What happened to Premonition?

[Deleted]

Tier 8: #3
tier 9: #3 or #1 (depends how you see it)
tier 10: #9
tier 11: #7
tier 12: #10
tier 13#: 6/8 and upcoming rank ~50 or sth

Hmm?

[Makarena]

In my opinion not every guild has the setup to kill spine and at the same time not every guild cares enough about already 20+ rank and thinks that its not worth it to try recruit mages/rogues just to kill 1 boss which gonna be nerfed in 1 or 2 weeks for sure.

[Deleted]

too many things could of happened for us to even speculate.

maybe a few good members left or stopped playing, resulting in a weaker roster.

they could just be finding this tier difficult, or generally not playing as much this tier around!

[Deleted]

Looks like the LFR ban really ''killed'' alot of the top guilds, they play to be number 1, after the ban it was no longer possible so they see it as pointless.

[clavarnway]

A lot of people think even the top guilds are immune to player burnout, poaching, etc. It could be any number of things.

[Burritaco]

Looks like the LFR ban really ''killed'' alot of the top guilds, they play to be number 1, after the ban it was no longer possible so they see it as pointless.

They were not banned in the LFR exploit.

http://manaflask.com/en/article/1436...le-premonition

How much of an impact is the PTR (for you) on the real progression race when it starts?

It hardly impacts us at all because we can't really make the PTR schedules anymore. We raided 1 encounter in 25 heroic, out of the 7 that were available on PTR at some point or another. We were able to raid a few of the 10s. Basically, we're just starting fresh on live, with a few snippets of information we got from the PTR.

They just don't have the increasing amount of time other guilds have, the progression race is becoming much more of a grindfest with the introduction of LFR farming, and the competition is getting more intense, which takes more time.

[jaricOrgana]

They lost a lot of their core raiders in the middle of T11 progression. Delia, Vallkr, Melaar, Maalakai, Segolene (GM), Mtx to name a few who were all very core members dating back to Sunwell and had a lot to do with the success they achieved since. Most, if not all, of those types are impossible to replace by recruiting and once you start to fall behind it gets more and more difficult to catch back up because people would rather raid with the new 'best' guild (Vodka) or the next one on the rise (Blood Legion).

The raid game has changed too and they are probably content with just killing stuff faster than most and not really pushing for first anymore since being competitive means stuff like taking weeks (not a day or two) off work, raiding Christmas, running 4-5+ full 25 man groups and even 'contracting' whatever classes are favorable for a fight from outside of the guild (see: Blood Legion mages on Spine). At this stage of the game and this stage of their lives, it's probably hard to justify making those sacrifices when the majority of them are in their mid to late twenties and have far more important commitments to keep up with outside of World of Warcraft.

They did it big when the game was at its peak though. Probably the only US guild to come close to doing what Death and Taxes was able to do against guilds on the world scene and not just the US one. Most other top US guilds don't really manage to put a lot of pressure on the EU guilds when it comes to big kills/end bosses and Premo did for about 3-4 tiers there.

[Mudkiper]

lfr ban maybe? but im not sure about this.
check ensidia too, world rank 70 or something like that

Ensidia are pretty much dying, probably won't even be a guild next expansion.

[salamala]

They lost a lot of their core raiders in the middle of T11 progression. Delia, Vallkr, Melaar, Maalakai, Segolene (GM), Mtx to name a few who were all very core members dating back to Sunwell and had a lot to do with the success they achieved since. Most, if not all, of those types are impossible to replace by recruiting and once you start to fall behind it gets more and more difficult to catch back up because people would rather raid with the new 'best' guild (Vodka) or the next one on the rise (Blood Legion).

The raid game has changed too and they are probably content with just killing stuff faster than most and not really pushing for first anymore since being competitive means stuff like taking weeks (not a day or two) off work, raiding Christmas, running 4-5+ full 25 man groups and even 'contracting' whatever classes are favorable for a fight from outside of the guild (see: Blood Legion mages on Spine). At this stage of the game and this stage of their lives, it's probably hard to justify making those sacrifices when the majority of them are in their mid to late twenties and have far more important commitments to keep up with outside of World of Warcraft.

They did it big when the game was at its peak though. Probably the only US guild to come close to doing what Death and Taxes was able to do against guilds on the world scene and not just the US one. Most other top US guilds don't really manage to put a lot of pressure on the EU guilds when it comes to big kills/end bosses and Premo did for about 3-4 tiers there.

Sounds to me like world firsts aren't really about skill at all, but timing and personal prioritization.

[Deleted]

...because people would rather raid with the new 'best' guild (Vodka) or the next one on the rise (Blood Legion).

Sounds odd that you're using those terms, considering vodka was beaten by both Blood Legion and Exodus in the US race.

I mean, nothing agains't vodka, they're more than likely to rack up world firsts but to the be considered best - and especially as you put it "new 'best'" - you'd have to be infront.

[underdogba]

Sounds to me like world firsts aren't really about skill at all, but timing and personal prioritization.

In all fairness, it's always been this way, it's just that in the past there wasn't as much freely-available information blogged and interviewed to inform this view as we see today.

[Deleted]

Probably the same as Envy, they've been 6/8 for almost 10 days not getting that kill, after that it took them less than a day to get madness down - talked with a friend who was in on both kills on and off during that day, it simply was spine being so tough.

[rowaasr13]

Sounds to me like world firsts aren't really about skill at all, but timing and personal prioritization.

Yes. You didn't knew before? Take that "Exorus" russian guild for example. They're not even first, but their requirement states that you are "required to raid 7 days a week while progressing and be able to throw away each and every other responsibility except raiding". Is that "skill"?

[jaricOrgana]

Sounds odd that you're using those terms, considering vodka was beaten by both Blood Legion and Exodus in the US race.

I mean, nothing agains't vodka, they're more than likely to rack up world firsts but to the be considered best - and especially as you put it "new 'best'" - you'd have to be infront.

Well you kind of took that out of context. Premo started slipping about halfway through T11 which is when half of their long, long term raiders called it quits. At that point, Vodka was definitely on the rise (and passed them eventually from Council -> Sinestra). Blood Legion was still behind along with Exodus. Premo went from being a day behind on Sinestra, to a week on Rag to now not really even being top 3 in the US. If I were to revise that statement and apply it to the most current tier, then yeah, you would be absolutely right.

They probably wouldn't admit as much because it would just sound like an excuse or wouldn't want to make it seem like the people they have picked up since then aren't good or something, but it's fairly telling that you lose half of your officers and whatnot and you can't really recover from that and it has shown each tier where they fall further and further behind.

[Arhippa]

Yes. You didn't knew before? Take that "Exorus" russian guild for example. They're not even first, but their requirement states that you are "required to raid 7 days a week while progressing and be able to throw away each and every other responsibility except raiding". Is that "skill"?

All the top guilds have very skilled players. Skill alone just isn't enough at this stage, you also need to put in the hours.

[Deleted]

You cannot always be on top, there will always be others that have a benchmark which is to beat you someday and they will eventually do it. And I've always thought about this when it comes to US top guilds that they are from all over the US with different time zones, it must just be horrible to have people from LA and NYC and raid alot which obviously will be hard for some people. In Europe we don't really have those problems since the time zones arent that much of a difference (Russia would be but 99% of the russian players play RU servers).

[fragga]

One of the main reasons for this is that spine is an awfully tuned fight and as others have said will end up taking a nerf very soon. The only way to get it down is stacking certain classes with certain gear and many top end guilds feel that having to recruit a load of people just to help them down one fight is asking a little too much, considering after the fight they wont need/use those players anymore.

[Jinto]

I doubt Premonition spent the time last tier to gear up a ton of alts. Even the guilds who did a lot of farming with multiple 25ms could barely come up with the comp for a Spine kill. Premonition also runs a fairly tight roster and doesn't seem to recruit for specific encounters. As for skill it is possible that they lost a lot of their best raiders. However it is hard to tell as they keep their logs private. They got some good players from other dead guilds in T11 however so it may not be as much of a factor.

[Paulosio]

Also don't forget how fast the content went down and the fact christmas was in the middle of it.... Not all guilds raided over christmas and losing a week or 2 when the whol raid was cleared in 2-3 weeks makes a big difference.

[thehordemage]

visit their website to find out op