Hurricane Harvey could be a defining moment for Trump's presidency.

[Ripster42]

I hope Trump's administration is competent enough to deal with this, but I hope it's not a catalyst that leads to his re-election in 2020.

FEMA is largely staffed by obama holdovers. A lot of positions are vacant though. So pretty much any positive from this is due to obama holdovers, any negatives are because trump sucks at getting nominees for his appointed positions.

[Elba]

TBH I'm kinda giddy to see what a total cluster fuck this could be.

[cubby]

Heard this on the news and it makes a lot of sense.

Bush's terrible response to Katrina in 2005 is a big part of what ruined his second term.

Conversely, Obamas very good handling of Hurricane Sandy played a big part in securing his reelection in 2012, as well as governor Christie's landslide reelection in 2013.

Now that the strongest hurricane to hit the Texas coast in nearly a century is about to come, Trump's handling of it could make or break his presidency. And we all know how good trump has been at handling problems so far, right?

Bush was blamed for poor planning, but it wasn't his fault on the merits. It was his responsibility because he was at the helm when it happened, of course, and people rightly blamed him for what happened.

But since then, the U.S. has significantly improved it's disaster preparedness, partly in response to how badly Katrina was handled. Hence Obama looked great because of the changes since Katrina (he also did well in acting as a President should, and saying the right things, and then getting the fuck out of the way while the experts did their jobs - just what a President should do).

Trump, in my guessing opinion, will do just fine. He just needs to say platitudes, show the flag (so to speak) and then let the experts do their jobs. I think the way he could mess it up is by saying something stupid. But this is a hard situation to do that in (even Bush fared well, with all the fuck-upery going on around him) - so he'll probably come out ahead.

[Ripster42]

Bush was blamed for poor planning, but it wasn't his fault on the merits. It was his responsibility because he was at the helm when it happened, of course, and people rightly blamed him for what happened.

But since then, the U.S. has significantly improved it's disaster preparedness, partly in response to how badly Katrina was handled. Hence Obama looked great because of the changes since Katrina (he also did well in acting as a President should, and saying the right things, and then getting the fuck out of the way while the experts did their jobs - just what a President should do).

Trump, in my guessing opinion, will do just fine. He just needs to say platitudes, show the flag (so to speak) and then let the experts do their jobs. I think the way he could mess it up is by saying something stupid. But this is a hard situation to do that in (even Bush fared well, with all the fuck-upery going on around him) - so he'll probably come out ahead.

FEMA, the NOAA, and the DHS are all without appointed heads thanks to trump. If this goes poorly, it's solely on trump.

[Edge-]

FEMA, the NOAA, and the DHS are all without appointed heads thanks to trump. If this goes poorly, it's solely on trump.

FEMA got a director in late June, actually. This is largely being viewed as his first test as well - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...his-first-test

[Breccia]

FEMA, the NOAA, and the DHS are all without appointed heads thanks to trump. If this goes poorly, it's solely on trump.

I thought the head of FEMA was this guy. Near as I can tell, you're right about DHS.

EDIT: God dammit, I got @Edge- ed out!

- - - Updated - - -

By the way, Blake Farenthold, Texas GOP Rep giving a live interview with CNN and MSNBC in the middle of a goddamn hurricane. Seriously look at this shit!



That's the same kinda thing that got Chris Christie re-elected.

[Edge-]

Reminder that he's the same guy that "joked" about having pistol duels with the female Republican senators who voted against Trumpcare/repeal. Also pictured in a onesie with Playboy bunnies.

[cubby]

FEMA, the NOAA, and the DHS are all without appointed heads thanks to trump. If this goes poorly, it's solely on trump.

Oh, I agree - no doubt. I just don't think it will go badly because all those agencies, at least in respect to disaster response in continent, are ready and in good condition. Not having heads doesn't mean they won't work and respond effectively.

[Breccia]

Reminder that he's the same guy that "joked" about having pistol duels with the female Republican senators who voted against Trumpcare/repeal. Also pictured in a onesie with Playboy bunnies.

Fair enough, but I doubt his district will remember that, over this.

Also:



TIME just got literal.

[Ripster42]

FEMA got a director in late June, actually. This is largely being viewed as his first test as well - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...his-first-test

Ya, I was reading the other thread when someone claimed they'd gotten one. Came back here to correct myself.

DHS and NOAA still without heads.

[Breccia]

Even CNN is begging Trump not to fuck this up. That's how big of a deal this is. It's the biggest storm in 12 years, we need our A-Game.

Hurricane Harvey is destined to be the first major homeland security and emergency management crisis the Trump administration has faced. And, ironically, it is at this moment that President Donald Trump will be judged on how well he lets a bureaucracy he so often maligns or denigrates actually do its job.

By all accounts, Hurricane Harvey will deliver a gut punch of rain, wind and storm surges in Texas. And though weather, like a teenager's mood, is unpredictable, this storm is not slowing down -- it is rapidly gaining strength, and forecasters say it's likely to be a Category 3 hurricane when it makes landfall.

Harvey is expected to hit the Texas coast somewhere near Corpus Christi Friday night and potentially linger there for a few days. Texas residents are bracing for the potential of serious danger and significant damage.

President Trump, this is not a test.

Though there have been many crises to speak of during Trump's tenure, for the most part they have been self-created. Think, for example, of the first days of the administration: a Muslim ban planned in secret, implemented in haste, with no operational input -- all ultimately leading to rallies, protests and lawsuits.

This administration is about to face a challenge from without -- an act-of-God type challenge -- and it will be judged on whether it has sufficiently nurtured and empowered the bureaucracy -- which it has often dubbed the "swamp" -- to allow it to do what it needs to do: that is, to support local and state planning to prepare for the storm and respond once it hits.

While the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) serves as the point agency for any major crisis like this, its job is to engage the entire federal apparatus to lean in to help the response effort, but not to lead it. Since Hurricane Katrina, federal, state and local agencies have spent considerable time and effort focusing on unified preparedness and response activities. They have the plans; they know what to do.

The ultimate lesson of Hurricane Katrina's notorious, slow federal response was a term adopted by President Barack Obama's FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate: Go Big, Go Fast. We are about to see if that will happen. In this regard, politics are relevant. President Trump's insistence that a Mexican-US border wall will be built -- by the US and not by Mexico -- has meant that budget requests are aimed at steering homeland security money away from FEMA and local and state response planning (commonly referred to as preparedness efforts) and toward wall construction. These are budget priorities that will have real world consequences for those on the ground.

The President faces an additional test in whether he is able to use his role to display the urgency and compassion so many Texas residents need right now. For Trump, there will be no one to blame in this scenario; Mother Nature isn't on Twitter.

And the President's tendencies to focus on an "us-them" narrative about everything from health care to white supremacy does not have an audience when a house is under water. Trump, guided by former Homeland Security Secretary and now Chief of Staff John Kelly, will have to ensure that the federal government supports local efforts but does not micromanage a response.

Government works. Those of us in disaster relief and homeland security have seen how the people who commit to its functioning in so many different capacities can save lives and protect property. And it is at moments like this -- when a benign tropical storm named Harvey swells into something ominous -- that Trump and his team must recognize that there is a great deal of value in "the swamp."

[Stormdash]

This hurricane is hitting a red state. Trump will do what we expect presidents to do. The true test of his presidency would be if a natural disaster hit a blue state. Especially if it was California.

Possibly projecting after the slow, largely ambivalent response to Nashville floods in 2010?

As I recall, the administration was responsive to California's near catastrophe in February when the Oroville Dam's spillway threatened to fail. A quarter-billion in federal emergency relief was given to help add repairs to the (self-inflicted due to poor design/construction) spillway.

- - - Updated - - -

FEMA is largely staffed by obama holdovers. A lot of positions are vacant though. So pretty much any positive from this is due to obama holdovers, any negatives are because trump sucks at getting nominees for his appointed positions.

Wow, let the sandbagging begin early.

[Jeezy911]

The storm itself is actually not too bad, looks like maybe a Cat 2 at landfall. The issue, of course is that it may stall out and dump rain for days.

[Hobb]

I'm sure sure Trump will accept the challenge.....There's no way he's going to allow a hurricane to outdo him in damaging the country.

[Deleted]

So.....literally blaming Trump for the weather..and I suppose it was sparked by Putin??

[Azadina]

It should be a defining moment for Trump. Was he right in climate stuff being Chinese hoax or not? Tune in to find out. Hoax hurricanes do no damage.

[Edge-]

So.....literally blaming Trump for the weather..and I suppose it was sparked by Putin??

Who is blaming Trump for the weather?

[Ripster42]

Wow, let the sandbagging begin early.

I mean, there are a lot of empty positions. That's trumps fault. If fema does a bad job because it's poorly staffed, that's trumps fault. The fema staff that remains is largely comprised of obama era holdovers. So if they can do a passable job even with the understaffing problem trump has given them, that's not trump's boon. That's due to obama's people.

[Stormdash]

I mean, there are a lot of empty positions. That's trumps fault. If fema does a bad job because it's poorly staffed, that's trumps fault. The fema staff that remains is largely comprised of obama era holdovers. So if they can do a passable job even with the understaffing problem trump has given them, that's not trump's boon. That's due to obama's people.

Depends on the positions. Civil service positions, stuff run through OPM, that's the administration's fault for not managing it. Political appointments are out of his control other than naming nominees, since the RESIST process is to keep down the pace of all appointments, big or small, to a total of 60 hours of floor debate in the Senate.

Incidentally, with a civil service of well over a million, most of those people aren't "Obama's people", either, since it's not like FEMA or any other agency's long serving staff got kicked out from Bush. There are probably people in the civil service jobs there for every President as far back as Carter.

[Ripster42]

Depends on the positions. Civil service positions, stuff run through OPM, that's the administration's fault for not managing it. Political appointments are out of his control other than naming nominees, since the RESIST process is to keep down the pace of all appointments, big or small, to a total of 60 hours of floor debate in the Senate.

Incidentally, with a civil service of well over a million, most of those people aren't "Obama's people", either, since it's not like FEMA or any other agency's long serving staff got kicked out from Bush. There are probably people in the civil service jobs there for every President as far back as Carter.

Trump just straight up hasn't nominated people for the leadership jobs. He likes to complain about "the opposition," but that's not the problem. The problem is trump not getting names to the senate. So the leadership jobs are mostly staffed by obama's people.