The US will embark on an aggressive effort to tighten North Korea’s isolation on Monday with a call for an oil embargo and a partial naval blockade.
A draft United Nations resolution seen by the Observer would also block textile exports and the hiring of North Korean labour by foreign countries. The American delegation has called for the UN security council to debate the draft, in an attempt to force decisive action following last Sunday’s massive nuclear test of a bomb, Pyongyang’s sixth.
The most striking language in the resolution authorises naval vessels of any UN member state to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying banned cargo and to use “all necessary measures to carry out such inspections”. The implications of such a resolution would be far-reaching. Any attempt to board or divert a North Korean vessel could trigger an exchange of fire.
As well as banning any exports of “crude oil, condensates, refined petroleum products, and natural gas liquids” to North Korea, the draft resolution calls for a prohibition on the import of textiles and an end to the hiring of North Korean nationals, on the grounds that the regime uses the foreign currency earned “to support its prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programmes”.
Both Russia and China employ cheap North Korean labour. In Russia they work in logging camps and construction sites, helping build a new football stadium in St Petersburg that will be used in the World Cup next year.
The US draft measure would also freeze the assets of Kim Jong-un and the top leadership in Pyongyang.
Such a dramatic tightening of the economic vice is likely to meet resistance from China, which is anxious to avoid driving its embattled neighbour to the point of complete collapse; and Russia, which is promoting itself as a broker in the Korean standoff and has suggested that a new set of sanctions is “premature”.
“Up to now, the Chinese and the Russians have tried to keep on giving the US just enough to keep Trump playing the UN game,” said Richard Gowan, an expert on the UN at the European Council for Foreign Relations. “The question is what happens with an extraordinarily hardline resolution and US pressure to do something quickly.”
Gowan believes that “the Chinese are willing to consider some measures”, adding that the Russians are unlikely to veto a resolution on their own. However, any compromise resolution is likely to fall a long way short of the US draft measures, in terms of its impact on North Korea.
“All sides want to keep this in the council. And, for all the talk, the US doesn’t actually want a war here,” Gowan said. “At some point, they are going to have to compromise or walk away from the UN.”
The Trump administration claims to have a “plan B” if the UN resolution fails. The president has threatened to cut off trade with any country that continues to do business with North Korea. And on Wednesday, the US treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said documentation had been prepared to make that threat real if UN diplomacy failed.
“I have an executive order prepared that’s ready to go to the president that would authorise me to stop doing trade, put sanctions on anybody that does trade with North Korea, and the president will consider that at the appropriate time once he gives the UN time to act,” Mnuchin told reporters.