Maelstrom crystals

[Count Zero]

My guild loaded up on them during t11 and t12. We're selling them for 25g a pop to guildies.

[usiris]

You failed to take the other guild perk into account. Bountiful bags gives on average a 20% or so addition to the items received from disenchanting. 175g / 1.2 = 145.83g per maelstrom after accounting for the average proc on the guild perk. So, I continue to stand by my statement as the price tends to be about 140 to 160g per maelstrom based on luck

I'm not taking that into account, nor ever will.

When I calculate how much gold I'm going to be making on something, its not going to be on luck(or rng). Its going to be on the statistical average I'm going to make from that item(raw shard, break to heavenly shard and enchants) minus ah cost. Anything other than that is a bonus.

[quietstrm07]

I'm not taking that into account, nor ever will.

Then you're not properly pricing the cost of your materials, just saying. There's a reason I order more than 50 de's at a time to help account for the RNG

Also, if you are going off statistical average, the average bonus perk is around 20%. That's statistics and can be counted on when you work in large numbers. Either way it goes, my server's MC are >200g each, so it's easy profit regardless

[Weerra]

I respect people like you. People who care more about helping others are better people than those making a gold supply they won't do anything with. That being said, post 4.3, it's been harder for me to get maelstroms to help my guildies out via the dungeon finder

Harder? How come?
New dungeons felt way faster than the trolls to me and they drop the same crystals too.

---------- Post added 2012-01-05 at 06:16 PM ----------

Then you're not properly pricing the cost of your materials, just saying. There's a reason I order more than 50 de's at a time to help account for the RNG

Trying to buy things up to the statistical price accounting for random procs means that you will be winning petty cash at the risk of losing some if they don't proc.
It averages out? Yes.
Worth the time? Nope.

[quietstrm07]

Trying to buy things up to the statistical price accounting for random procs means that you will be winning petty cash at the risk of losing some if they don't proc.
It averages out? Yes.
Worth the time? Nope.

That's also where a bit of logic comes in. I buy enough of them at a time that basing my decisions off of averages does tend to work out. At the same time, if maelstroms drop on ah to 155g a piece, it may not be worth the risk. But at say 170g a piece, I'd rather keep on de'ing the cloaks

[usiris]

Also, if you are going off statistical average, the average bonus perk is around 20%. That's statistics and can be counted on when you work in large numbers. Either way it goes, my server's MC are >200g each, so it's easy profit regardless

You are dealing with an irregular variable which cannot be counted on in any stat unless you are dealing with these on the number of thousands, not tens or hundreds as I assume you are.
The only way is can become a stable 20% is if you are dealing with the above.

Also I do not doubt in the slightest that you are making gold off these, Ive been selling about ~30-50 a day with an average of ~15-20g profit per shard.

(my gawd massive grammar derp edit)

[quietstrm07]

You are dealing with an irregular variable which cannot be counted on in any stat is if you are dealing with these on the number of not tens or hundreds as I assume you are but in the thousands.
The only way is can become a stable 20% is if you are dealing with the above.

Even within my small sample (total purchase of about 500 de's in 10 purchases), the purchases have ranged between 57-62 maelstroms per lot of 50. That's the reason I don't base my price on the true average cost but more look into the higher cost of the range (around 155g or so a piece). Is there really that big of a difference between our cost estimates? Not really. We could just write it off to our own personal practices

[Tilde]

Also gonna point out you can sell DE the 700 jp range items from honor and jp vendors.

Don't forget WotLK JP vendors. Depending on your economy, WotLK epic gem cuts or enchanting mats (shattering Abyss crystals) may net more gold per justice point.

[Cactrot]

You are dealing with an irregular variable which cannot be counted on in any stat unless you are dealing with these on the number of thousands, not tens or hundreds as I assume you are.
The only way is can become a stable 20% is if you are dealing with the above.

Also I do not doubt in the slightest that you are making gold off these, Ive been selling about ~30-50 a day with an average of ~15-20g profit per shard.

(my gawd massive grammar derp edit)

Your numbers really don't need to be all that high to be within an acceptable range of deviation. I mean, the probability of gettin 10 or fewer procs out of 100 is .5%. That's not really worth worrying about. Going down to 15 procs out of 100. Meh. Not a big deal. Besides, you're just as likely to win as you are to lose on that RNG. If you were really making decisions based on the "statistical average " you would need to account for bountiful bags, as it most definitely affects the statistical average.

[usiris]

@replies to me

The point is that the lower number you get the more deviation you will see, which in turns skews all numbers you have previously calculated.

Your numbers really don't need to be all that high to be within an acceptable range of deviation. I mean, the probability of gettin 10 or fewer procs out of 100 is .5%. That's not really worth worrying about. Going down to 15 procs out of 100. Meh. Not a big deal. Besides, you're just as likely to win as you are to lose on that RNG. If you were really making decisions based on the "statistical average " you would need to account for bountiful bags, as it most definitely affects the statistical average.

Let me pose this question as well, at what point are you going to stop buying and deing these cloaks? when the average price is 140? 150? 160?
And furthermore how are you going to calculate your stats into that, are you really going to bank on that 20% chance that you will get a proc?

It is not a constant that is worthwhile to calculate beyond that of a "added benefit" except when dealing with large enough numbers(previous post) or the price of maels exceeds a limit(which I haven't thought about yet).

Edit:
I will grant it is worth noting with a large enough size in the hundredths(500+).

[Stede]

Let's actually put some pencil to paper here, shall we? We think it's 20%. Proc / No-Proc is a Bernoulli variable. Bernoulli variables follow Bernoulli distributions.

If the mean is 0.20, then the variance is given by var = 0.20 * (1 - 0.20) = 0.16.

Anyone going to the trouble of going this route will be grabbing a good handful, but let's use 100 as a sample size, because it's easy. With 100 Disenchants, there's a 95% chance that you will get between 12 and 28 procs.

To me, 12 extra MCs is worth it. To me, not factoring in the BB Proc Rate to your material costs is biasing / obfuscating those costs, albeit it in a conservative manner. However, the AH game revolves around risk - when to hold em and when to fold em. Having inflated materials pricing, which also inflates crafting costs for a significant market segment such as this can easily influence a goblin to be risk-averse.

If a guy sees margins get cut 'to-the-bone' but isn't factoring in BB procs, he may decide to step out of a market where he could have still enjoyed a 15% or higher profit. It's straightforward enough to say, "Well, I don't care because even if it's cut to the bone, I'll keep selling because I know I have freebie procs mixed in there," but it's also irresponsible to assess that kind of risk without properly quantifying it if you're serious about it at all.

tl;dr: 20 percent. If you're already big enough in a market to be doing your math on something bigger than a napkin, you'll probably be using it enough that any bad variation will come out in the wash. Otherwise, math it out, like I just did, and use a conservative estimate appropriate to your scale (100 ~15%. 400 ~18%. etc.)

Happy Goblineering!

[Cactrot]

@replies to me

The point is that the lower number you get the more deviation you will see, which in turns skews all numbers you have previously calculated.




Let me pose this question as well, at what point are you going to stop buying and deing these cloaks? when the average price is 140? 150? 160?
And furthermore how are you going to calculate your stats into that, are you really going to bank on that 20% chance that you will get a proc?

It is not a constant that is worthwhile to calculate beyond that of a "added benefit" except when dealing with large enough numbers(previous post) or the price of maels exceeds a limit(which I haven't thought about yet).

Edit:
I will grant it is worth noting with a large enough size in the hundredths(500+).

I'd stop buying when I'd made enough crystals to sell. I think it's insane that you would think 20% is ignorable. If a car went from 20k to 24k, you think that's insignificant? 20% is HUGE. It is also statistically predictable. Just because there's variance doesn't mean you get to ignore it for statistical averages. You could buy ONE item and get 2 crystals, then it doubled. Zomg, low number but statistically massive difference in price. You don't just get to ignore something because you can't exactly predict when it happens. Well, you can , but don't claim you're basing your decision on statistical averages if you do.

[Biscut]

These cloaks will just run the price of maelstroms and heavenlys into the ground

[Ibis]

These cloaks will just run the price of maelstroms and heavenlys into the ground

They're too expensive to do that.

[usiris]

I'd stop buying when I'd made enough crystals to sell. I think it's insane that you would think 20% is ignorable. If a car went from 20k to 24k, you think that's insignificant? 20% is HUGE. It is also statistically predictable. Just because there's variance doesn't mean you get to ignore it for statistical averages. You could buy ONE item and get 2 crystals, then it doubled. Zomg, low number but statistically massive difference in price. You don't just get to ignore something because you can't exactly predict when it happens. Well, you can , but don't claim you're basing your decision on statistical averages if you do.

I never said 20% is a low number and that you cannot predict it with a given sample size.

What I did say is that if we were to take an average..uh..DE "session", I'll go with 100, you will not see a predictable constant as you would with 200, 300 or anything above, and that is why I will not take it into account. At the point I am right now I've sold enough to start thinking about it(but most people have not)

Also when have I said that I "ignore" the proc, I have said, like above I will not take it into account until it reaches an area where I think the sample size is large enough so that I will see a more consistent result: that can be at one DE "session" or over the course you do this activity(DE cloaks)

off topic:
How did I get steede in this thread?!?!

Edit:
I also want to clarify my position: I am not really saying anything about "you should only de them if they are over 175g" but rather, you should not take the position that Mael's will always be valued at 140-160g if you have the guild proc.

[gutnbrg]

they are going for 100g on my server, i just lvl'd my enchanter and im pretty pissed off actually that im not gonna be able to make more gold off of these things, i have about 45 crystals sitting in my bank

[Cernunnos]

Here's a quick tip for you:

1) Find enchanter that is exalted with Avengers of Hyjal
2) Give them gold to buy X quantity of rep cloaks
3) Have them DE said cloaks
4) ????????
5) Profit

At exalted and after guild perk, they come out normally between 140 to 160g on average

Is it only the Avengers of Hyjal rewards that work like that, because the 5 man rep rewards do not work like that. you cannot DE them.

[usiris]

Is it only the Avengers of Hyjal rewards that work like that, because the 5 man rep rewards do not work like that. you cannot DE them.

I checked most of them when 4.3 hit, it is only Avengers that works like this.

[Bubbletrance]

Let's actually put some pencil to paper here, shall we? We think it's 20%. Proc / No-Proc is a Bernoulli variable. Bernoulli variables follow Bernoulli distributions.

If the mean is 0.20, then the variance is given by var = 0.20 * (1 - 0.20) = 0.16.

Anyone going to the trouble of going this route will be grabbing a good handful, but let's use 100 as a sample size, because it's easy. With 100 Disenchants, there's a 95% chance that you will get between 12 and 28 procs.

To me, 12 extra MCs is worth it. To me, not factoring in the BB Proc Rate to your material costs is biasing / obfuscating those costs, albeit it in a conservative manner. However, the AH game revolves around risk - when to hold em and when to fold em. Having inflated materials pricing, which also inflates crafting costs for a significant market segment such as this can easily influence a goblin to be risk-averse.

If a guy sees margins get cut 'to-the-bone' but isn't factoring in BB procs, he may decide to step out of a market where he could have still enjoyed a 15% or higher profit. It's straightforward enough to say, "Well, I don't care because even if it's cut to the bone, I'll keep selling because I know I have freebie procs mixed in there," but it's also irresponsible to assess that kind of risk without properly quantifying it if you're serious about it at all.

tl;dr: 20 percent. If you're already big enough in a market to be doing your math on something bigger than a napkin, you'll probably be using it enough that any bad variation will come out in the wash. Otherwise, math it out, like I just did, and use a conservative estimate appropriate to your scale (100 ~15%. 400 ~18%. etc.)

Happy Goblineering!

You also forget the AH cut on that
Plus what other people do also influences market prices
A 20% gain that is proc-based simply isn't worth the risk. When crystals were 200-300g? Sure. When they're hovering at 150 and dropping (currently)? Nope nope nope nope nope!