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  1. #21
    Scarab Lord Frozen Death Knight's Avatar
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    Only 5 million over a whole freaking year? Blizzard's latest games have sold more than that in the first year, so how the heck can this even be remotely correct?

  2. #22
    Dreadlord Oogzy's Avatar
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    They'll most likely sell more than 5 million. There's also the fact that every AP holder gets it for free, though I'm unsure if those count towards the total. I'll bet it passes 5m far before the end of the year.

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  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Strah View Post
    W
    Hell, Skyrim sold 11 mil copies in 5 months. Dat Skyrim, which almost every wow player also knew about, that skyrim, the "will be 2012 GOTY".
    And you know how many skyrim copies were sold @ PC? 2 million.


    I'm not saying the analysts are right, i'm just saying that your average Joe is far off from the real numbers. 5-10 million on the first day? I mean, REALLY?
    You can not compare a slow paced game like any of the elder scroll series to the hack and slash style of diablo. Not only is the gameplay more addictive and faster paced the name resonates with more people.

    It won't sell 5-10mil the first day but I would expect it to do 5 million in the first month. This is the biggest pc exclusive title released in quite some time. I wouldn't be surprised if it sold double that(in the first month) but it's not something I would bet on lol.

    I think with 1 million AP'rs that had to sign a 160.00 CONTRACT for WoW (notorious for people quitting and coming back) it's a very good indication that this game is going to be the best selling PC game of the year and maybe of the last 10 years (exluding WoW Expacs and Sims but it may even beat them out)
    Last edited by Riptide; 2012-04-03 at 09:19 PM.

  4. #24
    Lmao at 5 million, they obviously have no clue. All relevant numbers indicate way more sold copies than that, I'd be surprised if its less than 8-10 million in the first year.

  5. #25
    I think the name alone will give plenty of people reason enough to buy it. Look at the Modern Warfare games

  6. #26
    The Lightbringer shadowkras's Avatar
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    I already predicted over 9M copies. And i might be a little off...
    People take stupidity to a whole new level when they sit in front of a computer.

    www.poepra2.com.br Um blog para quem prefere jogos multiplayer.

  7. #27
    15 millions first year, that's my bet (including annual pass here)

  8. #28
    The same guy predicted 4 million copies for SW TOR.

    LOL. The man has no clue at all...

    I know I was ALWAYS spot on with every new MMORPG coming out in these last 7 years.

    My prediction for SW TOR was 2.2 to 2.5 M in the first months of launch and 60% - 40% and 20% retention after 2 - 4 - 6+ months time.

    I think I was spot on with that (despite the lies of EA about "majority" and "near" numbers).

    I made the same correct prediction with WAR (800K at launch), AOC (700K at launch) and Rift (500K at launch).

    So what is my prediction for Diablo 3? : Somewhere around 3 M at launch and probably 4M max after 2 months. Not more because it is a PC only game and the first 6 months it will not launch on consoles.


    After having played the Beta recently I am not sure at all about its retention rate. My feeling says the game will quickly lose players because of the new MOP expansion and the RMAH will be not very successful. I even think Blizzard KNOWS it by now.

    So FEW beta testers keep playing: always a bad sign.

  9. #29
    High Overlord Melancolie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magemaer View Post
    15 millions first year, that's my bet (including annual pass here)
    I second that...

  10. #30
    It can't sale less than ME3 for example. In fact it will sell for much more. So 5M is pretty fail number.
    The Mists of Pandaria coming on September 25

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Ethas View Post
    It can't sale less than ME3 for example. In fact it will sell for much more. So 5M is pretty fail number.
    You can't compare a multi platform game with a PC only game.

    ME 3 only SOLD 400K copies on the PC. So if Diablo 3 would sell 4 M copies (about the maximum) it would mean Diablo 3 out sold ME3 by a factor of ... 10 ...

  12. #32
    The Patient Jetstream's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magemaer View Post
    15 millions first year, that's my bet (including annual pass here)

    Eh heh, no.

    No.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...PC_video_games

    That's only slightly less than what the Sims has sold EVER.

    Note that Diablo 2 has sold 4 million to date. StarCraft, since launch, is up to 11 million.

    Games REALLY don't sell THAT well. They make a load of money but we're not talking tens of millions of sales. Only the most popular games EVER have sold that much. Like SUper Mario Brothers 3, the Sims, etc.

    What I'm saying, really, is that five million copies is really, really good. Amazing even. if they seriously do that in a single year, that's astonishing and they should be very happy.

    Edit: Researching this further, it's interesting. Console games sell really well with relation to PC games...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ng_video_games

    But this? This is disgusting.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ii_video_games

    Apparently if you want your game to hit the largest market, put it on the Wii. Jesus. Those ship numbers are obscene.
    Last edited by Jetstream; 2012-04-06 at 06:37 PM.

  13. #33
    The Lightbringer Beazy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jetstream View Post
    Eh heh, no.

    No.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...PC_video_games

    That's only slightly less than what the Sims has sold EVER.

    Note that Diablo 2 has sold 4 million to date. StarCraft, since launch, is up to 11 million.

    Games REALLY don't sell THAT well. They make a load of money but we're not talking tens of millions of sales. Only the most popular games EVER have sold that much. Like SUper Mario Brothers 3, the Sims, etc.

    What I'm saying, really, is that five million copies is really, really good. Amazing even. if they seriously do that in a single year, that's astonishing and they should be very happy.

    Edit: Researching this further, it's interesting. Console games sell really well with relation to PC games...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ng_video_games

    But this? This is disgusting.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ii_video_games

    Apparently if you want your game to hit the largest market, put it on the Wii. Jesus. Those ship numbers are obscene.
    If you look at some of those flagship games, they did sell in the tens of millions of copies. I think D3 will be that game for Blizzard. 5 million is just too low for the most anticipated PC game of all time. Not when they have a "Advertisement Base" of over 12 million people who have actually spent money on blizzard games and no doubt have a BNet account/email. These people will rcv a sales emails and I would be willing to bet, 90% of them bite.

    I may be a little too optimistic, but I would not be suprised to see 2 million sales MINUS AP promo the first night of release, and honestly it could be 3 million. Remember, the game is launching in multiple regions at the same time. Just think about Korea, they eat up ANYTHING with a Blizzard logo on it. Your looking, at the bare minimum, 1 million sales in Korea alone. Who knows about Russia, China, and the UK.

    Also, take into account that Blizzard makes games that run great on computers that are many years old. That fact alone will open the door to even MORE PC users globally (and Mac).

    I guess we have to wait and see, because its any ones guess at this moment. 5 more weeks brothers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Last edited by Beazy; 2012-04-06 at 09:32 PM.

  14. #34
    High Overlord
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    People who think that a PC exclusive RPG will hit more than 5 mil in a year seriously need to reconnect to reality. Hell even 5 mill is overly optimistic. D2 never sold that much and it was out for more than 11 years.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by pltr View Post
    People who think that a PC exclusive RPG will hit more than 5 mil in a year seriously need to reconnect to reality. Hell even 5 mill is overly optimistic. D2 never sold that much and it was out for more than 11 years.
    ^Hit the nail on the head.

    PC gaming has mostly trended towards social gaming such as facebook games and mmo's. Business wise, blizzard really should've gone multi platform with D3 from the get go. The control scheme for Isometric action RPGs translates to consoles very easily and the market for the game would almost treble (WII is terrible).
    Quote Originally Posted by Zillionhz View Post
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  16. #36
    So wait, they predicted a million annual passes essentially...which means that a million people are getting into MoP beta via pass. OVER HALFWAY THROUGH THAT NUMBER AND I STILL AM NOT IN BETA?!?!? /RAAAAAAAGE

    side note/back on topic - 5 Million is a lot for a pc sale title, and I'm sure that we'll see that, but I wonder how they prescribe essentially the arbitrary number of 1 million (the difference between total diablo II sales and predicted sales on d3) to people who have never played the series before. That number seems really low considering you have a very large Blizzard fan base that has been hyper-exposed to this particular game, which is also more in line with WoW-esque fantasy style than the SC2 universe (which is @ like what 3mil copies?) as well as it having a game style more in line with WoW than a rts. I'm no market guy, but it just seems strange to me.
    Last edited by Ryquis; 2012-04-07 at 10:22 AM.

  17. #37
    The Patient Jetstream's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beazy View Post
    If you look at some of those flagship games, they did sell in the tens of millions of copies. I think D3 will be that game for Blizzard. 5 million is just too low for the most anticipated PC game of all time. Not when they have a "Advertisement Base" of over 12 million people who have actually spent money on blizzard games and no doubt have a BNet account/email. These people will rcv a sales emails and I would be willing to bet, 90% of them bite.

    I may be a little too optimistic, but I would not be suprised to see 2 million sales MINUS AP promo the first night of release, and honestly it could be 3 million. Remember, the game is launching in multiple regions at the same time. Just think about Korea, they eat up ANYTHING with a Blizzard logo on it. Your looking, at the bare minimum, 1 million sales in Korea alone. Who knows about Russia, China, and the UK.

    Also, take into account that Blizzard makes games that run great on computers that are many years old. That fact alone will open the door to even MORE PC users globally (and Mac).

    I guess we have to wait and see, because its any ones guess at this moment. 5 more weeks brothers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    You have to remember to look at the PC games. Console games have much greater market penetration than PC games do in general. I think Diablo 3 MIGHT (might!) be a record breaker. It might sell a million or two in the first week or two, yes. Five million in the first year could happen. It might even be a record setting seller over all and sell 15-20 million copies over the course of its LIFE.

    Fifteen million in a year? No chance. Not 'til they get a console release. In that moment their sales will go up incredibly.

    Do keep in mind, however, that this is an M-rated game. There is a loss of market penetration from that too. I think people underestimate the number of sales that come from the kiddies having their parents buy it for them.
    Last edited by Jetstream; 2012-04-07 at 07:46 PM.

  18. #38
    Dreadlord fartman69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beazy View Post
    5 Mill in the first year? I would put that number close to 10. Remember D3 is releasing in multiple regions, not just USA at the same time.

    StarCraft 2 sold about 5 and its not nearly as popular as the Diablo IP. Not by a long shot.
    Starcraft is a VERY popular IP in korea probably more so then any IP in the world.

  19. #39
    The Patient Jetstream's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beazy View Post
    If you look at some of those flagship games, they did sell in the tens of millions of copies. I think D3 will be that game for Blizzard. 5 million is just too low for the most anticipated PC game of all time. Not when they have a "Advertisement Base" of over 12 million people who have actually spent money on blizzard games and no doubt have a BNet account/email. These people will rcv a sales emails and I would be willing to bet, 90% of them bite.

    I may be a little too optimistic, but I would not be suprised to see 2 million sales MINUS AP promo the first night of release, and honestly it could be 3 million. Remember, the game is launching in multiple regions at the same time. Just think about Korea, they eat up ANYTHING with a Blizzard logo on it. Your looking, at the bare minimum, 1 million sales in Korea alone. Who knows about Russia, China, and the UK.

    Also, take into account that Blizzard makes games that run great on computers that are many years old. That fact alone will open the door to even MORE PC users globally (and Mac).

    I guess we have to wait and see, because its any ones guess at this moment. 5 more weeks brothers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    You have to remember to look at the PC games. Console games have much greater market penetration than PC games do in general. I think Diablo 3 MIGHT (might!) be a record breaker. It might sell a million or two in the first week or two, yes. Five million in the first year could happen. It might even be a record setting seller over all and sell 15-20 million copies over the course of its LIFE.

    Fifteen million in a year? No chance. Not 'til they get a console release. In that moment their sales will go up incredibly.

    Do keep in mind, however, that this is an M-rated game. There is a loss of market penetration from that too. I think people underestimate the number of sales that come from the kiddies having their parents buy it for them.

    Edit: Also keep in mind the mass appeal that most of those multi-ten-million games have had. The games that sell 20-30 million copies are things like Mario Kart, Wii Fit. Things that appeal to an enormous, cosmopolitan market. Diablo is much more niche. I know nobody likes to hear that, but we're a relatively small market compared to the Farmville crowd.

    Edit 2: Why the hell did my edit drop below someone else's post, and leave my original up there? That's annoying.

  20. #40
    I have little to no faith in such predictions as all of the predictions of WoW subscriber movements have proven false in the past
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