Rough estimate on potential Classic player numbers

[Count Zero]

I mean also odds are it'll be free with a regular sub, meaning even if they started reporting subs again it would be very hard even for them to know just exactly how many to count for either.

[TyrannicalPuppy]

old numbers 2011

https://us.battle.net/forums/en/wow/topic/3123242622

New numbers was somewhere else, if you can't find find the new stuff on your own .. :/ The old stuff is much harder to find so there.

In any event, the old numbers are more relevant to Classic, not new 100mil+ numbers.

Peak at the time on that post and investor comments was 10+mil played, to match 10+ quit .. that is the potential audience who have played Vanilla, TBC, and / or WotLK on or before 2011. 20+ mil.

There is another group who want to know for themselves, or want a significant challenge in their lives (those unfamiliar with early WoW) ... This number draws from a much larger pool. Hence all the QoL demands to make changes they don't understand.

That's not how the burden of proof works. You made a claim, it's up to you to provide that source.

But I, for one, know you can't. Because a source doesn't exist for current numbers. Because Blizzard doesn't publicly announce sub numbers anymore.

[StationaryHawk]

I use the "let's say" method of estimating as well, as opposed to any sort of real data.

[TyrannicalPuppy]

You can get a good idea of minimum current US/EU numbers via realmpop by looking at number of DHs rolled.

That's around 3m DHs all up.

That is some seriously stretched logic. Nobody knows how many people didn't make a single DH, and how many made multiple (I, for example, have both a belf and a nelf at 110).

[Deleted]

Well, consider that over 100 million people have played WoW over the years.
I think its fair to assume 80 million of these people was during the Vanilla - Wotlk era.
This means that all these people had to trudge trough Vanilla content in one way or another, making them suitable targets for these realms.
Lets be conservative and say 10% will try it out.
That is 8 million people who are no longer subscribed, and going back. Lapsed players.
Then we have people wanting to try out this fabled "Vanilla".
Id argue these could number in atleast a couple of millions.

That leaves me with atleast 10 million people.
Now lets say I'm way to optimistic, and slash that figure in half.

I'd say anything between 5-10 million people will atleast jump on these Classic server to try em out.

Retention is another thing, but I'd not be surprised if atleast 1 million people stayed around for Classic.

i think your being way to optimistic and making the assumption most left because they stopped liking the game. reality is people grew up. grew out of wow. got families or found other games. they wont be back unless they want a divorce.

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Those would claim differently.

according to that top chart the low point of wod was as high as the end of vanilla ..... good luck mate is all i can say to that

[bladeXcrasher]

If people actually play long enough to get to level 60, they will quit after finding out that not all specs are playable in endgame content, that constant farming is required, and that a pitifully small amount of gear drops for 40 people. All the best to the people that have the time to play that game, but I remember what it was like, and that massive time sink isn't worth the time.

[TyrannicalPuppy]

i think your being way to optimistic and making the assumption most left because they stopped liking the game. reality is people grew up. grew out of wow. got families or found other games. they wont be back unless they want a divorce.

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according to that top chart the low point of wod was as high as the end of vanilla ..... good luck mate is all i can say to that

Everyone knows that WoD's sub numbers were the lowest they'd been since Vanilla. That was one of the top news stories of its time. What's your point?

[RapBreon]

WOTLK peak was 12 million subs, since that time it has dropped to 4-5 mil, which means that 7 million people quit.

Classic will bring back non-playing players, not all of them ofcourse.... lets say 4 million will come back. Retail players will also go to try classic, lets say 2 mil will go, that is 6 million players together.
After time the numbers will dwindle, but looking at retail number, the classic can have the same 4 million players or 1 mill less.

4million makes the assumption that majority of people quit not for one of a plethora of reasons (life, commitment, cost, changing tastes, shifting social circles, etc.), but because of the state of the game.

If I see even 2 million return for classic (not for BFA and dabble in classic, big difference) I will eat my goddamn hat. WoW itself is in decline.

I want this to work, I'm super hyped, but I think maybe a tad too optimistic. This will be niche for sure.

[Deleted]

Everyone knows that WoD's sub numbers were the lowest they'd been since Vanilla. That was one of the top news stories of its time. What's your point?

Wod is seems as faliur with this numbers, you think vanilla will be seen any better with likely less numbers?

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Any way my opinion is it'll be basically dead within 2 yrs and you can come back and quote me on that in 2 yrs time
2 Yrs post launch ofc as it's likely over a year befor they launch it

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Those would claim differently.

It would appear that, just like with the release of every expansion...there was a burst at the end of Vanilla when 2.0 was released...which really makes those numbers part of BC.

[Pipboi]

My guess is less than 100k players after the first 6 months maybe a year. Once people realize that 2/3 of class specs aren't viable and bosses drop 3 pieces of loot to split between 40 people they'll find that it isn't the type of game they want anymore. It would take so many changes to make the game more attractive to the masses than Live, that it wouldn't even be fair to call it Classic WoW anymore.

[aviger]

If more than 100-200k people are STILL playing vanilla after a year ill be incredibly surprised.
I started playing during beta and while i may log in just to see it you cant pay me to go back to that shitfest :P

[Swiftshadow]

imo, is still the rose tinted glasses perspective.

Gamers desires have evolved to expect more from a game presently.

Back then, I enjoyed walking the long journey for eg. from Orgrimmar to Crossroads just to level. The annoying ganking by max levels in Stranglethorn was also somewhat a dangerous but interesting experience. But this was during a time when WoW was the gold standard for MMOs. And all these was accepted as part of the gameplay and hence the experience.

Now? I probably cannot endure doing any of the above. And I suppose WoW could STILL be considered the gold standard for MMOs now. However in today's generation of MOBAs, Destiny 2, PUBG etc....all games that are not as "grindy" or time-sinks as WoW, concepts from Vanilla WoW will not be popular. Although these games may be different genres so to speak, the main point is gamers nowadays prefer the freedom of being able to jump in or out of the game, and not be "obliged" to commit long gaming sessions.

I'll be surprised if the Classic WoW can retain 100k actively playing players.

[schwarzkopf]

That is some seriously stretched logic. Nobody knows how many people didn't make a single DH,

'minimum' <-------

[Nehezbegar]

Lol even if its 100k after a month, its still more than most of the MMO games on the market , so i am happy. Those 100k will upkeep the servers with their subs

[Uurdz]

After a month you're looking at 100k Max. 200k with QoL changes

Blizzard would not make realms for such a small number of people the wall of no would have continued/explain they can't get it to work blah blah blah

[Ulfric Trumpcloak]

Probably 2-3m people at launch. About 500k once it stabilizes, with 100k or so hardcore everyday players. If there are private servers with 20k+ unique daily players, then authentic blizzard servers will easily have 5 times as many.

I would be surprised if it's any better. It will be the re-release of a now 14 year old game, outdated graphics, questing, ui, engine, features. That will turn away a lot of people, paired with the fact that some others simply won't be interested in doing what they already did.

I think a lot of people who never played vanilla will try it just to see what vanilla was like. I think a lot of vanilla players will try it purely out of nostalgia. The vast majority of people will be leaving within a month, just like it has happened with every actual expansion they've released since Cata.

[Deficineiron]

Those would claim differently.

those graphs also use western content release dates and apply them to the world. china was not on western expansion schedule until expansion 4 iirc.

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One word, one market.

China.

Notice Blizzard's heavy marketing campaign in the east yet?

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Vanilla didn't ever achieve 7.5 million. It only ever got that after TBC was released in China, where it picked up 4 million subscribers.

this is false. https://www.crmbuyer.com/story/55135.html. classic went out at 8m subs.

blizz. used to have the pr's up on the eu site but I cannot find them anymore.

[Uurdz]

imo, is still the rose tinted glasses perspective.

Gamers desires have evolved to expect more from a game presently.

Back then, I enjoyed walking the long journey for eg. from Orgrimmar to Crossroads just to level. The annoying ganking by max levels in Stranglethorn was also somewhat a dangerous but interesting experience. But this was during a time when WoW was the gold standard for MMOs. And all these was accepted as part of the gameplay and hence the experience.

Now? I probably cannot endure doing any of the above. And I suppose WoW could STILL be considered the gold standard for MMOs now. However in today's generation of MOBAs, Destiny 2, PUBG etc....all games that are not as "grindy" or time-sinks as WoW, concepts from Vanilla WoW will not be popular. Although these games may be different genres so to speak, the main point is gamers nowadays prefer the freedom of being able to jump in or out of the game, and not be "obliged" to commit long gaming sessions.

I'll be surprised if the Classic WoW can retain 100k actively playing players.

You're a current retail player of WoW who enjoys how it currently is. You are not the target market.
You generalize what gamers want. If I want a quick in and out game I play pubg or overwatch. If I want an immersive enjoyable rpg experience then I'm looking for vanilla wow like experience

Ashes of Creation might be good but I don't have High hopes for their ability to deliver

[Deficineiron]

After a month you're looking at 100k Max. 200k with QoL changes

posts like this are a major math failure. multiply by 10 as a worst-case floor.

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alot of people think this and its simply not true, wow at its peak had 12 million CONCURRENT subscribers

it has had, since they last said in mists of pandaria over 1 HUNDRED million subscribers.

there is a difference between concurrent playerbase and total people ever subscribed.

the vast majority of people who have tried and played wow have quit. very few stayed subscribed.

we also dont know how classic wow will be monetized. whether it will be baked into the retail sub or given its own sub.

either way id say alot of people will TRY wow classic. but id be willing to bet once the hype settles and people have tried it that at max it will have 200 - 500k concurrent subscribers. which is still alot for an mmo and enough to keep the lights on

the number is worldwide, and also surely may include banned accounts, e.g. bots and gold cutouts. they are probably a surprising % of that number.

nonetheless, the former western playerbase is huge. many posters on this thread aren't managing 8 digit former player numbers in proportion to how they may impact things come classic release. even 5% attract rate is 2m western, more or less.