Probability of BlizzCon Next Expansion reveal

[DeicideUH]

As of today's announcement, let's bump it up to 100, we got proof.

There's always the chance of a major disaster ruining plans, lol.

[rda]

As of today's announcement, let's bump it up to 100, we got proof.

What announcement? (Is there one in Ion's video? I will watch it then.)

[Blayze]

What announcement?

The Year in Review Blizzcon video, where Ion basically said "what's next for WoW? See you at Blizzcon."

[ReleaseDay]

100% or there will be depressing times in WoW for the next 2 years.

[rda]

The Year in Review Blizzcon video, where Ion basically said "what's next for WoW? See you at Blizzcon."

Thanks. Yes, I guess that's something. As in, he might have meant something other than the expansion, but that would be a bit ridiculous (everyone is waiting on news on the expansion plus it's already time plus we are facing a period of no content again) and so he probably meant the expansion.

[Aeula]

0%

It just won't happen. No chance. Not at all. 0.

[SilenceRedo]

That would mean another content drought of 9-10 months.

It will ALWAYS happen. Just be glad it isn't 15 months like MoP or WoD. Cata and Wotlk had a year of content drought. I dunno why people expects not to happen.

I seem to remember that the gap from Hellfire Citadel to next expansion was seen as to long. And that was 8 months, including the time pre-patch was active.

In which world do you live in mate? Hellfire Citadel was released mid to late Jun 2015, and Legion Launched Aug 30 2016. That's 14 and a half months of the same raid.

[Tartys]

15 years ago, pretty sure the PR/Market people don't work there anymore and if they do, they have learned that June and July are "bad" months. Majority of AAA games gets not released in those summer months. Check yourself, if it was false 16,66% of AAA games would have been released in 2016 in June and July.

For reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_in_video_gaming

Didn't spot a single blockbuster (AAA) in June and July 2016.

And if you want to go by metacritic hits, only 1 out of 19 games have been released in 2016 in June/July that were above 85 score, that's also not 16,66%.

ROTFL!

Why the hell if you release a game at the end of May is good (24th may Overwatch) but 2 weeks later is not? D

Blizzard never care so much about that:
StarCraft II: Wings of Liberty was released at the end of July (2010) and Heroes of the Storm in early June (2015).

Also, because any AAA console/pc game hit the market during June-July 2016, that doest mean that any other AAA games was published during that period of time in the past years...

We are speaking about a "game" that is already on the market since 2004, is not a game that need to find the best spot to be released to catch players and deal with competitors. Wow already got milions of players and there are any others MMO (aside from FF14) outside, infact we got also severals Content Patch released during summer...

and btw, is not the marketing that decide when the games is ready in Blizzard.. they motto was alway: "done when it's done."

The fact that you are compared the all the games published only during 2016 for all kind of support and genre is hilarious. There are moments of the year more suitable... but think how fun could be if all the games came out only before Christmas DD

[Deleted]

Uhm, not really? I mean, you normally give about 4-6 months for a raid. Then there would be a crossover patch which would be a couple of months too (1-3).

Does a drought start from when it last rained or when you water supply runs out?

[Queen of Hamsters]

It will ALWAYS happen. Just be glad it isn't 15 months like MoP or WoD. Cata and Wotlk had a year of content drought. I dunno why people expects not to happen.

Exactly.

Besides, there's literally nothing about Legion that says "it'll be 14 months of nothing new"... We've had more content patches delivered in 1 year of this expansion than through the entire lifetime of other expansions, and the filler patches could very well be on the way beyond Antorus opening up.

Of course, the people functioning in the way described in my sig, won't ever be happy. Even if we had 3 months of "no new content", they'd then sit and complain about how the short downtime meant stressing to finish shit up...

[shammypie]

Wow a lot of hopefuls here. The real probability is around 50%. At most you will get a general overview or a video cut scene. The final tier is about to drop so there will be more about that then the next expac. Blizzard will give you just enough to make you want to keep playing but it's entirely likely they will wait to announce it as it's over a year until it will drop.

[Lochton]

Does a drought start from when it last rained or when you water supply runs out?

Then the water supply runs out.

And if we talk water supply, then the raid is 4-6 months of water supply and the pre-patch is the running late water truck before the next rain. If you wish to talk agricultural.

[Queen of Hamsters]

Wow a lot of hopefuls here. The real probability is around 50%. At most you will get a general overview or a video cut scene. The final tier is about to drop so there will be more about that then the next expac. Blizzard will give you just enough to make you want to keep playing but it's entirely likely they will wait to announce it as it's over a year until it will drop.

Hah, we shall see.

Didn't sound like they won't give us anything but a teaser when listening to Ion.

[SilenceRedo]

Wow a lot of hopefuls here. The real probability is around 50%. At most you will get a general overview or a video cut scene. The final tier is about to drop so there will be more about that then the next expac. Blizzard will give you just enough to make you want to keep playing but it's entirely likely they will wait to announce it as it's over a year until it will drop.

The final Tier has nothing to do with it. ICC went live after Cataclysm announcement at blizzcon. It has always been that way.

[Deleted]

Relative to other expansions you could interpret the "content drought" as starting in August when 7.3 hit live. The vast majority of the work on Antorus is done and in the game files, it's mostly just encounter and spec balance tuning remaining. It's pretty likely that the majority of the Legion team moved onto the next expansion as soon as 7.3 was launched. It's actually a really smart way of doing things, Blizz can get to work on the next expansion while we still have something important to look forward to in the current expansion.

[Deleted]

Then the water supply runs out.

And if we talk water supply, then the raid is 4-6 months of water supply and the pre-patch is the running late water truck before the next rain. If you wish to talk agricultural.

Isn't a water supply something you have in case of a drought?

[Icoblablubb]

about the same chance as D3 stays the way it is since RoS so 100%

[unbound]

Wow a lot of hopefuls here. The real probability is around 50%. At most you will get a general overview or a video cut scene. The final tier is about to drop so there will be more about that then the next expac. Blizzard will give you just enough to make you want to keep playing but it's entirely likely they will wait to announce it as it's over a year until it will drop.

50%? lol...no

As I mentioned earlier, they will either be announcing the next expansion or they will be announcing the long-term retirement of WoW. There is pretty much zero chance of no announcement or just another patch for WoW. The time between announcement and release is roughly a year for the past few expansions. Furthermore, every expansion has been announced between August and November on odd years since WoW first launched (October 2005 BC was announced) with only BC not releasing the following year.

[Lochton]

Isn't a water supply something you have in case of a drought?

A water supply is something you uphold to fill for the case of a drought. It is known that after the release of the last raid, that is the rain gone. It is huddle up as a supply to then be consumed through the next 4-6 months.

[clevin]

Wow a lot of hopefuls here. The real probability is around 50%. At most you will get a general overview or a video cut scene. The final tier is about to drop so there will be more about that then the next expac. Blizzard will give you just enough to make you want to keep playing but it's entirely likely they will wait to announce it as it's over a year until it will drop.

It stuns me that there are people like this.

Look at history. Every single expansion aside from Legion was announced at Blizzcon. Legion was announced earlier because they were 5m off the high point of WoD and had utterly screwed up the patches.

There has NEVER been an expansion announced after Blizzcon.

Precedent people. Learn about it.