Is WoW 'losing' more players than normal?

[clampy]

I just had a though that I figured warranted a discussion and I wanted to hear you opinions/thoughts on the subject.

Blizzard have always been open about having good turn around; lots of people leaving but lots of new players starting as well. People seem to think that the losses of active subscriptions is based on the fact that more people are quitting than usual. While that is completely logical, is it correct? Blizzard seem pretty unfazed that their numbers are down and they seem to be gearing towards getting more new players to join instead of keeping the old. Seeing as they can see the real numbers and we can't, I get the impression that they aren't losing more players than normal - but there aren't as many new players joining.

Think about it. When WoW was in its prime it didn't have a lot of competition. If someone wanted to play an MMO they really only had 1 major choice - so it was clear where that players was going to go to. Nowadays there are plenty of MMOs to choose from, and most of them at a glance are visually more appealing. Not only that, other genres seem to have incorporated some of the 'MMO' style into their multilayer games so some people might not even see a reason to go on an MMO for the social side as you can get that else where (Games like COD and BF3 where there is an aspect of RPG along with a huge social side which we are normally used to with MMO games).

So I ask you guys,
Do you think WoW is losing more players than normal? Or has the stream of new players slowed down?

[Duridi]

I honestly do not know, but they are certainly not bringing in new players where they are losing old.

They've lost a lot from my group, but we're old and grumpy.

I didn't really add anything to the discussion? Did I?

[dokhidamo]

Last quarter I would say it's no huge surprise. But the last year is a major surprise. Up until last year WoW was in near constant growth, then it's zapped for nearly 1/10th of its playerbase.

However, if MoP really is on track for a late 2012 launch (as it seems now), then expect this year to be as bad or worse than last year.

[Hanto]

WoW is in that time in its expansion where things are getting boring and people unsub. Not sure about BC, but it certainly happened in Wrath and not surprised it's happening now. The more players there are to play, the more there are that will eventually tire and quit and/or take a break. Just wait for the next expansion, there will probably be a surge of new or reactivated accounts (as always).

[Epiphanes]

This topic has been beaten to death. Who cares? If you hold shares or other investment options with Activision-Blizzard, then I'd advise you to take a look at their current portfolio and all of the analytical data concerning revenue generating sales, including but not limited to World of Warcraft subscriptions and fee-for-service options relating to it.

[Kegler]

The game is 7 years old and still have 10 million subs.

What is the issue?

[dokhidamo]

The game is 7 years old and still have 10 million subs.

What is the issue?

We'll see in a year....

That's not a threat, that's me saying Star Wars Galaxies died at age 8, let's see what WoW is in a year and judge success based on that.

[Yggdrasil]

When WoW was in its 'prime' competition did exists. It just got stomped out within the first moments of its life. I think the reverse is really the truth. The small decline in WoW has opened up the path for other companies to squeeze into. So is WoW losing more players then 'normal'? Well pretty much up to Cata the subs were always rising minus a few dips around the end of expansions -- other wise known as that 6-12 month expansion lag at each ones end. So considering that you have to say, yes WoW is losing more people then 'normal'. But it isn't a devastating loss really. More like the fact of it just showing its age and a very hit or miss Chinese subscription model that makes it very easy to be around for new content and easily gone when things slow down so up and down spikes will exist. The facts are simple a lot of people are attracted to the newer graphics and it seems like game play is starting to get caught up too. Top that off with WoW starting to show its age -- and really just relying on its damn smooth game play plus the Blizzard stamp and support (even if it might not be the 'same old blizz' anymore) to retain what it has. Hopefully the next expansion will boost interest again because as Cata showed an expansion can sour a game the opposite I believe is very true as well -- it could really turn around.

So yes.. losing more then normal. But I wouldn't call it bleeding anymore (when it was 800k it was bleeding) just maturing in a later stage of its life.

[ProfessorTjc]

We'll see in a year....

That's not a threat, that's me saying Star Wars Galaxies died at age 8, let's see what WoW is in a year and judge success based on that.

Even if it drops 5 million subs it's still the MMO that has the most subs...

[Machriren]

I actually think the decline has come to a standstill..

Ive had so may people tell me not to play because its shit. I cant Imagine people starting a shit game when there are so many options.

I've been playing for 3-4 years now

[shewkoi]

Last quarter I would say it's no huge surprise. But the last year is a major surprise. Up until last year WoW was in near constant growth, then it's zapped for nearly 1/10th of its playerbase.

However, if MoP really is on track for a late 2012 launch (as it seems now), then expect this year to be as bad or worse than last year.

1.8 million taken away from 12 million is actually quite a bit more than 'nearly 1/10th'. it's actually 3/20ths, or 15%.

[clampy]

This topic has been beaten to death. Who cares? If you hold shares or other investment options with Activision-Blizzard, then I'd advise you to take a look at their current portfolio and all of the analytical data concerning revenue generating sales, including but not limited to World of Warcraft subscriptions and fee-for-service options relating to it.

Well this topic is more related to where new players are going instead of "how crap WoW is" (thus being the reason of lost subs). Personally I think WoW is doing really well as a game. Everything seems balanced and complete but numbers are down. I can't help but think its because new players are just not bothering with WoW and the loss of members per month isn't necessarily any higher than normal.

Lets say WoW has lost 80k subs a month since Burning Crusade (Speculation ofc), but the number of incoming players has always been higher.
New games come out, higher competition, less of a reason to go to WoW.
During the end of WotLK the number of incoming players drops substantially but the 80k losses per month doesn't change.

WoW is one of those games where lots of people don't want to just pick up and leave due to time invested and attachment to their accounts. It makes more sense that the amount of people joining the game would slow down instead of more people leaving. If the MMO poll on the front page is anything to go by, there are still lots of vanilla players hanging around which would imply that the 'time invested' point isn't moot and still applies today.

[HBpapa]

Meh, who cares...? Most people I know don't play or continue their sub till the end of an expac. Once they finish the bad guy of the expac they are out till the next one. Other people I know just had their lives change over the last seven years and are leaving WOW for IRL...not for another MMO.

I will add that every time I've leveled an alt through WoW I always meet new players; including on my Shammy I am currently leveling. And I am not talking about once in a blue moon between 1 and 85...I meet new people every couple of zones (Alliance side on Proudmoore).

[Rorcanna]

Who cares?

I do not anxt about how many people went to see the movie that I happened to watch and like, I do not anxt over how many people eat at McDonald's or don't eat there just because I enjoy myself one of their burgers once in a while. I certainly do not anxt about wether or not the games I play are losing or gaining players as long as I enjoy myself and the game is still around.

Inb4 "Lol u shud worry cause peeps leaving means game is dying"...well that's not entirely the case either, is it? A game having 10 million active accounts in its 7 year will not drop dead the next. It's just common sense. If this game is gone in 5 years, then so'll be it. I'm sure Blizzard won't allow it to go down without wrapping it up and when that happens, there will be other games. I don't see why people get their knickers in a bunch over WoW when tons of games each day grow old, lose playerbase and simply are not as popular anymore. WoW's got 10 million players still, we're not talking 2 million players and a 1.8 million player loss, are we now?

[Desparatus]

I wouldn't be surprised, WoW is getting old.

[Necrolepsy]

Even if it drops 5 million subs it's still the MMO that has the most subs...

Actually if we use Western Figures and purely exclude china, if it loses 2 million subs, SWTOR will over take it as the #1 mmo.

[dokhidamo]

Actually if we use Western Figures and purely exclude china, if it loses 2 million subs, SWTOR will over take it as the #1 mmo.

If ToR can hold onto what it has now (about 1.7 mil) then it may only be 1 million WoW has to lose.

[Lemons]

I think this is a large downswing, but when Mists launches we're going to see a huge flood of subs coming back. The expansion gets a bad rap, but it's an expansion, and expansions always bump subs.

Will it be enough to get back to 12 million? Who knows. I think it will be, but that also depends on how many subs were lost to SWTOR, which we won't know until the next earnings call.

That's not a threat, that's me saying Star Wars Galaxies died at age 8, let's see what WoW is in a year and judge success based on that.

The very Idea that WoW could go from 10 million subs to a number so low that it is no longer profitable in a single year is laughable.

[Cipero]

I think Blizzard is a very smart company. That being said, the drops have been more than 'normal' if we compare them to previous expansions. Cata was definitely not the 'hit' we all thought it needed. But what I've been thinking, and this is just my own opinion, is that they are setting up the foundation for WoW to grow for the next several years. With Cata they went back and focused a lot of time and resources on re-mapping the entire world of Azeroth as we know it. With MoP, I believe that with the introduction (or re-introduction) of the Panderans along with many new creatures, and races, and factions they are paving the way for brand new story lines and future expansions. I am speculating but truly believe that the next step in the Blizzard think tank is after (or during) MoP they are going to work on the graphics of the game and the character models (because even tho we love them they are kind of old school in an ever growing genre).

Anyway...I'm losing focus, my a.d.d is horrible, but in short I think this decline will turn around because I have faith in Blizzard's devotion to WoW, and along with their great staff of dev's, we should be in for a treat.

[Kaneiac]

I think Blizzard is a very smart company. That being said, the drops have been more than 'normal' if we compare them to previous expansions. Cata was definitely not the 'hit' we all thought it needed. But what I've been thinking, and this is just my own opinion, is that they are setting up the foundation for WoW to grow for the next several years. With Cata they went back and focused a lot of time and resources on re-mapping the entire world of Azeroth as we know it. With MoP, I believe that with the introduction (or re-introduction) of the Panderans along with many new creatures, and races, and factions they are paving the way for brand new story lines and future expansions. I am speculating but truly believe that the next step in the Blizzard think tank is after (or during) MoP they are going to work on the graphics of the game and the character models (because even tho we love them they are kind of old school in an ever growing genre).

Anyway...I'm losing focus, my a.d.d is horrible, but in short I think this decline will turn around because I have faith in Blizzard's devotion to WoW, and along with their great staff of dev's, we should be in for a treat.

I told myself I'd be in for a treat with Cataclysm, too, so I'm definitely less than optimistic.

Don't get me wrong, I loved Cata, it was fine. But I think I hyped myself up TOO much.

Let's hope now that they don't have to focus on redoing the entire goddamn world over again, they can give us creative end-game solutions. Here's hoping scenarios and stuff turn out alright.