Page 1 of 17
1
2
3
11
... LastLast
  1. #1

    Predictive Curve for the future of WoW Subscriptions



    My prediction is that come Q3 2015 (around the 2 million mark) WoW will stop subscriptions and start releasing patch sized 'Expansions' with the frequency of current Patches and charged for.
    Last edited by Thirdofherne; 2014-09-12 at 10:25 AM.

  2. #2


    Mod Edit: Please add something constructive to the discussion.
    Last edited by Shamanic; 2014-09-10 at 09:12 AM.

  3. #3
    High Overlord TheJewishMerp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    168
    Quote Originally Posted by Thirdofherne View Post
    It's all in the mathematics...


    My prediction is that come Q3 2015 (around the 2 million mark) WoW will be made Free-To-Play and patch sized 'Expansions' will be released with the frequency of current Patches and charged for as such.
    Why would WoW go free to play with 2 MILLION people still subbed, that's still a huge profit for Blizzard, the only time it would ever go f2p is when the sub numbers drop well below a million.

    Why was SWTOR considered a success at 1 million, but WoW a failure at 2 Million?

    1. Go to Home Depot (or the home improvement store of your choice)
    2. Purchase materials to build a small bridge
    3. Construct small bridge
    4. Write the word ISSUE on a piece of paper and place it under the bridge.
    5. Cross the bridge and GET OVER IT

  4. #4
    The Lightbringer Gumboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Minnesota
    Posts
    3,351
    Why do you have them at zero subs in 2016? Do you actually believe that? Even if they went "Free to play" they would still have a sub option :P

    - - - Updated - - -

    By the way, math does not take into account things like "Hardcore fans" that will pay til server shut down, things like "People that don't care about 15$ a month" (you know, people that have jobs and are not in financial trouble, things like that)
    Signatures are for squares! Oh wait...

  5. #5
    Epic! Lime's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Over There
    Posts
    1,551
    WoW will have 0 subs in 1-2 years? Hahaha!

    This is exactly what's wrong with these graphs/charts people keep making.

    Big thanks to Yoni for making this Avatar and Signature!

  6. #6
    High Overlord TheJewishMerp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    168
    Quote Originally Posted by Gumboy View Post
    By the way, math does not take into account things like "Hardcore fans" that will pay til server shut down, things like "People that don't care about 15$ a month" (you know, people that have jobs and are not in financial trouble, things like that)
    This, I am one of those people. I'm very secure financially and $15 a month is nothing for me when it comes to my entertainment budget. I've been playing for so long, just stopping seems dumb, 10 years of my life is a long time, and I'll be here until they take the servers down.

    1. Go to Home Depot (or the home improvement store of your choice)
    2. Purchase materials to build a small bridge
    3. Construct small bridge
    4. Write the word ISSUE on a piece of paper and place it under the bridge.
    5. Cross the bridge and GET OVER IT

  7. #7
    Dreadlord Morbownz's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Cheshire, UK
    Posts
    769
    Quote Originally Posted by Gumboy View Post
    Why do you have them at zero subs in 2016? Do you actually believe that?
    There's no way will WoW be over in 2016. I don't think it would have gained many subs and may even have significantly less players... but zero? I really don't see it.
    Lets all go to the Blizz-store, Lets all go to the Blizz-store, Lets all go to the Blizz-store to buy ourselves some treats. Delicious things for geeks, the Pixels can't be beat. The Achievement points are just dandy, them sparkling mounts are quite handy. So Lets all go to the Blizz-store and buy ourselves a treat.

  8. #8
    The Insane det's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    The forums
    Posts
    17,679
    Time to bookmark this and come back in 12 months, eh? Can you predict if you have a high paid job in the industry because you can make such accurate projections?
    Originally Posted by Blizzard Entertainment
    One cause is a cognitive bias called projection bias. Essentially living inside your own head your entire life makes it exceedingly difficult to understand how others do not also live your same life, think your same thoughts, and hold your same beliefs. In many cases it's quite frustrating to try to empathize and understand why you yourself may not be the center of the universe, which generally results in one 'acting out' in various ways.
    So, in short: the internet.

  9. #9
    Pandaren Monk mrgummage's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Hague, NL
    Posts
    1,825
    Yea... no. Not really, no.
    mrgummage#2816 | Grand Marshal Hottage | Warlords of Draenor Beta Club
    ASUS N53SM : Intel i7 2.2Ghz (3.1Ghz Turbo) : 16GB DDR3 : Geforce GT 630M : Samsung 840 EVO 1TB : Windows 8.1 Pro

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by det View Post
    Time to bookmark this and come back in 12 months, eh? Can you predict if you have a high paid job in the industry because you can make such accurate projections?
    His curve is somewhat accurate. WoD is predicted to lose atleast 3 million subs if the trend from cataclysm and MOP holds true. That puts us at atleast 3.5 million subs, with it most likely going lower. There is only evidence that sub loss will accelerate after the first month of so of the new expansion.

    Cata - 2 million subs lost
    MOP - 3 million subs lost
    Wod - 3-4 million subs?

    There will most likely be a stabilizing curve towards the 2 million mark however, with the 5th expansion only losing maybe half of WOD will lose.
    Last edited by cityguy193; 2014-09-09 at 02:14 PM.
    Pokemon FC: 1091 - 8286 - 2221 Aman Add me

  11. #11
    Banned Knadra's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Minato-Ku, Tokyo, Japan
    Posts
    1,808
    Hey guys, I just made my own graph. Hope you like it.

    http://www.destination360.com/north-...teway-arch.jpg

    Infracted. Removed the [IMG] coding as well.
    Last edited by Gehco; 2014-09-17 at 10:43 PM.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Lime View Post
    WoW will have 0 subs in 1-2 years? Hahaha!

    This is exactly what's wrong with these graphs/charts people keep making.
    Learn to comprehend a graphic imo.
    The graphic says 0M as in under 1 million.Can very well be 999.999.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by TheJewishMerp View Post
    This, I am one of those people. I'm very secure financially and $15 a month is nothing for me when it comes to my entertainment budget. I've been playing for so long, just stopping seems dumb, 10 years of my life is a long time, and I'll be here until they take the servers down.
    No you wont. If the game ends up in a state that you no longer find entertaining, then you will leave, as all sane-minded people will. Any false notion of "loyalty" is completely moronic.
    Pokemon FC: 1091 - 8286 - 2221 Aman Add me

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Thirdofherne View Post
    It's all in the mathematics...
    Yeah, let's extrapolate data without knowing its behaviour. It could just as well taper off slowly or do whatever. I strongly doubt you understood any mathematical concept beyond kindergarten level.

  15. #15
    Except that things don't always work out that way. Most people predicted Apple Computer would be dead over the same kind of time-scale with a virtually identical curve applied to their stock price, product sales, etc. But look at what happened there.

    Not everything in life is simple and linear and predictable. Sure, WoW might well go this route, but there's a chance that the downward spiral will level off rather than continuing to decline.

    Sometimes what's old becomes new and interesting again (the trick is not throwing it away during the "it's old and busted" period), or it's possible that WoW will achieve such a huge critical mass of content that people are able to keep them selves occupied almost indefinitely. Or maybe Blizzard will get bored with it once revenues fall below "only" a billion dollars a year or something and they'll make a disastrous attempt to make a WoW II or something.

    I don't know how it will go, but what I'm most certain of is that it won't be as simple as this graph suggests.

    PF.

  16. #16
    Mechagnome
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    560
    Guys i am a scientist and through my extensive knowledge and use of the hubble telescope it looks like as soon as they nerfed heroics in cata subs started dropping, coincidence with easy 5 mans in mob and dropping subs? i think not
    Why are Dungeons and Scenarios mash-fests that take less time than the actual queue or wait list? What a waste of content design...

  17. #17
    High Overlord TheJewishMerp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Merpland
    Posts
    168
    Quote Originally Posted by cityguy193 View Post
    No you wont. If the game ends up in a state that you no longer find entertaining, then you will leave, as all sane-minded people will. Any false notion of "loyalty" is completely moronic.
    Fair.

    But I have an extremely hard time believing that Blizzard is going to make the game "bad." The community on the other hand, may be the only reason I'll ever leave this game. If the change from F2P has shown us anything it is this: F2P doesn't meant the death of a game (most games do well after going F2P and are more profitable than they were when they are subbed) but it is the death of the games community.

    1. Go to Home Depot (or the home improvement store of your choice)
    2. Purchase materials to build a small bridge
    3. Construct small bridge
    4. Write the word ISSUE on a piece of paper and place it under the bridge.
    5. Cross the bridge and GET OVER IT

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Reliefpfeiler View Post
    Yeah, let's extrapolate data without knowing its behaviour. It could just as well taper off slowly or do whatever. I strongly doubt you understood any mathematical concept beyond kindergarten level.
    There is no evidence indicating that subs will taper off. Dunno why people keep saying it will, its been a trend for 4 years now.
    Pokemon FC: 1091 - 8286 - 2221 Aman Add me

  19. #19
    Pandaren Monk mrgummage's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    The Hague, NL
    Posts
    1,825
    Quote Originally Posted by Daffan View Post
    Guys i am a scientist and through my extensive knowledge and use of the hubble telescope it looks like as soon as they nerfed heroics in cata subs started dropping, coincidence with easy 5 mans in mob and dropping subs? i think not
    Now this is a guy whom I can have faith in. What are your science predictions?
    mrgummage#2816 | Grand Marshal Hottage | Warlords of Draenor Beta Club
    ASUS N53SM : Intel i7 2.2Ghz (3.1Ghz Turbo) : 16GB DDR3 : Geforce GT 630M : Samsung 840 EVO 1TB : Windows 8.1 Pro

  20. #20
    I think it doesn't take into account the Warcraft Movie which will probably boost sales.
    Capitalism, Ho!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •