Mafia game discussion thread.

[Virothe]

Why you so mean to me? You burned down my house, set me on fire, and now insulted my diaries.

I kinda got you killed too, But ya >.>

And it wasn't an insult! it just wasn't praise. And I set you on fire cause you were saying you were cold.... and your house was just cause I'm a pyro.

[Robozerim]

I kinda got you killed too, But ya >.>

And it wasn't an insult! it just wasn't praise. And I set you on fire cause you were saying you were cold.... and your house was just cause I'm a pyro.

You didn't even read my diaries, did you? If you did you would have known I didn't actually die, I had put on a harness that prevents death by hanging and then walked up to the gallows myself, where I just kinda hung around until Silkku took me to the morgue.

[Blood Fox]

Yea true, I just meant above all else priority was a bit odd. Like if Greeney had gone for Xan or the cult being sacraficed the next day, your kill would have still gone off first.

oh my kill eh?

[Krayzy]

Can people acknowledge that I wasn't wrong with my voting all game long? My votes went exactly as planned seeing as how I was scum. (I know none of you knew that at the time)


As for Lysah and others saying that the cult wasn't aggressive enough or whatever towards the end of the game: I joined the cult and it was decimated. My plan, which Xanjori was cool with and it was probably his plan as well, was to build the cult back up. The first two nights I was with the cult I chose to have us recruit 2 people who I knew were scum because they verified they were VT's with how they responded to my claim. There was absolutely no doubt they were VT's and I'm not sure most picked up on that. The third night we tried to recruit Greeney because we wanted someone who hadn't been a target at all. Night four we used Rollo to try and kill Greeney (we figured he wouldn't survive much longer anyways) and recruited Keleb.

We were in great shape at this point and as long as none of us were targeted for the lynch (pushing a lynch on someone else was easy and there was no point in outing one of us at this point just to kill Greeney since he was our target that upcoming night anyways).

The last night everyone knows how it played out.

The one thing we didn't know, and it was part of the reason we were still playing things safe, is whether or not there were any mafia left alive. None of us has the info Greeney had (except those in the dead thread), so we didn't know what roles were still alive.

[Anakso]

oh my kill eh?

Cults kill! forget who is who xD

[Deleted]

Well if you were cult, there was no ??? next to your name, and Listo was Godfather...

Could have been the vig

Well, I'm glad that I was at least killed for a reason and not just "LOL, UNLUCKY NUMBER TWENTY-FOUR!" (or whatever the hell my number was).

When is the next game?

Its funny because the mafia were going to kill you before they settled on me.

[keleb]

Keleb, I don't plan on playing the next game so if you want to mod I'd gladly co-mod with you again. I can cover for you on the days you are gone.

No, I rather not since Lysah said she was rather ready to mod. I'm at a point in preparation for the game where I can do the next game by getting to work more on the setup but getting to the point I had planned would take longer so the game wouldn't be where I'd want it if I did it now. Working, yes, but not where I would really want it. I hadn't planned to do it now and since Lysah seems ready it's better she'll do her game now and I'll make sure to be prepared after hers if Rollo aint done by then.

Alright, I don't want to harp on this too much because I kind of sound like a backseat driver, but it needs to be said and summarized: the setup for this game was heavily anti-Town. Even with near-perfect play, I don't think this game was winnable for Town except with great luck or an early (mostly accidental) lynch or NK on the Godfather, Cannibal, and/or Cultist Leader.

1. The game started with 11 Scum (7 Mafia, 3 Cult, 1 SK) and 17 Town. By D3, most of the time the Town will no longer have the majority in voting. That's pretty ridiculous. I understand you wanted to flesh out each faction, but you exceeded the "1/3 scum at max" guideline by 2 people. 6 Mafia, 1 SK, and 2 Cult (1 if you didn't give them the scum penalty) would have been a far more balanced setup.

2. The Cult was far too powerful. You gave them a factional kill that they certainly didn't need, and you didn't include a penalty for hitting other scum. In fact, with these traits combined, it made it so that they could find other scum and TPRs (by not being able to recruit them) and then kill them off afterwards! The Cult was basically invincible once they started playing better (N3).

3. Information was denied far too much. Three things were concealed here (faction mechanics, night action priority, and NKs from the Cannibal) and at least one of them shouldn't have been if you wanted Town to have a real shot.

I know this was your first game moderating here and that you were trying something new (Cult) and that I'm also new, but I think what I pointed out above is pretty valid feedback on the state of the last game.

I still had fun, liked the game, and will play next time, but I think in retrospect, the game setup could have been far more balanced. The Town certainly played badly and made mistakes, myself included, but I don't think the game was actually realistically winnable with this setup.

You take up all the points I had about the cult until I read post 303 in the dead thread. If the cult falls with its leader it has a rather huge weakness. Compare it to the SK. The same loss condition, you die. Both had a vest and thus an extra protection against NK (but not lynch). Cannibal had the advantage of knowledge from his kills, killing without penalty and depriving the town (including cult) the knowledge. Cult had the advantage of more votes and influence over the town. I think one should see the cult in this game more as "Xanjori with friends" than "the 7 players" who was in it.

[Lysah]

My game will be unlike anything you have experienced in Vanilla Town.

[Simca]

Oh, and also, you made a big mistake in game design that was almost game-breaking: make sure to actually shuffle the roles because people like me will figure out the pattern and ruin your game.

I stopped myself from posting this:


Dyra may be the stat cat, but I'm the pattern cat.


I stopped myself at first because I thought I was wrong. Clearly, since Xanjori didn't die N3, I must have been wrong. However, I was very hostile against Kurio, Kuthe, and Keleb (for three different reasons). Keleb's reason was because he was above the Acolytes on the list. I was hostile towards him until I started to believe that maybe the Cult no longer existed. When I figured out it did on the final day, I saw Xanjori's incredibly fuckin' cheesy post (the one with the exclamation points) and immediately thought of the picture, which is why I was hostile towards him on that day.

The thing is that I wasn't confident about it, and I doubted my ability to get a lynch on Xanjori.

[Lysah]

RNG is RNG*

[Simca]

RNG is RNG*

Yeah, that's not RNG though; that's clearly Sikku designing the roles from that list, which is why he removed it D3 when he went to mark the roles on it - he realized it then. It's also why he posted it at the end of the thread - because it was -his- list.

I'm just saying that in the future "be careful" because that had a very real chance to break the game.

[Deleted]

fml, sucks to be picked of just based on greeney /randoming my name
Ah well, guess I had it comming for being inactive, who will host next game/any idea when it will start?
Me and a rl friend would defo want to play (again).

[Blueobelisk]

I asked Silkku, and Wass confirmed it was RNG.

Btw Simca I said that we were going to stop accepting certain health insurances so that we'd collect more money since you're working your ass off day and night.

Would have been cool if there was a pharmacist in the game, then we could have run an HMO.

[Deleted]

Town started off with double investigators, a Jack with no limitations (except no Doccing same person twice in a row), Dock and a NK of their own. Cult didn't have potential for infinite growth since they could only recruit VT and the entire Cult would have died should Xanj kick the bucket.

But as we all know, Cop got himself lynched, Vigi had to claim and Jack came out right after. Dyra died to unlucky NK from Mafia

The reaspn I gave Cult the NK was for them to use against the SK and Seer. If Seer claimed they wouldn't die since town won't lynch them, Mafia won't NK them and Cannibal won't eat them (Greeney didn't know he'd flip Cult for Seer and 'mafia for Cop).

Cult was in really shitty position after N3 with only Xanj alive. Luckily Kray came along and town threw themselves at Cult's feet with the abysmal play.

Oh and all roles were RNG'd. I simply went down the list and rolled a role. Cult was for numbers 1 and 2 and leader was number 2X. It was simply funny coincidence that I even pointed out in Mod thread

[Simca]

Oh and all roles were RNG'd. I simply went down the list and rolled a role. Cult was for numbers 1 and 2 and leader was number 2X. It was simply funny coincidence that I even pointed out in Mod thread

I'm also great at seeing patterns that don't exist, too.

[Decagon]

But as we all know, Cop got himself lynched, Vigi had to claim and Jack came out right after. Dyra died to unlucky NK from Mafia

To be fair though, I thought that was more the towns fault rather than Blue's fault. I dunno, I didn't read everything from that day, so maybe I'm wrong.

I'm also great at seeing patterns that don't exist, too.

You can find patterns in literally everything.

[keleb]

Simca, just look at how the rest of the roles were assigned in that list. It only takes one to break a pattern. One important thing in statistics is that just because "it's only 1 % chance it'll happen" doesn't mean it won't. Usually you'll find the the probability table is made up of thousands of very small probabilities. As an example, the chance of the the list ending with a Mafia, vigilante, VT is lower than the chance of . I can name a lot of more of those small things. That chance of a single one of them happening is small, but the chance of none of those things happening is even smaller.

[Simca]

Simca, just look at how the rest of the roles were assigned in that list. It only takes one to break a pattern. One important thing in statistics is that just because "it's only 1 % chance it'll happen" doesn't mean it won't. Usually you'll find the the probability table is made up of thousands of very small probabilities. As an example, the chance of the the list ending with a Mafia, vigilante, VT is lower than the chance of . I can name a lot of more of those small things. That chance of a single one of them happening is small, but the chance of none of those things happening is even smaller.

Trust me, I've been fighting that battle all week.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8892470086

Edit: Actually keleb, relevant stats question: can you answer this? http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8892470086#12

The question is in the quote, and that guy's analysis seems right. I just can't recall the statistics test I'd use to look at a weighted average. I recall something like 'you take the largest standard deviation as the new standard deviation of the weighted average' or some rule like, but... well, what's the best way to go about what I'm trying to do, do you think?

[Loaf]

Simca, just look at how the rest of the roles were assigned in that list. It only takes one to break a pattern. One important thing in statistics is that just because "it's only 1 % chance it'll happen" doesn't mean it won't. Usually you'll find the the probability table is made up of thousands of very small probabilities. As an example, the chance of the the list ending with a Mafia, vigilante, VT is lower than the chance of . I can name a lot of more of those small things. That chance of a single one of them happening is small, but the chance of none of those things happening is even smaller.

like the pokemafia game where Fal just happened to hit both Lysah and I think Celtic with her one time investigate and they both just happened to be the ones targeted that day. Small chance by whoever did the math, but it still happened.

[Simca]

Also, thinking about it, the chance wasn't really that small. Since Sikku assigned the scum roles the same 'priority' when distributing as things that had a large populace (Vanilla Townie), it was highly likely that scum would be more densely concentrated towards the top of the list.

Edit: Also, Worgenite - win signature. I can always use more Queen on my playlist.