North Korea: Not This Garbage Again

[Deleted]

What does this guy even want?

To remain in power.
That is why the North Koreans have been acting up the last few years. Their main rival (America) has been overthrowing Dictators and beefing up its presence in Asia, and its policians have been joking,talking about bombing them. That is why the NORKS have been working on going Nuclear only very recently.

Kim has no real option, but to play hardball.
He appears weak in N Korea. He gets removed, by one of the factions.
He appears weak to the Americans. He faces invasion.
He appears weak to the Chinese. They reinstate all those pro China Officials he executed, making him lose power and putting him at risk at being overthrown.

Nukes solve all those problems.
The Best Korea strongest Korea factions, are happy because they got WMDs.
Introduces MAD, making the US extremely unlikely to invade.
By doing these tests despite Chinas objections, he is telling the Chinese that he is not their play thing.

[Poopymonster]

Even if it wasn't, it's at least ten times stronger than anything else they've tested.



We'll have to see how Russia and China react to this. The latest was this, from yesterday:

“The region’s problems should only be settled through a direct dialogue of all the parties concerned without any preconditions. Provocations, pressure and militarist and insulting rhetoric are a dead-end road,” -- Putin

Putin was likely talking about the "fire and fury" bit, not the "But, Kim Jong Un, I respect the fact that I believe he is starting to respect us," from Trump's AZ rally.

Is Vlad going be uber pissy over the recent closing of their consulates in the US is a legit question.
It's not like he can say "And the adoptions stop even more!" as a response, and this could be an opportunity to do so.

Potential conspiracy theory: Vladdy got Lil Kim the shit to do it as a reaction to the consulate closings.

[CostinR]

Fucking retarded statement. Theres cities with 10 mill people within spitting distance, ofc the radiation will be bad.

There is no "clean" winning equation here. If the US wants to take out NK then SK gets smashed.

25 million people live close enough, but modern nuclear weapons used by the US don't emit that much radiation.

Until North Korea strikes someone directly, China won't do a thing.

You honestly think that if China really cared, they would let nuclear tests happening right next to their door?

This doesn't contradicting my statement that China would not interfere if the US decided to exterminate boy wonder and his brainwashed army.

[Deja Thoris]

but modern nuclear weapons used by the US don't emit that much radiation.

Lul what?

Do you believe the shite you write?

[Paranoid Android]

Thank goodness the Orange Turd is attacking our ally right now on a trade agreement with South Korea.

[Breccia]

So let;s see:
-- Russia condemns the test EDIT: So did China, missed that, my bad
-- China calls for more diplomacy
-- the US is talking about sanctions, including cutting off their oil supply
-- we're talking with Japan about specifics
-- South Korea wants stronger actions, specifically from the UN
-- and Trump says North Korea's words and actions (isn't that my line?) are very hostile and dangerous to the US, and also slapped China by saying they've been of little to no help.

Not exactly "fire and fury" and that's fine by me. I'd still like this to be resolved diplomatically....if that's possible.

[Felya]

So let;s see:
-- Russia condemns the test
-- China calls for more diplomacy
-- the US is talking about sanctions, including cutting off their oil supply
-- we're talking with Japan about specifics
-- South Korea wants stronger actions, specifically from the UN
-- and Trump says North Korea's words and actions (isn't that my line?) are very hostile and dangerous to the US, and also slapped China by saying they've been of little to no help.

Not exactly "fire and fury" and that's fine by me. I'd still like this to be resolved diplomatically....if that's possible.

Can this be solved by naming Kim to every major sports hall of fame? Give him the masters, with him having the best score in history. Have him dunk on Shaq and Kobe? Intercept a pass from Tom Brady? That seems like it might do it...

Has Trump called Denis Rodman yet?

[Kiri]

We're going to see the first ever declaration of war through twitter.

What a time to be alive.

Actually, I fear that Trump might try a power play if it ever comes to that. Attack first, cite the need that he could not go public because of the artillery situation and Congress is forced to agree to the war ex-post. I would not put it beyond him - and would not put it beyond the current Republican party to go with it. Still pretty unlikely, though.

What I see here is that they just hope for NK to make an error when testing their stuff, hit Japanese or Guamese (pretty sure that is wrong) soil, even if no one is injured, and take that as a declaration of war. The president does have second-strike authority.

[CostinR]

Attack first, cite the need that he could not go public because of the artillery situation and Congress is forced to agree to the war ex-post. I would not put it beyond him - and would not put it beyond the current Republican party to go with it. Still pretty unlikely, though.

Trump contrary to what you might believe has every legal right do just that: Congress doesn't dictate whether or not he can use America's nuclear arsenal and conventionally? As long as he reports to Congress within a matter of days he's well within the legal rights of the War Powers Act.

What is likely however is that like the Syria strikes he will give Congress a heads up behind the scenes.

[Kraenen]

Thank goodness the Orange Turd is attacking our ally right now on a trade agreement with South Korea.

Not sure why you find it acceptable to attack orange skin, but okay...

[Adam Jensen]

Not sure why you find it acceptable to attack orange skin, but okay...

Because it's not normal, not natural, and entirely his choice to overdo the tanning and the bronzer like that.

[Collegeguy]

The solution? Do nothing and ignore them.

If they end up nuking actual territory, than strike.

They will make a lot of expenditures which they can really afford to and will eventually go quiet.

[Breccia]

The solution? Do nothing and ignore them.

I do not believe the international community will accept this as an option. Doesn't matter if it will work or not.

[-Nurot]

Not sure why you find it acceptable to attack orange skin, but okay...

First what does that have to do with North Korea?

Second, probably because no one is born with orange skin. Making fun of an individuals skin color because of their race or skin disease/pigmentation problem is pretty abhorrent. Making fun of someone because they painted/fake tanned themselves a different color is not.

It's actually pretty funny that conservatives made fun of the women who was white, but pretended to be and identified her self as being black, but now evidently they believe imaginary skin colors should be protected from ridicule.

What color do you identify as? Blue?

[Breccia]

Trump's most recent specific suggestion -- more specific than the passive-aggressive "we'll see" attempt to un-shoulder the blamde that we've heard before -- is the US stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea.

Which would almost certainly include China, #1 importer to and #3 importer from the United States.

I mean, yeah, it's diplomatic and it's aggressive, but I'm not sure that's going to work.

[Alindra]

What color do you identify as? Blue?

What's wrong with blue?

[Breccia]

A former NSC director weighs in.

Trump has made a bad North Korea situation even worse

Reports this morning that North Korea appears to have carried out its sixth nuclear test and last week's launch of an intermediate missile over Japan have highlighted both the growing danger of the North Korea situation and the complete failure of President Trump's approach to it. The President's inflammatory rhetoric, unenforceable threats, and strategic inconsistency have made a bad situation even worse, weakened America and our allies, and emboldened North Korea. America and the world will be far better off if President Trump starts behaving less like Kim Jong Un and develops a real strategy for addressing this growing crisis.

The world long ago grew accustomed to the belligerent behavior of North Korea's Kim family, so more of their same aggression is hardly a shock. But in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's recent statements threatening North Korea with "fire and fury like the world has never seen," and his string of World Wrestling Federation-style taunts, we are all starting to come to terms with the implications of America being led by its own Kim.

Of course, there are limits to the comparison: The American Kim is not committing "crimes against humanity," enslaving more than 120,000 of his own people in brutal prison camps, and executing his perceived enemies.

And certainly, even though both nation's leaders are threatening the other with nuclear annihilation, nuclear weapons in the hands of a heinous and ruthless regime like North Korea's pose a far greater threat to the world. These weapons could be used to blackmail other countries at best and extract revenge during a time of regime collapse at worst.

But the in many ways mirror image leaders of the United States and North Korea are together making a terrible situation even worse.

Trump is correct to recognize that North Korea's nuclear weapons pose a real threat to the United States and its allies and that it would be ideal if Pyongyang could be somehow convinced to denuclearize. But as I wrote in my CNN Opinion piece last week, the only ways that North Korea will give up its weapons is if its leaders come to believe the cost of maintaining nuclear weapons is greater than the cost of giving them up -- or if those leaders are overthrown.

Because nuclear weapons provide North Korea's regime with far more international leverage, prestige, and security than most any other investment they could make, arriving at this conclusion would require the North Koreans to believe either (1) that the United States would be willing and able to engage in a full-scale preemptive war with North Korea designed to topple the North Korean government and is willing to risk massive US and allied casualties, the destruction of the US-South Korea alliance, and a potential military conflict with China in doing so, or (2) that China would be willing to completely cut off its food, energy, and trade lifeline to North Korea in the absence of denuclearization.

Despite Donald Trump's absurd, dangerous, and extremely unhelpful huffing and puffing (and tweeting), there is no preemptive military option for the United States other than all out war. That's why US Secretary of Defense James Mattis has called this possibility "catastrophic" and "tragic on an unbelievable scale." That's also why the North Koreans feel so comfortable calling President Trump's bluff only minutes after he has drawn his red lines.

Because preemptive military action is not a credible option, getting China to pressure North Korea to change its behavior is the only logical strategy for the United States and its allies.

Unfortunately, through its strategic incoherence, general incompetence, poor decisions and dangerous bombast, the Trump administration has weakened most of America's alliances, undermined US credibility, and significantly empowered its adversaries. In spite of the recent UN sanctions, the Trump administration's overall weakness and perceived untrustworthiness make pressuring China all the more difficult.

It's not too late for the US to invest in a strategy of pressuring China to do more by raising the costs to China of continuing its tacit support for North Korea, but doing so would require a massive shift in the functioning and behavior of the Trump administration that seems a long way from the current chaos.

Such a policy would require working far more closely and respectfully with allies South Korea and Japan and strengthening missile defense capabilities in both countries that would secondarily undermine China's own nuclear deterrent, encouraging a Japanese military buildup, building greater leverage with China by resuscitating the strategically critical Trans Pacific Partnership, and a host of other painstaking steps the Trump administration has so far failed to take. This policy would also require meaningful dialogue with Beijing about what might come after a North Korean regime collapse and how Chinese strategic interests could be respected under such a scenario. And America's President would need to behave less like his North Korean counterpart and more like a responsible leader.

Even with all of this, it would still be tough to convince China to risk the collapse of its North Korean ally unless China comes to believe for its own reasons that it would be better off with a Korea reunified under South Korean law than it would be with the current situation. If logic is a guide, China may someday arrive at this conclusion, but it will probably not be soon.

Regime change could also potentially lead to denuclearization. As I've written elsewhere, it's a fair bet the North Korean regime will eventually collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. But the regime has survived over seven decades and totalitarian governments can be remarkably stable, at least until they are not.

Because there are no good options, the most likely outcome of this crisis will be an eventual US policy drift toward a de facto recognition of North Korean nukes and a policy of containment similar in some ways to that once used on the USSR. This will likely lead to a nuclear arms race in Asia and lots of other very bad outcomes, but it may wind up being the only choice for now.

But there's also the possibility that the hazardous combination of two nuclear powers, the US and North Korea, each led by a bombastic, aggressive leader spouting fighting words to compensate for domestic weakness, could increase the chances of dangerous miscalculations and unpredictable outcomes.

North Korea's Kim is less constrained by his government institutions than is Trump, but we do not yet fully know how effectively America's governance culture and institutions can moderate the dangerous, destabilizing, and mercurial impulses of the US President. If those institutions fail and America's foreign policy comes to match its leader's unconstrained compulsions, North Korea could be the least of our problems.

Bolded for emphasis.

[CostinR]

I mean, yeah, it's diplomatic and it's aggressive, but I'm not sure that's going to work.

China can't afford to be cut off from US trade. Had this exact conversation two days ago with a friend who suggested it would be the best option to force China's hand but that he doubted Trump would ever do since it would REALLY anger the US business community.

After what North Korea just did, NO ONE is going to stop Trump from doing this. Hell Democrats are pushing for cutting all of North Korea's oil or this:

http://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-t...s-on-countries

[Breccia]

After what North Korea just did, NO ONE is going to stop Trump from doing this. Hell Democrats are pushing for cutting all of North Korea's oil or this:

I don't think that's true. I think with China and Russia both condemning the test, and asking NK to come back to the bargaining table, and China willing to add more sanctions, I don't think everyone in the federal government will say "Not good enough, cut them both off 100%". It's not like relations with China or Russia are all that great now, unilaterally cutting off all trade will make it a lot worse.

And I don't think that "Democrats want to cut off oil" translates into "therefore everyone wants to cut off all business with NK and also all business with all countries that do business with NK".

I have heard "China needs us more than we need them" and for one, I'm not sure I believe that 100%, but for two, the US needs the world more than the world needs the US, at least, when it comes to trade. I don't like the idea of China, already nearly hostile to us, deciding to become our greatest competitor by underbidding to our remaining trade partners -- trade partners that, also, are feeling less than thrilled with Trump's behavior and policies. I've been saying, the world should just starve the US out for a few years. It'll hurt them, but it'll cripple us.

[Collegeguy]

What would be messed up is if NK tests a nuclear missile and it fails or malfunctions during reentry and aims for territory by accident. They are not exactly dependable or responsible at this.

Would make things spiral out of control pretty fast.