Some info on sub-numbers. Not just for SWTOR.

[Arlee]

I've yet to see anything that convinces me they have any basis in fact.

Again can you read the thread instead of picking out the first reply... this is getting silly. We aren't even past the first page you guys can at least manage to read 20 replies right?

[chazus]

Notably, EVE Online is almost the only game that has been running for 5+ years and hasn't had any significant drop in subs.

[SirRobin]

Ultimate verdict...they really can't prove anything. Almost every entry is graded by their own scale of B and lower. Even determining their A grade, I underlined why I will never believe anything they publish. Basically everything they do is logical guesswork. No thank you.

Edit: They also do not reveal what any of these 'reliable sources' are. Oh ok, please feed me the sugar spoon sir!

Yep, what it boils down to is him "guesstimating" and I don't find his to be any more or less valid than my own.

[Tastyfish]

As far as I know those graphs are pretty accurate. I haven't really seen anyone disprove their info.

We have seen these same graphs for the past year, so I assume with all the threads with them in it, they have become accepted.

[OmniSkribe]

Notably, EVE Online is almost the only game that has been running for 5+ years and hasn't had any significant drop in subs.

Much more than 5+ (almost 10 years) years but Eve never had many customers. It's streaming hardcore solid base due to many many free expansions. There is almost no period like in wow there content is cleared and you have nothing to do (simply because there is no content only features). Wiki states that current subscription count is only over 400k (there max online is ~45k players).

[theredviola]

That's really cool to look at. Thanks for the graph!

[chazus]

Much more then 5+ (almost 10 years) years but Eve never had many customers. It's streaming hardcore solid base

They haven't had a huge player base, but still, it's interesting to note after all this time, they have linear player increase.

Not only that, but I think EVE has one of the highest players at one time on a single world at a time.

[Rooflesstoofless]

Just because the company itself hasn't released numbers doesn't mean one can't get a general idea of it.

General ideas =/= accuracy. Without solid numbers given by the companies to back up the statements its just conjecture. OP's statement in the thread was spot on (LOTS of mmos have <1mil subs and do quite well), Arlee's assumption of accuracy by this sight is not.

[Generalfrisk]

Interesting GW1 isn't on that list. Neither is League of Legends. Those games both had 3-5m each.

[Arlee]

Interesting GW1 isn't on that list. Neither is League of Legends. Those games both had 3-5m each.

League of Legends isn't a MMO though right? GW1 isn't on there though because it doesn't require a sub to play (and I am pretty sure) it never did. So having it on graphs that track numbers of subs wouldn't work well

[chazus]

I was under the impression LoL is also free.

[Arlee]

General ideas =/= accuracy. Without solid numbers given by the companies to back up the statements its just conjecture. OP's statement in the thread was spot on (LOTS of mmos have <1mil subs and do quite well), Arlee's assumption of accuracy by this sight is not.

My assumption was based on the fact that I have seen these graphs posted MANY MANY places and have never seen anyone discredit their numbers. Also like I said previously if you, idk maybe read the whole thread, you would have noticed that after kitty made his post with the info about how they get their numbers I said:

Ah I see, well that is saddening.

But no you are right. It probably is more enjoyable for you to just cherry pick things and pick on me.

[Lord Kristivas]

General ideas =/= accuracy. Without solid numbers given by the companies to back up the statements its just conjecture. OP's statement in the thread was spot on (LOTS of mmos have <1mil subs and do quite well), Arlee's assumption of accuracy by this sight is not.

I do think a "general idea" isn't so bad, when the companies won't even tell you. I'm sure the numbers aren't exact, but how wrong can they be? As long as they're within a good range, it's interesting for those who find such things interesting.

Though, yes, one of my main reasons for posting was to show how well some games do without reaching millions. A hundred thousand people playing a game with a $15 a month price tag is still over a million dollars a month. It's entirely possible to flourish on less than a million people, and a 100k-people game can feel just as full and living as a WoW server, so long as they don't have their populace spread out over tons of extra servers.

This thread was also for entertainment purposes! For people that like little tidbits of possibly-not-accurate knowledge. No need for anyone to get fired up. If your favorite game looks like it has shit numbers on the chart, that doesn't really matter much. That you like playing it is what counts!

[Kelimbror]

Yeah, it's not really "proof". You can't prove your numbers when the company doesn't release them (Trion, for example). These are estimates, and the site even admits they're estimates. The community is pretty good at figuring these things out, though. The charts might be off one way or another, but it can't be by that much, right? Say 30-50k in one direction or the other?

Which particular entry did you find the most "false" or "inaccurate"? Just curiosity on my part.

Hahahaha. Reread your sentence and let the laughter lift your soul.

It can't find any of them more false or inaccurate, as none of them have factual information to analyze. They are all just as terribly inaccurate as the next. If they revealed their sources for each grade and exactly how they calculate the numbers, then I would have a choice whether to believe. Then again, they will never do this because all of their info is at least 50% speculation at best.

World of Warcraft is obviously the most "believable" if you want me to name something, because they publicly announce their subscriptions every 3 months. All the rest you can just throw out a window.

---------- Post added 2012-08-23 at 04:29 PM ----------

Yep, what it boils down to is him "guesstimating" and I don't find his to be any more or less valid than my own.

He bought the website 'mmo-data' before we did. This is his credibility.


Edit: I say this not to be all negative, but to reinforce the fact that these numbers simply don't matter. I defend games that are fun, that have people playing them, against people saying they are garbage b/c there's no numbers. All I can point to is that they are still making money and making more game. At the end of the day, this fact and our experience is all that we have.

Let the chips then fall where they may.

[SirRobin]

Yep, that graph is frequently referenced because it is one of the few attempts to make one. It is one of the few attempts because subscription slash active player numbers can be a sensitive subject for developers so they don't broadcast them frequently, if at all. So most of the data is based off conjecture, not actual sources. He is just "guesstimating" and trying to lend it authenticity it doesn't have by making it look professional.

[Lord Kristivas]

Hahahaha. Reread your sentence and let the laughter lift your soul.

I didn't mean this community, like us normal folk. I mean the community of people who actually go behind the scenes to do stuff like that. Yeah, I don't imagine they're super accurate, but let's take a game like Rift. A "C-rating" game you mentioned. Do you think the numbers on the chart are less, or more? I don't see that big a deal with it, honestly. I know they aren't absolutely correct, but I bet they're closer than you think. And maybe it'll be years before we learn the truth, but this was all just for fun anyway. :P

[Gerendfs]

A little off SWTOR topic, but relevant to the thread. I checked out the sub 50k chart and was amazed to find The Realm Online still on there. I played that probably 12 or 14 years ago. I'm even more surprised it has 12.5k subscriptions. I think they charge 5.99 a month, so they are still making 75k a month. Not bad for a old 2d turn based game.

[Kelimbror]

I didn't mean this community, like us normal folk. I mean the community of people who actually go behind the scenes to do stuff like that. Yeah, I don't imagine they're super accurate, but let's take a game like Rift. A "C-rating" game you mentioned. Do you think the numbers on the chart are less, or more? I don't see that big a deal with it, honestly. I know they aren't absolutely correct, but I bet they're closer than you think. And maybe it'll be years before we learn the truth, but this was all just for fun anyway. :P

I'm sorry but I honestly have no way of even trying to guess Rift's numbers. I don't play the game and have no evidence to support anything. I can pull a number out of an orifice, but it's not going to bring anything relevant to the conversation.

The closest I can get for you is to say we should squash the peaks and raise the valleys, then bump up just about every game you've never heard of/people swear are terrible by a fixed amount....then throw WoW out of the graph completely. It would be a lot more accurate than the graph we have now. Though I hate to tell you, but it would basically just be colors all over the screen letting you know that a LOT of people love playing MMOs.

And to be fair, games that are F2P with sub options should either be removed or have an amount of subs estimated on top of the real number for all the money spent in the cash shop. Since we're just going to guess at everything, why not?

[Ausr]

I knew it was BS that it was Chinese subs WoW was losing. People always love claiming that, saying "oh it doesn't matter that they lost subs because it was mostly Chinese people anyway."

No crap they lost subs in the West. They was acknowledged in the first and second quarters, as stated in the quarterly reports. The other reports this year were from the East, as stated. They can't lie about this. Holy hell, johnny freaking appleseed needs to be caught up.

[Serpenth]

The numbers seem correct. While there may not be solid evidence to support most of the data there is no data to dispute either.

And lol @ the chinese people don't count as subs argument. Anyone who pays to play the game is a subscriber. We don't need to get uber technical to prove that "WoW is dead". And Blizzard doesn't need to "fluff" their numbers. Yes they are declining. The Mayans predicted that a decline in WoW subscriptions would lead to a world wide apocalypse.