By the end of MoP

[Mister K]

People have their opinions. I doubt they will be correct but they have every right to voice what they believe my poll is meant for all opinions.

Well of course they do I know that, I simply pointing out that the claim that "0 people will have cancelled" is simply not right.

[Snakehead]

Well of course they do I know that, I simply pointing out that the claim that "0 people will have cancelled" is simply not right.

It probably won't break even or gain the mmo genre is suffering from boredom. All the new releases are met with heavy criticism and this expansion will be no different. People will complain and leave.

[Deleted]

I cant help but "lol" at the "0 people will have canceled" being the most voted, i bet if there was a option that WoW would gain 20 million new subs you would have voted for that? Fanboys...

The game has clearly peaked in terms of gaining interest from the casual gamers with WotLK, that was the peak, before it was a constant raise, after it, it has been a constant downward spiral

That is simply natural, game will be lucky if it only loses 1 million players, expect 3+

[Osmeric]

Well of course they do I know that, I simply pointing out that the claim that "0 people will have cancelled" is simply not right.

I interpreted the poll to be talking about net changes in active account numbers, not gross numbers of quits. Of course the latter will be nonzero.

[Cybran]

At least 2 million.

[Deleted]

"This poll will close on 2014-09-26 at 03:37 PM". Not one second too early.

Subscriptions will continue to drop, but not as quick as during Cata unless they do something really stupid later during the expansion. Gardening and pet battles work as novelties, but only rich and/or stupid people will pay 150€ per year to keep playing *that*.

[Bonsaii]

Sorry but this really isn't a great post. Your question is asked with a complete negative bias. Who's to say Blizzard will not gain subscribers? You only allow people to say they will remain neutral. That's like me going around asking people "How many jobs do you think America will lose if we elect Romney?" (Switch in Obama if you're offended) you're going to get a skewed result. People will either be more pessimistic or react hard to counter you(as I'm doing here) You should ask where will the subscriber level be, will it gain or decline?

[Deleted]

500-1mil. i can't believe the people who think it will be 0 thats just silly.
I also can't believe the people that think its 3mil.... even my 500-1mil seems high, but i think its something thats possible

[BigAinCA]

This thread should have been locked down at the start

[zeropeorth]

Hard to say no one, if you looked at the CRZ threads, many people have already cancelled their pre-orders, cancelling their subs, or waiting for AP is over to cancel their subs. That is definitely MORE than zero.

My wife decided to not play any longer, and I'd rather play with her, so we are currently playing Tera, but added a sub to our SWTOR accounts, and have been enjoying it quite a bit the last few days.

Us alone, counts for 2 sub losses, no, not significant compared to 9 million, but, you know, still more than 0, which negates that option, and pretty much puts all those votes into the 'less than 500k'.

Unless they pick up some of the 'facebook' crowd with the pet battles and farm(ville-ish) additions, and can keep up with the promise of more content, faster (which they've failed with those promises, including the time between last tier and next xpac), people who've been playing for years, will continue to bleed off, and if the new blood doesn't come in fast enough, then they still lose overall.

Here is the catch, the community pushes the new players away. Attitudes are the issue now. People try it out, and ask a question in chat, and get berated for it. They roll their first toon, don't know much about it, queue up for stuff, and either see no conversation at all, or get told 'gtfo, l2p, nubsauce', or forbid they enter a nerd raging bg at low level.

If you want the game to survive, the community as a whole, needs to treat the new-comers better. There is no other way around it. If not, then most people would rather play Rift/Tera/SWTOR/something else.

I'm not saying some trolling shouldn't exist, it is fun and entertaining if done well, and not too aggressive personal attacks. But I've helped people before that were about to quit, because they were treated like criminals for not knowing every intricacy in the game. Honestly, if you spout 'mmo' but treat people like shit ... don't expect it the community to grow. Don't just bitch at them and send them to websites to study everything. Be personal. What are you doing anyway? Sitting in a queue? Flying circles around the capital city of your choice? Dancing on the steps of the bank/ah?

So, currently, because of the attitude of 'experienced' players (and that term is used loosely, most of the ones that say they've played for a long time, have come in MUCH more recently), no new players can really get experienced or enjoy the game.

Here is an example of some of the attitudes I've seen:
'Just get to 'max' level (ignoring the fact that new players enjoy the questing, story/lore, and need to get used to a new game).
'lol ur bad' (instead of guiding them, explaining the gear they should use and a simple rotation, invite them to the guild and let a class representative help them if they would like it).
Rolling NEED on -everything- ... so these new players just see selfishness, someone with a 380 pvp ring saying they need the 378 pve drop more than the person who just got enough ilvl to enter those level of heroics and may have a 333 blue and green ring on.
'lol lrn2gold noob' at someone not understanding why prices on AH are so high, or don't have money to train certain things that 'feel' necessary (such as faster flight, etc), instead of telling them to loot everything and vendor grays, and put greens and better on the AH, guiding them a bit on how to make light profit to do the simple things, and basics ... (the more they make, the more they can buy your stuff off AH, and -you- end up making more profit)

So, unless there is a major swing in the how the community treats itself in general ... this is what I expect to happen:
A sub rise for launch. Maybe not as big as it should be. (I think it was less concern about CRZ in particular, and more about HOW they handled it, especially those still not content with the AP fiasco's misleading presentation at Blizzcon, to the changing of the wording later on, with no apologies, EVEN IF, they believe they were completely correct. PR needs to be better, response to big outcries needs to be faster and more understanding).

Steady subs during the first tier, 16 bosses, will take some time if tuned right. Challenge modes should keep some of the top end raiders entertained for some time. Scenarios, dailies, etc.

2nd tier needs to be decent, timely, and with more than 6-8 bosses. 2-3 4-6 boss raids would be better for perception. Smaller content updates in between tiers will need to be able to hold interest enough to keep attention until next major content release.

If the 2nd tier ends up being 'not enough'. If, people find their fastest time, earn gold, and feel that no matter what further comp attempts they make, they will not improve their time, then that will become less enticing. If world pvp begins to die out again, and pvp starts to get the perception of imbalance or staleness ... after the 2nd tier, this is where the real sub loss will start to happen. Some may drop after killing the 16 T1 bosses, but some of those always resub for the next tier.

Overall quality, bug squashing. etc.


Now, what you will have in the end, IF, they loose another 2-3 million is ... Many asshats, that feel they are prozors because less of the end-gamers are left, many trolls, whom feel part of their fun in the game, is trolling itself, and many, many casuals and non-raiders ... who enjoy working on loremaster, playing the AH, doing dailies/questing, achievement seekers, pet battle enthusiasts, farm(ville) lovers, mount/pet collectors, etc. NONE of which are bad imo. Just not what the vocal say is great about the game.


Now, if they end up losing another 3 million ... will that mean the game is close to death? Hell no. That would still be 6 million people, but six million people who want to play a different game, and honestly, if I were in Blizz's shoes, I'd rather have 6 million 'laid-back' players who don't consume content like a crack whore smokes crack and whores, than people who kill their hardest content in weeks and sit in SW/Org crying there is nothing to do, when you have one of the LARGEST damn multiplayer games that ever existed, that runs pretty damn good/smooth, for nearly -any- pc/mac.

So, either way, the game will be fine. It may end up not the game you want, or the type of average player being the type you think should play. But it will survive. Only Blizz can destroy WoW, and atm, they really need to work on their PR, and be smarter about things like how they word AP and when they implement CRZ, even how they managed the initial launch of b.net/realID ... and if there is a sea of stress after these things, respond with empathy and respect ... because there are some, who don't feel disturbed by the problems themselves, but find when it is handled poorly, they still cringe a bit towards the attitude presented to the consumer.

I know that is the position I'm in. CRZ didn't affect me much, but I sure as hell think ignoring and being dismissive IS NOT the way to go as a company who has excellent customer service otherwise. That is exactly what I've seen, with AP, RealID, CRZ ... and that is what I don't like. To some extent, the customer's concerns are right, they are those customers feelings, ones that are paying money to access the content. You want to use a soft voice and a gentle hand, be understanding and respectful.

Telling people on one hand, 'it is easy to turn off', then saying on the other 'it is here to stay, deal with the bugs and unforeseen problems (like loading screen ganking, overcrowding, elevated levels of griefing), turn off events that have run fine for years, instead of the new 'feature' that broke it ... it all seems a bit disrespectful. I think more are mad about how they handle big issues, than the issues themselves. I know that WAS a factor in my wife's decision to leave, and she has played since vanilla, on multiple accounts, and includes Blizzcon events, CEs of all their games, and the money on transfers and fax changes ... between the both of us (I started in BC), we could literally buy a new car (it may be a hyundai :P, but still, a new car). They've, possibly temporarily, squashed all her excitement and enthusiasm, by the way the implement things, and handle the aftermath. She was excited as hell to play Mists, we were in Beta, but the underlying frustration with a lot of little things got exasberated by the implementation and handling of CRZ in particular. Not the attitude to have right before the release, and we DO enjoy the other MMOs we've played.

Basically, I see a possibility of WoW bottoming out around the 6 million mark at the end of Mists, if they -don't- do it right, and hold to their promises, and the new stuff doesn't grab people like it possibly can. That is still a lot of people and revenue. The only thing to worry about then is shareholder pulling out because it is at 50% of its former self, and 2 xpacs in a row with major losses.


I hope the game succeeds though. And honestly, even 6 million is still a success.


These threads do end up getting tiring though. Number of subscribers shouldn't matter in the end. What should matter is, 'do -you- enjoy the game?' Is it a quality production? Is the customer service acceptable? Do they value their customers? Is the game as balanced as it can be with the options available and the tools at hand? Do you get value for dollar spent? xpac cost? enough new content to justify a monthly fee?

And as for all that 'other games don't have end game, that is why I play WoW' stuff, well, DS is quite old. ICC was out for a long time. The WoW cycle is slow. Other games, objectively, have similar content and quality. Except Rift. They give updates and content consistently. They are the new standard. I may not personally enjoy it enough to stay subbed, but their raiding community loves the fight designs, the difficulty level, and the consistent infusion of new content. It is a pretty game, runs pretty good, creative, and not too restrictive with the way they do 'souls'. I enjoy Tera combat style and beautiful world. I enjoy SWTORs VOs/quests/world ... I also enjoy WoW and its smoothness, and familiarity with its world(s) and lore. I LOVE WoW, but I will still be canceling my sub when our AP runs out, and NOT buying Mists, at least, for now; because I -also- LOVE SWTOR and Tera.

The sky ISN'T falling. Even if they hit 6 million subs. So relax. There will be an xpac after Mists ... unless something ridiculous happens and the entire community becomes disenfranchised, or they pull the plug for whatever reason.

[Seirith]

Why even bother buying mop if your going to quit as soon as possible?

Same reason I do it with every expansion. I don't really like to raid, I get bored of it very easily do I get to 90, do the raids and then quit. I only play one character as well because I don't want to raid/gear/level another character.

I enjoy leveling, one time, seeing new stuff and then I get bored.

If my account wasn't open I probably won't even get MoP right now because between full time work and grad school I have very little free time.

[Lumennon]

That depends on whether or not they'll be able to close the gap between the last patch of the expansion and the next expansion, like they intend to. Lots of people, as we know, were not too thrilled with ten months of DS, lots were not too thrilled with ICC for almost a year.

If they can do better as far as that's concerned this time around, the losses could very well be minimal.

[Rotted]

Id say 500k is a safe bet,

no more than 1m,

But I predict a raise in subs for the first month, reclaming ones that were lost and new ones, before people get bored and re un sub

[Osmeric]

The only thing to worry about then is shareholder pulling out because it is at 50% of its former self, and 2 xpacs in a row with major losses.

What does this even mean? Shareholders are not supplying money to Blizzard; quite the opposite. Do you nean shareholders (through the board) directing ATVI management to cease expending company resources on future WoW expansions?

[Kerath]

I'm throwing my hat into the 500,000-1,000,000 ring. I reckon sub losses will be slower than what we've seen in Cata - I'm hoping that lessons have been learned - but I think a slow decline is inevitable at this point. I'd love to be proved wrong, but I don't see it happening.

[Bozzy]

Hopefully more than 3'000'000... @ the beginning of MoP.
I'm one of them :P

[TheEaterofSouls]

I say 2,000,000 or more but whatever the end result I'll just keep playing and let the rants of people on forums try not to bug me.

[Kerath]

This thread should have been locked down at the start

Why? The discussion seems civil enough so far to me - and it's a genuine point of discussion that's of interest to WoW players.

[Frenegade42]

That's the same thing. I personally feel none. I've been through parts of the beta as have almost all of the mods and my entire 25 man raid team. Every single one loved it. They love it. They think it's amazing and it's just where WoW needed to go to stem the losses from Cata.

For a little perspective, can I ask how the mods, your raid team and yourself felt about the Cata Beta?

[Draknalor186]

Pandaland will conquer all, no1 will wanna leave