I think you need to look at where those numbers are coming from. While it may have had the biggest gain in subscribers, it's very unlikely that those gains are new subscribers. Probably people coming back to the game to try out the expansion whereas the other expansions would have been, in the most part, picking up new subscribers. This is the first expansion on a decreasing subscriber base. The big question will be if they can maintain the subscriber count.Mists also increased subscriptions at the launch by 900,000. Looking at the gains in the first quarter for each of the other expansions, BC bumped the subscriber base by a 600,000, Wrath by 1.2 million, and Cata's launch saw a 100,000 subscriber decline over its first quarter in action. So numbers for sales so far look average and increased subscriber count is very strong, but they will need to maintain those numbers over this quarter before that can really be found in evidence.
They are not good. MoP sales are about 2/3 of cata. That's not good. The sky is not falling but they are bad enough for Blizzard not to give the 1 day sales and rather to give a 1 week figure that has no historical comparison. They arrested the subscriber bleeding but for how long?Those calling these numbers abysmal really are looking for any excuse to say the game is failing, and people calling these numbers amazing are looking for any excuse to trumpet the game's success. The reality is the numbers are typical, but encouraging.
Is this Digital & Retail?
Warlords of Draenor Release - June 24th 2014
(Just my own Prediction, It's not fact)
Slightly above my own expectations. Blizzard have reach their target, which was coming back at +10 millions subscribers and they deserve congratulations for this. Hard to say what will happend in the long run, but I would rather bet that at some stage the decline will restart. It's still an 8 years old game.
Yes, Wow is dead, it's only having more subscribers that all the other MMOs put togheter.
China is not included because the 2.7 million figure does not include their release.
70% or close to that of first month sales for previous expansions have happened on the first day, indicating the sales are absurdly front loaded. (which follows logically as first day sales include all pre-orders).
A larger percentage of early adopters than any previous expansion to be expected for the wider sales window.
All in all it looks like the numbers are, as I said, typical for expansion sales. You can split hairs about the data we have and the data we don't have, but the evidence shows early adoption is right around where it usually is, and subscriber gains are significant compared to previous expansions.
I think the comparison in subscriber gains using this quarters number is reaching because MoP was only live for 5 days this quarter, which is not enough time for most people to evaluate if they want to stick with it. I'll be interested to see what the subscription numbers look like next quarter. I think the numbers are encouraging though, because getting back above 10 million was more initial return than I expected.
Last edited by DisposableHero; 2012-10-04 at 06:01 PM.
Obviously it wasn't the sales of previous expansions but honestly that really doesn't matter. What will matter is if 6 months from now there are the same number if not more people subscribed and playing the game. There's always an initial comeback for each expansion. What makes the difference is if people tell their friends weeks and months from now, "This is really good and you should be playing it too!" or "I'm starting to get bored with it, I'm probably gonna quit."
Basically MoP wasn't the issue for sales. It's about patches 5.1, 5.2, and so on for subscriptions to continue. If the patch content is good and plentiful then WoW will be in a good place. If not and it's another ToC/DS patch of poor quality or ICC/DS lull in content, expect the numbers to drop again. As we've seen in recent articles, WoW accounts for ~25% in annual revenue for Activision-Blizzard so now more so than ever it is imperative for them to stop the continuing hemorrhaging of subs.
---------- Post added 2012-10-04 at 01:02 PM ----------
Either way, I don't suspect the remainder of the first week holds a candle to the first day and pre-order figures so I don't think the comparison of the numbers we have is as daft as some of you feel it is.