By the end of MoP

**Jtbrig7390** · 2012-09-25, 10:14 PM

Originally Posted by Kevyne-Shandris

Yeah, I understand that. But I'm referring to the way BF3 is doing it. It's like GW2, but there's no forcing to pay for extra expansions to enjoy the game. You pay for what content you want to play without penalty with what you're currently playing.

If I could play WotLK without the world updating I'd be happy, but didn't have that option as the world change was forced.

K i took what you said the wrong way then that was my fault.

I personally feel that Original wow and TBC should be free and each x-pac after MOP adds one to the free list and i think it would get new players hooked but hey that's just my opinion.

**mvallas** · 2012-09-25, 11:05 PM

Originally Posted by Tziva

If the game ends up like Cataclysm with weaker and briefer content patches, the losses might be more significant as even more established players get bored and apathetic and take off.

Hate to burst your bubble... but the sub losses started right from Cata's launch quarter. They didn't just get "bored" of Cata... they hated Cata out the gate.

And need I remind you of Q2 2011's 800k loss, which was the 3 month period when Cataclysm launched in China - which also happened to be the quarter where the most subs lost came FROM CHINA?

**shise** · 2012-09-25, 11:08 PM

I was one of the "anti MoP idea", for calling it somehow, I simply didn't like it.

But now, leveling p, SO FAR, it's the BEST designed expansion by FAR.... and I am a BC lover...

Every corner is plain amazing. Now let's see how thigns turn out till the nxt month

**Enosh** · 2012-09-25, 11:11 PM

Originally Posted by Mothhive

As for how many subs I think will be lost by the end of the expansion, I'd say WoW is definitely going to see a continuing drop off in subs throughout the expansion, not only because the new content does not appeal to everyone, but because there will be so many great alternatives around that offer competitive levels and quality of content but are either free or a one off payment, so I can easily see it lose at least another 3 million by the next expansion.

mmo jesus will finally smite evil wow confirmed

**SmokeBlader** · 2012-09-25, 11:16 PM

Hopefully they lose a lot. Especially from Alliance players.

**VibrantViolet** · 2012-09-25, 11:27 PM

People saying 0 will cancel are living in la-la land. They aren't necessarily bleeding subs, but people always quit at some point.

**SmokeBlader** · 2012-09-25, 11:30 PM

Originally Posted by VibrantViolet

People saying 0 will cancel are living in la-la land. They aren't necessarily bleeding subs, but people always quit at some point.

''Lalalala, I can't hear you, WoW is the best game evur, go play that failure GW2, Lalalalalalala''
Every fanboy response in a nutshell.

**VibrantViolet** · 2012-09-25, 11:36 PM

Originally Posted by SmokeBlader

''Lalalala, I can't hear you, WoW is the best game evur, go play that failure GW2, Lalalalalalala''
Every fanboy response in a nutshell.

Yeah, and look how many people picked "0"....lol. Just because people quit, doesn't mean "it's a failure". They just move on, or resub later. It's the fact with all MMO's, and especially to WoW in the past several years.

**igame** · 2012-09-25, 11:38 PM

Too early to call as the sub losses would mostly depend on the quality, frequency and quantity of patches.
Too early to even judge the expansion itself.

**RickJamesLich** · 2012-09-25, 11:41 PM

Personally, I'm kinda bored of this expansion on day one lol... I don't think I'm gonna stick around for much longer.

**mvallas** · 2012-09-25, 11:43 PM

Originally Posted by VibrantViolet

Yeah, and look how many people picked "0"....lol. Just because people quit, doesn't mean "it's a failure". They just move on, or resub later. It's the fact with all MMO's, and especially to WoW in the past several years.

The only company that can determine if it's a failure or not is Blizzard's bookeepers. And, sadly yes, even just keeping subs stable at 9 mil might be considered a failure... all depends on what their expenses are... 3 projects + a whole new MMORPG + 2 other expansions + any unknown surprises might mean they need more than 9 mill. This is why companies like Trion and the makers of Everquest and Guild Wars can sit pretty with 2 million as they don't have bloated insane budgets like Blizz does.

To further explain this weird disparity - look no further than the console game Bayonetta - it sold 1.35 million units worldwide... and Platnum Games considered it a failure and nearly closed down as they didn't make any of their money back. Most indie companies would consider 1.35 million an absolute triumph.

The ONLY reason they're still around and a Bayonetta 2 is happening is because Nintendo dropped a lump of cash on them in exchange to make the game exclusive for the Wii-U. If Nintendo didn't happen... the company would've been shut down forever and the license sold off or forgotten.

**Celista** · 2012-09-26, 01:34 AM

The only company that can determine if it's a failure or not is Blizzard's bookeepers.

Financial info for publicly traded companies is publicly available, you can look at the company's financial statements online. Discrepancies between actual financial data and released data would constitute fraud.

**Conscious** · 2012-09-26, 02:23 AM

Originally Posted by mvallas

Hate to burst your bubble... but the sub losses started right from Cata's launch quarter. They didn't just get "bored" of Cata... they hated Cata out the gate.

And need I remind you of Q2 2011's 800k loss, which was the 3 month period when Cataclysm launched in China - which also happened to be the quarter where the most subs lost came FROM CHINA?

The record breaking sales, and then the record breaking subscription losses never ceased to amaze me.

Which is why I'm positive that the those who did quit are that much more wary of coming back, hence we'll see low sales, and a low initial spike.

And then I'm going to go with another decline, purely because people are just playing other things.

Originally Posted by VibrantViolet

Yeah, and look how many people picked "0"....lol. Just because people quit, doesn't mean "it's a failure". They just move on, or resub later. It's the fact with all MMO's, and especially to WoW in the past several years.

Did you look at the other results? This sample size is predicting a loss by a landslide. And yes, Cataclysm was widely considered a failure, because people quit, regardless of their motives.

WoW's success has always been based off of subscription gains and sales, it only makes sense that it's failures are based off of it's losses.

**Awe** · 2012-09-26, 02:52 AM

I think too many people look at the expansions alone rather than look at WoW in general. Yes, expansions bring people in (they bring back some people who unsubbed to be precise). But overall the game got old even if Blizzard keeps bringing in improvements. For some people it will not matter but for others it will. Those people will be leaving and the only question is if Blizzard will be able to find new younger demographics to patch the losses. I still regard WoW as the best MMO ever made but I just cant feel the excitement anymore. I played it since 2004. No matter how cool content MoP brings in, it is just all "meh" to me becouse it is still same WoW. So even despite the fact that WoW is the best MMO ever made it does not mean that it is something that I want to play NOW. There are other MMO games on the market. They have the novelty bonus. I didnt played them for several thousand hours. And as of now they are much more enjoyable for me than WoW.

So kudos for WoW for what they did in the past but times are changing and I get hyped and enjoy playing something NEW rather than same old game. Adding new zones, talent systems or abilities does not change the game enough to make it feel like a completly new product. And there are more people like me around the world. And over time it will be more and more difficult for Blizzard to replace those burnt-out people and for younger demographics (people who are like 10 years old atm) WoW may simply not be modern enough. We will see what they will do with Titan. This is not WoW hating. Its just a normal reality. That being said, good luck with MoP for all those who enjoy it.

**Dch48** · 2012-09-26, 02:56 AM

I voted none because I'm sure there will be more at the end of MoP than at the end of Cata. Therefore, there will be a net gain.

**A Challenger!** · 2012-09-26, 04:16 AM

I hate to be "that guy", but I really don't even understand why people get upset enough to need a zero option. Does it really affect you that much?

WoW is, as far as we know right now, in a state of serious decline. This shouldn't matter whatsoever. If people can enjoy SWTOR, which only has about a million or so subscribers right now, then I'm pretty sure a couple million WoW subscribers will not be a detriment to the WoW community in the slightest.

Again, I hate to be "that guy", but people need to just enjoy the games they play; this isn't sports, no need to riot in the streets because your team is currently taking a hit.

**Moshic** · 2012-09-26, 04:28 AM

Originally Posted by Darsithis

I vote for 0 people having canceled.

I agree, I also vote for 1 million. After a million gained when the only other less popular MMO at the moment dies.

**Awe** · 2012-09-26, 04:32 AM

Originally Posted by Moshic

I agree, I also vote for 1 million. After a million gained when the only other less popular MMO at the moment dies.

You do realize that that only few in between MMO-s really "dies" so far? The biggest fail was probably Tabula Rasa. Star Wars Galaxies died becouse of licensing issues with Lucasarts. Then there was City of Heroes (?) recently. Aside from that, still many games working fine with smaller communities. Look at Rift, working fine, getting a nice expansion right now. EvE Online is running since 2003 and they only have like 300,000 subscribers but that is all they need to keep going. One day some other MMO will surpass WoW in subs number. Will this also mean WoW is "dead"???

**Celista** · 2012-09-26, 07:35 AM

Originally Posted by A Challenger!

I hate to be "that guy", but I really don't even understand why people get upset enough to need a zero option. Does it really affect you that much?

WoW is, as far as we know right now, in a state of serious decline. This shouldn't matter whatsoever. If people can enjoy SWTOR, which only has about a million or so subscribers right now, then I'm pretty sure a couple million WoW subscribers will not be a detriment to the WoW community in the slightest.

Again, I hate to be "that guy", but people need to just enjoy the games they play; this isn't sports, no need to riot in the streets because your team is currently taking a hit.

Yeah. Agree because I really don't understand that sort of player mentality either.

**Raxis** · 2012-09-26, 08:23 AM

What interests me is the ATVI stock price; even with the release of MoP it has continued its downward spiral. (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/atvi) Lots of selling going on which would leave me to believe that some insiders know about MoP pre-sale figures and do not expect a strong showing or up-swing in subscribers. That of course should worry any WoW player as we all know how Bobby K deals with franchises that don't perform for him...

Game wise; well I guess only time will tell if Blizzard actually puts out content at a decent rate, only patch 5.2 will show us for sure. If we see a small 5 or 6 boss single event style like DS or FL where the gear is the content then I believe WoW is doomed as a gamers game and will aimed towards the Facebook/Farmville crowd.

Who knows though; maybe for Blizzard less development work (ie content) and less subscribers could equal more profits. However I foresee a lot more mounts and pets in the Blizzard Store, easy money for Bobby K.

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