Paul Ryan makes it official: Republicans are coming after Medicare next

[Shadowferal]

It is at times like these that I remember my childhood. In school, we were taught about the US, a country where one could make it from dishwasher to millionaire with drive and determination, a place of opportunity. But today it seems that those dishwashers have less and less opportunity. And soon, it seems, they will be stuck washing dishes if they ever get sick.
Was that mentality always there in America and we on the outside just did not see it? Or is that a recent development?

During the 50s and 60s.
70s was when things were losing steam.
Then Reagan hit and it all went to hell.

[Theinquisition]

Which states are you thinking off, out of curiosity?

Well CA has an estimated 450 billion in unfunded pensions, which is expected to balloon to 1 trillion

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-...100871752.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick.../#55b5c2d9420f

Additionally, if you also allocate overall debt to include federal, it comes up to about 1.83 trillion.

http://californiapolicycenter.org/ca...vernment-debt/

Yeah, this is the kind of debt that is raping il. right now.

Just because CA has a large economy, doesn't mean they don't have problems, along with Il. and NY.

http://californiapolicycenter.org/ca...-1-3-trillion/

As of june of 2015, each taxpayer of CA is on the hook for 73,917, and that appears to be just at the state level.

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If the blue states can stop funding the red states, those debts would be easily handled.
　
　

blue states have their own issues.

[Shadowferal]

...and yet CA is one of the least dependent on Federal money.
　

[Lenonis]

I agree 100%. Medicare should not be a government issue. Let the states form their own welfare programs, and let charitable organizations and people fund their own private clinics and such to take care of the needy.

The problem with this philosophy is in times of great need like after the 2008 crash one of the first thing that dries up is charitable giving. You need a safety net that is able to function even when no one has anything to give. Private charity won't cut it when things are bad.

[Kasierith]

At this point, I'm not overly dismayed at medicare being moved onto the state level. The states that are financially successful will be fine. The ones that are unsuccessful and poor will not be. And considering that the latter were overwhelmingly responsible for putting the current GOP into power, it's basically a matter of you reap what you sow.

[GreenJesus]

Pension plans in California were insane. Whatever you make for your last year, you get that every year till you die. So people would do over time to boost their last year's income.

[Rasulis]

Well CA has an estimated 450 billion in unfunded pensions, which is expected to balloon to 1 trillion

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-...100871752.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick.../#55b5c2d9420f

Additionally, if you also allocate overall debt to include federal, it comes up to about 1.83 trillion.

http://californiapolicycenter.org/ca...vernment-debt/

Yeah, this is the kind of debt that is raping il. right now.

Just because CA has a large economy, doesn't mean they don't have problems, along with Il. and NY.

http://californiapolicycenter.org/ca...-1-3-trillion/

As of june of 2015, each taxpayer of CA is on the hook for 73,917, and that appears to be just at the state level.

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blue states have their own issues.

All fifty states face alarming pension problem. California has the nation’s largest unfunded liability in absolute dollar terms (you are correct about the 1 trillion number), but it's funded ratio of 35.6 percent is the 21st best. The size of the debt is a reflection of the size of its population and state government.

On the other hand, Texas, the flagship of the red states, is barely doing better at 36.9% funded ratio. New York is actually doing pretty good at 44.9% funded. Alabama is 30.3% funded, Kansas 29.9%, North Dakota 28.9%, Nevada 32.7%. All worse than California. Bottom three are Illinois, Kentucky & Connecticut at 23.8%, 23.4% and 22.8%. Top three are Wisconsin, North Carolina and South Dakota at 63.4%, 47.9% and 47.8%.

[Theinquisition]

All fifty states face alarming pension problem. California has the nation’s largest unfunded liability in absolute dollar terms (you are correct about the 1 trillion number), but it's funded ratio of 35.6 percent is the 21st best. The size of the debt is a reflection of the size of its population and state government.

On the other hand, Texas, the flagship of the red states, is barely doing better at 36.9% funded ratio. New York is actually doing pretty good at 44.9% funded. Alabama is 30.3% funded, Kansas 29.9%, North Dakota 28.9%, Nevada 32.7%. All worse than California. Bottom three are Illinois, Kentucky & Connecticut at 23.8%, 23.4% and 22.8%. Top three are Wisconsin, North Carolina and South Dakota at 63.4%, 47.9% and 47.8%.

All true, the point im making is that some of these blue states have some major issues they have to face, along with red states as well. CA, NY....they get portrayed as being economic meccas, when they have the same proportional debt as places like Portugal.

[Rasulis]

All true, the point im making is that some of these blue states have some major issues they have to face, along with red states as well. CA, NY....they get portrayed as being economic meccas, when they have the same proportional debt as places like Portugal.

Here is state debt as percent GDP for 2017.

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com...nding_2017pH0C

At 15.6%, California is pretty average, and lower than Texas and Nevada.

I just checked Portugal debt as percent GDP. It is 130% in 2016. Obviously none of US states are even close to that.

[Theinquisition]

Here is state debt as percent GDP for 2017.

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com...nding_2017pH0C

At 15.6%, California is pretty average, and lower than Texas and Nevada.

I just checked Portugal debt as percent GDP. It is 130% in 2016. Obviously none of US states are even close to that.

If you include unfunded liabilities, its damn close.

[Rasulis]

If you include unfunded liabilities, its damn close.

I assume Portugal has its own unfunded liabilities. So no. It is still not close.

[Dontrike]

Entitlement programs are only bad when it's the poor getting them, but when it's an entitlement program (tax cuts) for the rich suddenly everything is fucking fantastic and we need to do everything possible to make sure those 1% parasites can keep their 8 houses.

[callipygoustp]

Feel sorry for you folks in "red" states. But, then again, you get what you ask for. At least corporations are being taken care of.

[hakujinbakasama]

Yep. Decades of rhetoric about how the poor are lazy and rich people are the prophets of jobs will do that. Trickle down economics makes a return as if it wasn't bad enough the last time around.
Corporations buy politicians and the media to propagate this message and influence people into voting against their own interests for these corporations' greed.

I forgot how the money dossapesr from the economy when those people get breaks.

Math is super hard. Economics is derivatively hard.

[Milchshake]

All fifty states face alarming pension problem. California has the nation’s largest unfunded liability in absolute dollar terms (you are correct about the 1 trillion number), but it's funded ratio of 35.6 percent is the 21st best. The size of the debt is a reflection of the size of its population and state government.

On the other hand, Texas, the flagship of the red states, is barely doing better at 36.9% funded ratio. New York is actually doing pretty good at 44.9% funded. Alabama is 30.3% funded, Kansas 29.9%, North Dakota 28.9%, Nevada 32.7%. All worse than California. Bottom three are Illinois, Kentucky & Connecticut at 23.8%, 23.4% and 22.8%. Top three are Wisconsin, North Carolina and South Dakota at 63.4%, 47.9% and 47.8%.

It's almost like someone passed a law allowing states and business to underfund their pensions on purpose.

[breadisfunny]

At this point, I'm not overly dismayed at medicare being moved onto the state level. The states that are financially successful will be fine. The ones that are unsuccessful and poor will not be. And considering that the latter were overwhelmingly responsible for putting the current GOP into power, it's basically a matter of you reap what you sow.

and those people that are in those states that didn't vote for the gop?

[Rasulis]

If you include unfunded liabilities, its damn close.

I got bored today. Christmas tree and decorations up, and can't hang any lights or do yard work because of the wind. So I thought I would see if adding the unfunded liability will increase US states debt close to Portugal.

CA state and local debt combines is 423 billion. Unfunded liability based on 2.344 percent return, which is considered a “riskfree” rate (way overly conservative in my opinion), and 9% employees' and employers' contribution (subject to reappraisal in 2018) is .956 trillion. Total is 1.379 trillion. CA GDP in 2017 is projected to be 2.79 trillion. So combined it comes out to be 49.4%. Not close to 130% debt level of Portugal. Keep in mind, the 0.956 trillion is based on unfunded liability over the life of the retirement fund.

Next we do Texas. Debt is 289 billion plus unfunded liability of 360 billion divided by GDP of 1.64 trillion, and we get 39.6%.

We'll do NY also. Debt is 352 billion plus unfunded liability of 347 billion divided by GDP of 1.54 trillion, and we get 45%.

Not one of the big three comes close to 130% GDP, even when we add the unfunded liability to their debt.

[Nellise]

Keep in mind, the 0.956 trillion is based on unfunded liability over the life of the retirement fund.

I think that's what most don't realize when they throw out these "unfunded" numbers. That's not what's owed today. I think in Illinois when they use that total number, it covers liabilities for something like the next 75 years. The numbers get huge when they compound them like that, but if they manage to dump only $5 billion more a year or something into the plans they could make it all disappear.

[Mormolyce]

It is at times like these that I remember my childhood. In school, we were taught about the US, a country where one could make it from dishwasher to millionaire with drive and determination, a place of opportunity. But today it seems that those dishwashers have less and less opportunity. And soon, it seems, they will be stuck washing dishes if they ever get sick.
Was that mentality always there in America and we on the outside just did not see it? Or is that a recent development?

I don't have figures going back in time to prove it, but I'd hazard a guess that that has always been propaganda. The US's social mobility is actually pretty poor compared to its peers.


https://www.brookings.edu/research/t...-of-education/

[Brubear]

I got a couple of links of my own for you:

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/30...olvent-by-2033

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/24...lvency-by-2034

Is your solution to do nothing? By the time I hit 50 both programs will be insolvent. To do nothing to reform these programs (or abolish them) is financial irresponsibility of the highest order. Doing nothing guarantees that future generations will have to deal with a catastrophic situation where the government has to decide between defaulting on its debt or monetizing the debt through the Federal Reserve and creating massive inflation (destroying the value of the dollar in the process).

You may not like Ryan's solutions, but if you or your political party don't offer any solutions then someone is going to have to step up to the plate and get the job done whether you like it or not.

Maybe, just maybe, instead of writing a $1.5 trillion check they can't cash and slashing tax revenue all so their corporate donors can get a tax break they don't need, they should have written a tax reform bill that helped shore up those systems?

Really tired of the GOP actively trying to make the situation worse (see: the onerous legislation they passed on the Post Office to force it to go from running in the black to running in the red) just so they can turn around and say "See! We TOLD you it wasn't working, so now we have to cut it!"

It's not working because you keep slashing its budget/diverting money from it to your pet projects like tax cuts for corporations.