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  1. #481
    Quote Originally Posted by mvallas View Post
    Weekly figures
    TBC: 2.4M Day 1 sales + ???Day 2 Sales + ???Day 3 Sales + ???Day 4 sales + ???Day 5 sales + ???Day 6 sales + ???Day 7 sales = ???
    WotLK: 2.8M Day 1 sales + ???Day 2 Sales + ???Day 3 Sales + ???Day 4 sales + ???Day 5 sales + ???Day 6 sales + ???Day 7 sales = ???
    Cata: 3.3M Day 1 sales + ???Day 2 Sales + ???Day 3 Sales + ???Day 4 sales + ???Day 5 sales + ???Day 6 sales + ???Day 7 sales =???
    MoP: ???Day 1 sales + ???Day 2 Sales + ???Day 3 Sales + ???Day 4 sales + ???Day 5 sales + ???Day 6 sales + ???Day 7 sales = 2.7M


    For future record:
    The Burning Crusade - 3.5M First Month
    Wrath of the Lich King - 4M First Month
    Cataclysm - 4.7M First Month
    Pandaria - ??? First Month
    So judging by those numbers sales increased by 1.1mil after day 1 for BC for the first month, 1.2 mil for wrath, and 1.3 for cata. So seeing as how its been increasing by 100k per expansion we can expact that trend to continue or at least be in the same ball park with 1.4 mil for the first month of MoP.

    So seeing as how MoP sales are the first week and not day like the others we can only guess that the number is somewhere around 2.3-2.6 mil which puts the monthly sales around 3.7-4mil. So what we see is that your looking at sales between BC and Wrath. Not a good thing.

  2. #482
    Quote Originally Posted by peterpan007 View Post
    WoTLK had a 12million subscriber base and 3.3 million purchased the upgrade

    Cata had 9million subscriber base and 2.7 million purchased the upgrade

    Considering Cata had less subscribers percentage wise it upgraded nearly the same.
    Is it really inconceivable that people who haven't played the last 9 months due to the terrible content and lack of content since December of last year bought the game to try it out. That means they were not apart of the 9.1 million subs of last quarter and only now are subs. Meaning they should not be used in your comparison of MoP sales to subs ratio. I don't know why this percent of the subs buying MoP is so wildly important but it's flawed.

  3. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by Fagatronics View Post
    Is it really inconceivable that people who haven't played the last 9 months due to the terrible content and lack of content since December of last year bought the game to try it out. That means they were not apart of the 9.1 million subs of last quarter and only now are subs. Meaning they should not be used in your comparison of MoP sales to subs ratio. I don't know why this percent of the subs buying MoP is so wildly important but it's flawed.
    I think the % of subs buying MoP gives you a rough idea of the NA/EU playerbase. and i mean extremely rough.

  4. #484
    I'm amazed at the contortions that haters make to make any wow news bad news, its almost on par with politicians but politicians can afford to pay smart people to think for them in party think tanks.

  5. #485
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeek Daniels View Post
    So judging by those numbers sales increased by 1.1mil after day 1 for BC for the first month, 1.2 mil for wrath, and 1.3 for cata. So seeing as how its been increasing by 100k per expansion we can expact that trend to continue or at least be in the same ball park with 1.4 mil for the first month of MoP.

    So seeing as how MoP sales are the first week and not day like the others we can only guess that the number is somewhere around 2.3-2.6 mil which puts the monthly sales around 3.7-4mil. So what we see is that your looking at sales between BC and Wrath. Not a good thing.
    Why would the trend continue when the other trend (rise in initial burst) went the other way? If we're looking at parallels then the increase over the month should be lower than wrath as well. I would go as far to say that since so many people are buying digital lately, more of the sales have probably already been bought than before -- it makes sense. Back then, people would be lining up and going out to stores, and it's an inconvenience really, but now most people are just buying digitally.

    There will be less sales over the next month than there were for the last 3 expansions. I would guess about 1 million.

    Edit: Actually no, because yea, the number they reported is first week, not first day. So probably another 500-700k I would say.
    Last edited by vizzle; 2012-10-04 at 07:31 PM.
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  6. #486
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray_Matter View Post
    The spin is in the 10 million number. The implication is that the 900k new subscribers didn't include any from China yet that is obviously not the case.
    Again what spin? Did they not say ALL MAJOR REGIONS? being china is half of wow subs that would be a major region right?

  7. #487
    I know the fanboys will see this as an excuse to say that WoW isn't dying.

    But these numbers actually once again confirm the decline. Everyone knew the release of an expansion would temporarily bring back some people, so surpassing the 10 million mark again was expectable.

    However, take a look at the numbers itself. 2.7 million copies sold? It's funny that they compare these first week sales against TBC, WotLK and Cataclysm first day sales. Except for TBC, the previous expansions sold more copies the first day than this expansion did the first week. This only confirms that the decline is continuing. The release of an expansion slows it down, but it will continue afterwards.

    I'm expecting 7 million subscribers by the end of MoP. Maybe I'm even generous.

  8. #488
    Quote Originally Posted by slozon View Post
    Again what spin? Did they not say ALL MAJOR REGIONS? being china is half of wow subs that would be a major region right?
    Why specifically say pre China launch? What value does it hold if the 10 million comes from all regions? The only reason to add that in was to imply that the 10 million figure excludes the subscribers from China. Why did they also not release the sales from the first day? Why did they chose to release only the sales from the first week? Those are "tricks" that marketing does to convey the message that they want conveyed. In other words spin.

  9. #489
    Quote Originally Posted by vizzle View Post
    Why would the trend continue when the other trend (rise in initial burst) went the other way? If we're looking at parallels then the increase over the month should be lower than wrath as well. I would go as far to say that since so many people are buying digital lately, more of the sales have probably already been bought than before -- it makes sense. Back then, people would be lining up and going out to stores, and it's an inconvenience really, but now most people are just buying digitally.

    There will be less sales over the next month than there were for the last 3 expansions. I would guess about 1 million.

    Edit: Actually no, because yea, the number they reported is first week, not first day. So probably another 500-700k I would say.
    im just estimating. it should be around that number. trends show that an increasing amount of ppl have been buying each expansion later in the month so even with lower inital sales it could still get more on the back end. but its still an estimate.

    Quote Originally Posted by slozon View Post
    Again what spin? Did they not say ALL MAJOR REGIONS? being china is half of wow subs that would be a major region right?
    I think what hes trying to get at is that the number of subs will not increase by much because of china next quarter like ppl have been posting because he belives the majority that were not playing started playing again around the same time MoP launched in NA/EU and were added to the sub numbers. I think the spin is that because MoP hadnt launched in china that there wasnt a significant increase in subs there when this guy thinks there was. So it makes it seem as if subs will go up after MoP launches in china when it wont go up by much because they are already paying.
    Last edited by Zeek Daniels; 2012-10-04 at 07:39 PM.

  10. #490
    Quote Originally Posted by DeadmanWalking View Post
    I'm amazed at the contortions that haters make to make any wow news bad news, its almost on par with politicians but politicians can afford to pay smart people to think for them in party think tanks.
    Why is everyone that disagrees with you on wow a "hater"?

  11. #491
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardstyler01 View Post
    I know the fanboys will see this as an excuse to say that WoW isn't dying.

    But these numbers actually once again confirm the decline. Everyone knew the release of an expansion would temporarily bring back some people, so surpassing the 10 million mark again was expectable.

    However, take a look at the numbers itself. 2.7 million copies sold? It's funny that they compare these first week sales against TBC, WotLK and Cataclysm first day sales. Except for TBC, the previous expansions sold more copies the first day than this expansion did the first week. This only confirms that the decline is continuing. The release of an expansion slows it down, but it will continue afterwards.

    I'm expecting 7 million subscribers by the end of MoP. Maybe I'm even generous.

    Might want to explain me, why should I care?
    All *i* care for is the question if i have fun, and thats what i have (again) after MoP hit, but i guess you need to be a sheep and follow the masses to be "cool" right?

    Couldnt give a damn about WoW declining or raising in nummbers into the Billions, because it does not change the slightest thing for me

  12. #492
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeek Daniels View Post
    im just estimating. it should be around that number. trends show that an increasing amount of ppl have been buying each expansion later in the month so even with lower inital sales it could still get more on the back end. but its still an estimate.
    You're looking at it the wrong way.

    The trend of the increasing sales of the first month is dependent on the trend of the increasing sales of the first day. First day sales increased for TBC, then Wrath, then Cata. First month sales increased as well. MoP is the first expansion where first day (not even first week) sales didn't increase, but fell considerably when compared to its predecessor (Cata). Therefore, we should not be expecting the first month sales to be following the increasing trend.

    I mean, I see it all the time with articles on Cracked and their views (being a writer there, I count it religiously). It updates every 15 minutes. You can always tell which articles will hit 2-3 million views just from the first 30 minutes of observing. That initial burst is the most important part.
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  13. #493


    Assuming sales rate are linear and same as Cata, I predict 3.4m in a month.


    Most likely sales rate are a power curve so if that was the case then launch day was ~2.2m and final tally at the end of the month would be ~3m.


    *Notice sales rates went down only in Cata but kept going up in BC/WotLK. Reflects the trends of subs going up in those eras and down in Cata.

  14. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray_Matter View Post
    Why is everyone that disagrees with you on wow a "hater"?
    I'm curious as to why this is as well.
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  15. #495
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fagatronics View Post
    Is it really inconceivable that people who haven't played the last 9 months due to the terrible content and lack of content since December of last year bought the game to try it out. That means they were not apart of the 9.1 million subs of last quarter and only now are subs. Meaning they should not be used in your comparison of MoP sales to subs ratio. I don't know why this percent of the subs buying MoP is so wildly important but it's flawed.
    Because it's a better--but not by any means perfect--way of seeing how MoP is doing based on current subscribers over a period of time versus other expansions. What percentage buys into an expansion is more more meaningful than comparing MoP sales to how many units are sold when Cataclysm dropped with a far higher subscriber base. That said, no one really knows much of anything without a longer time frame to measure. MoP is a week, the rest were days. And you have a fair point in that there were more people to come back at the start of MoP than in previous expansions. That said, that same effect happens to some extent at the start of every expansion so it's something of a wash but not entirely.

    In addition to this, while Wrath and Cataclysm came out during November-December, i.e. just before or directly in the holiday buying season while MoP didn't.

    If you want to make sales comparisons, a much more interesting one will be in mid-January assuming that 5.1 drops sometime during November. A new patch (if it's good) + holiday buying and good word of mouth could leave things in a very good place at the end of the year.

    Lastly, as I've mentioned a few times already, revenue/profits from sales will be higher with MoP due to the number of units they've sold digitally. Blizzard gets all of that versus the past where with a box sale, after expenses and retail markup they were likely getting 60%-70% of it. That's a big deal.
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  16. #496
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardstyler01 View Post
    I know the fanboys will see this as an excuse to say that WoW isn't dying.

    But these numbers actually once again confirm the decline. Everyone knew the release of an expansion would temporarily bring back some people, so surpassing the 10 million mark again was expectable.

    However, take a look at the numbers itself. 2.7 million copies sold? It's funny that they compare these first week sales against TBC, WotLK and Cataclysm first day sales. Except for TBC, the previous expansions sold more copies the first day than this expansion did the first week. This only confirms that the decline is continuing. The release of an expansion slows it down, but it will continue afterwards.

    I'm expecting 7 million subscribers by the end of MoP. Maybe I'm even generous.
    I agree with this. The numbers are simply mediocre. 2.7 million copies sold on the first week is really weak in comparison with the other expansions. I can already say, that the number of subscriptions are going to drop after the 3° month (around December - January), if the theme keeps on the original MOP content, I think it will drop even worst.

    Already the community of WoW start to realise how time/money consuming the game is. And start looking for better options instead of WoW. If blizzard drops a really nice content patch, maybe they will be able to save the game from losing more players in the following months (something that i hardly doubt).

    I think i made a good decision of leaving WoW since half of CATA. The fansites forums are still fun for me during free times on the office.

  17. #497
    Quote Originally Posted by MoanaLisa View Post
    Because it's a better--but not by any means perfect--way of seeing how MoP is doing based on current subscribers over a period of time versus other expansions. What percentage buys into an expansion is more more meaningful than comparing MoP sales to how many units are sold when Cataclysm dropped with a far higher subscriber base. That said, no one really knows much of anything without a longer time frame to measure. MoP is a week, the rest were days. And you have a fair point in that there were more people to come back at the start of MoP than in previous expansions. That said, that same effect happens to some extent at the start of every expansion so it's something of a wash but not entirely.

    In addition to this, while Wrath and Cataclysm came out during November-December, i.e. just before or directly in the holiday buying season while MoP didn't.

    If you want to make sales comparisons, a much more interesting one will be in mid-January assuming that 5.1 drops sometime during November. A new patch (if it's good) + holiday buying and good word of mouth could leave things in a very good place at the end of the year.

    Lastly, as I've mentioned a few times already, revenue/profits from sales will be higher with MoP due to the number of units they've sold digitally. Blizzard gets all of that versus the past where with a box sale, after expenses and retail markup they were likely getting 60%-70% of it. That's a big deal.
    5.1 won't drop in November. Be realistic -- when has a major content patch ever come out in the first month of the expansion? It won't drop until the last month of Q1, I can guarantee you.
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  18. #498
    Quote Originally Posted by vizzle View Post
    Why would the trend continue when the other trend (rise in initial burst) went the other way? If we're looking at parallels then the increase over the month should be lower than wrath as well. I would go as far to say that since so many people are buying digital lately, more of the sales have probably already been bought than before -- it makes sense. Back then, people would be lining up and going out to stores, and it's an inconvenience really, but now most people are just buying digitally.

    There will be less sales over the next month than there were for the last 3 expansions. I would guess about 1 million.

    Edit: Actually no, because yea, the number they reported is first week, not first day. So probably another 500-700k I would say.
    When I extrapolated the Cata figures I got a figure of about 440k more by the end of the month. The trend was something like this:

    Day 1 - X
    Week 1 - 25% of X
    Week 2 - 18% of X
    Week 3 - 8% of X
    Week 4 - 2% of X

    It drops off quite dramatically. So the figures from MoP would be something like this:

    Day 1 - 2.2 million
    Week 1 - 500k new - 2.7 million total
    Week 2 - 300k new - 3 million total
    Week 3 - 110k new - 3.11 million total
    Week 4 - 30k new - 3.14 million total

    In a way I hope that it does better because it does look like they did some good work on the expansion but the other side of me hopes that they are forced to change their dated model to either charge a subscription or charge for expansions, not both. They have already leaned towards the former with recent specials (come back to wow and get all of the expansions free or any number of specials that I received in the mail over the past year). While $108 million is nothing to be scoffed at, it pales in comparison to the $800+ million that they receive annually from subscribers.

  19. #499
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eggoman View Post


    Assuming sales rate are linear and same as Cata, I predict 3.4m in a month.


    Most likely sales rate are a power curve so if that was the case then launch day was ~2.2m and final tally at the end of the month would be ~3m.


    *Notice sales rates went down only in Cata but kept going up in BC/WotLK. Reflects the trends of subs going up in those eras and down in Cata.
    There's a lot we can pull from those graphs. Though I have to ask did you remember to put in day 1 values for every expansion? Because it looks like for BC, Wrath, and Cata you put the Day 1 values as Day 0.
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  20. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeadmanWalking View Post
    I'm amazed at the contortions that haters make to make any wow news bad news, its almost on par with politicians but politicians can afford to pay smart people to think for them in party think tanks.
    Strange, because I'm amazed at the contortions that fanboys make to make any wow news good news, its almost on par with politicians but politicians can afford to pay smart people to think for them in party think tanks.

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