2018 gerrymandering problem is really bad

[Milchshake]

The other polling thread had me thinking a bit more about ratfucking and gerrymandering in particular.
Polling averages suggest Democrats would get a little bit over 54 percent of the vote. That would be a big win. For context, Barack Obama won just under 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

But what does 54% of the votes get you... only 47% of the seats. Morris thinks 54 percent of the vote will translate to 206 seats, leaving Republicans with 229 seats and the majority.



Donald Trump’s approval ratings are bad, and congressional Republicans’ approval ratings are also bad. But so far, the GOP shows little sign of running scared on substance, and, critically, there’s little sign that they need to be running scared on substance. They're proposing incredibly unpopular legislation on healthcare and taxes. In no way will they be punished electorally for laws that a majority are against.

[GreenJesus]

The other polling thread had me thinking a bit more about ratfucking and gerrymandering in particular.
Polling averages suggest Democrats would get a little bit over 54 percent of the vote. That would be a big win. For context, Barack Obama won just under 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

But what does 54% of the votes get you... only 47% of the seats. Morris thinks 54 percent of the vote will translate to 206 seats, leaving Republicans with 229 seats and the majority.



Donald Trump’s approval ratings are bad, and congressional Republicans’ approval ratings are also bad. But so far, the GOP shows little sign of running scared on substance, and, critically, there’s little sign that they need to be running scared on substance. They're proposing incredibly unpopular legislation on healthcare and taxes. In no way will they be punished electorally for laws that a majority are against.

Why were you thinking about rats fucking? You should see someone about that.

[Lenonis]

Not just gerrymandering but also the extraordinary voter suppression the GOP is doing. A Texas voter ID law just got struck down for targeting minorities.... And it was a replacement for another law that got struck down.... And for every law struck down there are dozens of examples of other foul play.

[Kraenen]

Not just gerrymandering but also the extraordinary voter suppression the GOP is doing. A Texas voter ID law just got struck down for targeting minorities.... And it was a replacement for another law that got struck down.... And for every law struck down there are dozens of examples of other foul play.

It's kind of strange that got struck down. There's apparently 7 different ways of proving ID, and they don't require some gross amount of money. I mean it's not a big problem in general (voter fraud) but it doesn't seem like this is a great hassle for people. https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10...i-need-voting/

[Xeones]

So that is your whole basis for "2018 gerrymandering problem is really bad"?

It's millions of people getting their voice stolen.

[Blur4stuff]

I don't think most republicans will give a shit. They don't care if democracy is being perverted if it means they get to be in control. If they did then we wouldn't be in this position.

Only two things will fix this level of cheating: enormous turnout for dems or the supreme court.

[anveena]

Nice. Whatever is needed to keep getting republicans in.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Nice. Whatever is needed to keep getting republicans in.

You do know what they call people who seize power despite the democracy choosing otherwise?



Yes, this is from a past election. Guess what? These districts are still in effect.

Also, gotta love this heavily Democrat filled district that goes through 11 cities.

[Dontrike]

Last Week Tonight had a segment on this very issue. In the end it is certainly an issue, not just because of how it can screw voters over, but just because being able to do some of the silly horse shit is fucking annoying. When the people in charge can freely mold the way districts look to help others like them it is an issue no matter who is in charge.

[Mormolyce]

Gerrymandering is a direct result of a broken system.

Nice. Whatever is needed to keep getting republicans in.

Whatever you need to do to stop democracy from happening!

[Skroe]

The House and Senate Map don't matter in 2018, or even 2020. This is the only map that does.




There is no win condition, especially in 2018, for either party, that doesn't include locking down critical swing states in preparation for 2020 Census redistricting, that takes effect in 2022.

If Republicans Triumph here, they will lock in the 2020s as they did the 2010s. starting with 2012. If Democrats triumph, they'll reverse it.

It Republicans win the House and Senate, but lose Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Nevada, Wisconsin, Illinois and New Mexico governorships to Demcorats, they'll find themselves wiped out in the 2022 midterms and 2024 Presidential Election. It will be a catastrophe for them sandwiched between a short-term stay of execution. But they'd be a dead party walking, going into 2022.

If Democrats win the House and Senate, but manage to lose at least some of those key states, they'll enjoy nothing but misery in the 2020s. Exact same thing. Republicans will extend their post-2010 redistricting advantage.

Either way, focusing on who controls the House and Senate after their 2018 midterm is incredibly shortsighted. It basically doesn't matter. Why do I say this? Because unless Democrats can somehow get a supermajority in the Senate - and they won't any time soon - the only budgets that will be passed, which is to say, the only way anything gets done, will be like the 2 year deal signed by Obama after being passed by Republicans in late 2015, and the template for the 2018 budget that is likely to be passed. The EXACT same constraints that exist on Republicans exist on Democrats. The far left won't get anymore of what it likes than the far right, so the only budget that can pass has to appeal to both parties.

In other word,s get to know and love the 2 year deal budget blueprint. It's what budgets will look like for many, many years to come, regardless of which party controls which house of Congress.

Everything else? Minutiae. People can talk about regulations or some minor policy. I prefer to worry about how $4 trillion in taxpayer dollars are being spent. That means budget. And unless something dramatically changes, no matter who is President, we know exactly what that budget will look like plus or minus five percent for years to come.

[Thoughtful Trolli]

The House and Senate Map don't matter in 2018, or even 2020. This is the only map that does.




There is no win condition, especially in 2018, for either party, that doesn't include locking down critical swing states in preparation for 2020 Census redistricting, that takes effect in 2022.

If Republicans Triumph here, they will lock in the 2020s as they did the 2010s. starting with 2012. If Democrats triumph, they'll reverse it.

It Republicans win the House and Senate, but lose Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Nevada, Wisconsin, Illinois and New Mexico governorships to Demcorats, they'll find themselves wiped out in the 2022 midterms and 2024 Presidential Election. It will be a catastrophe for them sandwiched between a short-term stay of execution. But they'd be a dead party walking, going into 2022.

If Democrats win the House and Senate, but manage to lose at least some of those key states, they'll enjoy nothing but misery in the 2020s. Exact same thing. Republicans will extend their post-2010 redistricting advantage.

Either way, focusing on who controls the House and Senate after their 2018 midterm is incredibly shortsighted. It basically doesn't matter. Why do I say this? Because unless Democrats can somehow get a supermajority in the Senate - and they won't any time soon - the only budgets that will be passed, which is to say, the only way anything gets done, will be like the 2 year deal signed by Obama after being passed by Republicans in late 2015, and the template for the 2018 budget that is likely to be passed. The EXACT same constraints that exist on Republicans exist on Democrats. The far left won't get anymore of what it likes than the far right, so the only budget that can pass has to appeal to both parties.

In other word,s get to know and love the 2 year deal budget blueprint. It's what budgets will look like for many, many years to come, regardless of which party controls which house of Congress.

Everything else? Minutiae. People can talk about regulations or some minor policy. I prefer to worry about how $4 trillion in taxpayer dollars are being spent. That means budget. And unless something dramatically changes, no matter who is President, we know exactly what that budget will look like plus or minus five percent for years to come.

What you linked is not important. The important thing was making sure the republicans won this time so they could claim the three open supreme court seats, ensuring liberals couldn't destroy our system of laws with their infectious right to die in california and monsanto supercorp bullshit.

Those supreme court seats last for life so thankfully what had to be done was done even though it was painful. The bullets are out of the wound. What happens for the next indefinite amount of time, which is as long as members of the supreme court live, is going to be okay.

As for the OG topic posted by OP about gerrymandering: It is not a problem, will never be a problem, and any attempt to modify it claiming such modification is a fix would only harm everyone. You'd have a dictatorship ruled by california, and they're fucking whackjobs out there, so we'd all die. (cuz that's our right, they'd say as they kill us.)

Incontrovertible proof: Imagine if, in the next elections, 50,000,000 more American Citizens registered to vote and actually voted. Fifty Million. There are 400 Million people in America, and we're asking for a mere 1/8 of that to step up and vote. That's all. IF they did, gerrymandering wouldn't mean shit. Fix that, before anything else. The advocacy of any alternative solution is relatively insane, including your proposal to "fix gerrymandering."

Even if you're serious, you're mislead and fighting for the wrong cause and should check yourself before you wreck yourself.

[Kujako]

We know it's bad, but the voters are in favor of it, so long as it helps their "team" win the contest. So, not much we can do about it other than sue. Which has had some effect in some states.

[Bullettime]

It's kind of strange that got struck down. There's apparently 7 different ways of proving ID, and they don't require some gross amount of money. I mean it's not a big problem in general (voter fraud) but it doesn't seem like this is a great hassle for people. https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10...i-need-voting/

Requiring an ID isn't so much a problem. It's a problem when the same group requiring the ID also are found making efforts in making getting those IDs harder or are caught picking IDs that they know minorities are less likely to have.

They can require an ID and provide a bunch of options, but when they're also closing/restricting hours of DMVs in minority heavy areas and such, it becomes a huge problem and shows they're not passing the laws for the sake of election integrity.

The solution is just to provide a free government issued ID to all legal citizens but the people working to pass these ID laws have, on record in multiple states, voted against that.

[Milchshake]

It's millions of people getting their voice stolen.

Along with losing their voices, their government "representatives" are passing laws the people do not want. So how long can unrepresentative Democracy or Republic last?

Sorry that people on a politics subforum are not familiar with the term Ratfucking.
Ratfucking is an American slang term for political sabotage or dirty tricks. It was first brought to public attention by Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein in their book All the President's Men.
In more current usage it's a catchall for all kinds of sabotage than was mention in detail in posts above.


Similar to how we used the term in the service. When some assholes in inventory would go through a crate of MREs and jack all of the M&Ms and Tootsie Rolls. Then put the MRE's back.

[cubby]

Not just gerrymandering but also the extraordinary voter suppression the GOP is doing. A Texas voter ID law just got struck down for targeting minorities.... And it was a replacement for another law that got struck down.... And for every law struck down there are dozens of examples of other foul play.

I agree - the GOP is finishing up a decades long war on keeping people who vote against them from voting. The TX voter ID law is just one of many examples, on many fronts, where they are preventing people from voting.

There is hope that in 2018 the Dems can take back a good portion of state houses and re-write the gerrymandering laws. Then those will take effect for 2020 and hopefully see some honest vote results.

[Allybeboba]

The other polling thread had me thinking a bit more about ratfucking and gerrymandering in particular.
Polling averages suggest Democrats would get a little bit over 54 percent of the vote. That would be a big win. For context, Barack Obama won just under 53 percent of the vote in 2008.

But what does 54% of the votes get you... only 47% of the seats. Morris thinks 54 percent of the vote will translate to 206 seats, leaving Republicans with 229 seats and the majority.



Donald Trump’s approval ratings are bad, and congressional Republicans’ approval ratings are also bad. But so far, the GOP shows little sign of running scared on substance, and, critically, there’s little sign that they need to be running scared on substance. They're proposing incredibly unpopular legislation on healthcare and taxes. In no way will they be punished electorally for laws that a majority are against.

Just curious, what are the approval ratings for the congressional Democrats as compared to Republicans?

- - - Updated - - -

I agree - the GOP is finishing up a decades long war on keeping people who vote against them from voting. The TX voter ID law is just one of many examples, on many fronts, where they are preventing people from voting.

There is hope that in 2018 the Dems can take back a good portion of state houses and re-write the gerrymandering laws. Then those will take effect for 2020 and hopefully see some honest vote results.

We all know both sides will generally vote along party lines. It is in their best individual interest to do this. Their is not "honest" voting in DC.
I shall leave you all to your echo chamber.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

- - - Updated - - -

What you linked is not important. The important thing was making sure the republicans won this time so they could claim the three open supreme court seats, ensuring liberals couldn't destroy our system of laws with their infectious right to die in california and monsanto supercorp bullshit.

Those supreme court seats last for life so thankfully what had to be done was done even though it was painful. The bullets are out of the wound. What happens for the next indefinite amount of time, which is as long as members of the supreme court live, is going to be okay.

As for the OG topic posted by OP about gerrymandering: It is not a problem, will never be a problem, and any attempt to modify it claiming such modification is a fix would only harm everyone. You'd have a dictatorship ruled by california, and they're fucking whackjobs out there, so we'd all die. (cuz that's our right, they'd say as they kill us.)

Incontrovertible proof: Imagine if, in the next elections, 50,000,000 more American Citizens registered to vote and actually voted. Fifty Million. There are 400 Million people in America, and we're asking for a mere 1/8 of that to step up and vote. That's all. IF they did, gerrymandering wouldn't mean shit. Fix that, before anything else. The advocacy of any alternative solution is relatively insane, including your proposal to "fix gerrymandering."

Even if you're serious, you're mislead and fighting for the wrong cause and should check yourself before you wreck yourself.

Not even close to 400,000,000 of those Americans are eligible to vote.

[cubby]

We all know both sides will generally vote along party lines. It is in their best individual interest to do this. Their is not "honest" voting in DC.
I shall leave you all to your echo chamber.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

In this case, just voting along party lines, because of literally illegal gerrymandering (where they actually used studies on how to disenfranchise voters to write up the rules), gets you a dishonest result. Hence why the courts keep striking it down.

Plus all the other shit the GOP does to keep the Dem voter base down.

[Milchshake]

Just curious, what are the approval ratings for the congressional Democrats as compared to Republicans?

I heard Democrats were loudly applauded by their constituents during townhalls, after defending Obamacare.

Whereas Republicans are largely hiding from townhalls in their gerrymandered districts, after trying to kill Obamacare.

Really paints a picture of what bad representation looks like.

[cubby]

Not even close to 400,000,000 of those Americans are eligible to vote.

Then how many are?