1. #8281
    Scarab Lord
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokan View Post
    That's some mighty fine fallacious reasoning there. "You're only using credible evidence because it supports you."
    Lol, yea I don't know what he's getting at. Nate Silver predicted the 2010 house elections to the T.

  2. #8282
    Old God Grizzly Willy's Avatar
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    Can you disprove Nate Silver?

  3. #8283
    Quote Originally Posted by Grokan View Post
    Can you disprove 538?
    In 2 months I can.
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  4. #8284
    Old God Grizzly Willy's Avatar
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    I'm asking for you to do it now. Can't really make your bet after the winner is chosen.

  5. #8285
    Oblivion -- Nate Silver has provided his results, along with the methodology he used to get there.

    You don't like his results. That's clear. But in order to make an actual argument, you have to find a flaw in his methods.
    Quote Originally Posted by Gheld View Post
    If anybody is thinking of buying me a gift I would much rather they just donate that money to charity instead.
    chicken kiev

  6. #8286
    Quote Originally Posted by Grokan View Post
    Can you disprove Nate Silver?
    One thing he can't account for is the avalanche of SuperPac ads that Romney is going bury Obama under in the final weeks of the election in battleground states.

  7. #8287
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merkava View Post
    One thing he can't account for is the avalanche of SuperPac ads that Romney is going bury Obama under in the final weeks of the election in battleground states.
    Whatever you do, don't panic.

  8. #8288
    Is Obama toast? by Nate Silver.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...pagewanted=all

    Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 83%, Obama: 17%
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  9. #8289
    Quote Originally Posted by Daelak View Post
    Whatever you do, don't panic.
    What's that supposed to mean?

  10. #8290
    Old God Grizzly Willy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    Is Obama toast? by Nate Silver.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...pagewanted=all

    Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 83%, Obama: 17%
    From the last paragraph:

    It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.
    Notice how he didn't make a definitive prediction? Might not still falls in the realm of could.

    Not to mention that the prediction changes every time you get new data in. Part of why it was so high for Romney could be that people weren't aware of what the GOP was proposing. As the election cycle progressed, more of they GOP's goals became apparent, possibly driving people away.
    Last edited by Grizzly Willy; 2012-09-11 at 05:56 PM.

  11. #8291
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    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    Is Obama toast? by Nate Silver.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...pagewanted=all

    Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 83%, Obama: 17%
    From your source:

    THE BOTTOM LINE

    Average these four scenarios together and the probabilities come out to almost exactly 50-50. A month or two ago, when Perry and Romney appeared about equally likely to be the Republican nominee, it would therefore have been proper to think of the election as a toss-up.

    With Perry having slumped in the polls, however, and Romney the more likely nominee, the odds tilt slightly toward Obama joining the list of one-termers. It is early, and almost no matter what, the election will be a losable one for Republicans. But Obama’s position is tenuous enough that it might not be a winnable one for him.

    ---------- Post added 2012-09-11 at 05:56 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Merkava View Post
    What's that supposed to mean?
    Don't panic and freak out if they don't work.

  12. #8292
    He's either the all knowing guru or he isn't.

    I think the debates and late advertising have a lot of play on this election. You know... things that haven't occurred yet.

    I think it's Romney's election to win. Especially if he debates well.
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  13. #8293
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    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    He's either the all knowing guru or he isn't.

    I think the debates and late advertising have a lot of play on this election. You know... things that haven't occurred yet.

    I think it's Romney's election to win. Especially if he debates well.
    No, it's Obama's election to lose. He's an incumbent. Romney has just really done nothing to show himself to people when Obama has ads in the battleground states saying he's an out of touch vulture capitalist with bank accounts in the caymans.

  14. #8294
    Old God Grizzly Willy's Avatar
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    Which is why we can say that right now it is likely for Obama to win, given the way things are going. If things change, as they often do, then the prediction changes to take into account the new data.

  15. #8295
    Quote Originally Posted by oblivionx View Post
    Is Obama toast? by Nate Silver.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...pagewanted=all

    Probability of winning the popular vote: Romney: 83%, Obama: 17%
    I like how you posted the link to the article while taking a single line from it extremely out of context. The probability you quoted is under Silver's assumption of a flat 0% GDP growth. He also lists several other possible scenarios, a few of which are out of date since Perry is a non-factor now. At the end of the article, he even says that if you average out the different scenarios, it's pretty close to 50-50.

  16. #8296
    Quote Originally Posted by Daelak View Post
    Don't panic and freak out if they don't work.
    What a pathetic, trolly, ignorant, and childish response. Someone raises a point and your first instinct is to tell them not to panic and freak out if their prediction is wrong? Well, that's a response that I could have used at anytime to anyone of the Nate Silver followers. But I hardly see how that elevates the nature of our discourse.

  17. #8297
    I am Murloc! cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokan View Post
    Can you disprove Nate Silver?
    Past results are no indication of future ones.
    The less you know, the more you believe.


    Actually, Mr. Lennon, I CAN imagine a world with no hate, religion, war, or violence.
    I can also imagine attacking such a world, because they would never see it coming.

  18. #8298
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    Quote Originally Posted by Merkava View Post
    What a pathetic, trolly, ignorant, and childish response. Someone raises a point and your first instinct is to tell them not to panic and freak out if their prediction is wrong? Well, that's a response that I could have used at anytime to anyone of the Nate Silver followers. But I hardly see how that elevates the nature of our discourse.
    I am just saying, I don't know why the fuck Romney has waited so long to try to change the narrative. It's his campaign, and republican donors money he's screwing over.

  19. #8299
    So 1 minute of searching google and being admonished to "prove him wrong" got me to 50-50.

    Imagine if I actually spent some time on it.
    The most successful tyranny is not the one that uses force to assure uniformity but the one that removes the awareness of other possibilities.

  20. #8300
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    Linking something from November of 2011 which was hardly definite as proof that updated predictions are invalid isn't quite solid.

    However, you do have a point that there is still plenty of time between now and November to have things change.

    Laying your bets on Romney trouncing Obama in debates is not exactly your best bet though.

    Things that I think could swing the election (either way)
    1) major shifts in the economy.
    2) us getting involved in any sort of new military action (Iran or other)
    3) Romney coming out with definitive policy stances with enough detail to undermine Obama
    4) Romney coming out with definitive policy stances that are nonsense
    5) Major gaffes by either party. And we're talking major here, as in alienating a whole voting bloc.

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