When do you think HDD prices will return to normal?

[Asera]

I voted 1 year, but I'd say 2 or 3, honestly.

The amount of separate components in a drive, combined with the R&D drive manufacturers dump into them getting rerouted to rebuilding, the amount of channels the platter drives fill (Retail, OEM, E-tail, Externals, DVRs, Expanding datacentres/businesses/databases, RMA requests, repairs, recovery companies, government, so on and so on), the amount of time it will take to reinstate a plant to the required level of clean to be able to make the drives, relocating, not to mention the inherent problems in Thailand itself needing to be resolved (namely disaster recovery) before most rebuilding can begin...

And after all that, WD is really going to be hurting for money, as nowadays drive manufacturers don't make a whole lot of profit per drive compared to its production cost.

Shit... 3 years, at best for normal prices...

Edit: Unless WD starts to pour more focus in SSD tech, which would be a welcome addition, and probably a path they might have to take to make enough back down the road, not to mention remain competitive with Hitachi and Seagate which didn't get hit nearly as hard...

[Deleted]

(OLD average) 1000GB $60
.06c/GB

Corsair Force3 120GB $170
$1.41/GB

Samsung Spinpoint F3 1000GB $160
.16c/GB

If your proposed idea was correct, SSDs would cost far less than they currently do. It's getting closer, but it still has a long way to go.

No i didn't say that, i just tried to show that if one toke speed as an equal value to capacity then that "score" would be closer together then just comparing price/GB

Didn't say SSD would have a better score at this point but just that it would show another picture then what we have now.

[Blackmist]

And this is why the US should stop depending on other countries for supplies. GREAT SOME DAMN JOBS HERE IN THE US!

Yeah, get back to us when you'll work for under $100 a month...

[omglaserzpewpew]

here on iceland, a 1tb SATA3 goes for 18.990 ISK, which is 160 USD, but that's been the price since... ever. electronics here are really expensive, so the fact that it costs twice as much here than it does in the US doesn't mean it's "expensive" for our taste. cause you know... the computers here generally cost twice to three times as much as they do in the US, or in denmark for example. stupid taxes we have on electronics... so yeah... they haven't increased in prices everywhere, it's the same here as it was pre-flooding, in fact i even think some of them are cheaper...

then again i'm pretty sure your average icelander earns twice as much a year than your average american, not sure what you earn on average a month, but i earned closed to 3k USD last month, and i worked 2 weeks in that month (7 day shifts, 9 hours a night), so i'm not even pulling the average amount of work hours we have here, which is around 160 hours a month, i was working close to 120...

I was so confused when I read that... ISK is the currency they use in EVE Online; I had no idea it was an actual currency. I feel kinda dumb now. But it makes sense, since CCP is based in Iceland.

Anyways, I would imagine that we will never see prices return to where to they were before. Once consumers are used to paying a higher price, what motive will a hard drive manufacturer have to lower prices? There might be some price cuts for the sake of competition, but not to the levels we were at before.

[Deleted]

Wow, I didn't realise they'd go up so much. I bought a Samsung Spinpoint F3 for £41 in June, now they're £102 on the same site! If people do genuinely get used to paying these prices (as not buying HDDs isnt really an option as they are an essential component whether your pc is for gaming or just office use) then it will take at least a year for prices to get to the range they were at before, I suspect.

[haxartus]

Wow, I didn't realise they'd go up so much. I bought a Samsung Spinpoint F3 for £41 in June, now they're £102 on the same site! If people do genuinely get used to paying these prices (as not buying HDDs isnt really an option as they are an essential component whether your pc is for gaming or just office use) then it will take at least a year for prices to get to the range they were at before, I suspect.

The Spinpoint F3 1000GB was €45 here and now is €135. That is 200% increase in price...

[Zka]

When some earthquake stopped ram production around 2000, the effects lasted for 1+ year for sure.

[haxartus]

Technically, it's 300%, since 45 Euro would be 100%, 90 Euro would be 200% (double), and 135 Euro would be 300%

No, a jump from 45 to 135 is exactly a 200% increase.
135=45(1+p/100)

[BicycleMafioso]

Yea, "increase with" rather than "increase to".

[Hoticehunter]

Technically, it's 300%, since 45 Euro would be 100%, 90 Euro would be 200% (double), and 135 Euro would be 300%

Then what would an increase in 0% be? 0 euros? That's not how it works.

100% is double, 200% is triple, 300% is quadruple, 0% is no increase.

[dotKaine]

I think very few retailers/distributors are, as you say, taking advantage of the situation. They are adapting, yes. But they aren't trying to rip anyone off.
Supply and demand.

Even the manufacturers not directly affected by the flood will have a shortage of drives availible, as you have to realise, the OEMs that previously bought from the ones who were affected, will now focus every single resource on buying up all availible drives from the unaffected. At any price. With economical muscles consumers can't match.
Meaning the few that sips by them, will be in high demand, with lots of buyers for few drives.

Before everything is recovered? At least a year before the underhand in shipping is fixed, and then the prices won't just snap over, over a night.
So.
1-2years or more.

I think you missed the context of that statement as I was specifically referring to Samsung branded drives (specifically the immensly popular SpinPoint F3 HD502HJ and HD103SJ), the production of which finished well before the Thai flooding and likewise, the stock was already purchased by the relevant distributors/vendors.

[anb]

I think very few retailers/distributors are, as you say, taking advantage of the situation. They are adapting, yes. But they aren't trying to rip anyone off.

thats exactly what is happening. My local retailers start driving up prices right away when first news about flood come in. And it doesn't matter if drive was manufactured a year ago, ALL hdd's went up, because you know, what salesman would not want to increase profit up to 300% without doing a shit, when such opportunity is there.

[Deleted]

sucks giant, giant bollocks. i didn't buy a drive when i originally bought my pc as i didn't have the money. now i'm stuck with a great pc with only one 500gb drive. was looking to buy a few TB of storage around november/december, but yeah, not anymore. guess i will keep having to delete old games as i get new ones, cause i won't be getting any more storage for a while.

[BicycleMafioso]

I think you missed the context of that statement as I was specifically referring to Samsung branded drives (specifically the immensly popular SpinPoint F3 HD502HJ and HD103SJ), the production of which finished well before the Thai flooding and likewise, the stock was already purchased by the relevant distributors/vendors.

I'd like you to provide a source that say they stopped the production.

---------- Post added 2011-11-20 at 03:39 PM ----------

And it doesn't matter if drive was manufactured a year ago, ALL hdd's went up, because you know, what salesman would not want to increase profit up to 300% without doing a shit, when such opportunity is there.

Uhm, of course it doesn't matter? Why would it matter?
And then I'd say that retailer is the snowflake rather than the avalanche.

[haxartus]

Higher demand + lower quantities=higher price.
Even if a HDD manufacturer is not affected, the demand for their hard drives will increase, which will increase the price.

[Deleted]

I bought one from Webhallen for 500 SEK today (£50) because I ordered it before the prices went up and they took their time. Yay me!

[DarkBlade6]

http://www.overclock.net/t/1170410/t...mal-for-1-year

According to Seagate , 1 Year

[Deleted]

thats exactly what is happening. My local retailers start driving up prices right away when first news about flood come in. And it doesn't matter if drive was manufactured a year ago, ALL hdd's went up, because you know, what salesman would not want to increase profit up to 300% without doing a shit, when such opportunity is there.

Just because the price goes up doesn't mean the total profit will. Sure, the salesman will earn a lot more per drive, but at the same time he will sell a lot less of them. I personally was planning to get a 2TB drive for storage, but now I have changed my mind. A lot of customers are thinking the same; "the price of HDDs make them not worth buying".

As such, increasing the price will net them more money because the supply is way less, but compared to before the total income for that particular product (HDDs) will be about the same or even less depending on the demand now that the prices have gone up. Remember, the price directly correlates to supply and demand for a given product in a real business.

A store (or salesperson) is always out to make the most money, and he does this by meeting the demand with a proper price of the given supply; increasing or decreasing the price will only reduce the net profit. If the supply is drastically reduced, the price needs to be increased to reduce the demand. It's basic economics.

Taking advantage of the situation is of course increasing the price, no denying that, but it will not net a greater profit in the long-haul.

[ewhenn]

Bought a 3TB drive for $85+$7 tax yesterday.

Score.

[Berteh]

Not affecting us here in Australia, the prices are all the same as they were before the floods.

I want to know where you are living, because where I am, they are affected :'(