Trump to Refuse to Certify Iran Nuclear Deal

[Breccia]

As a reminder, Trump has been saying he's reached a decision, but has been waiting to reveal this decision because he's a glorified game show host. Now we know what it is.

From our good friends at NBC Neww

President Donald Trump's top advisers briefed lawmakers Wednesday ahead of decision by the president on the fate of the Iran nuclear deal. White House officials said the pending decision wasn't shared, but several officials said they left the briefings convinced that Trump plans to decertify the deal, three officials told NBC News.

The president's decision comes ahead of a deadline Sunday that triggers a 60-day window for lawmakers to determine whether to reimpose sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program that were lifted as part of the 2015 agreement.

Trump's national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, briefed lawmakers on the president's pending decision on Wednesday and proposed legislation to amend the original Obama-era agreement — something Congress doesn't have the authority to do — two of the officials said.

Wait, what?

The White House denied that McMaster told lawmakers about the president's plans, but officials said McMaster left no doubt that Trump intends to decertify, as he has indicated numerous times in the past.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was also scheduled to brief lawmakers Wednesday as part of the administration's final sales pitch to tackle what it views as problematic elements of the nuclear agreement and to crack down on Iranian efforts to undermine peace in the Middle East.

The administration specifically wants to renegotiate the sunset clause in the nuclear deal, which has it expiring 10 years after it goes into effect, the provisions on inspections — the United States wants them to be more stringent and to expand access to Iran's military sites — and to curtail Iran's ballistic missile program, two senior administration officials and a person familiar with the ongoing policy discussions said.

Administration and congressional sources say that the decision to decertify is part of a larger strategy to crack down on Iran's missile program and its support for terrorism. The administration is also working to convince lawmakers that while it concedes Iran is in compliance with its obligations under the nuclear agreement, it is engaging in destabilizing activities across the region, from supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, to funding and arming Hezbollah fighters, and that it should be punished through crippling sanctions.

Congress already imposed new sanctions this year as part of a legislative package that targeted Russia, part of a broader plan by the administration to clamp down on the Iranian regime ahead of the rollout of its official Iran policy.

Trump often denounced the nuclear agreement on the campaign trail, once describing it as "a deal at the highest level of incompetence."

Legislation passed in 2015 requires the president to certify Iranian compliance every 90 days, something President Barack Obama reluctantly agreed to in the face of bipartisan concern about whether Iran could be trusted to remain in accord with the agreement.

Trump has now twice provided that certification, even as he maintains that the agreement was flawed and that Iran has violated "the spirit" of it. When the White House last certified Iran's compliance in July, it stated that Iran had "not taken any action, including covert activities, that could significantly advance its nuclear weapons program."

Still, despite his campaign promise to scrap the agreement, Trump's decision to decertify is receiving significant pushback, even by members of his own administration. Pressed by lawmakers last week, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis responded "yes" when asked if he thinks the deal is in America's national security interest.

Earlier Wednesday, Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said at a hearing that "as flawed as the deal is, I believe we must now enforce the hell out of it."

While in his opening statement Royce was critical of the Iran deal and called for a crackdown on Iranian misbehavior around the world, he also urged for a tempered response.

"Whatever he decides, it is critical that the president lay out the facts," Royce added, saying he hopes "the president will define a responsible path forward to confront the full range of threats posed by Iran."

Despite repeated promises on the campaign trail, administration and congressional sources say it's unlikely Trump will scrap the deal. Critics say that such proclamations were meant to appease his base.

"This is more of a political maneuver than a strategic decision," Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Friday on MSNBC.

Last month, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told NBC's Lester Holt in an interview that decertification is tantamount to withdrawing from the agreement, and will have consequences.

"No one will trust America again," he said.

Key allies, including Britain, France and Germany — known as the E3 — are warning that even without withdrawing, the new policy could isolate the U.S., strengthen Russia and China and signal to North Korea that it's a waste of time to negotiate with the Trump administration.

Officials briefed on the plan said no decisions have been made about whether to ramp up pressure on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp,or IRGC, through a terrorism designation — an idea that has been floated by lawmakers and administration officials looking to take a hardline against the Islamic Republic.

The IRGC, a vast, powerful military conglomerate, with naval, air and ground components organized in parallel to the conventional Iranian military, is the country's biggest economic player, with a hand in virtually every sector, from oil and gas to auto-making, telecommunications, construction, farming and beyond.

So, it has come to this.
a) Trump fully acknowledges -- three times -- that Iran is complying with their end of the deal, and is going to break it anyhow.
b) High-ranking and bipartisan members of Congress believe this is a poor idea.
c) So do members of Trump's cabinet. One of whom is asking Congress for something impossible.
d) So do our key allies.
e) So does the IAEA and the UN, more specifically, every country that signed the deal except the US.

Iran has repeatedly been very specific that there will be no renegotiating. Trump's unilateral decision to withdraw leaves them no incentive to adhere to their side of the bargain, and quite frankly, they're right that Trump's decision will make the word of the US worthless, making the already beleaguered Tillerson and Haley have harder jobs in the future, and making negotiating with North Korea basically impossible. And even hard-core opponent of the deal Netanyahu say decertifying the deal will only lead to military action.

The story doesn't end there.

If Trump declares Iran out of compliance with the 2015 deal, it would fall to Congress to decide whether U.S. sanctions related to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program should be put back in place. Under law, Congress would have 60 days in which to act.

“[Trump] wants the headlines of deconstructing various aspects of Obama’s legacy — Cuba, Obamacare, the Iran deal — without the actual real-world impact of those decisions or coming up with alternatives,” said Dan Shapiro, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017.

“Even some prominent opponents of the deal are trying to spin the fact that Trump will decertify but Congress will decide not to renew the sanctions that were suspended. They seem to want their cake and to eat it too,” Shapiro said.

Breitbart agrees. They really want that deal dead.

So basically, Congress could either let the sanctions suspended by the deal return to place -- removing any incentive Iran has to cooperate entirely -- or keep them suspended -- meaning that decertifying has zero effect, except for Trump voluntarily handing authority of the deal over to Congress, inviting them to challenge him, the challenge being accepted, and Trump being hung out to dry in the full view of the world.

[Deleted]

Maybe he should ignore the fact that other countries and nations exist at all and let his staff handle it - that's what he was elected for. Because it seems he cannot handle it. He is the guy that plays civilization and declares war against everyone before even fucking Jesus is born.

[ati87]

At this point I hope Iran just buys a nuclear weapon or two just to protect themselves from this fucking moron.

[Adam Jensen]

This shit infuriates me.

He's doing it because it was Obama's deal and it riles up his ignorant base who view Iran as "the enemy" rather than a nuanced nation in a complicated part of the world. The Iran Deal was a great step towards securing peace in the Middle East and restoring friendly relationships with Iran, while allowing their progressive and modern young countrymen and women have hope for a brighter future.

But Donald, being a #fuckingmoron is going to shit all over that and shit all over the US's reputation abroad, just to spite Obama. And because he's too stupid to understand why the Iran Deal was such a big deal.

Fuck him. I hope for our nation he doesn't finish* his first term

*This doesn't mean I want him dead so don't accuse me for advocating his assassination. I'd be happy with a resignation or an impeachment.

[Deletedaccount1]

Imagine if Trump's successor tries to spite him as much as Trump has done to Obama. We could start a nice chain of undoing everything until we are all dirt.

[Gestopft]

This shit infuriates me.

He's doing it because it was Obama's deal and it riles up his ignorant base who view Iran as "the enemy" rather than a nuanced nation in a complicated part of the world. The Iran Deal was a great step towards securing peace in the Middle East and restoring friendly relationships with Iran, while allowing their progressive and modern young countrymen and women have hope for a brighter future.

But Donald, being a #fuckingmoron is going to shit all over that and shit all over the US's reputation abroad, just to spite Obama. And because he's too stupid to understand why the Iran Deal was such a big deal.

Fuck him. I hope for our nation he doesn't finish* his first term

*This doesn't mean I want him dead so don't accuse me for advocating his assassination. I'd be happy with a resignation or an impeachment.

No, no- I'm quite sure he has a deep and nuanced understanding of the ramific...shit I can't even finish this sentence with a straight face. After all of the yapping Fox News did about Obama's "apology tour," the next president is going to have to quite literally do just that.

[Pannonian]

No, no- I'm quite sure he has a deep and nuanced understanding of the ramific...shit I can't even finish this sentence with a straight face. After all of the yapping Fox News did about Obama's "apology tour," the next president is going to have to quite literally do just that.

Apology tour? The next president will be forced to run naked through europe + me + asia while everyone screams "shame" ... at least if it should be proportional.

[paralleluniverse]

The Iran Deal was a great step towards securing peace in the Middle East and restoring friendly relationships with Iran, while allowing their progressive and modern young countrymen and women have hope for a brighter future.

No.

The Iran deal is a great step that ended Iran's nuclear weapons program.

People have no idea what the Iran deal is about. Clueless Trump has no idea, he and many people in his administration literally don't know.

The Iran deal is simply about ending Iran's nuclear weapons program, and it has successfully done that.

[Adam Jensen]

No.

The Iran deal is a great step that ended Iran's nuclear weapons program.

People have no idea what the Iran deal is about. Clueless Trump has no idea, he and many people in his administration literally don't know.

The Iran deal is simply about ending Iran's nuclear weapons program, and it has successfully done that.

It does a little bit more by allowing the country to enrich uranium for nuclear power plants. Furthermore, it shows (unless Trump goes through with this idiocy) that the West is willing to deal with Iran and that hostility between the West and Iran is no longer necessary.

[Edge-]

So how many more agreements is the US going to threaten to pull out of/actually pull out of because of Trump's "feels" rather than any actual policy reason?

How much damage is he going to do to the credibility and trustworthyness of the US? Why should any other country view the US as a reliable partner in anything if we're going to have presidents that behave in such a manner?

[TZucchini]

Trump Flow Chart

1). Did Obama do it? If yes, undo it.

2). If no, leave it alone.

[Adam Jensen]

Imagine if Trump's successor tries to spite him as much as Trump has done to Obama. We could start a nice chain of undoing everything until we are all dirt.

Eventually the Queen of England will be like "okay, you ungrateful colonials have had your fun." And take us back.

[Kujako]

So how many more agreements is the US going to threaten to pull out of/actually pull out of because of Trump's "feels" rather than any actual policy reason?

How much damage is he going to do to the credibility and trustworthyness of the US? Why should any other country view the US as a reliable partner in anything if we're going to have presidents that behave in such a manner?

As with the Paris Accord, unless the US does things specifically to act against the rest of the countries involved I expect them to just say "OK, see ya" and move on. This means that if Trump decertifies it, no one involved will care unless Congress passes sanctions against (for example) French companies dealing with Iran.

[DarkTZeratul]

As with the Paris Accord, unless the US does things specifically to act against the rest of the countries involved I expect them to just say "OK, see ya" and move on. This means that if Trump decertifies it, no one involved will care unless Congress passes sanctions against (for example) French companies dealing with Iran.

I think you're missing the point. Breaking the Iran deal unilaterally despite acknowledging that Iran is holding up their end would destroy our credibility. Why would any other country ever deal with us again if we can choose to not hold up our end of the deal?

[The Penguin]

On this topic, I unfortunately disagree with Trump. Unless one takes the word of Sean Hannity as scripture, (and cutting through both the Liberal and Conservative drivel that is being called fair reporting) it's pretty clear the after really digging into all of the facts that the deal is achieving what it was supposed to do, which was to halt the Iranian Nuclear program.

Because of that I'm inclined to say Obama made the right call on this particular matter as did Kerry. Ripping it up would be a step backwards and just signal to the world that we've regressed to the America of the early 1800s where any deals with us are as useful and binding as many treaties with Native American Tribes were.

Which is to say not at all.

[Kujako]

I think you're missing the point. Breaking the Iran deal unilaterally despite acknowledging that Iran is holding up their end would destroy our credibility. Why would any other country ever deal with us again if we can choose to not hold up our end of the deal?

I think our credibility is gone for the time being. Trump has made it very clear, that all agreements with the US are good for only a few years at a time, tops.

[Adam Jensen]

I think our credibility is gone for the time being. Trump has made it very clear, that all agreements with the US are good for only a few years at a time, tops.

"But her emails!"

But okay, I guess we'll take Trump and ruin America's reputation throughout the world . . .

[Lynarii]

I think our credibility is gone for the time being. Trump has made it very clear, that all agreements with the US are good for only a few years at a time, tops.

As if Trump or his base cares about the credibility of the US on the world stage. These are a group of people who seem to firmly believe that every country in the world will do what they say under threat of being nuked. Even allies.

[Deleted]

So how many more agreements is the US going to threaten to pull out of/actually pull out of because of Trump's "feels" rather than any actual policy reason?

How much damage is he going to do to the credibility and trustworthyness of the US? Why should any other country view the US as a reliable partner in anything if we're going to have presidents that behave in such a manner?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...d-anti-israel/

[GennGreymane]

Iran wins then.