U.S. Presidential race - Democrat Discussion

[Beavis]

I guess I was wrong.

Is he saying that only the demographics that Obama leads by over 13 points are actually ones he is winning and the rest are result of wrong turn around differential applied?

Yeah, that's pretty much his argument. I don't agree with that, however. Rasmussen's polls, which exclude cell phone numbers and thus probably undersample Democrat leaning voters, tend to paint a picture of a pretty tight race. The aggregate polls on RCP are probably pretty close to the population dynamics.

Does this mean Romney has 13% of the African American vote?

I'm not sure, I haven't really looked at the data. But, African American voters are overwhelmingly Democrat, so I'd be surprised if he had that much.

[Grizzly Willy]

It's about as bad as the people saying that Obama is out to destroy America. It's sensationalistic doomsaying.

[smrund]

The list of "facts" that aren't facts.

To be fair he said "facts if", which even from my cursory glance of just waking up means "here's some stuff I think will happen if Romney wins".

[Grizzly Willy]

"Facts if" still means "facts" and not "opinions".

[Diurdi]

Romney just took the lead among likely voters according to gallup poll. Intrade numbers crashed Obama's chance of winning to under 60%.

[Wells]

"Facts if" still means "facts" and not "opinions".

When that is followed with a list of what are clearly predictions its kind of silly to get hung up on it.

But going down the list theres:

1) Iran. This is dependent greatly on future events but its not terribly unreasonable to expect Romney would take us to military action there if the situation arises.
2) Obamacare gutting. Well yeah.
3) Stem Cell research has traditionally not done well under the GOP as they try to appease social conservatives with more fervor than reason.
4) Not sure about this one.
5) The GOP has been pretty open about their dislike of stuff like Dodd Frank. Romney says repeal and replace but I suspect its going to be "repeal and replace at a date to be determined"
6) Assuming another war in the middle east gas prices would go up.
7) Mostly crazy talk, though you can expect increased tension with those countries if we go to war with Iran.
8) I'll have to read more about his plan.


But all in all? Not exactly crazy town stuff.

[ptwonline]

A lot of his predictions are fairly reasonable.

Honestly, how can anyone predict ANYTHING Romney will do when he's been on multiple sides of almost every issue? The only thing I'm pretty sure of is that he'll cut the income tax rate for the wealthy, and the Estate tax and Capital Gains taxes if he can. Anything else is a total mystery.

[Wells]

I think the safe money is that he'll just play the party line.

[ptwonline]

I think the safe money is that he'll just play the party line.

If he does even a quarter of the things his party wants...jeebus.

He's shifting hard to the middle, people who don't know better will vote for him, and the US could end up with another GWB in terms of economic and foreign policy, but worse on social policy.

[Felya420]

"Facts if" still means "facts" and not "opinions".

So, it is semantics and not what he actually said. Lame....

---------- Post added 2012-10-09 at 09:26 PM ----------

If he does even a quarter of the things his party wants...jeebus.

He's shifting hard to the middle, people who don't better will vote for him, and the US could end up with another GWB in terms of economic and foreign policy, but worse on social policy.

Bush foreign policy? Can we have a different world power start a war before we start another one.

[Didactic]

Romney just took the lead among likely voters according to gallup poll. Intrade numbers crashed Obama's chance of winning to under 60%.

Just like they predicted Dewey was going to win over Truman?

[Grizzly Willy]

I'm not sure how I'm putting words in his mouth.

He are some facts if Romney gets elected:

Implying that what he's saying is factually correct and provable.

But I'm wrong, so I'll stop.

[Felya420]

I'm not sure, I haven't really looked at the data. But, African American voters are overwhelmingly Democrat, so I'd be surprised if he had that much.

It was a joke implying Romney is polling at 0, making it 13% if we add the 13% Riddler said.

---------- Post added 2012-10-09 at 09:33 PM ----------

I'm not sure how I'm putting words in his mouth.

Implying that what he's saying is factually correct and provable.

But I'm wrong I, so I'll stop.

He did say fact, but everything that followed was opinion. It's not puting words in his mouth, it's focusing on semantics of how the correct meaning is opinion. Instead of what his opinion actually is. Still, lame...

[Grizzly Willy]

Apologies for being lame then.

[Bobdoletoo]

Romney just took the lead among likely voters according to gallup poll. Intrade numbers crashed Obama's chance of winning to under 60%.

What does intrade have to do with anything?

Is that worse then Big Bird telling obama to stop using him in campaign ads?

[Wells]

Intrade, like any trading market, behaves like a chicken coop with a fox in it.

[Bobdoletoo]

Intrade, like any trading market, behaves like a chicken coop with a fox in it.

Isn't intrade an illegal off shore gambling site?

[Erenax]

The new big bird campaign video on youtube is HILARIOUS

Apparently Big Bird didn't find it funny.

[Grizzly Willy]

If Sesame Workshop wants their content to be left out of the political sphere, the Obama campaign should stop using them. I find it to be poor practice that they didn't get permission before hand.

[Bobdoletoo]

If Sesame Workshop wants their content to be left out of the political sphere, the Obama campaign should stop using them. I find it to be poor practice that they didn't get permission before hand.

You could say, they shot first, then aimed.

I did get an image of elmo talking to Axelrod saying " This cease and desist has been brought to you by the letters F and U."