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  1. #1
    Warchief theWocky's Avatar
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    GW2 Auction House Rigged/Fixed?

    I love playing the auction house in games. I've noticed something bizarre in Guild Wars 2. This has occurred more than once. A lot more.

    I regularly hit refresh to check the supply/demand before buying stock and I've noticed this a hell of a lot.

    The weird thing is I have noticed when there is an item with about 50% profit potential suddenly getting a random "sell order" of a few hundred of the item being put on the Auction House for exactly 15% above the buy orders (which is the break-even point for profit).

    It's has the effect of normalizing the market and making it almost impossible to make a good return. This sell order is completely weird as it is often several copper below the current bid, BUT exactly 15% higher than the highest buy order.

    For example, there will be a LOT of Ancient Bones will be on for 30copper and they are selling for 44copper. Suddenly, out of nowhere, 200 sell orders will appear for 35 copper (exactly 15% markup. The result? Everyone puts items on for 35 copper for the next while. If the demand is high, those at 35 copper are snatched up, but usually, it drives down the price considerably. Speculators can't make money at all. People can't sell their gathered items for a decent profit and it is exceptionally hard to make money in the game. Crafting is a waste of time as you can generally buy for cheaper than making a profit out of crafting.

    I have been staring at the AH and hitting refresh for well over 20 hours as playing the AH is a pastime of mine. This is occurring way too often to be a fluke. I should be making a lot of money with this. I made 14,000 gold in Vanilla WoW and got gold-capped regularly in WoW. I made Billions in ISK in EvE (which IS a semi-controlled AH, but I STILL made huge profits and money)

    Is ArenaNet deliberately automatically injecting stock sell orders into the Auction House to artificially keep prices low? There would be no way of telling as you don't know WHO buys your stock.

    I can't see speculators like myself doing this. The result is that it is very hard to make money. Sorry to don the tin foil cap, but I have noticed this several times on several high-trading / high profit potential items. I've made a bit of cash, but this anomoly has me very concerned and frustrated. I am definately beginning to feel the Auction House is rigged.

    I love the game, but after a week of playing the AH, compared to other stock markets and auction houses I have played, something seems a bit "off".
    Last edited by theWocky; 2012-09-18 at 05:51 PM.

  2. #2
    Dreadlord flarecde's Avatar
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    There's a tool out there that calculates that value. Might be a lot of people have started using it. Could be the bots, too.

    Keep in mind there's only one AH in this game, so chances are there's always going to be very stiff competition. WoW has dozens of servers, and EVE has hundreds of systems, even if most people stayed in Jita.
    ~ flarecde
    Reality is nothing; Perception is everything.

  3. #3
    I am Murloc! SirRobin's Avatar
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    Yeah the fact that, like guilds, the TP is "global" could account for that I think. You are not in a market with a few thousand other traders. You are in a market with a few hundred-thousand other traders.

    Now I'm not saying Arena Net wouldn't manipulate the market. Their ongoing revenue relies on keeping the gold supply tight after all. I'm just not sure they would actually need to when you have this many traders involved.
    Last edited by SirRobin; 2012-09-18 at 05:59 PM.

  4. #4
    Warchief theWocky's Avatar
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    In my opinion, the only person who could benefit from this activity is ArenaNet. I use a spreadsheet to calculate the values. I have also played other virtual stock markets with thousands of players. This is definately suspect.

  5. #5
    Dreadlord Vexies's Avatar
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    In my opinion, the only person who could benefit from this activity is ArenaNet. I use a spreadsheet to calculate the values. I have also played other virtual stock markets with thousands of players. This is definately suspect.
    Its definitely the evil developers!! Quick grab the pitch forks!! and oh dont forget the tinfoil hats! when need them to keep the mind control rays out.

  6. #6
    If they are doing it, it's probably just to stop people from, like you said, buying copper at 30s and selling for 44c. Activity like this, while very popular among market-savvy gamers, really takes way from the full game experience. It's almost as if they want people to play the actual game, rather than just playing the market. ANet has been pretty big on the whole 'just play the game' concept since the beginning. Just a thought.

  7. #7
    Stock markets with thousands of players is still, at the very best, barely a percent of the amount of players in GW2 trading post. If even a tiny fraction of people use the trading application mentioned, they already outnumber all of the traders in the markets you are used to.

  8. #8
    Dreadlord flarecde's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirRobin View Post
    Now I'm not saying Arena Net wouldn't manipulate the market. Their ongoing revenue relies on keeping the gold supply tight after all. I'm just not sure they would actually need to when you have this many traders involved.
    Gold supply is controlled by the fountains, not the AH though. The AH moves gold, but doesn't add or remove it from the system. I don't think it really matters to them how much items cost. I could see them tweaking gems though.

    They are keeping the supply tight though, RE: dungeon changes.
    ~ flarecde
    Reality is nothing; Perception is everything.

  9. #9
    Banned Lucas Ashrock's Avatar
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    Nah, Anet is not doing nothing. But ye, you got why TP is just trash hehe
    What you figure out is just a old powerseller (pathetic) tactic to manipulate and control the market. The trick explained by the OP is exactly the powerseller trick used in Spamadan , if you just have the eye to notice it. Argos helps a bit to figure it out. I figure it out after a few hours. Luckly i was back to gw1 just for my quick 30 homs and left forgetting this game forever i hope.

    I logged yesterday because a friend ask me something i had on my bag. A desert, noone is playing the content anymore. Went to Spamadan, the same exact idiot WTB WTS trashy spam going and going , even now they are the only players left. They scam themselfs in circle maybe XD

    Don't be paranoid, Anet is not manipulating the market less than needed to insinuate, psychologically, slowly, the needing to players to use their credit cards and throw real cash to Anet bank account, buying... gems for gold..

  10. #10
    Warchief theWocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Artorias View Post
    If they are doing it, it's probably just to stop people from, like you said, buying copper at 30s and selling for 44c. Activity like this, while very popular among market-savvy gamers, really takes way from the full game experience. It's almost as if they want people to play the actual game, rather than just playing the market. ANet has been pretty big on the whole 'just play the game' concept since the beginning. Just a thought.
    I am playing the game. The market is part of the game.

    I also play the stock market in real life. I enjoy the stress. Bought just over a hundred ounces of gold at us$692 in 2008 and sold at over $1700 in 2011. At the moment, I have quite a bit in Rhodium.

  11. #11
    Banned Lucas Ashrock's Avatar
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    Smart choice, gold and silver are a waste, now. Keep going with Rhodium

  12. #12
    Moderator Remilia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by flarecde View Post
    Gold supply is controlled by the fountains, not the AH though. The AH moves gold, but doesn't add or remove it from the system. I don't think it really matters to them how much items cost. I could see them tweaking gems though.

    They are keeping the supply tight though, RE: dungeon changes.
    The trading post removes the gold via a posting fee, and a transaction tax of 5 / 10% respectively. So yes it is removing it from the system effectively.
    Gems have a 25-30% tax on them effectively removing it from the system. Forcibly keeping gold lower as long as possible.

  13. #13
    I just wish items were worth something >> instead of being 1copper above the dang vendor price.

  14. #14
    There is many people who know that it'd be profitable to use buy orders to make profit off the lowest price, and therefore use it. There is also what seems to be a way to avoid being behind the thousands of buy orders before you by doing smaller amounts, is what I've heard.

  15. #15
    Warchief theWocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaeh View Post
    There is many people who know that it'd be profitable to use buy orders to make profit off the lowest price, and therefore use it. There is also what seems to be a way to avoid being behind the thousands of buy orders before you by doing smaller amounts, is what I've heard.
    "Buy orders" are not my concern. It is obvious people will put an order in as low as possible. Everyone knows people place low buy orders. Sometimes you get lucky by making an absurdly low offer. I once made an offer on a house that was well under 1/2 market value, but the guy was desperate, couldn't get a buyer, and I got it.

    You always try to get stuff at the lowest cost. In GW2 auction house, it's the "magically" appearing very low "sell orders" that are making me suspicious. If you want to sell something quick, all you have to do is to put your stuff for sale for 1c less and you will be first to sell it. There is no logical reason to put it in for "lowest buy order + 15%" as it nullifies any prospect of profitability in the economy. It should only work on supply/demand. No single speculator is going to easily be able to buy up 100,000 items of stock on a global AH in the game. The supply/demand would not allow for those sort of transactions.

    Why are these seemingly magically appearing "sell orders" of "highest buy order + 15%" appearing? Their purpose can only be to make trading non viable. I've monitored it tonight again. It's happened more than a few times.

    I call foul and am just going to level my characters throught the zones I haven't seen yet, do the story lines, and then quit the game. Game has no replay value for me if the AH is jinxed. I am not buying gold from gems.

    I accept a 5% list fee and 10% tax on sales. That is similar to agent's commission in the real world. I don't, however, accept what seems to be an obvious manipulation of the economy with the injection of stock at reduced selling price. Why are there no names of sellers? Blizz displays these. So do all other AH in games I have played. Makes me suspect foul play.

    I still believe I have got my money's worth out the game (more enjoyment/entertainment than I've had in a long time), but disappointed with what I deem seemingly unethical, unfair behaviour to control the economy to make sure people buy gems.

    It doesn't only affect guys like me that play the market. It lowers the selling price for everyone, so you can't get gold easier to buy gems to expand your game. I believe the high drop rates of greens (cheaper to buy better gear off AH than to craft) and this system of stock manipulation is what is behind the pathetic economy in the game.
    Last edited by theWocky; 2012-09-19 at 12:34 AM.

  16. #16
    What is odd, is the rare dyes, Abyss, Midnight Ice, Midnight Fire and Celestial. The most sought after ones.
    So whats so strange?

    Verify this yourself, there is always no matter time of day or night, 1 or 2 of each, no more, no less, and price fixed between 2g - 5g.
    Kinda impossible to always be only 1 or 2 in stock, and the price fluctuates between that gold number, so it's not like they're not being sold.

    I'm of the opinion that this is fixed pricing by ArenaNet.

  17. #17
    The problem is that the TP is like Jita x 5000 you have sooo many people all using the same way of selling items. When I buy stuff (from others sell orders) I almost always save some money compared to the price that is listed and if I dont save money I usually get an error because the items I were trying to buy are gone. Theres simply soo many people who post and buy items all the time. The 15% fee is making it almost impossible to earn money on the TP, not because 15% is too much but because 15% is too much when you have so many people using the TP.

  18. #18
    I'm of opinion that one should not attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. There are hundreds of thousands of players in the game at any given time, many of them using the AH. That means that at least some of them will be stupid or ignorant enough not to realise all the gold sinks built into the AH and price their sales too low.

    With the sheer volume of trades, "gaming" the AH is extremely hard without a massive starting capital, just like it was in most games. Starting capital needs to be big enough in relation to entire AH. In games with many separate AHs like EVE and WoW, your starting capital could be far lower to effectively play the AH, while competition was far weaker.


    It's remotely possible that arenanet is injecting trades into the game to keep the deflationary pressure on gold so that they can sell more gems. Thing is though, they have enough problems on their plate right now. This kind of manipulation would also require significant effort to do appropriate market research. Considering that AH was fairly dysfunctional until very recently (read: broken, both in terms of generally working and actual trade functionality bugging out in random ways), I imagine that such algorithms, even if present would be among the first things to turn off until the system becomes reasonably bug-free.

  19. #19
    yeah i recon the AH is made that way so you buy gems

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Lucky_ View Post
    I'm of opinion that one should not attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity. There are hundreds of thousands of players in the game at any given time, many of them using the AH. That means that at least some of them will be stupid or ignorant enough not to realise all the gold sinks built into the AH and price their sales too low.

    With the sheer volume of trades, "gaming" the AH is extremely hard without a massive starting capital, just like it was in most games. Starting capital needs to be big enough in relation to entire AH. In games with many separate AHs like EVE and WoW, your starting capital could be far lower to effectively play the AH, while competition was far weaker.


    It's remotely possible that arenanet is injecting trades into the game to keep the deflationary pressure on gold so that they can sell more gems. Thing is though, they have enough problems on their plate right now. This kind of manipulation would also require significant effort to do appropriate market research. Considering that AH was fairly dysfunctional until very recently (read: broken, both in terms of generally working and actual trade functionality bugging out in random ways), I imagine that such algorithms, even if present would be among the first things to turn off until the system becomes reasonably bug-free.
    I don't think ANet aren't manipulating the market by injecting trades. They've already shown what they do when the market is out of wack for a product. They just create a "special recipe" in the Mystic Forge and watch the price go back to normal levels. Also, you are right about normal people (the grand majority of them who don't go onto forums and don't do the math of trades) who just are pricing low. It's what the Greedy Goblin would call M&S (morons and slackers) affecting the market.

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