By the end of MoP

[TheJekyll]

You know it's been playable for quite a while right p:

Doesn't mean they have anything worth showing or talking about.

[Exroyal]

I wish they would keep quiet about Titan, then release a teaser trailer with release date. Completely left in the dark. That way people wouldn't know what to expect and in that way no haters/diehard lovers.

I think this poll is highly innacurate because i personally find that 0 subs lost is not realistic.

[Cybran]

I don't think it's possible for that many people to really lose trust with Blizzard. If they released Titan tomorrow I'd buy it.. why? Because it's been in development for 5+ years and they haven't said a word about it. The fact that there's zero hype from the outset means they're hiding something.

I bought diablo 3 and Mists. I will think really long and hard before i buy ANY other blizzard game.

[Zolascius]

Doesn't mean they have anything worth showing or talking about.

5 years.. longer than the amount of time it took for WoW to go through the whole development cycle, far longer before they started talking about Gw2 in blogs, publicizing it etc.

Come on, you really think they've got absolutely nothing after that long?

I bought diablo 3 and Mists. I will think really long and hard before i buy ANY other blizzard game.

Except D3 and MoP are both IP extensions, Titan is an original IP. And Blizzard's track record for original IPs is quite good.

[mafao]

I don't think it's possible for that many people to really lose trust with Blizzard. If they released Titan tomorrow I'd buy it.. why? Because it's been in development for 5+ years and they haven't said a word about it. The fact that there's zero hype from the outset means they're hiding something.

I don't know, after D3 I certainly lost fate in Blizzard. What Blizzard seems to do is try to force people into endless content repetition. This way, the content seems longer. Diablo 3 is a beautifully made game, but it only has around 10-14 hours of unique content (which you can replay on different difficulty levels) and you have to grind your ass off before you actually get to a content of appropriate difficulty. I honestly don't see any justification for putting such a high price on a game with so little actual content. Blizzard has become greedy and arrogant. They disrespect and manipulate their players by using cheap carnival tricks (as in carrot on a stick) to keep them playing their games, and they charge way too much for it. I don't see myself buying any of their games unless something will dramatically change.

[Callei]

Couldn't really do a tldr while at work on my phone so in a nutshell. Note to apple the 5 is still too small.

He lists the reasons why people left and is correct but he thinks this "overwhelmingly positive ingame response" will steady the ship.

If anything wow is following the product life cycle exactly as predicted. The numbers will still decline no matter how "overwhelmingly positive" the current users are at this moment in time.

If my argument seemed confusing I apologize for losing you.

Let me put it another way:

If the ingame response is overwhelmingly positive, there's little to no reason to expect large-scale sub drops. If people are happy, why the hell would they quit, barring the usual outliers like financial or time constraints? You can't use the forums to form an opinion on this topic, because by Blizzard's own admission the overwhelming majority of WoW players do not frequent these, or other fan forums, or the official forums. Gambling on listening to forum outcry is what lost them so many subs on Cata release, when they released overtuned 5-mans and normalized 10/25-man difficulty to cater to the people who spent all of Wrath from Ulduar onward demanding less-easy content.

As for my assertions of player burnout in Wrath contributing to the main source of sub loss, it's correlation with the sub drops really getting underway when ICC lasted for a year with no new content. Correlation isn't causation, but it's a strong starting point when looking at how long ICC lasted and when the sub drops really kicked in. The bit about Cata endgame is right out of Blizzard's mouth from Morhaime in interviews during Blizzcon, and Ghostcrawler in his Cata post-mortem--both of them admitted Cataclysm's endgame was too difficult for their target demographic. Ghostcrawler in particular ended up with egg on his face when he spent a month or so talking up Cataclysm's harder endgame on dev blogs only to see the expansion tank in record time.

Now mirror all that, with (personal anecdote incoming) Jade Forest General, Stormwind/Orgrimmar General/Trade, Wandering Isles General, and guild chat on several servers (I mainly play WRA, but also camped out in SW/Org on Boulderfist, Illidan, Medivh, and Moon Guard) have by and large been very positive in regards to MoP, with the usual 'hurr pandas' Trade trolls. I'd say that we'll see very few if any subs lost in the upcoming quarter, and if Blizzard continues delivering quality content like MoP release's, few if any lost all through MoP's life cycle, which would point to stabilization/stagnation instead of decline (meaning WoW has gained all the players it will, and should focus on them as its target demographic instead of potential new players like they did until Cataclysm).

[Durmindo]

500000 subs at least

[tseven]

Hurray all people who said 0/1mil.

I hope you were kidding.



Or didnt read the title.

[Ayonel]

Total swag, but without knowing turnover numbers, I'd hazard a guess that if difficulty is dialed back to just above Wrath levels(boo goo HC players) then with the greater number of dungeons and raids, if playability and replay value is good, they could do okay.

The real question you're asking is whether WoW is on the declining end of its lifecycle. Conventional wisdom since I started in 2008 has been yes, even though numbers grew significantly prior to beginning to decline. I know a lot of people were turned off by Cata for its difficulty and for the relatively limited content. While I haven't seen much of Pandaria yet, on paper it seems much bigger than Cata.

I was a Wrath-noob, but I liked it a lot, and didn't mind playing the same stuff over and over because the frustration level was low and I had lots of friends around.

---------- Post added 2012-09-26 at 03:00 PM ----------

I think Callei nails it. I point this out on other forums I frequent: this is a self-selected, tiny sample of the total game population, made up largely of hardcore and/or disgruntled players with an axe to grind. 90% of the players don't know about this place, another 5% don't care, and maybe 1% doesn't have anything better to do with their time.

The responses you get here will be inherently skewed towards predicting the game's doom, partly because they want to see it happen, though who knows what they'll complain about once it's gone.

[Elementalkin]

Speaking as someone who is thoroughly underwhelmed by the primary 'themes' of the expansion, I voted 0 subscribers lost. It might be more accurate to say less than 500k, but I sincerely doubt it would be over a hundred thousand lost, and that's being generous to your point of view and assuming there won't be a gain, your contextual statistics by damned.

Cataclysm lacked the addition of truly 'game changing' features until much later in the expansion, and even then only the LFR system stands out in any meaningful way, and that was really just an extension of the LFD tool. The various new features, from challenge mode dungeons, the pet battle system, and an entire new class, are not to be overlooked. They matter. I mean, they *really matter*.

Plus, you have to also consider the reinvigorated world PvP (and PvE too - world bosses). I'm just wracking my brain trying to think of a specific group of players whose wishes are not being catered to this time around, and right out of the gate to boot. I can't think of any. Maybe the people like myself who don't care about Pandaria, the Pandaren, or the horde vs alliance conflict, but that's about it, and those complaints are superficial.

[Oldschoolwow]

Let me put it another way:

If the ingame response is overwhelmingly positive, there's little to no reason to expect large-scale sub drops. If people are happy, why the hell would they quit, barring the usual outliers like financial or time constraints? You can't use the forums to form an opinion on this topic, because by Blizzard's own admission the overwhelming majority of WoW players do not frequent these, or other fan forums, or the official forums. Gambling on listening to forum outcry is what lost them so many subs on Cata release, when they released overtuned 5-mans and normalized 10/25-man difficulty to cater to the people who spent all of Wrath from Ulduar onward demanding less-easy content.

As for my assertions of player burnout in Wrath contributing to the main source of sub loss, it's correlation with the sub drops really getting underway when ICC lasted for a year with no new content. Correlation isn't causation, but it's a strong starting point when looking at how long ICC lasted and when the sub drops really kicked in. The bit about Cata endgame is right out of Blizzard's mouth from Morhaime in interviews during Blizzcon, and Ghostcrawler in his Cata post-mortem--both of them admitted Cataclysm's endgame was too difficult for their target demographic. Ghostcrawler in particular ended up with egg on his face when he spent a month or so talking up Cataclysm's harder endgame on dev blogs only to see the expansion tank in record time.

Now mirror all that, with (personal anecdote incoming) Jade Forest General, Stormwind/Orgrimmar General/Trade, Wandering Isles General, and guild chat on several servers (I mainly play WRA, but also camped out in SW/Org on Boulderfist, Illidan, Medivh, and Moon Guard) have by and large been very positive in regards to MoP, with the usual 'hurr pandas' Trade trolls. I'd say that we'll see very few if any subs lost in the upcoming quarter, and if Blizzard continues delivering quality content like MoP release's, few if any lost all through MoP's life cycle, which would point to stabilization/stagnation instead of decline (meaning WoW has gained all the players it will, and should focus on them as its target demographic instead of potential new players like they did until Cataclysm).

The overwhelming response ingame is because of the recency effect. This is a brand new toy that everyone thinks is awesome. It will pass the number show that. But don't take my word for it. You believe your opinion and stand by it. That's commendable.

I will bump this thread if I'm still using mmo-champ near the end of MoP. Then we can see if your optimistic view is correct or the numbers continue a downward trend like the past 2 years.

[Dch48]

I hate to be "that guy", but I really don't even understand why people get upset enough to need a zero option. Does it really affect you that much?

WoW is, as far as we know right now, in a state of serious decline. This shouldn't matter whatsoever. If people can enjoy SWTOR, which only has about a million or so subscribers right now, then I'm pretty sure a couple million WoW subscribers will not be a detriment to the WoW community in the slightest.

Again, I hate to be "that guy", but people need to just enjoy the games they play; this isn't sports, no need to riot in the streets because your team is currently taking a hit.

I completely disagree with the "state of serious decline" statement. While I do agree that even a 5 million base would still be very profitable and enough to keep the game going indefinitely, WoW is far from being in a condition that serious. I look for sub numbers of 10.5 million at the end of MoP and maybe even a peak of 11 during it's run.

I am one of those who had no problems with the last two content patches of Cata as well. The Firelands patch was excellent with a new hub, new pet taming challenges for us Hunters and a very good and challenging raid even in normal mode. I would say that Rag was a little too hard though and should have been toned down some. The only thing I found wrong with Dragon Soul again had to do with Rag in Firelands. It was odd that the main enemy of the whole Xpac was easier to take down than Ragnaros was. If they would have toned Rag down however, that anomaly would not have existed. All things considered, I would say those last 2 patches actually saved Cata after the big mistake Blizz made in ramping up difficulty in the initial end game content you saw after the awesome leveling experience. It was like being at full speed and raring to go and running straight into a brick wall. Yes, the 5 man Heroics were too easy in WotLK. I did most of them before even doing the normal modes, but the ones in Cata were far too difficult at first. They have said that the ones in MoP will be somewhere in between and that sounds good to me. I am really sick of reading how the last two patches of Cata were bad and were responsible for the decline in sub numbers when any thinking person knows that it was due far more to the combination of the launch of D3 coupled with boredom caused by the overly long wait for MoP to arrive. More than half of the ones who temporarily unsubbed will be back and from what I'm seeing and reading, maybe already have returned.

For me the biggest thing they did wrong in Cata was the combined raid lockouts for 10 and 25 man versions. They seem to be continuing that and I still feel it is a mistake.

---------- Post added 2012-09-26 at 05:42 PM ----------

I wish they would keep quiet about Titan, then release a teaser trailer with release date. Completely left in the dark. That way people wouldn't know what to expect and in that way no haters/diehard lovers.

I think this poll is highly innacurate because i personally find that 0 subs lost is not realistic.

It most certainly is not and there should be another option for up to a million gained.

[BenBos]

FACT ONE: Cross realm open world play/instances are now INDEPENDANT of player numbers.

So no matter if WOW gets to 11M+ after MoP or 5 M+ after MoP: the players will play with one continent wide player numbers.

So: the discussion is useless as of now. Realms won't play any role anymore in just a few months time.

Why do you think WOW haters are going on like mad on CRZ ? (they know ... which power is beyond that technique...)

FACT 2: On Warcraft realms there was already a huge increase in the last month (the game was back on March activity numbers that's over 10M.

FACT 3: Diablo 3 launched and had 11.000.000 sales in the quarter where WOW shed 1 million players...


---To sum it up: with the NEW programming techniques, WOW player numbers won't effect the game at all ... and ... not every year there will be a Star Wars MMO, a 5 year long hyped up GW game and ... a 10 years waiting new Diablo game without even a content patch for WOW;

End conclusion: Next conference call (Nov 2012) Morhaime will announce 11.000.000 subs worldwide.

And it will hold these numbers due to the Pokemon addition at least through the winter.

TLDR: the competition has already used ALL available Lores and BURNED them on subs failures.

WOW and EVE are the only ones with a CLUB fee these days.

[Pancaspe]

People saying 0 will cancel are living in la-la land. They aren't necessarily bleeding subs, but people always quit at some point.

And new ones ALWAYS come. WOW has sold 35 million copies. That means there is a tremendous churn. Some go, some stay. If more come than leave, sub numbers go up. I think MOP content is so good, Sub numbers will rise.

[rebecca191]

Maybe the people like myself who don't care about Pandaria, the Pandaren, or the horde vs alliance conflict, but that's about it, and those complaints are superficial.

LOL that's me, although I don't really consider it superficial when it's the entire main plot. Honestly I'd add 25m raiders in there. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up being last expac with 25m raids.

[BenBos]

And new ones ALWAYS come. WOW has sold 35 million copies. That means there is a tremendous churn. Some go, some stay. If more come than leave, sub numbers go up. I think MOP content is so good, Sub numbers will rise.

The last quarter losses were artificial with Diablo sales setting a new world record of PC game sales. So the 9.1 million is the end result of 3 'bombs" happening, the Star Wars bomb (now reduced to a blob), the GW2 bomb (now people saw those loading screens) and the Diablo 3 bomb (many WOW players didn't like it - but some did...)

So it is a no brainer MoP will settle at around 11M players as these bombs exploded but were just a timed hic up (with no new WOW content released in that time).

Watch my words: after playing the Pokemons ... I very much doubt the female players and pôst Pokemon younger players will leave.

[Flimsy]

The bonus Blizzard have at the moment is that unlike this year with the release of some major MMO titles (Star Wars: TOR, Guild Wars 2, TERRA etc) there isn't many challengers on the horizon the hard part as already been done to some extent with those games already being on the market. I think if Blizzard can offer content at a decent pace then the numbers will start growing again, it's upto them if they can deliver.

[Dhurn]

I'd guess around 2 million if the content is similar in quality to Cata. If they can create some really amazing raids I could see it being held to 500k-1m though.

[Exroyal]

It most certainly is not and there should be another option for up to a million gained.

Uhm ok, whatever works for you i guess.

[BenBos]

Agreed. Not giving an option for growth not only shows bias but invalidates the poll.

Bookmark it and repost when the next conference call will be held at the beginning of November...

You'll own the thread I guarantee !