Latest data on immigration and crime in Germany

[Noomz]

1st phase : Fight tooth and nail in order to disprove the data.

Has begun.

They come from places where it's ok to stone women to death if they see a woman driving. It's not surprising to see those numbers. Especially when those same people have got no will to integrate themselves into our society.

It's always good to be moderately critical of something. Especially if it agrees with you. If you can't and won't ask questions about something just because it agrees with you, then you've got a poor support for your argument. And constantly acting like something that supports your argument is above criticism is often a sign of a very poor argument.

Though I'm not saying this particular case is wrong. I'm just making a general statement on how criticism to an argument should and shouldn't be handled.

[Deleted]

Any one notice the newspaper linked to is owned by a group of weird Chinese religous cultists.?

So, reputable source obviously.

[Kuntantee]

Are Turks, for example, considered "auslönder" or German?

[Kiri]

Well I don't believe I claimed there are more foreigners in Germany, the analogy was to bring up that things that rates are a much more useful tool to generalize from than absolute numbers. To extrapolate on it, if you do encounter a shark it is more likely to kill you than if you encounter a bee, on the same token, if you do encounter an Asylum seeker or an immigrant in Germany, they're more likely to harm you than an ethnic German. Of course the shark is dangerous than all the rest of them.

Rates are more useful in some cases, but that requires them to be applied correctly. If you compare the rate of the general German population to that of the general refugee population in order to make comparisons like this, you are acting disingenuously. The two populations differ greatly in terms of age, sex, economic status etc. That is why we run experiments and the like with groups that are as similar in composition as possible. If you meet an immigrant and an ethnic German of the same age, sex, educational and economic background, the differences in threat levels may not be as poignant as you make them out to be. I say may because I do no have data that is sufficiently differentiated and neither have you.
To build a public opinion or even policy on such a basis is simply not prudent.

Also, you analogy falls completely flat. Most people who die to bee stings are those allergic to them. You will see people that know that they can die from one making a bee-line just as fast when they see a bee as they will when they see a shark. Well, technically, since they likely run faster than swim....

[zenkai]

-snip - nevermind

[Ravenblade]

Are Turks, for example, considered "auslönder" or German?

They are the classic fallback in times of peace for it, yes. Depending on where you live tbh, in the East most Turks are actually Kurdish Turks but traditionally the East dislikes anything that is not them. It is even dangerous to be a German just with visibly foreign genes in some parts even - and that's the real irony - if they share parts of the scepticism of the immediate cultural compatibility with the local subculture which can be characterized by a rural lifestyle where the highest type of event is the yearly Kirmes festival.

[Grapemask]

You disqualified yourself there in that one short sentence for anything you could ever write afterwards. LOL!

You're not the brightest fellow, are you?

[Yriel]

Are Turks, for example, considered "auslönder" or German?

In my experience the vast majority of them see themselves as turks and not as germans, quite a few even see it as an insult to call them german.

[Deleted]

Unsuprising.
For instance: if someone breaks and enters your house, do you honestly think he will just leave? HE WILL NOT. He will steal, and possibly rape and murder.

Illegals entering the area intend to do just so... criminality.

Laws for civilized people are present. Now, we should have a new set of laws, for uncivilized. To protect human lifes.

[Karfal]

Anyone with an IQ over 10 knew this.

[Northy]

Europeans welcome the demise of their own cultures. I'll never understand you guys. I experience more German culture going to Wisconsin than I do going to Deutschland.

[Forogil]

Rates are more useful in some cases, but that requires them to be applied correctly. If you compare the rate of the general German population to that of the general refugee population in order to make comparisons like this, you are acting disingenuously. The two populations differ greatly in terms of age, sex, economic status etc. That is why we run experiments and the like with groups that are as similar in composition as possible. If you meet an immigrant and an ethnic German of the same age, sex, educational and economic background, the differences in threat levels may not be as poignant as you make them out to be. I say may because I do no have data that is sufficiently differentiated and neither have you.

Previous studies in Europe have indicated that controlling for age, sex and socioeconomic factor significantly decreases the difference in criminality between immigrants and natives, but does not completely remove it.

However, there are two obvious issues: We already knew that they had all those risk-factors earlier. Why was there no plan to handle this, and why do people act surprised now (assuming they don't ignore it)?

And the socioeconomic factors are to a significant extent a proxy for personal factors (like intelligence - but also willingness to take risks).

That proxy-relation breaks down when we compare different groups - a German who haven't completed school is likely not very bright, but we should not automatically assume that an immigrant from a country where most don't completed school is as stupid as a German who dropped out of school. Thus by using "socioeconomic factors" instead of e.g. intelligence we hide the actual difference between groups; and try to solve difficult problems by ignoring them.

[Kiri]

Previous studies in Europe have indicated that controlling for age, sex and socioeconomic factor significantly decreases the difference in criminality between immigrants and natives, but does not completely remove it.

However, there are two obvious issues: We already knew that they had all those risk-factors earlier. Why was there no plan to handle this, and why do people act surprised now (assuming they don't ignore it)?

And the socioeconomic factors are to a significant extent a proxy for personal factors (like intelligence - but also willingness to take risks).

That proxy-relation breaks down when we compare different groups - a German who haven't completed school is likely not very bright, but we should not automatically assume that an immigrant from a country where most don't completed school is as stupid as a German who dropped out of school. Thus by using "socioeconomic factors" instead of e.g. intelligence we hide the actual difference between groups; and try to solve difficult problems by ignoring them.

The handling of the whole refugee thing has been a fiasco in part. An unprecedented influx like this was something no European country was ready for and should have been thought through a whole lot better. A lot has been done in this regard, but not enough - especially when it comes to public perception. Heck, most of my family is scared of immigrants (of all kinds) even though there has been only one immigrant related incident since the refugee crisis began and that was a missing migrant child.

But yes, socioeconomic factors are problematic in their own right and certainly not perfect. More and more precise data is always better to make these comparisons. The only thing I really wanted to shine a light on is that by only comparing rates, you come to an incorrect assumption. If we build policy and our treatment of asylum seekers solely on 'they are dangerous' we will only make the situation worse, especially for those refugees that are not criminals. Just scroll up and you will see people fleeing from war being characterized as thieves and rapists and worse. Generalization like that is the death of rational thought.

[Kuntantee]

In my experience the vast majority of them see themselves as turks and not as germans, quite a few even see it as an insult to call them german.

I was talking about the outlanders in this poll. Who are the outlanders in this poll? As for last part, it's normal. If you call an Anatolian Turk anything but Turk, it's pretty much an insult. It's not specific to Germans. According to my observation, this is specific to Anatolian Turks (and hence the italic part). I've got quit a bit of Cyprus/Iran and Azerbaijan Turk friends. They are fine with being called "Iranian/Irani, Azeri, Cypriot/Brit/Norweigan/you-name-it".

- - - Updated - - -

They are the classic fallback in times of peace for it, yes. Depending on where you live tbh, in the East most Turks are actually Kurdish Turks but traditionally the East dislikes anything that is not them. It is even dangerous to be a German just with visibly foreign genes in some parts even - and that's the real irony - if they share parts of the scepticism of the immediate cultural compatibility with the local subculture which can be characterized by a rural lifestyle where the highest type of event is the yearly Kirmes festival.

Looks like Kurds (please do not call someone who doesn't call himself/herself a Turk as Turk*) found the perfect match. If I know a bit about Kurds in Europe, they are not particularly found of the idea of being Turk or Turks in general.

*We have enough Turks causing shit in Europe and we don't need Kurds also causing shit and labeled as Turks. It's making everything harder for us, including getting a god damn visa.

[Kithelle]

1st phase : Fight tooth and nail in order to disprove the data.

Has begun.

They come from places where it's ok to stone women to death if they see a woman driving. It's not surprising to see those numbers. Especially when those same people have got no will to integrate themselves into our society.

Better watch out...you may be called a racist for using known facts as evidence.

[melodramocracy]

Racist statistics?

Black ink completely surrounded by white paper, if I had to guess.

[Hiricine]

Rates are more useful in some cases, but that requires them to be applied correctly. If you compare the rate of the general German population to that of the general refugee population in order to make comparisons like this, you are acting disingenuously. The two populations differ greatly in terms of age, sex, economic status etc. That is why we run experiments and the like with groups that are as similar in composition as possible. If you meet an immigrant and an ethnic German of the same age, sex, educational and economic background, the differences in threat levels may not be as poignant as you make them out to be. I say may because I do no have data that is sufficiently differentiated and neither have you.
To build a public opinion or even policy on such a basis is simply not prudent.

Also, you analogy falls completely flat. Most people who die to bee stings are those allergic to them. You will see people that know that they can die from one making a bee-line just as fast when they see a bee as they will when they see a shark. Well, technically, since they likely run faster than swim....

To the first point-- I actually agree that the data is largely insufficient, it doesn't help that the localities that often suffer the worst from problems in this regard refuse to collect data that may prove useful.

As far as the analogy goes, none are perfect, the "Sharks versus bees" is just an often cited one people use about sharks.

[Yriel]

I was talking about the outlanders in this poll. Who are the outlanders in this poll? As for last part, it's normal. If you call an Anatolian Turk anything but Turk, it's pretty much an insult. It's not specific to Germans. According to my observation, this is specific to Anatolian Turks (and hence the italic part). I've got quit a bit of Cyprus/Iran and Azerbaijan Turk friends. They are fine with being called "Iranian/Irani, Azeri, Cypriot/Brit/Norweigan/you-name-it".

And that is no surprise. From earliest childhood we are told that it is bad to be german. So why would the migrants want to see themselves as german when the germans themselves don't want to be german in the first place. Thats why you see posts from german teenagers asking how they can become foreigners because it's so much cooler to be a turk that it is to be a german.

[Kuntantee]

And that is no surprise. From earliest childhood we are told that it is bad to be german. So why would the migrants want to see themselves as german when the germans themselves don't want to be german in the first place. Thats why you see posts from german teenagers asking how they can become foreigners because it's so much cooler to be a turk that it is to be a german.

German teenagers want to be foreigner? Having hard times to believe it.

[Gryphoon]

Even though this is classic jealousy against the poor. A more correct approach would be to take a closer look at the social policies of your country in general unless you are the type that similar to the original AfD programme would argue for a zero-dimensional social net of benefits i.e. everyone not rich should be as poor as the poorest man in the country.

I don't argue for a zero-dimensional social net, and I'm not "jealous against the poor". I've never been rich, or even middle class. I've been on some of these benefits, because, unless you are a immigrant, you don't get all these. Namely, you don't get free new mobile phone, you don't get the right to TV or newspaper so you can see the news, and you don't get payed internet service. These you use your "entertainment" part of your benefits, which takes all of it and more bleeding into clothing and transportation that for them is free (free public transportation, a benefit I was "not entitled to", as they said it).