If North Korea goes ahead with its threat to fire ballistic missiles toward the U.S. territory of Guam, the order will come from Kim Jong Un himself.
The officials in charge of North Korea’s missile program could complete their preparations by next week and would then wait for the 33-year-old leader to decide what to do next.
Will Kim give the order to fire, potentially inviting retaliation from an American president who has his military “locked and loaded”?
This is not a question of technical capability. North Korea has already demonstrated that it has made great advances in its missile program and can theoretically now hit the U.S. mainland.
No, this is a question of strategy.
“The North Koreans have been very clear that they need his authorization. This is a moment for Kim Jong Un,” said Michael Madden, who runs the North Korea Leadership Watch website and closely studies Kim. “He may take it as an opportunity to prove himself, or as an opportunity to let cooler heads prevail.”
The Kim regime has a history of making bellicose threats that it cannot or does not make good on. This may well be one of those cases.
Or it might not. For starters, North Korea likes to mark important dates, and there are two approaching.
On Tuesday, North Korea will celebrate Liberation Day, commemorating the end of colonial rule by Japan — over which any Guam-bound missile would fly. Then on Aug. 21, South Korea and the United States will start annual military exercises that always antagonize North Korea.
The problem with trying to figure out what Kim might do in a situation like this is severely complicated by the fact that the outside world knows almost nothing about him.