New poll shows Democrat Doug Jones leads Roy Moore by 12 points in AL senate race.

[Wvvtayy]

http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/11/1...ones-12-points

As I'm sure you all know by now, I love statistics and polling data. Well this poll done today, by a Republican organization, is the most exciting one I've seen yet. Roy Moore is losing, bad. Despite calls from basically every other Republican to drop out of the race, he shows no signs of doing so.

This is big. Democrats gaining a Senate seat will leave Republicans with only a 51-49 majority, and will very much give Democrats an actual shot at retaking the Senate next year.

For those wondering, there is no way at this point that they can force Roy Moore to drop out. The only way it will happen is if he himself decides to drop out, which he has made very clear he will not.

I forsee this being a reverse of the Scott Brown situation in 2010. For those who didn't follow politics back then, Scott Brown is a Republican who won a Senate special election in deep blue MA in 2010, freaking Democrats the fuck out and being the first real sign of the massive Republican wave that swept Congress in the midterms later that year.

[Omega10]

Fingers crossed. When is the election anyways?

[Wvvtayy]

Fingers crossed. When is the election anyways?

December 12th

[Cthulhu 2020]

Moore will probably win because it's Alabama, but Mitch McConnell and all the other Republicans are assuring the nation that they have researched plenty of ways to still deny Moore the office even if he wins.

[Wvvtayy]

Moore will probably win because it's Alabama, but Mitch McConnell and all the other Republicans are assuring the nation that they have researched plenty of ways to still deny Moore the office even if he wins.

Not necessarily. The RNC cut all ties with moore. Since RNC funding is a big part of what gets voters to turn out, this is a devastating blow.

The other possibility is establishment Republicans try to do a write-in campaign, which will simply split the vote between Moore loyalists and other republicans

[Milchshake]

Not necessarily. The RNC cut all ties with moore. Since RNC funding is a big part of what gets voters to turn out, this is a devastating blow.

The other possibility is establishment Republicans try to do a write-in campaign, which will simply split the vote between Moore loyalists and other republicans

I'm doubtful RNC backing will matter much. Roy Moore has huge name recognition in Alabama, enough to get elected to the State Supreme Court .... twice.

Maybe Moore loses some ads from the RNC or other mainline GOP PACs. But there's other wingnuts to fill in the gaps. Speaking of which, Falwell, Pat Robertson and Graham and the other moral types have been holding their cards close.

They either endorse a pedophile or lose out on getting more whackadoo judges confirmed.... what would jesus do?

[Breccia]

Since RNC funding is a big part of what gets voters to turn out, this is a devastating blow.

I respectfully disagree.

It's too close to the election. Moore almost certainly has all the funding he needs by now, and I don't think the RNC is retroactively removing funds from him -- just refusing to give him additional funds. Ads have already been bought, staffers paid for, etc.

The RNC made a statement, but the actual effect will be minimal.

[PACOX]

I respectfully disagree.

It's too close to the election. Moore almost certainly has all the funding he needs by now, and I don't think the RNC is retroactively removing funds from him -- just refusing to give him additional funds. Ads have already been bought, staffers paid for, etc.

The RNC made a statement, but the actual effect will be minimal.

Hey now, Clinton lost the election in a week, so can Moore!

On a more serious note, Bama politics seems to be of a different breed. Its like criticism from the outside makes them stick to their candidates even more...no matter the allegations. Rebels with shitty causes, so we'lll see.

[Kaleredar]

God willing.

Though I'm driven to wonder... if he DOES somehow win and IS found guilty of being a sex offender, shouldn't he be disbarred from holding office?

[Breccia]

Though I'm driven to wonder... if he DOES somehow win and IS found guilty of being a sex offender, shouldn't he be disbarred from holding office?

Seems unlikely, given that Moore snuck this one in before the statute of limitations was raised.

[Paranoid Android]

I have seen some crazy ideas thrown out there such as Sessions taking seat back. Holding election in later date and even have Strange resign to trigger another special election.

Why don't they just say elect the pedophile and when he gets to the Senate they will kick him out.

Now would be interesting to see if Democrats would vote to kick him. Yes he is a pedophile, but again Moore would have won on a somewhat shady way by Republicans basically saying "We want the seat, not the person".

I can't see serious blowback from Alabama GOP. Is Moore that popular to people of Alabama to care as soon as he is elected he is booted. I mean its a Republican.

As rule of law or procedure I do not believe this would trigger another Alabama election.

[cubby]

Not necessarily. The RNC cut all ties with moore. Since RNC funding is a big part of what gets voters to turn out, this is a devastating blow.s

Most of the money had already been raised though, with ads already purchased. I get that the RNC funding is being cut now, but I'm not sure what effect it will have on the campaign. Obviously, more money would be better.

The other possibility is establishment Republicans try to do a write-in campaign, which will simply split the vote between Moore loyalists and other republicans

A write-in campaign is dangerous - because, iirc, if Strange runs a write-in campaign and loses, he can't appear on a ballot again for six years (my source was not entirely clear on this, however). Also, a write-in campaign will almost guarantee a Jones win because AL doesn't have the wits to get this correct.

My belief, ever cynical, is that the RNC is playing the shallowly-outraged card, publicly doing all that is "right" but privately hoping he wins, so they can control the seat and the vote count. If he wins, and is somehow ousted, then the AL gov will appoint another GOP to the seat, keeping the GOP's razor thin margin in the Senate secure.

The poll is very good news, but I trust the good 'ol boys of 'bama to get around the vote count and keep their Pedo in.

[Wvvtayy]

Most of the money had already been raised though, with ads already purchased. I get that the RNC funding is being cut now, but I'm not sure what effect it will have on the campaign. Obviously, more money would be better.




A write-in campaign is dangerous - because, iirc, if Strange runs a write-in campaign and loses, he can't appear on a ballot again for six years (my source was not entirely clear on this, however). Also, a write-in campaign will almost guarantee a Jones win because AL doesn't have the wits to get this correct.

My belief, ever cynical, is that the RNC is playing the shallowly-outraged card, publicly doing all that is "right" but privately hoping he wins, so they can control the seat and the vote count. If he wins, and is somehow ousted, then the AL gov will appoint another GOP to the seat, keeping the GOP's razor thin margin in the Senate secure.

The poll is very good news, but I trust the good 'ol boys of 'bama to get around the vote count and keep their Pedo in.

One plan I heard was, if Moore wins, having him expelled and having Jeff Sessions resign as attorney general and going back to the senate. Which could be good or bad depending how bad Sessions replacement is, but you can't get much worse than sessions so theirs that

[BrerBear]

Why don't they just say elect the pedophile and when he gets to the Senate they will kick him out.

You need two thirds of the Senate to vote to expel one of their own.

Which means you need a significant number of Democratic votes.

But why would they play along? That would let the Republicans replace Moore with another Republican who will merrily vote their agenda but be less embarrassing.
So, not very likely to happen, and the Republicans know it.

[Hobb]

I am fairly sure a lot of people who will vote for him are too ashamed to admit it to even an anonymous pollster. I don't know if they have adjusted for this expected bias in the poll to a significant degree.

Sadly I'm sure that is what's going to happen. The percentage of undecided voters is way to large.

[cubby]

One plan I heard was, if Moore wins, having him expelled and having Jeff Sessions resign as attorney general and going back to the senate. Which could be good or bad depending how bad Sessions replacement is, but you can't get much worse than sessions so theirs that

I heard that as well, but Sessions said he wouldn't consider it (let's see what he says after Trump fires him, lol). I suspect that if Moore does win, and is expelled, it will be Strange taking the seat.

[Paranoid Android]

You need two thirds of the Senate to vote to expel one of their own.

Which means you need a significant number of Democratic votes.

But why would they play along? That would let the Republicans replace Moore with another Republican who will merrily vote their agenda but be less embarrassing.
So, not very likely to happen, and the Republicans know it.

Thats what I'm saying the Democrats are not going to vote YES to kick this pedophile out. I'm betting they will even though it was a shady way he got elected.

[Wvvtayy]

Thats what I'm saying the Democrats are not going to vote YES to kick this pedophile out. I'm betting they will even though it was a shady way he got elected.

Uh, yes they will. Dems would rather have a run of the mill republican over this wackjob even if he wasn't a pedophile. He's far enough to the right to make even McConnell and Paul Ryan seem level headed in comparison

[tumppu]

The election is too far away. Any "wavering" voters will have forgotten about his... questionable taste in dates and will just vote him because "NOT DEMOCRAT HEYOOOO". Obviously, actual credentials mean dick all in these races.

[Breccia]

Any "wavering" voters will have forgotten about his... questionable taste in dates

Yeah, no. It's going to be brought up every day. Any debates? It'll be in those. Ads? All of them.