Early Access Rumors and Pre Order date question

[Dosvidaniya]

how can people be sure that pre-ordering = putting in pre-order code aswell.

They can't, but it doesn't matter assuming they actually do the math right. We can assume that the same percentile of people delayed inputting their code every single day. Unless there was some obvious reason (which I can't think of beyond possibly week 1 errors), we can assume that to be true. The net impact is that your relative position is unchanged. The actual ""number" of your location in the queue changes, but relative to the front and back, it stays the exact same.

(This is old, when I extrapolated a guess of December sales. 3-Dec was wrong, but it doesn't matter because of the Chebychev's theorem which is why I listed a range on your position in queue. Just know you'll have a higher probability of being closer to the max position).

+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|                |Total Pre-orders|   Weekly Change|    Max Position|    Min Position|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|        10-Dec**|         1035534|           67389|          89.78%|         100.00%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|         3-Dec**|          968145|           67389|          83.53%|          97.53%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          26-Nov|          900756|           74916|          76.58%|          90.74%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          19-Nov|          825840|           72708|          69.84%|          83.19%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          12-Nov|          753132|           54543|          64.78%|          75.87%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|           5-Nov|          698589|           43779|          60.72%|          70.37%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          29-Oct|          654810|           48732|          56.20%|          65.96%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          22-Oct|          606078|           57573|          50.87%|          61.05%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          15-Oct|          548505|           30283|          48.06%|          55.25%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|           8-Oct|          518222|           54709|          42.98%|          52.20%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|           1-Oct|          463513|           37377|          39.52%|          46.69%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          24-Sep|          426136|           23221|          37.36%|          42.93%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          17-Sep|          402915|           16778|          35.81%|          40.59%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          10-Sep|          386137|           26355|          33.36%|          38.90%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|           3-Sep|          359782|           25452|          31.00%|          36.24%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          27-Aug|          334330|           32680|          27.97%|          33.68%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          20-Aug|          301650|           36726|          24.57%|          30.39%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          13-Aug|          264924|           60993|          18.91%|          26.69%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|           6-Aug|          203931|           97322|          11.06%|          20.54%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+
|          30-Jul|          119260|          119260|           0.00%|          12.01%|
+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+----------------+

Using distribution patterns, you can guess where you'll end up. It's difficult because we don't know the exact number of preorders (these are VGChartz U.S. only physical only numbers) or server capacity, but you can guess what percentile will have to be let in in order for you to be next. You can ballpark where you'll fall +/- a day rather easily.

[Neofate]

you are going to get in in early access, thats all we can say for sure. As for when, no one can say, only guess. My guess is that they feel safe letting in between .5-1 million people a day, since that is approximately how many a day they let in on the american thanksgiving weekend beta.

True -- but you have to anticipate they doubled the server capacity (roughly) since then. The closed beta after it only had a few servers.

They wouldn't want to keep the same 50 servers .. although, the big problem is the queuing not the servers once a person is online.

What I remember from late July/August is that they were originally only going to give early access to the first 500k, which was supposedly filled by the end of july (possibly even on the 21st). This lets me guess with a fair bit of assurance that you will not be in on day 1, nor possibly day 2. September would be a decent bet for day 3 access.

They should have put a cap on it.. but I gaurantee any 'caps' went away with the money potential they saw right away. Although they STILL maintain they have limited the game digitally and physically to what their servers can handle. HAH!

Now, for this you would have to know the rough numbers of digital orders. They haven't released this info (if they have, please link).

It can be estimated it is equal to physical orders at 2 million, or some speculation can go as high as 4-5+ million total.

I tend to think we are running about 2 million overall. I think the appeal to order a physical copy, for the money, without knowing what we know now.. was more appealing than digital.

Though those numbers still leave ~1 million digital downloads/orders.

At that rate.. I still maintain they will get everyone in , in 48 hours. Giving even the last batch(s) 4 days.

They kept the 'up to 5 days' graphic WHEN they announced the 7 days.. and it was a new, redesigned graphic never before seen. You have to wonder why they would continue to advertise 'up to 5' days even now.. if they weren't planning on giving the last about, 5 days. The early orders, to me, get 2 days extra access -- and middle order 2 days.. Every other order, 5ish.

my july 22nd preorder code (really wish i knew i had to put the code in when I bought it on the 21st) is probably going to get me at the bottom end of day 1, or at least day 2

I put you in at 7am Tuesday to be honest man.

We can both be wrong obviously.. but we have differences of speculatory opinion

[mypally]

I tend to think we are running about 2 million overall. I think the appeal to order a physical copy, for the money, without knowing what we know now.. was more appealing than digital.

Though those numbers still leave ~1 million digital downloads/orders.

I wish the official forums werent wiped so I could go find the poll with several thousand responses that put digital orders way above physical (the sample size was large enough for it to be statistically relevant). So I really do think that the 3 mil+ guesses are correct, but I wouldnt be shocked if it was lower (though not lower then 2 mill).

I like Dosvidaniya's analysis, mainly because it puts me around the upper 12% (think it would be 13-14% if you adjust the percentages for his missed estimations of the last 2 weeks of sales), which means im in the first 1/7th of the people who preordered (though barely if im at the bottom end of the 14%). Worst case, as Neofate said, I'm early day 2, which is fine for me.

edit to add:

True -- but you have to anticipate they doubled the server capacity (roughly) since then. The closed beta after it only had a few servers.

They wouldn't want to keep the same 50 servers .. although, the big problem is the queuing not the servers once a person is online.

regardless of how many playing servers they have, they said that they want to keep the influx of people who are logging in under what it was on the beta (they are more worried about their login servers then the game servers). So one could reasonably expect that the influx of people for the preorder will be smaller then that of the beta, just to ensure the smooth launch.