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  1. #421
    Scarab Lord Conscious's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Narveid View Post
    The fun thing is, if MoP manage to actually get back, and go beyond 12M some time again, all the haters would go "Its only chinese players! Doesn't count!", just wait for it XD I am just happy to hear good things about MoP from my friends playing it, some thing to look forward to when I get home XD
    That would be nice. Could finally say the game is growing again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Crummy View Post
    I remember getting shit in a previous post where I actually stated that WoW would get subs back for MoP.
    By people who said "NO, It's aaaaaall downhill from here"

    I don't even have to raise my middle finger. Blizz just did it for me.
    What is, 'Still at a net loss?' for 500 Alex.
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  2. #422
    Quote Originally Posted by DisposableHero View Post
    If you express the sales figures for each expansion as a percentage of the total subscriber base at the time, you find the following:

    Burning Crusade - 2.4 million first day sales, 8.3 million subscribers, 28.9% first day adoption
    Wrath of the Lich King - 2.8 million first day sales, 11 million subscribers, 25.4% first day adoption
    Cataclysm - 3.3 million first day sales, 12 million subscribers, 27.5% first day adoption
    Mists of Pandaria - 2.7 million first week sales (since we don't have first day sales numbers to look at), 9.1 million subscribers, 29.7% first week adoption
    Look at my post. I put the first day sales at around 2.2 million which would give 24.1% adoption.

    Mists also increased subscriptions at the launch by 900,000. Looking at the gains in the first quarter for each of the other expansions, BC bumped the subscriber base by a 600,000, Wrath by 1.2 million, and Cata's launch saw a 100,000 subscriber decline over its first quarter in action. So numbers for sales so far look average and increased subscriber count is very strong, but they will need to maintain those numbers over this quarter before that can really be found in evidence.
    I think you need to look at where those numbers are coming from. While it may have had the biggest gain in subscribers, it's very unlikely that those gains are new subscribers. Probably people coming back to the game to try out the expansion whereas the other expansions would have been, in the most part, picking up new subscribers. This is the first expansion on a decreasing subscriber base. The big question will be if they can maintain the subscriber count.

    Those calling these numbers abysmal really are looking for any excuse to say the game is failing, and people calling these numbers amazing are looking for any excuse to trumpet the game's success. The reality is the numbers are typical, but encouraging.
    They are not good. MoP sales are about 2/3 of cata. That's not good. The sky is not falling but they are bad enough for Blizzard not to give the 1 day sales and rather to give a 1 week figure that has no historical comparison. They arrested the subscriber bleeding but for how long?

  3. #423
    Herald of the Titans crakerjack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matchu View Post
    It...is? It increased by 900,000.
    If you want to be that arrogant to not acknowledge the fact that subs always increase at the beginning of an expansion, then I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you.

    Most likely the wisest Enhancement Shaman.

  4. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by crakerjack View Post
    WoW isn't dying? Then why isn't it maintaining or increasing in subs? Oh that's right, it's the only option left, it's dying. It's bleeding subs at a constant rate and I can bet you that after a couple months into MoP, you'll see how many people are still playing.
    Losing subs means dying to you? You have some twisted logic, and even if it loses another few million subs in the next few years it's far from dying, it's just losing subs but will eventually stagnate again, you can't deny that. Dying would mean that it's in the progress of of having to shut down the servers, which it'S clearly not, an MMO which will still maintain a few millions of subs over years is by far not dead.

  5. #425
    Elemental Lord Arbs's Avatar
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    Is this Digital & Retail?

  6. #426
    Slightly above my own expectations. Blizzard have reach their target, which was coming back at +10 millions subscribers and they deserve congratulations for this. Hard to say what will happend in the long run, but I would rather bet that at some stage the decline will restart. It's still an 8 years old game.

    Yes, Wow is dead, it's only having more subscribers that all the other MMOs put togheter.

  7. #427
    Quote Originally Posted by Archdruid Dehydrate View Post
    Is this Digital & Retail?
    Both combined.

  8. #428
    Scarab Lord Conscious's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Archdruid Dehydrate View Post
    Is this Digital & Retail?
    Yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Faklor View Post
    Losing subs means dying to you? You have some twisted logic, and even if it loses another few million subs in the next few years it's far from dying, it's just losing subs but will eventually stagnate again, you can't deny that. Dying would mean that it's in the progress of of having to shut down the servers, which it'S clearly not, an MMO which will still maintain a few millions of subs over years is by far not dead.
    No, but It can still be construed as declining. Especially if it doesn't hold onto these 900k subs.
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  9. #429
    Quote Originally Posted by Akka View Post
    Hello.
    Sales from Cata : DAY 1.
    Sales from MoP : WEEK 1.

    You're ill-placed to give advices about missing everything beyond the shiny numbers...
    Well, we don't have any information on what the sales were like on the first day, because that isn't what was released. The difference in time frame is significant, but mitigated by a number of unknown factors including but not limited to:

    China is not included because the 2.7 million figure does not include their release.
    70% or close to that of first month sales for previous expansions have happened on the first day, indicating the sales are absurdly front loaded. (which follows logically as first day sales include all pre-orders).
    A larger percentage of early adopters than any previous expansion to be expected for the wider sales window.

    All in all it looks like the numbers are, as I said, typical for expansion sales. You can split hairs about the data we have and the data we don't have, but the evidence shows early adoption is right around where it usually is, and subscriber gains are significant compared to previous expansions.

    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by Gray_Matter View Post
    They are not good. MoP sales are about 2/3 of cata. That's not good. The sky is not falling but they are bad enough for Blizzard not to give the 1 day sales and rather to give a 1 week figure that has no historical comparison. They arrested the subscriber bleeding but for how long?
    An expansion is a product you sell to your existing customers. It would be ignorant to look at the raw number in exclusion of the existing subscriber base you are selling to.

    I think the comparison in subscriber gains using this quarters number is reaching because MoP was only live for 5 days this quarter, which is not enough time for most people to evaluate if they want to stick with it. I'll be interested to see what the subscription numbers look like next quarter. I think the numbers are encouraging though, because getting back above 10 million was more initial return than I expected.
    Last edited by DisposableHero; 2012-10-04 at 06:01 PM.

  10. #430
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    Quote Originally Posted by dryankem View Post
    Who really cares??????? Seriously if the game is dying what does that change? Are you going to quit because other people aren't playing it? Some people enjoy skydiving, I think it's crazy but I'm not going to try and convince the person that actually does likes it that it's a waste of time. Even if the game loses 2 million subs a year the game is going to be the number one MMO for another 2-3 years.

    It's not like Blizzard is trying to drive people away, they are actually trying. If you have legitimate complaints then fine (ie. Rogue's do too much auto damage and their special abilities feel weak), but "WOW is dying and I can't believe no one will be realistic" is not.

    As I posted in another thread - If it's such a big issue go find the FOTM game and play it. There are no games that will continuously increase in player base, eventually they all fall so either play the game because you enjoy it or move on to a different game that you do enjoy.
    A sound voice through the mists!

  11. #431
    Herald of the Titans crakerjack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faklor View Post
    Losing subs means dying to you? You have some twisted logic, and even if it loses another few million subs in the next few years it's far from dying, it's just losing subs but will eventually stagnate again, you can't deny that. Dying would mean that it's in the progress of of having to shut down the servers, which it'S clearly not, an MMO which will still maintain a few millions of subs over years is by far not dead.
    You are currently aging... you can look at it as if you're just living or you can look at it as if you're dying. WoW is losing subs... dying is just another way of putting it... I'm not saying dead, because it's not... im using the verb... dying. It's in the action. I'm aware WoW can work with a couple million subs, but at the point you'd be lucky to get 5% of blizzards attention... when the subs drop that far down in that game, blizzard/activision will prioritize other projects over it.

    Most likely the wisest Enhancement Shaman.

  12. #432
    Quote Originally Posted by SamR View Post
    What did you expect them to sell before MoP launched? Were you predicting over 5 mil?

    The people who show up to spread doom and gloom on these threads are very predictable. It's always the same 2 arguments.

    "Look at how bad the numbers are!"

    or

    "The numbers should have been way better!"


    Easy cover for all the sub numbers threads.
    Nobody, not even the extreme fanboys if they're honest, would have expected for the expansion to sell worse than TBC. A poll a while ago even had almost 60% people voting that MoP would sell more and faster than Cataclysm.

  13. #433
    Obviously it wasn't the sales of previous expansions but honestly that really doesn't matter. What will matter is if 6 months from now there are the same number if not more people subscribed and playing the game. There's always an initial comeback for each expansion. What makes the difference is if people tell their friends weeks and months from now, "This is really good and you should be playing it too!" or "I'm starting to get bored with it, I'm probably gonna quit."

    Basically MoP wasn't the issue for sales. It's about patches 5.1, 5.2, and so on for subscriptions to continue. If the patch content is good and plentiful then WoW will be in a good place. If not and it's another ToC/DS patch of poor quality or ICC/DS lull in content, expect the numbers to drop again. As we've seen in recent articles, WoW accounts for ~25% in annual revenue for Activision-Blizzard so now more so than ever it is imperative for them to stop the continuing hemorrhaging of subs.

  14. #434
    Quote Originally Posted by Faklor View Post
    Losing subs means dying to you? You have some twisted logic, and even if it loses another few million subs in the next few years it's far from dying, it's just losing subs but will eventually stagnate again, you can't deny that. Dying would mean that it's in the progress of of having to shut down the servers, which it'S clearly not, an MMO which will still maintain a few millions of subs over years is by far not dead.
    WOW is definitely not dying but it is in a slow decline. The danger is that decline can accelerate. A lot of people play WOW because their friends do too. So losing friends in WOW could cause them to quit. It's not there yet but Blizzard will be very happy to be above 10 million again. It's just a matter of time until the decline starts again. It's essentially the same game. Loot progression. There is a whole chunk more content but if I look at how the average player is burning through content lately, it won't last that long.

  15. #435
    Herald of the Titans crakerjack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Retaliator View Post
    A sound voice through the mists!
    If blizzard wasn't trying to drive people away... then why did they screw up so badly during cataclysm? Almost all the community was against removal of rating requirement on PvP gear... they did nothing about mmr abusers... they didn't even reset the ladders when it was blatantly clear that people who had 52 wins and 24 loses at 2800 rating were cheating... but no, blizzard doesn't do anything. How about that 4.3 huh? Gotta love running DS over and over and over and over and over and over... so where again did you think blizzard was trying?

    Most likely the wisest Enhancement Shaman.

  16. #436
    Quote Originally Posted by DisposableHero View Post
    China is not included because the 2.7 million figure does not include their release.
    It doesn't work that way. The players don't buy the expansion, they buy game time. If the players know that the expansion is coming out on date X, they will buy time in anticipation of that date.

  17. #437
    Quote Originally Posted by crakerjack View Post
    If blizzard wasn't trying to drive people away... then why did they screw up so badly during cataclysm? Almost all the community was against removal of rating requirement on PvP gear... they did nothing about mmr abusers... they didn't even reset the ladders when it was blatantly clear that people who had 52 wins and 24 loses at 2800 rating were cheating... but no, blizzard doesn't do anything. How about that 4.3 huh? Gotta love running DS over and over and over and over and over and over... so where again did you think blizzard was trying?
    Because they'd intentionally try to drive customers away. That's a great business model.

    ---------- Post added 2012-10-04 at 01:02 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Gray_Matter View Post
    It doesn't work that way. The players don't buy the expansion, they buy game time. If the players know that the expansion is coming out on date X, they will buy time in anticipation of that date.
    Yes, China doesn't buy expansions, it won't affect that number. It will however affect the subscriptions numbers since the 900,000 gained since Launch was before MoP launched in China.

  18. #438
    Quote Originally Posted by crakerjack View Post
    If you want to be that arrogant to not acknowledge the fact that subs always increase at the beginning of an expansion, then I'm not going to waste my time arguing with you.
    If you want to be arrogant and not acknowledge the fact they increased, good?

  19. #439
    Quote Originally Posted by Gray_Matter View Post
    It doesn't work that way. The players don't buy the expansion, they buy game time. If the players know that the expansion is coming out on date X, they will buy time in anticipation of that date.
    I wasn't aware of that, but the subscribers numbers are also absent Chinese figures unless they are being extremely misleading in their sentence structure, which I won't put past them.

    Either way, I don't suspect the remainder of the first week holds a candle to the first day and pre-order figures so I don't think the comparison of the numbers we have is as daft as some of you feel it is.

  20. #440
    Quote Originally Posted by Dasffion View Post
    Yes, China doesn't buy expansions, it won't affect that number. It will however affect the subscriptions numbers since the 900,000 gained since Launch was before MoP launched in China.
    But that's my point. How many people bought MoP before the launch date? Yet those sales only get registered as day 1 sales. The same goes for China. The launch date is October 2 (it may be October 4 but that is irrelevant). The only way players in China can pre-purchase MoP is to go out and buy game time and they would most certainly have done this before the launch date so their numbers will be included in the 10 million regardless of how Blizzard words it.

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