1. #2601
    Quote Originally Posted by jreg View Post
    Last year, no question the MVP was LeBron. This year, it's really fucking murky. As you said, short of a collapse from either OKC or Durant, it looks like this year is his to lose.

    LeBron's mid range game isn't bad but it's also prone to hot and cold streaks. It's improving every year though. The "killer late game instinct" is a load of garbage. Stop perpetuating Skip Bayless narratives. In clutch situations as defined by 82games, LeBron has always been one of the best in the league. Furthermore, I think it's pretty evident LeBron can handle himself just fine when looking at last year's finals performance against Durant.
    Uhh the entire Spurs and Mavericks finals? The collapse in game 5 and 6 against Boston? Or perhaps the fact in game tying or winning situations in the final seconds over his career he is 9 for 56. An astounding 16.1%. And the last one he hit was in the 2008 season. (With Miami he is 0-9). I think that last part speaks for itself. Look it up on http://www.basketball-reference.com/...hot_finder.cgi if you want.

    And I do get that % do go down in those final moments when all the pressure is on and you are forced to take tough shots. But for a comparison in that same time period as Lebron my guy Dirk Nowitzki is 13-41 (31.7%) in those same situations. Practically double what Lebron is.

    I dont think his midrange game is bad either its been getting better. Its still unreliable and thats his biggest downfall. Team's still pressure him to make outside shots ala Rajon Rondo. When he's on hes practically unstoppable, but often time he isnt and thats where his game gets exposed. Not sure what Skip Bayless has to do with this.
    Last edited by Jibjabb; 2013-02-04 at 06:53 AM.

  2. #2602
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jibjabb View Post
    Uhh the entire Spurs and Mavericks finals? The collapse in game 5 and 6 against Boston? Or perhaps the fact in game tying or winning situations in the final seconds over his career he is 9 for 56. An astounding 16.1%. And the last one he hit was in the 2008 season. (With Miami he is 0-9). I think that last part speaks for itself. Look it up on http://www.basketball-reference.com/...hot_finder.cgi if you want.

    I dont think his midrange game is bad either its been getting better. Its still unreliable and thats his biggest downfall. Team's still pressure him to make outside shots ala Rajon Rondo. When he's on hes practically unstoppable, but often time he isnt and thats where his game gets exposed. Not sure what Skip Bayless has to do with this.
    Are you seriously going to argue his ability to play in crunch time on ONE SHOT? The significance of the last shot is largely media driven hype bud. How you play leading up to it is FAR more important. We're talking about 47 minutes and 36 seconds of game time versus the last 24 seconds or less. This is the part most people who actually believe in "killer instinct" seem to forget. This is the Skip Bayless narrative I'm talking about.

    Also, are you seriously picking on a tiny sample of games from his past? That's like saying Dirk sucks against small defenders by pointing out the Golden State Warriors series when this is evidently not the fucking case.

    By the way, your numbers are bogus. That or you messed up the settings on that finder.

    http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

    This is out of date and he's got 17 game winning shots.
    Last edited by jreg; 2013-02-04 at 07:03 AM.

  3. #2603
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=fg 2012-13
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=fg 2011-12
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=fg 2010-11
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=fg 2009-10
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=fg 2008-09
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l=&order_by=fg 2007-08
    Theres a few more seasons but ya I think you get it. Same criteria was used for Dirk.

    It isnt all that matters yet that is THE clutch shot. And where stars/legends are made is when its all on the line. Are you going to defend these stats? Or his play in the previous 2 finals as clutch? Heck I dont even care about the 4th quarter for those games, look at the whole thing. He was pathetic. Last year was the best postseason he ever had for sure, theres no denying that. That doesnt make up for how terrible he was previously nor did he make any killer shots in that series either. Nobody is saying hes bad its saying when the game is on the line there are a LOT of other people I would rather have taking the shot than Lebron James.
    Last edited by Jibjabb; 2013-02-04 at 07:20 AM. Reason: had a bad link

  4. #2604
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jibjabb View Post
    <URL snip>

    It isnt all that matters yet that is THE clutch shot. And where stars/legends are made is when its all on the line.
    And this is precisely what I mean by media driven bullshit. Naturally, the last shot is exciting and great for storylines but the vast majority of the time, you will never see this shot because one team simply played better for the full 48 minutes. Period. People need to stop dwelling on this if you want to talk serious basketball and not fluff. Your sentence even reads like hyperbolic nonsense.

    Furthermore, your settings for "clutch" shot are ridiculously tiny in scope. Is a jump shot with 30 seconds to go to go up by two possessions not as "clutch" as the last shot? Both are winning shots. There's a reason why most sites prefer to obtain larger sample sizes for "clutch" play. You're picking the worst statistical approach possible.

    Also, you basically exclude any shot that's actually classified as a game winning shot but never came within the tiny constraints you've set. Hence why LeBron actually has at least 17 game winners.

    Are you going to defend these stats? Or his play in the previous 2 finals as clutch? Heck I dont even care about the 4th quarter for those games, look at the whole thing. He was pathetic. Last year was the best postseason he ever had for sure, theres no denying that.
    Right, first off, Spurs series wasn't about being clutch. He was completely overwhelmed by playing as the one man army and it eventually caught up once they ran into a ridiculously good Spurs team. Am I excusing him for his poor performance? No, but people have got to stop lumping in this finals with the Dallas one as "choking". It's not the same thing. His performance against Dallas is his biggest blight but as we saw last finals, he's past it now. In fact, I'd say he needed it or he'd never have matured enough as a player.

    That doesnt make up for how terrible he was previously nor did he make any killer shots in that series either. Nobody is saying hes bad its saying when the game is on the line there are a LOT of other people I would rather have taking the shot than Lebron James.
    And I'd pick LeBron James every single time because the vast majority of the time, it will never come down to a last shot situation. You're picking for media hype, on the last shot of a game filled with over 90 possessions. I'm picking the rest.

  5. #2605
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    Quote Originally Posted by jreg View Post
    And this is precisely what I mean by media driven bullshit. Naturally, the last shot is exciting and great for storylines but the vast majority of the time, you will never see this shot because one team simply played better for the full 48 minutes. Period. People need to stop dwelling on this if you want to talk serious basketball and not fluff. Your sentence even reads like hyperbolic nonsense.
    Wait didn't you know that Big Shot Rob is widely considered a top 5 NBA player all time because of the clutch shot?

  6. #2606
    Well you wanted to know why I think he isnt clutch, so I provide the evidence. He is crap in the final seconds of close games, that part is inarguable. You can sit there and say how it isnt all about the final seconds, all his other values before then blah blah blah blah blah. Ill say it once more. He is crap in the final seconds of close games, that part is inarguable. And that makes you not a clutch player in my book.

    But I shall humor you. So lets say ya being clutch isnt about the last second shot anymore. It isnt about the volume of close game makes either, since that the same arguments used against Kobe, that his percentage is bad. So lets go with late game efficiency. I've took the sample size and put it towards the final minute where you are tied or trailing by 3, a lot bigger than 5 seconds. Lets see the results. Get those umbrellas kids cause its about to rain cold hard facts up in here.

    In the final 1 minute of games where they trail by 3 or are tied Lebron James career numbers are 57 of 147. (38.8 FG%) A lot better than his awful last second shot numbers, yet still a huge dropoff from his actual averages of 48.7%, almost a 10% dip. Now lets go to my guy Dirk since he is what I would call a true clutch player and any time I can back up his game in my arguments makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. His numbers are 42 of 92. (45.7%) Dangerously close to his career average of 47.4%. So these numbers are on a much wider scale of what you can call meaningful shots in the 4th quarter/OT of games and yet we still get similar results. Lebron's stats are poor compared to Dirk Nowitzki despite actually being a better percentage shooter over his career.

    And cmon man, your actually making me laugh with that Spurs defense. You act like the team he beat right before it the Detroit Pistons, who were oh btw literally 1 game away from being the defending champs against those same San Antonio Spurs, were now a pushover and that the Spurs were now some giant leap up in competition from them. Heck if anything you are selling Lebron short in that series. The Pistons were a dominant team, they had one of the best on the ball stoppers for Lebron and Lebron played pretty well in order to take them down. Then ofc he goes to the next round, the NBA finals, and plays like a heaping pile of dog shit and they get swept. What changed? Hmmmmmm. I wonder.... /rubs chin

  7. #2607
    Jibjabb your numbers for LeBron are only bad because your criteria is ridiculous. Making the criteria less than 5 seconds is literally a "last second shot" with very small chance of success, plus you're including the regular season, where the necessity of winning those games is dubious at best. Also, while LeBron has not been very clutch for his entire career, since he left Cleveland he has turned around dramatically. He hit a lot of clutch shots in the final minutes of the 2011 ECF against Chicago, and I don't need to tell you what he did last year against the Celtics and Thunder.

    That 82games link has LeBron at 4/8 in the playoffs with less than 24 seconds left and the game is either tied or LeBron's team is down by 1-2 points. That's the exact same statline that Kobe has. Your boy Dirk is 3/6 in that same situation, so all three of those players are shooting .500 under that criteria.

  8. #2608
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neazy View Post
    Jibjabb your numbers for LeBron are only bad because your criteria is ridiculous. Making the criteria less than 5 seconds is literally a "last second shot" with very small chance of success, plus you're including the regular season, where the necessity of winning those games is dubious at best. Also, while LeBron has not been very clutch for his entire career, since he left Cleveland he has turned around dramatically. He hit a lot of clutch shots in the final minutes of the 2011 ECF against Chicago, and I don't need to tell you what he did last year against the Celtics and Thunder.

    That 82games link has LeBron at 4/8 in the playoffs with less than 24 seconds left and the game is either tied or LeBron's team is down by 1-2 points. That's the exact same statline that Kobe has. Your boy Dirk is 3/6 in that same situation, so all three of those players are shooting .500 under that criteria.
    Clutch means coming thru at the time and moments that matter and Lebron isn't good in those situations. He usually will pass the ball more then naught where somebody like Jordan,Montona,Mariano show up take command and don't fold under pressure. Lebron is an amazing player and will go down as one of the best of all time but his mental aspect of the game doesn't put him at the top like it did Jordan.

    Edit post: I'm not flaming Lebron I'm just saying he doesn't have that same tick that the 1 percent of athletes have and it's not a bad thing he is who he is he doesn't have to be Jordan or Montana he is Lebron James and athletic wise those mentioned can't touch Lebron he is a freak of nature only rivaled by people like Michael Phelps.
    Last edited by Skarsguard; 2013-02-04 at 11:27 PM.

  9. #2609
    He singlehandedly won game 6 (and by extension, the series) against the Celtics last year. He's been getting better every year for years and making a blanket statement like "he doesn't have the mental aspect of his game" is just wrong. In 2010 against the Celtics, he had a chance to step up and win game 6 and he failed. In 2012 against those same Celtics in the same situation, he basically took his cock out of his pants and slapped KG in the face with it.

  10. #2610
    Haven't bothered to read through this argument. Just wanted to say I think Piston's new Jose Calderon is playing tonight and Detroit is gonna get raped by Knicks. I think that's the only good game tonight.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-04 at 07:10 PM ----------

    OH YEAH. AND !!! SKARS. I was prepping for super bowl I didn't have time to post that thing!

  11. #2611
    I wish people that obsess over the whole "clutch" thing had a better grasp of how small sample sizes aren't that useful for building narratives. The evidence for an individual player being "clutch" or a choker is going to be inherently thin due to small sample sizes, and the overarching data indicates that there's only a few players who have a different true talent level at the end of games than during the context of the rest of the game. A full year's worth of data from 82games.com's close and late situations (5 minutes left, under a point lead/deficit) still only constitutes about a hundred minutes, which is barely of any use at all for building a valid case.

  12. #2612
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectral View Post
    I wish people that obsess over the whole "clutch" thing had a better grasp of how small sample sizes aren't that useful for building narratives. The evidence for an individual player being "clutch" or a choker is going to be inherently thin due to small sample sizes, and the overarching data indicates that there's only a few players who have a different true talent level at the end of games than during the context of the rest of the game. A full year's worth of data from 82games.com's close and late situations (5 minutes left, under a point lead/deficit) still only constitutes about a hundred minutes, which is barely of any use at all for building a valid case.
    How else do you propose we define a player is clutch? Say "he may be 0/10 in the final minutes BUT HE COULD HAVE MADE THE SHOT!!1"? Small sample size isn't ideal, but when it's all you've got, then it's all you've got.

  13. #2613
    Quote Originally Posted by Neazy View Post
    How else do you propose we define a player is clutch? Say "he may be 0/10 in the final minutes BUT HE COULD HAVE MADE THE SHOT!!1"? Small sample size isn't ideal, but when it's all you've got, then it's all you've got.
    We acknowledge that we don't really have any idea if a player is actually clutch, given the relative dearth of evidence that players "clutchness" is much more than a normal statistical distribution. I guess you can describe past behavior as clutch or not, but it's not very predictive of future behavior. Sure, give someone credit for making a shot, but it makes no sense to draw conclusions about a player's skill (when it's not clear if it's even a real skill at all) on the basis of eight or ten shots.

  14. #2614
    It's not just the numbers, though. It's a general feeling you get from watching a player combined with numbers. LeBron managed a triple double (27 pts/19 reb/10 ast) in game 6 against the Celtics in 2010, so statistically you could say it was a good night. But he looked fucking defeated and no one who actually watched that game would have said that he played well.

    Is 8 shots how you judge a player? No. But you can combine the knowledge you get from those 8 shots with the feeling you get from watching him to make an accurate assumption. My feeling from watching LeBron is that he didn't know how to elevate his game against outstanding competition as recently as 2 years ago, and while he's no MJ, he's a much better clutch player now than he was then. Those 8 shots back up my opinion, but they're not the reason I have that opinion.
    Last edited by Neazy; 2013-02-05 at 03:25 AM.

  15. #2615
    I'm disinclined to put much emphasis on my subjective idea of what someone looked like when there's better evidence available than what I'm thinking as I watch a guy. I'd agree that the 2010 Celtics game is a bizarre special example, pretty much everyone saw the same thing and agreed that it was a bizarrely passive, defeated game. Nonetheless, I don't know why I'd put more emphasis on that the 2012 Game 6 evisceration of the Celtics, or the 25 straight points to beat the Pistons, or the shredding of the Thunder that capped last year's Finals.

    Is he a different player now, or does he just seem different because his team's good enough to finish off a Finals? I'd be inclined to say it's the latter (although he's demonstrably better at certain skills like post game and mid range shooting). When he ripped through the Pistons then lost in the Finals, I'm more likely to pin that on being a one man show against one of the great team units around in San Antonio; with Pop and Duncan, it was always a safe bet to count on the Spurs beating a team that didn't have a real second option (Mo Williams is not a real second option for a title contender).

    Might there actually be something that clicked and is different? Sure, that's possible, people change and mature and grow into things. He seems different to me too, I'm not denying that. All I'm saying is that the evidence for it is inherently thin and we tend to come to conclusions that we're very, very sure of that aren't warranted by the evidence. Have an opinion? All well and good. Being completely sure of it? Eh, not as much.

    edit - In case it's not clear, I'm a huge Lebron guy, I love everything about his game other than his inexplicably bad free throw shooting. I think I've seen the same change most people say they've seen, I'm just a lot less sure of it, since it's just as plausible that the problem in Cleveland was a dreadful supporting cast, and we've had examples of him carving teams up in big games before last year.
    Last edited by Spectral; 2013-02-05 at 03:36 AM.

  16. #2616
    He changed. He had a fucking amazing supporting cast in 2011 against the Mavs, and then averaged 16 points throughout 6 finals games and even scored as low as 8 points in one game. For weeks ESPN went crazy with that graphic that said "no player who averaged more than 25 PPG in a season has ever scored below their season average in an entire finals series". Last year? He played one of the most complete playoff runs in the history of the NBA.

    Like I said, the guy's no Jordan (this year against the Celts he refused to take Rondo to the hole, settled for a jumper, then missed the game-winning shot and went on to lose in double OT), but I don't think he needs to be Jordan. He's spent the last 10 years learning how to be the alpha male and it's finally coming together with his athletic ability to combine for an unstoppable player.

  17. #2617
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jibjabb View Post
    Well you wanted to know why I think he isnt clutch, so I provide the evidence.
    Which was highly limited in scope. Anyone with even a basic understanding of statistics knows how flawed this analysis can be. If you want to evaluate the "clutchness" of a player from the most objective approach possible, you need to provide a comprehensive framework.

    He is crap in the final seconds of close games, that part is inarguable.
    So are a ton of other great NBA players. The final seconds of close games are difficult fucking situations. There's a reason why the average FG% for a game winning shot is fucking awful. I'm not saying that the last second shot shouldn't be held in some esteem but to base the entirety of clutch play on a tiny sample which is highly susceptible to aberrations is flat out ludicrous.

    You can sit there and say how it isnt all about the final seconds, all his other values before then blah blah blah blah blah. Ill say it once more. He is crap in the final seconds of close games, that part is inarguable. And that makes you not a clutch player in my book.
    I'm not arguing the bolded. I never did. I've explained in depth why your metric of modelling clutch performance is retarded and in a way I feel should be more than elucidated for you. Throwing it away so flippantly suggests to me you don't want to talk about basketball, you want to stick with that media hype machine. You also need a better book.

    In the final 1 minute of games where they trail by 3 or are tied Lebron James career numbers are 57 of 147. (38.8 FG%) A lot better than his awful last second shot numbers, yet still a huge dropoff from his actual averages of 48.7%, almost a 10% dip. Now lets go to my guy Dirk since he is what I would call a true clutch player and any time I can back up his game in my arguments makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. His numbers are 42 of 92. (45.7%) Dangerously close to his career average of 47.4%. So these numbers are on a much wider scale of what you can call meaningful shots in the 4th quarter/OT of games and yet we still get similar results. Lebron's stats are poor compared to Dirk Nowitzki despite actually being a better percentage shooter over his career.
    Again, the sample size is still tiny. What Dirk does in extreme closing time is admirable. I am not doubting his gifted shooting ability or its consistency but it's a framework that still needs to be expanded and viewed from many angles. One problem with this analysis is that it completely disregards all other stats besides scoring and raw shooting percentage.

    http://www.82games.com/1011/10MIA9.HTM#clutch
    http://www.82games.com/1011/10DAL14.HTM#clutch

    http://www.82games.com/1112/11MIA8.HTM#clutch
    http://www.82games.com/1112/11DAL11.HTM#clutch

    LeBron being bad at last second shots != LeBron being bad in the "clutch".

    As an aside, I find it very curious you're so high on Dirk when for years he was known as a perennial playoff failure until 2011 (of this, I find ridiculous with the exception of the Warriors series). Which then leads me to ask; why do you do the media thing with LeBron but not Dirk? I can very well acknowledge all of LeBron's faults. Can you with Dirk?

    And cmon man, your actually making me laugh with that Spurs defense. You act like the team he beat right before it the Detroit Pistons, who were oh btw literally 1 game away from being the defending champs against those same San Antonio Spurs, were now a pushover and that the Spurs were now some giant leap up in competition from them. Heck if anything you are selling Lebron short in that series. The Pistons were a dominant team, they had one of the best on the ball stoppers for Lebron and Lebron played pretty well in order to take them down. Then ofc he goes to the next round, the NBA finals, and plays like a heaping pile of dog shit and they get swept. What changed? Hmmmmmm. I wonder.... /rubs chin
    No I'm not. You're reading what you wanna read. Nowhere did I say the Pistons were pushovers. Simply stating that the Spurs that year were a great fucking team which they were; basically the Pistons but better in every aspect of the game. And the Cavs ended up losing in 4 games by an average of 6 ppg. Everyone played like a "heaping pile of dog shit" except Tony Parker. It was a brutal defensive series and the worst Finals in NBA history in terms of viewership because of it.

  18. #2618
    I base my opinions on what I see and the stats I see, whether analysts want to agree or disagree I dont overly care. Dirk was always unfairly judged imo because if you watched the games (and conversely look at the numbers) his playoff stats are pretty incredible. He had 1 awful series against Golden State, Im not debating that and if I had to say why it was its cuz the speed at which they through multiple defenders at him constantly, all these quick little guys flying at him took him off his game and I credit Don Nelson for knowing Dirk's weakness at the time since he was Dirk's coach for years so naturally he knew his game well and what he liked and didnt like. Some guys get too much blame and some get too much credit. In the too much credit category I put Lebron (obviously), Nash, Rondo, Melo. In the not enough I put Dirk, Duncan, Durant, Aldridge, Z-Bo. Im sure theres more thats just off the top of my head.

    With Lebron its mostly the same in terms of I recognize his greatness and I also recognize his flaws. And to me his inability to play big in the closing minute of games is a flaw. As someone pointed out he has had really great incredible playoff games, I never really argued against that. He has always been able to show up in the playoffs, didnt mean he always did but he clearly was capable. When I watch him play usually those dominate games from him come in what normal turn into blowouts in the 3rd quarter or so cause he and the team are playing so well (like the Game 6 that was mentioned). Not always but usually. When its close late his game tends to change, he gets more passive and to me more timid. I cant honestly say how he feels, nobody can, I can however provide stats for those situations like I have to back up why I feel that way.

    I've also said Lebron's game works against him in the closing seconds, which partially isnt his fault cause thats how he always plays, it just doesnt translate well for the last second shot. Think about it, who would you call some of the clutch players of today and the past? I think most people would agree that Jordan, Melo, Dirk, Kobe, Reggie Miller, etc have been known to be clutch players. What is the difference between them and Lebron in terms of gameplay? All of them I would say the best part of their game was their mid-range shot and they were very effective from three as well. Range isnt Lebron's strongest point, he has gotten better for sure (I dont mean to act like hes terrible) but his game is mostly using that big quick hulking body of his and taking it to the teeth of the defense. That doesnt always work late games, refs typically dont wanna end games on foul calls and with Lebron's poor FT shooting he may not want to get fouled for risk of messing up the FTs, idk. Im not in the dudes head.

  19. #2619
    I'm glad my Spurs are number 1 in the power ranking. I'm just worried about the injuries that the team faces. Hopefully Duncan, Ginobili and Parker can be healthy always.

  20. #2620
    Lakers @ Nets :O. If Nets lose...I'd be so disappointed. I wouldn't even be like sad or angry, I'd just be let down. Contenders have to beat scrub teams.

    So like. Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, and Tim Duncan are all like injured. That just opened 2 West starter spots + 1 West bench spot.

    Replacements? Steph Curry duh. And...Did Marc Gasol get in yet? If not. Him. And uhhhh. We might as well let OKC claim having an All Star big 3 to rival Heats so we'll send in Ibaka.

    ---------- Post added 2013-02-05 at 08:09 PM ----------

    Oh btw I heard DRose is taking full contact sooooo let's see what happens. Bulls vs. Denver on national TV Thurs night would be a convenient come back.

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