said is true that doesn't mean that the study in question is accepted as true by the BBC. That's not how a study is reviewed by others in that proffesion. You could win the nobel price every year for you're study and not collega in that field of study will accept you're new research at face value.

But I'm done, either you are trolling or just don't know any better either way this isn't a discussion.

[Deleted]

Unemployment is at its lowest level in over 40 years and the rise in inflation is related to a one-off decline in sterling and is expected to fall back next year - not exactly the perfect conditions for stagflation is it.

Unemployment is at its lowest level because benefits have effectively been removed which in most cases forces people to work below a de facto minimum wage (zero hours contracts etc). That doesn't help the economy much.
I don't know where you are getting your information about inflation from. The consensus of economic experts is that it will rise continuously.

On a common sense level, the fact that there will be both a labour shortage and an absence of cheap labour resulting from reduced immigration will only result in increased inflation.

[Deleted]

That's not an actual report, it's an opinion piece by an anti immigration think tank - it has absolutely no value.

I mean how can you even believe a person called Lord Green of Deddington anyway, LOL!

MigrationWatch UK is an immigration and asylum research organisation and think-tank, which describes itself as independent and non-political, but which has been characterised by some commentators and academics as a right-wing pressure group.

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Well brexit hasn't happened yet, nothing have actually changed.

And I am convinced 5 years on everything will be ok

[Deleted]

Unemployment is at its lowest level in over 40 years and the rise in inflation is related to a one-off decline in sterling and is expected to fall back next year - not exactly the perfect conditions for stagflation is it.

Well we will see if the pound keeps dropping (which it is likely too) and inflation sticks, because to combat that the Bank of England must raise rates and cease with QE (last i checked they lowered rates and increased QE).

[Tinch]

Unemployment is at its lowest level because benefits have effectively been removed which in most cases forces people to work below a de facto minimum wage (zero hours contracts etc). That doesn't help the economy much.
I don't know where you are getting your information about inflation from. The consensus of economic experts is that it will rise continuously.

On a common sense level, the fact that there will be both a labour shortage and an absence of cheap labour resulting from reduced immigration will only result in increased inflation.

Full-time job growth has actually been outpacing part-time and people on zero hours contracts accounts for less than 3% of the labour force.

On inflation just look at the BoE's forecast, they expect it to peak in Q4 this year then gradually reduce to just above the 2% target from 2019. Or the NIESR: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-...-19-2018-12878

We project consumer price inflation to peak at 3.4 per cent in the final quarter of this year, before gradually returning back towards the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to look through this temporary spike in inflation and to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25 per cent until mid-2019, after which it tightens gradually by around 50 basis points per annum.

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Well we will see if the pound keeps dropping (which it is likely too) and inflation sticks, because to combat that the Bank of England must raise rates and cease with QE (last i checked they lowered rates and increased QE).

Funny that your link predicts that the pound would fall, yet its currently trading higher than it was when that article was written. Others like Morgan Stanley are predicting that sterling could increase to $1.45 by the end of next year, predicting the rise and fall of sterling is a fool's game at the moment.

Talk over the last few days is that the BoE might actually increase interest rates this year. Last I saw it was 50/50 whether they'll vote for a rate increase in August.

[Deleted]

On inflation just look at the BoE's forecast, they expect it to peak in Q4 this year then gradually reduce to just above the 2% target from 2019. Or the NIESR: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-...-19-2018-12878

Advice for the economically and statistically illiterate.

Look through past boe forecasts. Observe what happened. Note the complete absence of any correlation between the two things.

Learn that forecasts are essentially guesswork unless focused on the extremely short-term.

For added humour value: look at boe adjustments to figures that were calculated about the past and observe subsequent revisions. They often don't even get the numbers right retrospectively.

[Tinch]

Advice for the economically and statistically illiterate.

Look through past boe forecasts. Observe what happened. Note the complete absence of any correlation between the two things.

Learn that forecasts are essentially guesswork unless focused on the extremely short-term.

For added humour value: look at boe adjustments to figures that were calculated about the past and observe subsequent revisions. They often don't even get the numbers right retrospectively.

'The consensus of economic experts is that it will rise continuously. ' - Why did you bother trying to make this argument then?

[Deleted]

Full-time job growth has actually been outpacing part-time and people on zero hours contracts accounts for less than 3% of the labour force.

On inflation just look at the BoE's forecast, they expect it to peak in Q4 this year then gradually reduce to just above the 2% target from 2019. Or the NIESR: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/niesr-...-19-2018-12878



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Funny that your link predicts that the pound would fall, yet its currently trading higher than it was when that article was written. Others like Morgan Stanley are predicting that sterling could increase to $1.45 by the end of next year, predicting the rise and fall of sterling is a fool's game at the moment.

Talk over the last few days is that the BoE might actually increase interest rates this year. Last I saw it was 50/50 whether they'll vote for a rate increase in August.

last i checked there were some who wanted to raise it and some who wanted to lower it - A fairly rare position, more importantly, growth is declining, it may or may not be going to a be a recession, yet, they are talking about Raising rates.

[Deleted]

'The consensus of economic experts is that it will rise continuously. ' - Why did you bother trying to make this argument then?

Because people like you think that sort of bullshit matters.