By the end of MoP

[Exroyal]

The next call will be for Q3, in which DS was the main source of content. Wouldn't be surprising to see another loss then. And if early returns on MoP reviews are any indication, Q4 isn't looking much brighter.

Ah i see, but won't they count the subs gained from MoP in Q3? I imagine another 1 mill left since last call?

[Snakehead]

Agreed. Not giving an option for growth not only shows bias but invalidates the poll.

Blizzard directly influenced the construction of my poll because they have released declining subscription data for multiple quarters. If their data was not so "biased" showing a decline I'd be happy to include the add subs option but the numbers are headed for a consistent decline. Blame blizzard those biased fools and their biased downward trending statistics lol

[ShimmerSwirl]

Ah i see, but won't they count the subs gained from MoP in Q3? I imagine another 1 mill left since last call?

They will, and to be honest I think that is the main reason they released MoP here in the last week of Q3; it would have been an absolutely dismal quarter if they hadn't. I think we'll see a slight loss or no change in Q3 and a farily large loss in Q4.

[Deleted]

The next call will be for Q3, in which DS was the main source of content. Wouldn't be surprising to see another loss then. And if early returns on MoP reviews are any indication, Q4 isn't looking much brighter.

Q3 = July+August+September

That means a huge boost from all the people who bought MoP.

They will, and to be honest I think that is the main reason they released MoP here in the last week of Q3; it would have been an absolutely dismal quarter if they hadn't.

true.

[BenBos]

The end of MoP is in November????

Faster expansion release-end in history.

I know what you posted. But : if you really think that the world wide publication of MoP will NOT let the figures grow, you are worse than I thought.

So with say Korea launching tomorrow, China launching in October, guess what: the Diablo 3 influenced WoW figures will rise for sure.


You can already trace the UP trend on Warcraft realms (it is up to March figures before the launch even).

So : the OP was misleading: because if you go UP in this winter, the 0 growth possibility was already at fault.

Now even add this: GW2 WAS launched, SW TOR WAS launched, Diablo 3 WAS launched and WOW had NO content patch for 9 months ... Odd you think this downward trend will continue with a NEW WOW expansion and NEW game play (Pokemon says hi!) while NOTHING in the next year even remotely interesting incoming ...

What will launch in 2013 ? Mother's cookery MMO ?....

[Snakehead]

I know what you would posted. But : if you really think that the world wide publication of MoP will NOT let the figures grow, you are worse than I thought.

So with say Korea launching tomorrow, China launching in October, guess what: the Diablo 3 influenced WoW figures will rise for sure.


You can already trace the UP trend on Warcraft realms (it is up to March figures before the launch even).

So : the OP was misleading: because if you go UP in this winter, the 0 growth possibility was already fault.

Don't worry at the end of the expansion with the numbers still in decline I will pay special attention to your post and remind you of this "up trend" you claim will happen.

Watch this space.

[Kevyne-Shandris]

So it is a no brainer MoP will settle at around 11M players

Now I don't prefer to make predictions as I'm not schizophrenic or have a magic crystal ball, but that is true wishful thinking.

It's apparent from Cata the bleed began, which means the subs will go down as content is played through. Those who left due to the "l2p" incident will likely won't come back as long as Ghostcrawler is still around. Those who experienced Cata who didn't like the changes will probably not come back to stay, because the issues from Cata were't addressed in MoP.

These former players will keep up with the news here and there, but unless there's some management changes (like what happened with SOE) not getting them back.

It's a matter of trust. If a player feels the company lied or took shortcuts, it'll take more than empty promises to win back that trust. It's a mutual relationship, not one sided.

[BenBos]

Don't worry at the end of the expansion with the numbers still in decline I will pay special attention to your post and remind you of this "up trend" you claim will happen.

Watch this space.

I'll be glad posting Mark Morhaimes figures in November's conference call.

Those figures will be far better than 9 million and then what ? you start counting from 9 million (like you did in your post) or start counting from the new upward figure ?

Which simply shows you had a negative agenda in the first place ...

I'll repeat what I said above:

"GW2 WAS launched, SW TOR WAS launched, Diablo 3 WAS launched and WOW had NO content patch for 9 months ... Odd you think this downward trend will continue with a NEW WOW expansion and NEW game play (Pokemon says hi!) while NOTHING in the next year even remotely interesting incoming ...

What will launch in 2013 ? Mother's cookery MMO ?.."

[Snakehead]

I'll be glad posting Mark Morhaimes figures in November's conference call.

Those figures will be far better than 9 million and then what ? you start counting from 9 million (like you did in your post) or start counting from the new upward figure ?

Which simply shows you had a negative agenda in the first place ...

Posting figures from November? Wtf?

Do you not understand the point of this poll?

This isn't "what's the subs gonna be like in November guys?"

I was extremely specific in posting "by the end of MoP'" now if you know something we all don't have the information about like the end of MoP coming this November I fail to see your point.

That's like the fools saying cata was going to be awesome and old style raid difficulty would make the game great again basing their assumptions on numbers from Q1 2011 and completely ignoring the huge exodus of players after that quarter.

You see what I'm getting at?

Using numbers from November 2012 to prove that MoP will still be awesome in 2014 or 2015, etc is unrealistic and a little stupid. But here's a pretty graph for you.

[BenBos]

Not impressed.

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

PROVES that the 9 million number was clearly ONLY due to the 10.000.000 copies launch of Diablo 3...

The link shows the activity in WOW is already back on March numbers (10.2 million).

And this is even before the MoP launch.

So what is it? Do you use the NEW figures from Nov? or the figures from the May_June period ?

You didn't even know the "lull" was already over by late summer time...µ

Just check these IN game stats and WATCH the upcoming weeks )

Just be sure I'll post these in game activity graphs like you guys did it a year ago

[ShimmerSwirl]

Not impressed.

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

PROVES that the 9 million number was clearly ONLY due to the 10.000.000 copies launch of Diablo 3...

The link shows the activity in WOW is already back on March numbers (10.2 million).

And this is even before the MoP launch.

So what is it? Do you use the NEW figures from Nov? or the figures from the May_June period ?

You didn't even know the "lull" was already over by late summer time...µ

Just check these IN game stats and WATCH the upcoming weeks )

People resubbed for what they thought was the MoP 'pre-event' (instead they got the Failamore Scenario, nice marketing on Blizz part). Time will tell, but I will be shocked if MoP adds any subs to the game, I actually think you will see the playerbase be cut in half or even more by the time the next expansion (if there is one) hits.

[Snakehead]

Not impressed.

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

PROVES that the 9 million number was clearly ONLY due to the 10.000.000 copies launch of Diablo 3...

The link shows the activity in WOW is already back on March numbers (10.2 million).

And this is even before the MoP launch.

So what is it? Do you use the NEW figures from Nov? or the figures from the May_June period ?

You didn't even know the "lull" was already over by late summer time...µ

Just check these IN game stats and WATCH the upcoming weeks )

Up coming weeks?

Again Ben you don't seem to get the point this poll isn't about recent or very near future upturns it's about long term forecasts.

But I'll tell you what your Warcraft realms (highly unreliable btw) data is super awesome. You hold onto that little gem and at the end of the expansion we will see where we are for numbers.

Now Ben just to be clear that's the end of the expansion ok. That's not next week, or next quarter, or next summer, etc. The end of the expansion got it?

*crosses fingers he gets it*

[Karizee]

And new ones ALWAYS come. WOW has sold 35 million copies. That means there is a tremendous churn. Some go, some stay. If more come than leave, sub numbers go up. I think MOP content is so good, Sub numbers will rise.

So 75% of the people that bought it gave it the thumbs down?

I guess that kind of "churn and burn" business model explains why they have no problem breaking promises to their playerbase.

[Dazzy]

By the end, meaning defeated the last raid boss months ago now just waiting for the next xpac. Probably about a million, just like EVERY expansion, they'll be back.

Losses in the long run, maybe 150k

Players over the next 5 biggest mmos combined, still 5 million.

[Plundermot]

Are you arguing that the subset of players who use Xfire is significantly biased?

XFire, as impressive as it is, is about as biased as any games forum like this one -- extremely. Tens of millions of people play computer games regularly but only a tiny minority of us care about them enough to visit forums, browse Wikis or install software like XFire. We're the sort of people who spend 10, 20, 30 (or more) hours a week playing games, and therefore it's only natural we "burn out" quicker than your average player who plays for a few hours every weekend. WoW's decline on XFire is clear, but trying to extrapolate stats from that subset of the community into the population as a whole is very foolish.

The other thing to be aware of with XFire is that people who use it want to show off what games they're playing -- like all social networks it's very much a "look at me!" thing. There's nothing wrong with that, of course, but much like software that broadcasts what music you're listening to, it's very easy to switch it off if you don't want your friends to know you're playing something that's no longer "cool". After all, I'll bet 99% of the people on here who claim to have quit WoW years ago but still browse the forum on a daily basis are currently playing Mists (the alternative would be even more pathetic).

[BenBos]

Up coming weeks?

Again Ben you don't seem to get the point this poll isn't about recent or very near future upturns it's about long term forecasts.

But I'll tell you what your Warcraft realms (highly unreliable btw) data is super awesome. You hold onto that little gem and at the end of the expansion we will see where we are for numbers.

Now Ben just to be clear that's the end of the expansion ok. That's not next week, or next quarter, or next summer, etc. The end of the expansion got it?

*crosses fingers he gets it*

But you refuse to answer my question ?

WHICH number are you going to use at the start ?

If it is 9.1 M ... well everything points out NOW that this number is already upped in the pre launch (and even WITH GW2 influence).

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

is very clear on that.

So which number you will be using to "deduct those subscriptions" ? The May/Jun subs number or the upcoming number of this winter (that will be up and published in November on that Conference call ?).

Or to make it easy on you ... will you substract 2 M from 9M (already up by now) or 2M by the new number in November (probably 11M as it already shows a 10 M trend BEFORE the actual launch )....?

[Deleted]

When will the next sales quater be? you know where they discuss sub losses, or isnt there any left for this year

[Snakehead]

But you refuse to answer my question ?

WHICH number are you going to use at the start ?

If it is 9.1 M ... well everything points out NOW that this number is already upped in the pre launch (and even WITH GW2 influence).

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

is very clear on that.

So which number you will be using to "deduct those subscriptions" ? The May/Jun subs number or the upcoming number of this winter (that will be up and published in November on that Conference call ?).

I'll tell you what Ben you can pick the numbers we start with because I don't care. A decline will still be a decline.

[Kuthe]

There will be an increase.
/fin

[BenBos]

I'll tell you what Ben you can pick the numbers we start with because I don't care. A decline will still be a decline.

But the latest in game graph shows ... an increase ... even before MoP launched ...

)) Of course : another Blizzard game launched in that same period: one that sold 10.000.000 copies in May and June (you can see the influence right there on the graph).

http://www.warcraftrealms.com/weekly...hp?serverid=-1

BEFORE that: WOW subs were stable at around 10-10.5 million...

The graph shows the influence of D3. Nothing more nothing less... The latest report of 9.1 M was from that same period. You can surely see the UPWARD trend