It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for the MMR system to punish a single individual for winning a couple of games. Not even remotely. People have bad games, and sometimes people try out heroes they have no idea how to play. I'd say they're all probably around your rating every time.
As long as you don't exclusively play in imbalanced stacks (either with high skill disparity or extreme tryharding), your winrate being near 50% is just a sign that the system is working. It doesn't need to enforce anything and I very much doubt the system has a feature of "oh looks like you won a few games, gonna put you into an impossible game next", win/loss streaks are just a natural occurrence. If your queue lasts for well over 4 minutes, you can expect the game to possibly be unbalanced because the matchmaking range is way off. I sat in queue for 8 or 9 minutes a few days ago and this was the result, had to play against the worst mid player I've seen in a while and it wasn't pretty.
What the system seems to do is put lower-skilled players together with higher-skilled, aka to balance it. Problem is, it becomes a single player dota game. Either you are strong enough to alone carry your team (= game is not balanced), or you get drowned by the feeders & low skilled people (again, game not balanced). Low people should play with low, high with high, not mix and match.
---------- Post added 2013-05-01 at 07:40 PM ----------
One of my friends couldn't get to 1900 in HoN (pre-compression) because he was stuck in the 1800-trench. He couldn't get higher because the people on his team were always dragging him down. It doesn't really work that way.
---------- Post added 2013-05-01 at 09:34 PM ----------
Fun fact? the other team was even worse. If the other team was ANY good, they would have wiped the floor with us, hard. As it is, we survived for 40+ minutes AND won the game. The point of this "rant" is that after being on a winning stream i came up to a 1) bad team (the guys who left and were horrible), and 2) bad opponent team. How is that balanced?
edit: Elder Titan ingame
TC possibly my favorite hero. Take notes, kids.
---------- Post added 2013-05-02 at 06:07 AM ----------
Everytime I play Axe I miss double aegis build, hate current pansy caster style. Axe is supposed to be drawing creep aggro and harassing with helix, not stand behind creeps and cast some puny battle hunger
Recent tier list was posted, purely ranking heroes by how often they appeared in the past 428 tournament games (Batrider was the only hero that appeared in every single game.)
Spurred on a discussion about Viper, and specifically why he wasn't used much (only seen once in 428 games, IIRC.)
Seems to me like he'd fare well in the aggressive style of game used currently, probably as a solo mid or farming carry in an aggressive trilane. Nethertoxin damage scales very well in the early game and applies half to towers, giving him early game relevance. His orb is a potent slow and has good range (in addition to being an orb, meaning towers and creeps ignore him), making it good for setting up stuns (lesh/lina stun, etc) and enabling chasing, as well as discouraging enemy harassment.
Viper Strike is immensely powerful combined with Nethertoxin; the big dot rapidly lowers enemy HP, allowing Viper's autohits to deal increasingly more damage. It's also a very powerful slow; unless you can get immediate TP support, getting hit with Viper Strike in the first 15-20 minutes of the game means you are going to die.
It seems like you'd want to get a quick level 6 on Viper and then begin playing very aggressively, pushing towers. Nethertoxin makes Viper hit towers pretty hard, and the strength of his orb and Viper Strike combined with teammates means you have to fully commit if you want to fight his team - the immense slows and dots mean that disengaging probably won't work. Urn works really really well on him, giving him another fatal dot as well as the heal and HP.
Late game relevance would be obtained through tanky items (Pipe, Shiva, etc) and scepter. Scepter lasts 5 seconds, is an 80% move/attack slow that ignores BKB, and can be cast at 950 range, and has 12 sec cooldown. This means that Viper Strike is available multiple times in a fight, is available for every fight, and Viper can essentially nullify a late-game BKB entirely (pop BKB, viper strike'd, you do virtually no damage for as long as the BKB lasts.) His orb is 40% slow for whenever BKB isn't up, and you could combo an item like Shiva for even more slowing power (Viper Strike + Shiva aura would be equal to a max level Bambi passive.)
He's a little limited in laning - again, really the only options (if you aren't running a duo lane) are mid solo or aggressive tri. He's a bit squishy and very slow at 285 speed, which means he'll be very easy to gank if he's mid. The horseshit that is bottlecrow also means that he won't necessarily win mid, though even with bottlecrow a lot of heroes won't be able to do much besides trade farm with him. I'd expect he'd win mid against a lot of heroes if bottlecrow were removed, fat chance of that happening though.
He also lacks any real disable; his slows mean a carry isn't going to do much autoattacking but he can't prevent someone from casting spells or using items. Can always get sheepstick on him for one, but I actually really think Shiva is an amazing item on him, and I don't think he farms well enough to get both. I guess that's another big weakness - he sucks at farming. I think you'd have to get most of your gold from towers and kills and hope that's enough to keep you going until your carry comes online and you can transition into your slow-bot role with a scepter.
That said, it seems like he'd fit into the current meta pretty well. I'm kind of surprised he hasn't been picked more often.