Same keys over and over again

[Magnagarde]

I've pushed a total of 9 keys yesterday with my guildies and each single one ended up being Upper Karazhan, Lower Karazhan or Cathedral at +13 and above. Each single one.

This can't be a coincidence. It is like they've raised the probability for one key to be given more than the others just to make players do the dungeons they've done the least. What is worse is that all you can do is lower the key to the same dungeon and then give it another try while having to complete the dungeon you don't want to complete.

[Naiyano]

I've pushed a total of 9 keys yesterday with my guildies and each single one ended up being Upper Karazhan, Lower Karazhan or Cathedral at +13 and above. Each single one.

This can't be a coincidence. It is like they've raised the probability for one key to be given more than the others just to make players do the dungeons they've done the least. What is worse is that all you can do is lower the key to the same dungeon and then give it another try while having to complete the dungeon you don't want to complete.

Works like a charm. Coen +13 into Coen +9 into a random dungeon into Coen +14-15 everytime. I honestly just trash the key and sneak into someones key that's at least a bit fun. Which is difficult bc everone i know has the same crap keys. Maybe it's highly subjective, but after my experience since 7.2.5 i don't think so.

[Aoyi]

Sorry to highjack this thread, but I've got a question, did they change the key levels this week? We only bothered with +12 last week and I had a +11 key today, The week before our key lost 3 or 4 levels in the chest.

Yes, they did. It seems now you get a key that's 1 lower than the dungeon you complete the previous week. At least that was the way it happened this week.

[Ealyssa]

Actually, that's exactly what random means

Actually, exactly not.

Random means only one thing : That you can't predict it. In the long term it may lean to homogenization but even then it's still random, it may not. You can throw a coin 27 times and have 27 tails. Doesn't mean the 28th throw has more chance to be head.

What people observe with their key is way too small of a sample to hope for even distribution. It's like throwing a dice six times and be shocked to not have 1-2-3-4-5-6. It's stupid. But people usually can't grasp what random means.

[Deleted]

today from weekly chest. +15 upper kara on main, +14 upper kara on alt. that cant be a coincidence.

[Deleted]

Actually, exactly not.

Random means only one thing : That you can't predict it. In the long term it may lean to homogenization but even then it's still random, it may not. You can throw a coin 27 times and have 27 tails. Doesn't mean the 28th throw has more chance to be head.

What people observe with their key is way too small of a sample to hope for even distribution. It's like throwing a dice six times and be shocked to not have 1-2-3-4-5-6. It's stupid. But people usually can't grasp what random means.

Ahhh, the art of mis-quoting... And here I thought this was squashed by modern university education...

If you had quoted my full sentence correctly:
"Actually, that's exactly what random means if taken over very large numbers."
you could have saved yourself your post entirely. Mathematically: "If you take a large number of samples from a population with any distribution [...] and average them, the resulting distribution will approximate a normal distribution. For example, if you roll many dice and average the result, the resulting number will be distributed normally. The more dice you use, the closer the result will be to a normal distribution."

So yes, for 6 rolls, it doesn't follow normal distribution yet, but over the population of WoW, it actually should.

[Deleted]

Ahhh, the art of mis-quoting... And here I thought this was squashed by modern university education...

If you had quoted my full sentence correctly:
"Actually, that's exactly what random means if taken over very large numbers."
you could have saved yourself your post entirely. Mathematically: "If you take a large number of samples from a population with any distribution [...] and average them, the resulting distribution will approximate a normal distribution. For example, if you roll many dice and average the result, the resulting number will be distributed normally. The more dice you use, the closer the result will be to a normal distribution."

So yes, for 6 rolls, it doesn't follow normal distribution yet, but over the population of WoW, it actually should.

There's a difference between "evenly distributed" and "normally distributed". Your initial post stated "A truly random system will always be evenly distributed for statistically relevant numbers.".

Just rolling 2 D6 tells you that the results are not evenly distributed (there are much more combinations to get a 7 than anything else, hence that's where Catan let's you move the robber). The results of 2 D6, while random, are not even - they're normal (which is a whole different mathematical term).

[Cosmic Janitor]

Yes, they did. It seems now you get a key that's 1 lower than the dungeon you complete the previous week. At least that was the way it happened this week.

Hmm okay. That is actually nice. I was getting tired of having to start 4 level below all the time and with the massive buffs to mythic+ encounters it became quite tedious to get your best chest each ID.

[Magnagarde]

Works like a charm. Coen +13 into Coen +9 into a random dungeon into Coen +14-15 everytime. I honestly just trash the key and sneak into someones key that's at least a bit fun. Which is difficult bc everone i know has the same crap keys. Maybe it's highly subjective, but after my experience since 7.2.5 i don't think so.

We lowered an Upper Karazhan key from +14 to +9 last night, did a +3 and got Upper Karazhan +12. We went ahead and did it anyway and got a +13 Cathedral key afterwards.

[shyguybman]

Lower Kara is one of the easier dungeons at high levels. Why people are scared of it is beyond me. It's no COEN or Upper, not even close.

Teeming, Explosive & Fortified would like a word with you

[Jimson]

Teeming, Explosive & Fortified would like a word with you

"Easier" is relative, though. T/E/F is a tough combination in any instance, so Lower Kara could still be "easier" than CoeN or Upper.

Disclaimer: I've not run any of the three on M+, I stick with the tried and true baseline instances that PUGs understand more easily.

[Icedcoffeee]

Without a larger dataset, confirmation bias will easily distort the keys that show up in this thread.

Which is not to say they might not be steering us towards certain dungeons over others. But it also seems more likely that "good" keys get used without a second thought, while "bad" keys get shouted from the hilltops. Maws get run immediately, while CoENs stick around all week.

[Bowshewicz]

For what it's worth, here's some info from Raider.IO, regarding the highest M+ completed for each dungeon:

+18: Cathedral
+19: Maw, Lower Kara, Upper Kara
+20: BRH, DHT, Eye, NL
+21: Court, Halls, Arcway, Vault

This suggests that Cathedral is the hardest dungeon (duh), that both levels of Karazhan are harder than other dungeons (fits my experience), and that Maw gets really tough for some reason (totally unexpected).

Do what you will with this information.

[cloudfour]

lower kara, upper kara, and Cathedral key are probably going to be popping up more often now because blizz needs 'statistical data'. their testing team is dog shit so they need us to see hows it going. No proof, but why else would everyone suddenly come by a kara or coen after their nerfs?

[Vaerys]

For what it's worth, here's some info from Raider.IO, regarding the highest M+ completed for each dungeon:

+18: Cathedral
+19: Maw, Lower Kara, Upper Kara
+20: BRH, DHT, Eye, NL
+21: Court, Halls, Arcway, Vault

This suggests that Cathedral is the hardest dungeon (duh), that both levels of Karazhan are harder than other dungeons (fits my experience), and that Maw gets really tough for some reason (totally unexpected).

Do what you will with this information.

Maw with Tyrannical at high key level, the 2nd boss is a pain in the ass, takes a while to kill, and leaves puddles everywhere, and there is pressure to stack to kill the add spawns, but also pressure to spread due to puddles, and the scythe going out. Combine this with quaking and/or volcanic, and there's often no good place to be.
Shit gets real, fast.

[Hotsforyou]

This is the main reason the M+ is a failure to me. I cant target what dungeons i want to do, so i just dont bother with M+ at all. Waste of my time IMO.

[Shuken]

This is the main reason the M+ is a failure to me. I cant target what dungeons i want to do, so i just dont bother with M+ at all. Waste of my time IMO.

No one cares why M+ are a failure to you. This has nothing to do with this thread.

[Deleted]

TBH I wish the key system actually opened a small menu proposing 2-3 different dungeons when you complete your current key and you can choose the one you prefer out of those choices. Keeps the RNG and variance in, without making you feel completely helpless if you get upper kz 5 times in a row.

[Deleted]

I thought it is only me getting upper kara / coen all the time.
Me cri.

In my 15 pushing on my alt i once got EoA, DHT and NL. The rest was upper kara/coen iirc. How is that possible?

[Elim Garak]

You should do those dungeons that your overlords tell you to do.