2013 NBA Season News and Discussion

[Blueobelisk]

On level of efficiency? Alright here's how efficiency works:

Overall Kevin Durant is rank 1. Dude is in 50/40/90 club while scoring so highly. I think he's just a monster shooter.

#2 is Lebron James, because he has good shot selection AND he has the super athleticism to take it to the rim and no one can stop him.

#3 is CP3. I think CP3 has the best shot selection ever (to go along with his superior court vision) and he's a great shot taker, but not on the level of Lebron and KD. He scores less points since his position forces him to facilitate/pass, but eh.

#932299 is Kobe who asks for the ball and fires randomly

Melo takes a lot of shots and he's good at working a single defender but I wouldn't say he's totally efficient, there are quite a few not-so-hot nights.

[Spectral]

Chris Paul was also more efficient than Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony (For Lebron you have to exclude his dunks/layups),

This is why I stopped attempting to discuss Rose/Paul in any serious manner with you. Reasonable people can disagree about things, but you just make shit up as you go along.

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#3 is CP3. I think CP3 has the best shot selection ever (to go along with his superior court vision) and he's a great shot taker, but not on the level of Lebron and KD. He scores less points since his position forces him to facilitate/pass, but eh.

The best shooter I've ever seen at point guard is Nash. His 8-year stretch in Phoenix was a 51/43.7/91.2, which is just absolutely monstrous. I feel like having those kind of splits automatically means his shot selection was great, even though a lot of those shots look awkward. But yeah, CP3's lack of forcing bad shots up is enormously valuable. A lot of guys that are choosey with shots have high turnover ratios, and he never has, which is really striking.

[Stommped]

This is why I stopped attempting to discuss Rose/Paul in any serious manner with you. Reasonable people can disagree about things, but you just make shit up as you go along.

What about that am I making up? Stop trying to paint me as this idiot who doesn't understand stats and is blindly firing them at you. It is a factual statement that Chris Paul had a higher FG% from 5ft and beyond. If you want to disagree with me excluding his dunks/layups then that's fine, that's what Blue did. But don't call me an out right liar, or say I'm making shit up for no fucking reason.

http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.htm...PerMode=Totals
http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.htm...PerMode=Totals

Paul - 294/675 = 43.56%
James - 336/777 = 43.24%

[Spectral]

What about that am I making up? Stop trying to paint me as this idiot who doesn't understand stats and is blindly firing them at you. It is a factual statement that Chris Paul had a higher FG% from 5ft-29ft. If you want to disagree with me excluding his dunks/layups then that's fine, that's what Blue did. But don't call me an out right liar, or say I'm making shit up for no fucking reason.

Excluding close shots is making shit up for no reason. Getting close shots is a skill, as is making them. A huge chunk of Lebron's value is tied up in his ability to get a high volume of close range shots and then make them at an absurd rate. Simply choosing to ignore them for no particular reason is a great example of you moving goalposts whenever you're in the mood and completely lacking consistency.

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Here, let's give you a shot to demonstrate consistency. In your favorite Derrick Rose season, and the only season that apparently counts for him, 2010-2011, the Bulls played the Nets four times. The Nets won three of four, and Rose averaged 19-3.3-3.3 on 38.5% shooting. The only game the Bulls won was when Devin Harris was out. With Harris, the Nets won all three games and Harris averaged 17.3-3.0-7.7. So, Devin Harris, better or worse than Rose?

[Stommped]

Excluding close shots is making shit up for no reason. Getting close shots is a skill, as is making them. A huge chunk of Lebron's value is tied up in his ability to get a high volume of close range shots and then make them at an absurd rate. Simply choosing to ignore them for no particular reason is a great example of you moving goalposts whenever you're in the mood and completely lacking consistency.

As I said above, Lebron's size/speed/strength allow him to get way more dunks than Paul. Is it fair to count those when talking about shooting efficiency? I don't think so. Dwight Howard used to among the league leaders in FG% every year in Orlando, common sense if you are shooting more often from close range than someone else you are going to appear more efficient.

Here, let's give you a shot to demonstrate consistency. In your favorite Derrick Rose season, and the only season that apparently counts for him, 2010-2011, the Bulls played the Nets four times. The Nets won three of four, and Rose averaged 19-3.3-3.3 on 38.5% shooting. The only game the Bulls won was when Devin Harris was out. With Harris, the Nets won all three games and Harris averaged 17.3-3.0-7.7. So, Devin Harris, better or worse than Rose?

Wrong. The Bulls won 3 of 4. I'm the one making shit up though right? (How could you even post that without double checking yourself, the Nets were shit awful back then and the Bulls had the best record in the league...)

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Game 1:

Derrick 19 9 4
Devin 10 9 2

Game 2:

Derrick 21 1 1
Devin 18 11 4

Derrick 41% shooting and Devin 39% after those 2 games

Games 3 and 4 Devin Harris didn't play, so Mr. Hypocritical strikes again. Says I'm making shit up, clearly wrong about stats he posts....

[Spectral]

As I said above, Lebron's size/speed/strength allow him to get way more dunks than Paul. Is it fair to count those when talking about shooting efficiency? I don't think so. Dwight Howard used to among the league leaders in FG% every year in Orlando, common sense if you are shooting more often from close range than someone else you are going to appear more efficient.

Efficiency is the ability to create shots that score at a high rate. There's no reasonable definition of "efficient" by which Dwight Howard isn't an efficient player. You focus far too much on aesthetics and not near enough on outcomes. Perhaps that's part of why you overrate Rose so thoroughly. It sure looks to the naked eye like he's more impressive than Paul, even though he's shooting a lower percentage, getting less assists, turning the ball over more, and not rebounding any more. But hey, he looks good doing it!

Wrong. The Bulls won 3 of 4. I'm the one making shit up though right?

Oops, read it backwards! Well, they won three in spite of Harris outplaying Rose. Do you really not see why three games of head to head is wholesale irrelevant?

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Games 3 and 4 Devin Harris didn't play, so again Mr. Hypocritical strikes again. Says I'm making shit up, clearly wrong about stats he posts....

That's weird, the Harris Splits page shows 3 games for Harris: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...1/splits/2011/

I suppose I should stick to my guns with dropping it though. It's a wildly uninteresting conversation to me. The whole falling back on head to head stats, cherrypicking samples, and relying on aesthetics thing is just not really all that interesting. You've got me, I agree, Derek Rose is taller and faster than Chris Paul.

[Stommped]

Oh he got traded mid season to Utah for Deron Williams. So the 3rd game was against Utah here: http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=310312004

[Spectral]

That explains it. Sorry, fucked up.

[Jibjabb]

Not sure I want to touch the whole Chris Paul - Derrick Rose debate since it could open another shit storm but I feel I should. As a big Bulls fan that has watched practically all their games I am pretty surprised how underestimated they and Derrick have been getting by some people here. With that said though I definitely do not find that saying Derrick > Paul is an easy statement and Im not even sure if its a statement I would make at this time, especially with the uncertainty of his injury. Paul does need to improve his playoff record like Melo, I cant say its all his fault since I have seen him have some stellar games but as the best player on the team as a PG I think there are times he needs to be more like Derrick and take over offensively rather than work off his teammates. Blake Griffin is a guy that cant be trusted especially late in games. He will have a non shit coach now so maybe that will improve under Doc, plus the west is looking more and more open for takers than ever.

Detroit is perplexing me. On one hand I like they are making a once again competitive team but then again they are going to be stuck in the worst possible position in the NBA. A low end playoff team with no real young stars to grow off of. If only they couldve waited a season or 2 more to get some highly touted rookies and then start building a legit team their chances would improve drastically. At least in the Cavaliers case they just now got the #1 pick and have a growing Irving so they have a shot at becoming a contender if those players can develop.

[Spectral]

Paul does need to improve his playoff record like Melo

In 40 career playoff games, Paul has averaged 20.9-9.5-5.0 on 48.2% shooting with 2.2 steals and 3.0 turnovers. Isiah Thomas averaged 20.4-8.9-4.7 on 44.1% shooting with 2.1 steals and 3.3 turnovers. Personally, I'd say being just a tick better than Isiah Thomas is pretty good. I think you're overestimating how much one player can do.

[SL1200]

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/8/2...gns-miami-heat

Oden goes to the Heat. Looks like a good move for them if he can get healthy.

[conscript]

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/8/2...gns-miami-heat

Oden goes to the Heat. Looks like a good move for them if he can get healthy.

Bold prediction: There is a better chance that Greg Oden, the much maligned #1 pick in 2007, will have a bigger impact in the NBA Finals than Kevin Durant, the much celebrated #2 pick.

[Spectral]

Bold prediction: There is a better chance that Greg Oden, the much maligned #1 pick in 2007, will have a bigger impact in the NBA Finals than Kevin Durant, the much celebrated #2 pick.

Well, hmmm. Hmmm. From an odds standpoint, there's got to be, what, about 2-3 times the chance that Miami is in the finals as OKC? I suppose then you have to decide what you think the chance is Oden makes it to the Finals. My over/under on his games played would be about 31.5, so I'm going to take Durant in that bet.

I really don't love that the Thunder are currently set to rely on getting quality minutes from Lamb, Liggins, and Jones though.

[Jibjabb]

In 40 career playoff games, Paul has averaged 20.9-9.5-5.0 on 48.2% shooting with 2.2 steals and 3.0 turnovers. Isiah Thomas averaged 20.4-8.9-4.7 on 44.1% shooting with 2.1 steals and 3.3 turnovers. Personally, I'd say being just a tick better than Isiah Thomas is pretty good. I think you're overestimating how much one player can do.

And TMac would average 30+ PPG with like 6 boards 5 assists yet his record was terrible and he never made it out the first round until he was a nobody on the Spurs bench. One player isnt the whole team in basketball, but one player can make a huge impact. Want all the credit for winning games then you need some blame when you lose.

[conscript]

Well, hmmm. Hmmm. From an odds standpoint, there's got to be, what, about 2-3 times the chance that Miami is in the finals as OKC? I suppose then you have to decide what you think the chance is Oden makes it to the Finals. My over/under on his games played would be about 31.5, so I'm going to take Durant in that bet.

I really don't love that the Thunder are currently set to rely on getting quality minutes from Lamb, Liggins, and Jones though.

I have no idea if 31.5 is a generous over/under on Oden or not lol. He could literally shatter at any time or he could look like a dominant big man again. Could you imagine if he does actually look as good as he used to? Holy fuck Miami would be insanely good.

[Blueobelisk]

Is he coming off the bench or is Miami shifting Bosh back to PF and Lebron as SF? That'd be a sick ass front court + Wade and Ray Allen in backcourt? That's easily top 3 starting 5 in whole NBA if Oden plays well.

I'd place Nets PP KG DWill BLopez and JJohnson after them.

After that? I'm not thinking clearly since its early but I guess uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Golden State got revamped with superstars to have a nice starting 5.

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Oh ya. I saw some comparisons people were making of Kobe and Shaq tandem to Harden and Dwight. I don't think Harden and Dwight are badass enough to three peat.

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Oh yeah I also forgot to mention. Stop with the Derrick Rose and Chris Paul best point guard discussion. Enough.

John Wall already made it clear when he stated that he is the best PG in NBA. That settles that.

[conscript]

Is he coming off the bench or is Miami shifting Bosh back to PF and Lebron as SF? That'd be a sick ass front court + Wade and Ray Allen in backcourt? That's easily top 3 starting 5 in whole NBA if Oden plays well.

I'd place Nets PP KG DWill BLopez and JJohnson after them.

After that? I'm not thinking clearly since its early but I guess uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Golden State got revamped with superstars to have a nice starting 5.

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Oh ya. I saw some comparisons people were making of Kobe and Shaq tandem to Harden and Dwight. I don't think Harden and Dwight are badass enough to three peat.

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Oh yeah I also forgot to mention. Stop with the Derrick Rose and Chris Paul best point guard discussion. Enough.

John Wall already made it clear when he stated that he is the best PG in NBA. That settles that.

If Wall continues developing like he did in the second half last season I can see that actually becoming an argument after the nee ext season or two. Wall was great at the end of last year.

I think Oden is probably going to be more of a bench guy most of the time until his health is verified. If healthy he is going to see plenty of playing time though some Miami needs to rest the big guys as much as they can, well wade at least needs a fuckton of rest to actually be able to perform in the playoffs.

[Spectral]

If Wall continues developing like he did in the second half last season I can see that actually becoming an argument after the nee ext season or two. Wall was great at the end of last year.

Also, the full context of the statement, as is so often the case with these sorts of boasts makes it seem fine:

Chris Mannix: Where do you rank among NBA point guards?

John Wall: I rank myself the best.

Chris Mannix: Number one?

John Wall: Yeah, I rank myself the best.

Chris Mannix: Are you basing that on past accomplishments or are you basing that one what you can do in the future?

John Wall: Just basing it on what I can do in the future.

What's he supposed to say? Tell the reporter that he thinks he can be pretty good, but surely not the best? He's 22 years old and coming off a two month stretch where he averaged 23-8-5. Those are basically the same numbers we can reasonably expect if Rose is completely healthy. If Rose is healthy and if what Wall did in the last two months represents his true talent level, they're pretty similar players, really. The Wizards were an absolutely trainwreck without Wall, and an above average team with him - why shouldn't he feel like he's incredibly valuable and on the way up? He's a number one overall pick that's been plagued with horrible teammates and nagging injuries.

I'm not saying he's going to be the best point guard in the league. Like with most young players, the smart money would certainly be against it. I just don't really see a problem with him being asked directly where he'd rank himself and essentially saying, "I can be the best in the league".

[PyrrhusKing]

Chris Paul was also more efficient than Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony (For Lebron you have to exclude his dunks/layups), more assists than them, and more steals as well. So I guess by your logic Chris Paul is just the best player on the planet?

No, you cannot discount that. You cannot just take away his most efficient form of scoring to boost your argument. Chris Paul is better than Carmelo, that isn't a very difficult argument. Better than Lebron, no. Efficiency doesn't discount dunks and layups, that wouldn't make sense.

You're trying to approach this in a purely scientific way and it just doesn't work that way. Normally bigger sample size > smaller sample size, but not in this case. In a large sample size Paul is playing against Wester Conf. teams for the majority and Derrick is playing against Easter Conf. Judging the games where they play AGAINST each other and GUARD each other is great tool to see who the better basketball player is. If I beat you in one on one 11-0, barring something bizarre I think it's a fair assumption that I am better than you, I shouldn't have to beat you 100 more times to develop that conclusion. By increasing the sample size you are actually bringing MORE influencing factors that skew the results, such as what I listed above and the amount of time each player has been in his prime.

Cool, I'm approaching it scientifically and you're discounting certain types of scoring and saying stuff along the lines of "being more athletic means you are a better player". Except basketball isn't one on one nor have we seen Derrick Rose beat Chris Paul one on one nor Paul beating Rose one on one for that matter. Basketball is a game with five people on the floor for each team, how can you toss out a one on one example when Paul has better court vision and is a better passer. If Rose was able to beat Paul in a one on one game it still wouldn't prove Rose is better, it would simply show that he is a better one on one player. That isn't what the NBA is. You cannot use the small sample size of their match ups to say one is better than the other. Lebron isn't better than Kobe because Lebron performs well in their games, he is better because we can look at both statistically and see Lebron is better.
Is Rose a good point guard? Yes, but he isn't better than Paul at this point. You do not get to shape your own stats and exclude certain things for the benefit of your argument.

I'm glad you made an account just for this.

So what? You're making a horrible argument and saying silly stuff like "you have to take out Lebron's dunks and layups".

I can see Oden giving the Heat quite a boost. The situation seems almost perfect for him. He has Lebron who can make almost anyone look good and he will have to carry a small load for a number one pick. He also showed quite a bit of potential when he was healthy. He should still do fairly well even if he isn't nearly as good.
I could see Wall being one of the top guards if he was to continue to develop a better jump shot. Other young point guards are already a ways ahead of him in that regard.

[Blueobelisk]

Just curious but how does Miami not have the best starting lineup in the league? You have the best player in 30 years, the best SG in basketball, a solid PG who is clutch, a top ten PF and probably Anderson or Battier, both good players.

1. I sort of lied because Ray Allen is a bench player, and he doesn't really start. But even if we include him in best 5 people in Miami (or you can include Mario Chalmers, like you want)

2. The frontcourt is playing out of position so I won't rank them above Brooklyn's superstars. Are super-Lebron, Wade, and Bosh better than any three people in Brooklyn's starting line up? Easily, they are. But as a starting 5:

PG: Mario Chalmers vs. Deron Williams - Nets
SG: Dwyane Wade vs. Joe Johnson - Heat
SF: Udonis Haslem vs. Paul Piece - Nets
PF: Lebron James vs. Kevin Garnett - Heat
C: Chris Bosh vs. Brook Lopez - Nets

Nets win 3/5 positions in my book, but even if you disagree I'd still say Nets starting lineup is better than Heat's in this situation without Oden there. (Not that I have faith in injuries and age for Nets over a long season.)