1. #9941
    Brewmaster The Riddler's Avatar
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    http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....tion-away.html

    OK - Andy Sullivan is no Romney fan. He's about as far left as you get, and the Daily Beast is no right-wing website. In this article Sullivan is saying that the result of the debate is either Romney getting a huge boost, or Obama taking a huge hit (whichever way you prefer).

    My opinion is quite different. Sullivan is fretting that Obama lost tons of points as the result of just ONE debate. I don't think that's what happened at all. Every one of the polls taken before the debate had D+13 sample, or D+11 sample, or D+9 sample. My opinion is that Obama has been behind Romney for weeks, possibly months, and that the polling was ginned up to make it look like he was doing better than he really was.

    There is simply no way that the polls could swing that much that quickly. The only reason I can see for such radical swings is that the polling sucks and they need to change their idiotic sampling methodology to be more like what Rassmussen does. Republicans have a 13 point "enthusiasm gap" over Democrats, and they they keep polling as if Democrats had a +9 enthusiasm gap as if this was 2008. They really should be using the 2010 figures as the correction method if they want to be anywhere in the ballpark.

    In short - the polling sucks and I don't think any of them are anywhere close to being on target yet. These "6+ week out" polls are garbage.

    Oh - and a new Romney Infographic about Obama's Post-Debate habits... Priceless.

    http://www.gop.com/wp-content/upload...Communications
    Last edited by The Riddler; 2012-10-09 at 02:22 PM.

  2. #9942
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grokan View Post
    With boring versus unpredictable, I place my money on boring since it is less likely to stir controversy.
    Then you would have lost your money in the first presidential debate. Obama was boring, and Romney was unpredictable. Romney won.
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    It's called resistance / rebellion.
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    Also, one day the tables might turn.

  3. #9943
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....tion-away.html

    OK - Andy Sullivan is no Romney fan. He's about as far left as you get, and the Daily Beast is no right-wing website. In this article Sullivan is saying that the result of the debate is either Romney getting a huge boost, or Obama taking a huge hit (whichever way you prefer).

    My opinion is quite different. Sullivan is fretting that Obama lost tons of points as the result of just ONE debate. I don't think that's what happened at all. Every one of the polls taken before the debate had D+13 sample, or D+11 sample, or D+9 sample. My opinion is that Obama has been behind Romney for weeks, possibly months, and that the polling was ginned up to make it look like he was doing better than he really was.

    There is simply no way that the polls could swing that much that quickly. The only reason I can see for such radical swings is that the polling sucks and they need to change their idiotic sampling methodology to be more like what Rassmussen does. Republicans have a 13 point "enthusiasm gap" over Democrats, and they they keep polling as if Democrats had a +9 enthusiasm gap as if this was 2008. They really should be using the 2010 figures as the correction method if they want to be anywhere in the ballpark.

    In short - the polling sucks and I don't think any of them are anywhere close to being on target yet. These "6+ week out" polls are garbage.
    To say that all aggregate polling data has been falsified for weeks shows that you have a hostile view on how polling and trendlines even work.

    But considering your past posts, it actually does not surprise me that you are willing to go through mental hoops to prove your own cognitive dissonance.

    It is a close race in terms of the popular vote, however the electoral college count is clearly in Obama's favor.
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  4. #9944
    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post

    OK - Andy Sullivan is no Romney fan. He's about as far left as you get, and the Daily Beast is no right-wing website. In this article Sullivan is saying that the result of the debate is either Romney getting a huge boost, or Obama taking a huge hit (whichever way you prefer).
    Here is what pissed Democrats off to a millionth degree. Obama calls Romney on his tax plan "Governor for the last 18 months you have been campaigning on 5 trillion in tax cuts"

    Simple line that has video proof and is right on his website. LOWEST FUCKING RESULTS FROM INDEPENDENT VOTERS.

    I wish I could put into words how bad I hate independent voters. Obama literally cannot go after Romney because negativity is like super mean and that is just so rude, but Romney can get up there and make every bullshit lie under the sun and get praised for it.

    He are some facts if Romney gets elected:
    1. If Romney is elected you better suit up because we are going to war with Iran. If I were Iran I would strike Israel immediately if Romney wins. It is clear as fuck to anyone with half a brain that he has no plans on talking.

    2. ObamaCare is gone or atleast the key parts that Republicans can try and gut. So bam right away the donut hole comes back to Medicare-D. Anyone with a parent or grand parent on Medicare D should be fucking ashamed to be voting for Romney.

    3. Stem cell research...bam gone.

    4. Trade restrictions with China on solar panels gone. So expect a flood of crappy made Chinese solar panels with no warranties. Automatically every US solar manufacturer will go under

    5. Expect every regulation made to prevent another crash to be lifted. Speculative trading will shoot up

    6. War with Iran and arming Syrian rebels price per barrel easily shoots up past 150$ without a doubt

    7. If I were China and Russia and Romney went in solo into Iran and armed Syrian rebels I would pull back my money out of the US dollar causing our interest rates to borrow money to shoot up.

    8. His medicare plan is to shift the burden onto the states where most of them are already broke to begin with. Automatically job cuts and state program for the disabled and mentally ill get cut.

  5. #9945
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    polling was ginned up to make it look like he was doing better than he really was.
    I really need to invest in some tin foil stock. You folks are going to make sales skyrocket before the election.

    There is simply no way that the polls could swing that much that quickly.
    Three words for you -- "Low Information Voter." They exist in ever increasing numbers and their opinions sway with the latest breeze. They are easily manipulated by the press and by media so when the media rallied around Romney talking about how presidential he looked and how terrible Obama did you had a bunch of people go "oh, I should vote for him then!"

    In short - the polling sucks and I don't think any of them are anywhere close to being on target yet. These "6+ week out" polls are garbage.
    National polling is pointless as the president isn't chosen by popular vote. The state polls have value if you take the time to understand the polling methods, margin of errors, and potential biases. Oversampling dems doesn't matter if the results are weighted to remove that.

    And you don't believe polls can swing quickly yet you state that polls 6 weeks out are garbage.
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    It's called resistance / rebellion.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana Violence View Post
    Also, one day the tables might turn.

  6. #9946
    Old God Grizzly Willy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lenonis View Post
    Then you would have lost your money in the first presidential debate. Obama was boring, and Romney was unpredictable. Romney won.
    Not what I mean by unpredictable. Unpredictable as in saying stuff that people don't expect or understand. Romney wasn't Biden-unpredictable, and he didn't stir controversy.

    I see what you mean, though.

  7. #9947
    Brewmaster The Riddler's Avatar
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    I'm a professional statistician. Your assessment is based on ignorance. I have seen the way the sausage is made on the inside, and D+13 sampling corrections when the enthusiasm gap is R+13 is bologna. It isn't my fault that the recent polling is leaving you a sad panda. Cowboy up, pardner.

    But come on. Do you really think that one debate is enough to give Romney...
    +12 points among likely voters?
    +18 points among women voters?
    +8 points among middle class voters?
    +6 points among poor voters?
    +9 points in perceived "most honest candidate"?

    From one debate? Do you really think that? Or maybe - just MAYBE - could the problem really be that the previous polls sampled D+13 in an era of R+13 voter enthusiasm? Derp... :P

    And you don't believe polls can swing quickly yet you state that polls 6 weeks out are garbage.
    Yeah - I don't think the post-debate polls are any good yet either. This isn't without precedent. No one ever talks about the polls that places like Pew and Gallup did in the months leading UP to an election. Because historically speaking they have all been dismal failures and predicting the results. The only polls that end up getting real traction are the ones 1 week out, and even those are not particularly stellar in their performance history. Pre-election polls are bunkum.
    Oversampling dems doesn't matter if the results are weighted to remove that.
    And this is why non-professionals should never be allowed to talk about statistics. :P Your sample methodology ALWAYS matters.
    Last edited by The Riddler; 2012-10-09 at 02:34 PM.

  8. #9948
    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....tion-away.html

    OK - Andy Sullivan is no Romney fan. He's about as far left as you get, and the Daily Beast is no right-wing website.
    FYI, Sullivan considers himself a political conservative (his views on individual issues are both on the left and the right. He does hold a lot of views that conservatives also claim to have. Limited gov't, opposing welfare state, supporter of israel, was for the Iraq invasion, supports flat tax, etc). He actually supported Bush in 2000 but since then has been voting and been more supportive of Democrats because of how bad and how extreme the Republican Party has become.

    As for the polling, I was initially skeptical of polls leaning heavily Democrat in self-identified affiliation so i did some research on it. it turns out that the affiliation is correlational, not causational. Pollsters weren't getting strong pro-Obama numbers because they sampled Democrats heavily. Instead, more people were supportive of Obama because they were supportive of Obama, and thus more of them self-identified as Democrats. Polled party affiliation is not a fixed demographic. Poll the same group of people over a period of time and that number will shift on a correlational basis of the overall polling numbers.

  9. #9949
    The Insane Daelak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    I'm a professional statistician. Your assessment is based on ignorance. I have seen the way the sausage is made on the inside, and D+13 sampling corrections when the enthusiasm gap is R+13 is bologna. It isn't my fault that the recent polling is leaving you a sad panda. Cowboy up, pardner.

    But come on. Do you really think that one debate is enough to give Romney...
    +12 points among likely voters?
    +18 points among women voters?
    +8 points among middle class voters?
    +6 points among poor voters?
    +9 points in perceived "most honest candidate"?

    From one debate? Do you really think that? Or maybe - just MAYBE - could the problem really be that the previous polls sampled D+13 in an era of R+13 voter enthusiasm? Derp... :P
    It is from one poll, not the aggregate of all the data since the debate. Go to Pew's website and check for yourself. If you consider yourself a "professional" statistician, why are you leaning on one poll to justify your argument that every polling firm has been oversampling and falsifying data for the past two months?
    Quote Originally Posted by zenkai View Post
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  10. #9950
    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    I'm a professional statistician. Your assessment is based on ignorance. I have seen the way the sausage is made on the inside, and D+13 sampling corrections when the enthusiasm gap is R+13 is bologna. It isn't my fault that the recent polling is leaving you a sad panda. Cowboy up, pardner.

    But come on. Do you really think that one debate is enough to give Romney...
    +12 points among likely voters?
    +18 points among women voters?
    +8 points among middle class voters?
    +6 points among poor voters?
    +9 points in perceived "most honest candidate"?

    From one debate? Do you really think that? Or maybe - just MAYBE - could the problem really be that the previous polls sampled D+13 in an era of R+13 voter enthusiasm? Derp... :P
    If you looked at past polling results after debates, the answer to your questions would be "yes, easily".

    Nobody should pay too much attention to polls immediately after bigger political events--conventions, debates, etc. Bounces always happen and then usually things go back towards what they were before that event.

  11. #9951
    Titan Lenonis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    *snip*
    Yeah, so when you are willing to have a discussion that isn't dripping in condescension and patronization I'll be happy to re-engage with you. Also, work on your reading comprehension.

    ---------- Post added 2012-10-09 at 09:52 AM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by ptwonline View Post
    Nobody should pay too much attention to polls immediately after bigger political events--conventions, debates, etc. Bounces always happen and then usually things go back towards what they were before that event.
    Yeah, there's a spike then things settle down. Sometimes to where they were before, sometimes to a new baseline. Although the RNC didn't result in much of a bump, which was unusual.
    Forum badass alert:
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana Violence View Post
    It's called resistance / rebellion.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana Violence View Post
    Also, one day the tables might turn.

  12. #9952

  13. #9953
    The Undying
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    I'm a professional statistician. Your assessment is based on ignorance. I have seen the way the sausage is made on the inside, and D+13 sampling corrections when the enthusiasm gap is R+13 is bologna. It isn't my fault that the recent polling is leaving you a sad panda. Cowboy up, pardner.

    But come on. Do you really think that one debate is enough to give Romney...
    +12 points among likely voters?
    +18 points among women voters?
    +8 points among middle class voters?
    +6 points among poor voters?
    +9 points in perceived "most honest candidate"?

    From one debate? Do you really think that? Or maybe - just MAYBE - could the problem really be that the previous polls sampled D+13 in an era of R+13 voter enthusiasm? Derp... :P
    What does the last part refer to? The D+13 and R+13 - I don't know what those refer to or in what context they are being used. Could you explain for me?

  14. #9954
    The Insane Masark's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    What does the last part refer to? The D+13 and R+13 - I don't know what those refer to or in what context they are being used. Could you explain for me?
    D+13 or R+13 indicates that democrats or republicans are ahead by 13% in the poll (e.g. 56.5% to 43.5%)

  15. #9955
    Quote Originally Posted by The Riddler View Post
    http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast....tion-away.html

    OK - Andy Sullivan is no Romney fan. He's about as far left as you get, and the Daily Beast is no right-wing website. In this article Sullivan is saying that the result of the debate is either Romney getting a huge boost, or Obama taking a huge hit (whichever way you prefer).

    My opinion is quite different. Sullivan is fretting that Obama lost tons of points as the result of just ONE debate. I don't think that's what happened at all. Every one of the polls taken before the debate had D+13 sample, or D+11 sample, or D+9 sample. My opinion is that Obama has been behind Romney for weeks, possibly months, and that the polling was ginned up to make it look like he was doing better than he really was.

    There is simply no way that the polls could swing that much that quickly. The only reason I can see for such radical swings is that the polling sucks and they need to change their idiotic sampling methodology to be more like what Rassmussen does. Republicans have a 13 point "enthusiasm gap" over Democrats, and they they keep polling as if Democrats had a +9 enthusiasm gap as if this was 2008. They really should be using the 2010 figures as the correction method if they want to be anywhere in the ballpark.

    In short - the polling sucks and I don't think any of them are anywhere close to being on target yet. These "6+ week out" polls are garbage.

    Oh - and a new Romney Infographic about Obama's Post-Debate habits... Priceless.

    http://www.gop.com/wp-content/upload...Communications
    If you were actually a professional statistician you'd know that polls are weighted for sample make up.

  16. #9956
    The Undying
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    Quote Originally Posted by Masark View Post
    D+13 or R+13 indicates that democrats or republicans are ahead by 13% in the poll (e.g. 56.5% to 43.5%)
    Gotcha. What does "enthusiasm gap" refer to then? Or is Riddler just blowing smoke?

  17. #9957
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Gotcha. What does "enthusiasm gap" refer to then? Or is Riddler just blowing smoke?
    Its literally how excited registered partisans are to vote for their side.

  18. #9958
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Gotcha. What does "enthusiasm gap" refer to then? Or is Riddler just blowing smoke?
    They ask you how enthusiastic you are about the choice you made on a scale. What Riddler is saying, is that if the enthusiasm was measured properly, Romney would be winning. He is saying that people like me who will say they are the least enthusiastic to be voting for Obama, should count as less than a person who is extremley enthusiastic for voting against Obama, even if that's Romney.

  19. #9959
    Herald of the Titans Beavis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    What does the last part refer to? The D+13 and R+13 - I don't know what those refer to or in what context they are being used. Could you explain for me?
    The P +X describes a sampling methodology to simulate turnout. A D+13 sample supposes that Democrats would have a 13% turnout advantage over Republicans, so registered Democrats are sampled at a higher rate than registered Republicans.

    I'm loathe to agree with the Riddler, but it's kind of dicey methodologically. If there's strong reason to believe that a given party will have a turnout advantage in line with the sampling weight, then a P +X sample will probably mirror the population. On the other hand, if there's not a strong reason to believe in a turnout advantage, then the pollster is just distorting the sample.
    Last edited by Beavis; 2012-10-09 at 05:43 PM.
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  20. #9960
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beavis View Post
    The P +X describes a sampling methodology to simulate turnout. A D+13 sample supposes that Democrats would have a 13% turnout advantage over Republicans, so registered Democrats are sampled at a higher rate than registered Republicans.

    I'm loathe to agree with the Riddler, but it's kind of dicey methodologically.
    I guess I was wrong.

    Is he saying that only the demographics that Obama leads by over 13 points are actually ones he is winning and the rest are result of wrong turn around differential applied?

    Does this mean Romney has 13% of the African American vote?
    Last edited by Felya; 2012-10-09 at 05:47 PM.

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