What Month do you think the expansion is going to release?

[rda]

I actually have no idea when they are going to release in that the possibilities seem uncharacteristically wide.

On the one hand, yes, it'd feel strange to see them not taking 90% of the 2018 to get the thing out the door. They have never been fast, hard to expect surprises. That suggests end of 2018 - like October / November, maaaaaaaybe September.

But on the other hand with BFA containing barely anything worth talking about apart from the traditional zones / instances, and with one of the only two new features collapsing before our eyes not even a month after Blizzcon (warfronts - apparently there is going to be just one and that's their current plan "for the expansion", read one of the recent interviews), I have a hard time seeing what the heck there is even to do for so long. So, maybe they are going to release in something like May, I don't know. A BS empty expansion for the same cool price of $60, but "early" (so, go celebrate, woohoo /sarcasm).

[Nyel]

So, maybe they are going to release in something like May, I don't know. A BS empty expansion for the same cool price of $60, but "early" (so, go celebrate, woohoo /sarcasm).

Well, they did it with WoD (late release + "bs empty expansion") and I'm sure they will do it again.

[Pickynerd]

WoD was as bad as this (ok, maybe not so bad as BfA), but it still took 14 months.

I expect it to be released in november 2018; everyone who thinks it comes faster please don't forget: we talk about BLIZZARD: when did they ever release something far ahead of time? Really, when?

They were working on Legion since MoP, and WoD was a filler like BfA is to the next big expansion. In terms of expansions Legion was a lot like MoP, as so far BfA is a lot like WoD in the feature department.

Blizzard knows subscriber cycles better than we do, no matter how obvious it becomes. No way we will be stuck in the last raid tier for 1 year, or more they've made that mistake and it had costed them dearly.

[SoulSoBreezy]

Just because this larger team seems to be in its paces doesn't automatically mean things will come out faster. If anything it'll be more streamlined.
I'd even go as far as to say instead of a systems patch that lumps us into a month of madness and confusion as we adjust, we'll get pieces of the systems patch over the next few months along with a few breadcrumbs of story content.

[Risale]

We have 7.3.5 that will bring level scaling, after this it is more then likely that we will get a 7.4 this will be the patch dealing with the aftermath of Sargeras stabbing Azeroth in Silithus (this might be the patch that we will loose our artifacts).
Now I think the pre-patch 8.0 will be the patch related to the trailer the book being released in June will be part of that, this will be the end of Legion leading up to BfA.

In my eyes that is at least 3 patches and a launch so the whole thing about being released after gamescon is sounding more and more real to me, despite me hoping for a July release.

What we need to remember is that F&F isn't out yet, 7.3.5 isn't on the PTR yet, hell they still need to test wing 4 of LFR (i think, might be wrong) and F&F lasts 2-3 months then beta which last 5-6 months so 7 months at the absolute earliest but that means that F&F needs to be up right now and it isn't or we would have seen some form of leak by now (like always) and would be roughly around the time of the book release.

Hell only Blizz knows for sure and unless somebody there spills the beans all we are doing is guessing (doesn't mean it is accurate guessing but you know it is still a guess).

[Kuraiummei]

This tier is going to be really long, and I keep hearing rumors about a pseudo tier like the Trial of Valor after Antorus, so... not for a long while.

[Deleted]

"[...]we're considering a little bit longer of an expansion pack process with more patches, so that we can tell a better story[...]"
Since 7.3.5 isn't likely coming before February, we're up for a drought again. Considering that 7.3.5 may already bring 4 allied races with it, they probably want us to level all of them to 110 before the pre patch. "A little bit longer" would mean we can look forward to an October or November release as all xpacs before have lasted 22-26 months.

[Marrilaife]

Releasing expansion during or just before summer is silly in my opinion, as it's the lowest player activity period and you'd be shooting your fresh content in the foot. So I'm betting at autumn release. September to November. Gonna vote October as that's the middle of autumn.

[Steampunkette]

September.

So. For a long while the devs were hitting the 77 day/11 week mark on major content releases for Legion. I know people are saying that it's just something that players noticed, but you don't release content like clockwork several patches in a row and have it be a coincidence. Timetables slip, workflow changes, and similar issues are just too common for a string of perfect luck to make 11 weeks be the "Standard" for the expansion prior to the final raid.

Assuming they go back to the 11 week mark based on when Antorus was -supposed- to open, we'll see 7.3.5 on January 23rd.

11 weeks later, we'll see another content patch probably set between the two expansions on April 10th. Alternatively, this could be a "Dead" period where 22 weeks go by without any content.

11 weeks later on June 26th, we'd see the next content drop date. The pre-patch could be here.

Then, 77 days later, the expansion itself would launch on September 11th.

However. Americans are really sensitive about that date, politically if not personally, so Antorus being -delayed- by 2 weeks could have been an intentional changing of dates in order to avoid release hitting on 9/11.

In that case 7.3.5 would launch 11 weeks after Antorus opened, February 13th, the day before Valentine's Day. Then we'd get the interim patch (Or no content patch for the 22 week hiatus) on April 24th, the pre-patch July 10th, and release on September 25th. This change could be part of why the book release was delayed from late May (With the Prepatch originally slated to hit in late June) to July (With the new prepatch date set to the 10th based on the Antorus shift)

In either case, September is the month I would say we should look to. Following either the original schedule or the slightly altered one to avoid 9/11 it would still launch in September.

Now it's definitely -possible- that there will be no April 10th/24th "Interim Patch" and instead we could see the Pre-patch hit in April with the actual launch in late June early July. But I don't think that's where we're heading.

[rda]

So. For a long while the devs were hitting the 77 day/11 week mark on major content releases for Legion. I know people are saying that it's just something that players noticed, but you don't release content like clockwork several patches in a row and have it be a coincidence.

This doesn't mean anything for the release date of BFA.

The 77 days was an internal schedule for continuous patches for the already released expansion. They prioritized hitting the dates higher than hitting other internal bars (the amount of content first and foremost) this time - fine, cool, there is some value in doing it this way (and there is value in prioritizing dates lower as well), but that's all there is to it. It all ends when we are talking about the release date for a new expansion. The "limit" of 77 days does not apply to anything, it is no longer in action, nobody cares about it (neither should they), it is just a different story.

After BFA they might again prioritize hitting dates for subsequent patches higher than other things, maybe they will the same period of 77 days, maybe they will use something else. /shrug

[Alvito]

BfA may be further along, but you have to take into acount that videogames are still a busuness and from that standpoint it would be better to release it around september than midsummer, when most of the players are home from vacation so they can sell as much copies as possible and have as big of a peak in players and subs, as these numbers are important when you show them to your investors and it would boost Q4 sales even more, since they are kinda important cuz of christmas

A September release also bumps revenue for the 3rd and 4th quarter for them. If you look at any of the big moves they have done since WoD, they time them to overlap 2 quarters so they can in a sense double dip.

[Steampunkette]

This doesn't mean anything for the release date of BFA.

The 77 days was an internal schedule for continuous patches for the already released expansion. They prioritized hitting the dates higher than hitting other internal bars (the amount of content first and foremost) this time - fine, cool, there is some value in doing it this way (and there is value in prioritizing dates lower as well), but that's all there is to it. It all ends when we are talking about release date for a new expansion. The "limit" of 77 days does not apply to anything, it is no longer in action, nobody cares about it (neither should they), it is just a different story.

After BFA they might again prioritize hitting dates for subsequent patches higher than other things, maybe they will the same period of 77 days, maybe they will use something else.

You're making as big an assumption as I am by saying the 77 day scheduling is going to end with Legion, RDA.

They could hang onto it. They could drop it by the wayside. They could change it to 66 days or 99. They could make it 10 weeks for the first one, then 11, then 12, then 813 and 14 and just keep pusihng the duration of each patch by a week. Or reverse the trend and reduce patch duration by a week.

We don't know.

My suggestion is based on what we have. On what we've been working off of. That the pattern will continue. It's an assumption, sure, but no more an assumption that the pattern will end.

[rda]

You're making as big an assumption as I am by saying the 77 day scheduling is going to end with Legion, RDA.

They could hang onto it. They could drop it by the wayside. They could change it to 66 days or 99. They could make it 10 weeks for the first one, then 11, then 12, then 813 and 14 and just keep pusihng the duration of each patch by a week. Or reverse the trend and reduce patch duration by a week.

We don't know.

My suggestion is based on what we have. On what we've been working off of. That the pattern will continue. It's an assumption, sure, but no more an assumption that the pattern will end.

What do you mean - the assumption that the "77 day scheduling" as you put it does not extend to the release of a new expansion??? If so, no, that's not a big assumption, that's common sense from how development is done. These things are just different.

No, the assumption that they are going to obey the rule of 77 for some bizarre reason beyond the scope of what it was created for and the assumption that they won't aren't equal. The first assumption is largely baseless, the second is common sense.

[Steampunkette]

What do you mean - the assumption that the "77 day scheduling" as you put it does not extend to the release of a new expansion??? If so, no, that's not a big assumption, that's common sense from how development is done. These things are just different.

No, the assumption that they are going to obey the rule of 77 for some bizarre reason beyond the scope of what it was created for and the assumption that they won't aren't equal. The first assumption is largely baseless, the second is common sense.

What was it created for, exactly? Unless you're a member of Blizzard's team or they've explicitly publically stated that it's only for content patches within Legion you can't possibly know that. And, so far as I'm aware, they haven't -mentioned- the 11 week schedule in interview, presentation, or forum. So either you're a member of the Blizzard Team, or you're just making an assumption like I am.

And unless I'm mistaken, it's the latter. I assume they're holding to that schedule, you assume they aren't.

[rda]

What was it created for, exactly? Unless you're a member of Blizzard's team or they've explicitly publically stated that it's only for content patches within Legion you can't possibly know that. And, so far as I'm aware, they haven't -mentioned- the 11 week schedule in interview, presentation, or forum. So either you're a member of the Blizzard Team, or you're just making an assumption like I am.

And unless I'm mistaken, it's the latter. I assume they're holding to that schedule, you assume they aren't.

It was created for delivering small patches for an existing expansion. These patches are flexible on content and that's key here. The expansion is different.

The "unless you're a member of Blizzard's team ... you can't possibly know that" is wrong - that's similar to you not knowing how to solve a trigonometry problem and saying that unless I was told the answer to it by its creator, I can't possibly know that answer either. Yes, I can know what the 77 day rule is for without eavesdropping on Blizzard, it is obvious to those with relevant experience.

[Misuteri]

November, all in time for a Black Friday promotion.

[rda]

What was it created for, exactly? Unless you're a member of Blizzard's team or they've explicitly publically stated that it's only for content patches within Legion you can't possibly know that. And, so far as I'm aware, they haven't -mentioned- the 11 week schedule in interview, presentation, or forum. So either you're a member of the Blizzard Team, or you're just making an assumption like I am.

And unless I'm mistaken, it's the latter. I assume they're holding to that schedule, you assume they aren't.

BTW, I will tell you more - should have included that into the previous post.

The rule of 77 days was created not so much for the players, but first and foremost for the dev team. Making some players happier then they would have been otherwise was a side effect, at least at first.

[Khrux]

They said we'd get a more gradual content drop throughout Legion, with regular consistent updates and no droughts. They delivered.

Now we're getting the supposed final raid tier in Nov, with a new expansion that has a timeline of nothing but "we're planning to release in 2018". So if they intend to keep up with the gradual content drops with no droughts, then they need to either pull a 7.4 out of their arse in Q2 2018 to bridge to gap to an autumn BfA release or they need to drop BfA in Q2.

I think the latter is a stretch, even with the apparent "lack of features" in BfA. So I'm expecting some form of 7.4 patch with some Silithus fluff as a stopgap between 7.3.5 and 8.0

[Erixi]

My speculation (informed by years of following that stuff) :

7.3.5 is going to hit the PTRs late this week or next week, this will be announced in the Ion Q&A thursday.

It will stay on the PTR until Antorus LFR's last wing has been opened for a week or two.

This means late January or early February. If you think that's long, remember that Blizzard loves their holidays, so you have to cut a full two weeks of time around Christmas and the New Year as useless time to developpement. It's probably less than that in practice, but that's a good rule.

The contents of that 7.3.5 patch will be the last pieces of content for Legion (unless they have a surprise up their sleeve, but I don't think so) and bridge to the BFA storyline.

If they do an F&F Alpha it will have started slightly before that, or start at that point. It would last 2 to 3 months.

Beta is after that and will take 5 or 6 months. People will argue, as they always do, that it will be shorter this time. They're wrong, and they're setting themselves up for disappointment. Don't make the same mistake. This is not pessimism, this is looking at the historical data.

This gives us a release window between Late August (which is very much possible as that marks an exactly two year run for Legion, which is the usual length), to November (Late case with a long F&F Alpha also starting late).

I'm banking on the week of September containing the September 25th 2018 weekly maintenance, personnally, but I could be off up to a month in either direction, it wouldn't shock me. Longer in either direction would surprise me.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly. This is how I broke it down:

7.3.5 PTR Dec 5th or Dec 12th.
F&F Alpha January
Beta ~ End of February / Beginning of March
7.4 (Story Patch) ~ March
7.9 (BfA Setup) ~ August at the latest.
8.0 4 weeks after 7.9

[rda]

They said we'd get a more gradual content drop throughout Legion, with regular consistent updates and no droughts. They delivered.

Now we're getting the supposed final raid tier in Nov, with a new expansion that has a timeline of nothing but "we're planning to release in 2018". So if they intend to keep up with the gradual content drops with no droughts, then they need to either pull a 7.4 out of their arse in Q2 2018 to bridge to gap to an autumn BfA release or they need to drop BfA in Q2.

I think the latter is a stretch, even with the apparent "lack of features" in BfA. So I'm expecting some form of 7.4 patch with some Silithus fluff as a stopgap between 7.3.5 and 8.0

They will just drop the bit on doing regular consistent updates on the floor.