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  1. #21
    The Insane Kujako's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Molis View Post
    Sarah Sanders tweeted that lowering the corporate tax rate will equal a raise for all employees.

    Who believes this shit?
    Republican voters?
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  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Molis View Post
    Sarah Sanders tweeted that lowering the corporate tax rate will equal a raise for all employees.

    Who believes this shit?
    The theory is that if you give businesses more money, the employees will magically get it all for reasons that are neither explained nor borne out by reality.

  3. #23
    Oh noes, freeloaders might not make as much off the backs of others? Whatever. Shall. We. Do.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Molis View Post
    Sarah Sanders tweeted that lowering the corporate tax rate will equal a raise for all employees.

    Who believes this shit?
    The same sort of people who believed for even a split second that a neighboring country was going to pay for a wall.

  4. #24
    It is true in the short term.

    In the long term, pretty much all the data in the world - and the data we've accumulated since the beginning of recording data - tells us that taxes do good things for economic growth, and that cutting them only cripples that growth.

    But we live in a world where people think Obama killed coal because we only show them the 8 years of coal under Obama, so the short term is really all that matters in a media-centric world.

  5. #25
    The Undying Cthulhu 2020's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkTZeratul View Post
    The theory is that if you give businesses more money, the employees will magically get it all for reasons that are neither explained nor borne out by reality.
    Pretty much, they believe that businesses having more will magically mean they pass it on to employees. In reality they just split it between the executives and the shareholders and employees get shafted.

    Tax cuts and tax incentives without explicit requirements that they go to the employees won't do jack shit.

    I've stated in the past I'm perfectly willing to see corporate tax cuts and incentives as long as the bill/law passing this shit also explicitly requires that these funds be passed on to employees proportionately. I've never gotten a response from any of the righties about this kind of thing except for once, when they told me that "telling a business how to use its money is communism" and will thus kill people and other such nonsense.
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  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Grapemask View Post
    But we live in a world where people think Obama killed coal because we only show them the 8 years of coal under Obama, so the short term is really all that matters in a media-centric world.
    I'd say it's more like we live in a world where people want to extrapolate a single data point of correlation into a definitive explanation of causation. Obama regulated coal, coal went down, therefore those regulations killed goal.

  7. #27
    The Undying Cthulhu 2020's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    Source? Some of my casual reading has indicating there are a number of factors including a long period of low interest rates, etc.
    The jumps that happened when he was elected, when he was inaugurated, and when he promised sweeping tax cuts.

    The rest of the upward trending line is normal growth from Obama era economic policy, but those jumps are all based merely on projection.
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  8. #28
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    I honestly do not follow the logic. You are assuming that the stock prices have no risk adjustment built in, which is provably false by a myriad of examples. There is lots of evidence that the GOP either will not deliver any tax cut package or a much more modest one. So I just don't follow why the stock market would tumble by the same amount of the maximum promise when there is considerable risk. Maybe I'm not tracking somewhere?
    What has GOP said negative about his tax code? There is no reason to believe GOP would block it.

    There is lots to explain the increase. Reduction in unemployment, reduction in regulations, and anti-regulation administration, and the speculation of a business friendly administration. Companies are continuing to see record profits and there are major sectors of the economy that are doing well regardless, frankly, of who is in the white house.
    Yes, but unemployment has dropped by less than a .5% and the growth exceeds that of Obama’s 5% drop. The things you mention about business friendly administration, hinges on the tax code.

    I'm not saying the stock market won't react if the tax deal falls apart...I just don't follow the logic of the magnitude of the reaction. I mean a 15% drop in the stock market would be a 3,500 point loss on the DOW. That's...really really big, and unreasonably big for what is essentially a status quo continuation.
    You are right here. I made a mistake. I should have said 15% of the growth aggregate. It would be 15% of the growth that wouldn’t have happened without speculation based on Trump assertions.
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  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Slacker76 View Post
    I'm totally getting deja vu on this. Its like when the Administration starting holding the ACA hostage over the CRS payments.
    • Then they went ahead and shot the hostage anyways.


    Also how can the Trump and Kushner organizations personally profit from this?
    1. Short the stocks of particular industries
    2. Attack those industries with taxes, regulatory shenanigans, or the Presidential Twitter ???
    3. Profit


    My bet is on Profit.
    It is one of three moves in Trump's playbook.
    Bullying.
    Fearmongering.
    EOs.

    Fearmongering also serves as blame deflection. If Trump created a bubble with this and it bursts, he will simply blame everyone who voted against it

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Grapemask View Post
    It is true in the short term.

    In the long term, pretty much all the data in the world - and the data we've accumulated since the beginning of recording data - tells us that taxes do good things for economic growth, and that cutting them only cripples that growth.

    But we live in a world where people think Obama killed coal because we only show them the 8 years of coal under Obama, so the short term is really all that matters in a media-centric world.
    I like looking at data. It can be pretty interesting as long as you can detach yourself. Sometimes, major shifts can happened in a relatively short amount of time.

    For example, up to 2014, both the US and global stock markets were dominated by oil companies (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Petrobas, Petro China). Then after the oil price crashed, the last 4 years have been dominated by the likes of Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson & Johnson , and Facebook. Both Apple and Microsoft now have market caps of twice that of Exxon. Amazon and B&H market caps are higher than Exxon. That is quite a shift in fortune in a short amount of time.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2017-10-23 at 07:46 PM.

  11. #31
    The Lightbringer zEmini's Avatar
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    It is very possible. The stock market is very vulnerable to emotion from investors.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by zEmini View Post
    It is very possible. The stock market is very vulnerable to emotion from investors.
    Which is why most economics models are faulty: they assume rational actors.

  13. #33
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hellboi View Post
    The stock market does work on speculation which is why it doesn't do well under Democrat leadership.
    Uhh...were you in a coma from 2008-2016?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    What has GOP said negative about his tax code? There is no reason to believe GOP would block it.
    I believe there were some "we have to keep it revenue neutral" from some of the usual suspects. And that I think is the biggest deal breaker atm...

    The things you mention about business friendly administration, hinges on the tax code.
    Not entirely. You cannot ignore the effect of the reduction in regulations, putting very business friendly people in charge of key departments like the EPA, nor can you ignore the general sort of protectionism coming from the administration. I'm not at all saying the tax discussion isn't a factor -- I just think it's not quite as all encompassing as (I think) you are portraying it.

    You are right here. I made a mistake. I should have said 15% of the growth aggregate. It would be 15% of the growth that wouldn’t have happened without speculation based on Trump assertions.
    That makes more sense to me. Thanks!

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    But, the growth the market has seen since his arrival, has nothing else to explain the increase. The pace has increased, even if the trend of increasing hasn’t.
    Fun Fact the stock market gains under Trump isn't more then the gains under Obama's re-election

    Since Nov9, 2016 to now (349 days after Trump's election):
    Dow up 27.07%
    S&P 500 up 20.35%
    Nasdaq up 28.05%

    Since Nov7, 2012 til Oct 21,20013(349 days after Obama's re-election):
    Dow up 16.36%
    S&P 500 up 22.15%
    Nasdaq up 31.70%

    So only the Dow 30 stocks (Apple wasn't part of the Dow in 2013) are up higher under Trump then Obama's re-election which the stock market knew that more socialism? was coming...

    Personally I think the reason the market hasn't pulled back since Trump's election is the promise of a capital gains tax cuts. Why would you sell stocks when a tax cut is likely to occur under full Republican control. Then once they saw how Trump is a giant baby hell bent on undoing everything Obama did and Obama increased cap gains tax on Trump's friends it seems very logical for wall street to assume a tax cut is coming for them.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Aurinaux View Post
    It's not just the idea of passing tax cuts but having a corporate-friendly White House.
    Pff their was no more friendly corporate friendly president then Obama...you know the president who tried to grow the economy as a whole instead of the chosen few.

  16. #36
    Elemental Lord callipygoustp's Avatar
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    Cleared out my 401k and etrade account and put the funds in my dresser drawer. I'll take them out when all of this blows over.

  17. #37
    Elemental Lord callipygoustp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aurinaux View Post
    Lol? Why do you have a 401(k) if not to set unneeded funds aside?
    Does the sentiment not do justice to the level of fear I am now feeling?

    (come on man, sarcasm. do I need to put a /s on everything?)

  18. #38
    Elemental Lord callipygoustp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aurinaux View Post
    Yes, you do. This thread is filled with retail investors. Am I to assume they are all being sarcastic?
    Yeah, someone saying they dumped all their accounts and put the money in their sock drawer based on fear mongering can be seen as serious. Keep it real man!

  19. #39
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by callipygoustp View Post
    (come on man, sarcasm. do I need to put a /s on everything?)
    Yes. Because things are so absurd these days you simply can't tell who is being sarcastic.

  20. #40
    Elemental Lord callipygoustp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aurinaux View Post
    I get your point, but I don't know your posting history and there are a lot of crazy people. Sorry for missing your sarcasm.
    Yeah, I'm sure I am not someone who stands out here on mmo-c. I doubt I'm ever recognized by the average, common, mmo-c poster.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    Yes. Because things are so absurd these days you simply can't tell who is being sarcastic.
    There are definitely some pretty crazy things posted on this forum by people who regularly back up their crazy posts. I should probably just make my signature "~slash_s" cause I rarely take or post anything on this forum in a serious way*.


    *Except for the current thread on beer. Now THAT is serious. Beer lover here
    Last edited by callipygoustp; 2017-10-23 at 09:11 PM.

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