Guild Wars 2 is too different to be successful?

[Malthurius]

MMORPG gamers are used to certain things, things like grinding, gear conveyor belts, skinner psychology, and subscription fees. Which GW2 is said to have none of these.

For those who don't know, WoW became successful by being the first MMORPG to do things right to appeal to a larger audience of people by being approachable and easy to understand. They did this by taking features from other MMOs (EQ and Ultima) and making them easier to understand and making them more appealing to a casual audience. They didn't change a lot, but what they did change was small enough to be familiar to old EQ and Ultima players, but different enough to appeal to a larger audience and overall be a better, funner game.

Here is my great fear. Guild Wars 2 isn't doing this "Small change" They are attempting to revolutionize the entire genre in one fell swoop by taking out and replacing long lasting features like Raids, Quests, and the Trinity. It's very different from what WoW is, and is very different from any other MMO that's come out in a while. Will this attempt to change everything attract a large audience of players? Or doom it to underground popularity by being too different.

That's not to say all games that have attempted to change the formula a little like WoW has have always come out on top. But does the MMORPG community need tiny steps to accept innovation? Or is such a large leap in another direction for the MMORPG genre too much to take, to the point that it feels alien to common experiences.

Just to clarify, I look forward to the game and I know I'm posting this is a forum that is generally excited for the game, but honest opinions are a virtue.

TL;DR If you don't have the time to read, you don't have the time to comment, get out.

[Lenin]

Someone has to do it.

[Kakuzo]

Well, maybe it's more of a "sink or swim" kind of thing? From what I know close to all of my friends really wanna look more into the game when I explain dynamic events for one.
It's alot of change, yes. But things can aswell change for the better good. And alot of people feeling burned out from WoW this might be the thing they want.
But you might aswell be correct. Meaning there is a possibility it might sink.

[Rowen]

Sometimes I thought the same, not because the mechanics are extremely divergent (seriously, DEs are at the end of the day not that different from quests, etc) but because it seems to abandon, if partially, the Skinner-box gear treadmill mechanics, thus losing the hook that keeps MMOers tied to the game for long periods of time. And it's a very powerful mechanic, look at the number of people who say they absolutely hate WoW but kept playing every day for years.

That could be a problem if players just buy the game, level their toons and abandon it after a while much like a single player game, perhaps entering from time to time to do a DE or spend an hour doing WvWvW. This shouldn't lead to less revenue for arenanet, since if the player liked the game they'd buy the following expansions, but may mean sparsely populated servers.

[Deleted]

Here is my great fear. Guild Wars 2 isn't doing this "Small change" They are attempting to revolutionize the entire genre in one fell swoop by taking out and replacing long lasting features like Raids, Quests, and the Trinity. It's very different from what WoW is, and is very different from any other MMO that's come out in a while. Will this attempt to change everything attract a large audience of players? Or doom it to underground popularity by being too different.

GW2 isn't even trying to take over the MMORPG genre nor are they trying to even take over WoW. As such you cannot in any way or form say it won't perhaps be "successfull": as long as they get enough income to cover all their costs then it has already been successfull. And just look around yourself: there's hundreds of thousands of people worldwide excited about it, in other words there's more than enough money coming to cover all those costs, including everything spent on development.

[Deleted]

I see your point OP but I disagree.

1. Had Guild Wars 2 been released 2 years ago, then yes, it might have been too innovative for its own good. But taking the current Zeitgeist into consideration, I don't think it's true any longer. Especially over the past year people have become more and more open-minded towards some of the concepts innovated by GW2. Even WoW is adapting some of those philosophies in MoP (PvE scenarios e.g.)

2. Despite all the marketing, Guild Wars 2 really doesn't PLAY all that different from a regular MMO. I know all the marketing likes to focus on what's different but there's still so much that's staying the same. Dynamic Events aren't that different from regular quests if you think about it. They just don't have a quest-giver. But you're still pursuing a pre-determined objective served to you by the game. The RPG systems too really isn't all that different if you think about it.
What I'm trying to convey is that despite all the marketing, Guild Wars 2 will feel pretty familiar once we get our hands on it. After all, ANet is evolving the genre, not re-defining it.

[Malthurius]

GW2 isn't even trying to take over the MMORPG genre nor are they trying to even take over WoW. As such you cannot in any way or form say it won't perhaps be "successfull": as long as they get enough income to cover all their costs then it has already been successfull. And just look around yourself: there's hundreds of thousands of people worldwide excited about it, in other words there's more than enough money coming to cover all those costs, including everything spent on development.

They have to sell at least a little over 300k copies of their game to make their money back (assuming development costed them 20mil which it could be more considering 20mil was the development cost of EQ2, and GW2 has much more features that cost much more). They can make their money back I'm sure at this point, but being successful is another beast all together. It's one thing to break even, it's another to actually make a profit by making a product people will actually enjoy and people will continue to support.

Like I said, I'm excited for the game myself and I know how many people are excited for it. But the game has to be successful in order to promote further innovation in this market lacking innovation. If Publishers don't see a profit in future innovation, they wont green light future projects with such ambition.

[Deleted]

They have to sell at least a little over 300k copies of their game to make their money back (assuming development costed them 20mil which it could be more considering 20mil was the development cost of EQ2, and GW2 has much more features that cost much more). They can make their money back I'm sure at this point, but being successful is another beast all together. It's one thing to break even, it's another to actually make a profit by making a product people will actually enjoy and people will continue to support.

Well, I obviously do not have any exact numbers to throw around, but just by looking at the most popular Guild Wars 2 videos on YouTube you see the most popular videos have received well over 700k views. If even half of those people buy Guild Wars 2 at the predicted 59.99€ price the devs will have just made 21 million Euros. The likely number of people who end up buying the game will be a lot higher than that, not to mention how many people are going to buy Collector's Editions and whatnot. So, at this point they've already way past of breaking even, but that's not enough: they are still going to get a good trickle of money from their GW2 store from all the little goodies people wish to buy, including the extra character slots and whatnot.

I just really don't share your pessimism here. All my "evidence" is obviously anecdotal, but atleast my opinion gathering from it all is that they're going to do perfectly fine.

[Malthurius]

I see your point OP but I disagree.

1. Had Guild Wars 2 been released 2 years ago, then yes, it might have been too innovative for its own good. But taking the current Zeitgeist into consideration, I don't think it's true any longer. Especially over the past year people have become more and more open-minded towards some of the concepts innovated by GW2. Even WoW is adapting some of those philosophies in MoP (PvE scenarios e.g.)

You're right, people are a lot more open to change than before, that doesn't mean that people still aren't wary of it. However, positive reception from people that do try it will do a lot to attract those people after release.

2. Despite all the marketing, Guild Wars 2 really doesn't PLAY all that different from a regular MMO. I know all the marketing likes to focus on what's different but there's still so much that's staying the same. Dynamic Events aren't that different from regular quests if you think about it. They just don't have a quest-giver. But you're still pursuing a pre-determined objective served to you by the game. The RPG systems too really isn't all that different if you think about it.
What I'm trying to convey is that despite all the marketing, Guild Wars 2 will feel pretty familiar once we get our hands on it. After all, ANet is evolving the genre, not re-defining it.

They're good at their marketing then. I haven't had a chance to play the game, but it does look very different from what I've seen in other MMOs, at least in terms of execution and philosophy. I guess I should hold my tongue until beta, but I still believe this is a legitimate concern.

---------- Post added 2011-10-24 at 06:25 PM ----------

Well, I obviously do not have any exact numbers to throw around, but just by looking at the most popular Guild Wars 2 videos on YouTube you see the most popular videos have received well over 700k views. If even half of those people buy Guild Wars 2 at the predicted 59.99€ price the devs will have just made 21 million Euros. The likely number of people who end up buying the game will be a lot higher than that, not to mention how many people are going to buy Collector's Editions and whatnot. So, at this point they've already way past of breaking even, but that's not enough: they are still going to get a good trickle of money from their GW2 store from all the little goodies people wish to buy, including the extra character slots and whatnot.

I just really don't share your pessimism here. All my "evidence" is obviously anecdotal, but atleast my opinion gathering from it all is that they're going to do perfectly fine.

I'm sure they'll do fine as well, I'm just searching for a second opinion to alleviate my fears. So far I'm quite happier than I was when I posted this topic

[Menkey]

I don't think so, I think people are truly ready for something different.

Even if it doesn't "kill wow" I can guarentee it will have more then enough players to be succesful and fully supported, if you enjoy the game there will be plenty of people for you to interact with. Some players might crawl back to WoW, or hop on the SWTOR bandwagon, but I can guarentee you I will be playing GW2 full time.

[Rahzael]

I think with the "decline" of WoW(in the eyes of many), GW2 is coming out at just the right time. This may be pure luck on their part, but I'm glad they were so lucky.

[Valeron]

I don't think so. I have heard from a lot of non-mmo gamers that they are actually looking forward to playing GW2, or at least it looks interesting to them. So in addition to GW fans and other mmo players who are looking for something a bit different, the game will pick up some players that the genre normally wouldn't have.

I do think there are still some familiar elements in the game play that most mmo players will feel comfortable with the game.

[Blackmist]

GW2 is *different enough* to be successful.

Cloning the typical MMO trait of dragging the whole thing out into a timesink has hardly worked well for WoW's many competitors over the years.

[Hraklea]

If games that are too different wouldn't be successful, we would be playing pong and galaxy until today.

On a more serious answer, I don't think it is "too different". It is new, but it is just an improvement of what already exists. If there were a "WoW 2", that's exactly how I would expect it to be.

Things that might make GW2 fail, in my opinion:
- It is too cheap, I'm really worried about no-subscription MMOs
- Poor support/bugged/lagged (I'm not familiar with ANet quality)
- Fanboyism ("WoW is the best eva! /thread" kind of people)
- Newbie unfriendly (I don't know if it is the case)

[Koshun]

I think it will succeed. It will succeed for the same reasons people don't play only RTS games or FPS games; a lot of gamers tend to play all types of genres, so their view of each is more flexible.

If GW2 is trying to be to the top MMORPG, then maybe you're right. However, if it's trying to be the top game that has features such as a massive, muliplayer world and RPG elements, then no, you are wrong.

I hope this all makes sense. I guess my main point is, if you're trying to restrict it to being a certain genre, then yeah, it might fail. However, if you take it as a game, and play it just as a game, then no, it will not fail.

*snip*

Things that might make GW2, in my opinion:
- It is too cheap, I'm really worried about no-subscription MMOs
- Poor support/bugged/lagged (I'm not familiar with ANet quality)
- Fanboyism ("WoW is the best eva! /thread" kind of people)
- Newbie unfriendly (I don't know if it is the case)

There was an interesting video that was posted on the forums not too long ago. It addressed many of the issues you present in an intelligent manner. I suggest you find it and watch it; it's actually pretty enlightening, even for those that were hell-bent on buying the game prior to watching it.

[Skyve]

I feel like GW2 is doing many things that people are simply tired off right, so I doubt it will fail.

[Blackout15]

I disagree with the OP here. I think the changes GW is making will attract more people who have left the mmo genre because of the holy trinity, quest grinds, and grinding to max lvl just to raid. I know for myself i can not stand to play a game with these mechanics anymore....i literally get sick to my stomach. They just bore me to death. So i think the community will look at the changes as something new which will draw a lot of customers.

[whill4]

If this game doesn't make at least double the amount of money they have put into it within the first six months of launch I will run naked through the streets of Philadelphia

[Kolo]

Guild Wars is attempting to be the RPG equivalent of Counter-Strike more than it's attempting to be another MMO. Obviously it will have considerably more depth than a shooter but the idea is to keep people playing because they like playing the game and not because a new pixel told them they had to.

[Althazina]

The fact they are actively trying to be different and putting a good honest effort into it makes me want to buy the game regardless. Even if it falls flat on its face at least they can say they tried, and were bold enough to try something new. I like to support artists in general who always try something new and different, even if their creation doesn't turn out to be something everyone likes. We get nowhere by recycling the same thing over and over.

Having said that, there are some things which aren't "broke" per se (the trinity, raids) and some people do seem to enjoy them. On the other hand, there are so many mmorpgs with the trinity and raids it seems silly to make Guild Wars 2 into yet another rehash of the same thing. A lot of gamers seem to be tired of the 'same old same old' anyway, and if Guild Wars 2 didn't deliver something new to them it wouldn't have the hype it does now.

All in all I don't think GW2 is that different anyway (not in the sense that it's so foreign it'll turn people away). If it is, it'll just be a learning experience for everyone. *shrug*