Mop - 2.7 million sold in first week

[vizzle]

Because it's a better--but not by any means perfect--way of seeing how MoP is doing based on current subscribers over a period of time versus other expansions. What percentage buys into an expansion is more more meaningful than comparing MoP sales to how many units are sold when Cataclysm dropped with a far higher subscriber base. That said, no one really knows much of anything without a longer time frame to measure. MoP is a week, the rest were days. And you have a fair point in that there were more people to come back at the start of MoP than in previous expansions. That said, that same effect happens to some extent at the start of every expansion so it's something of a wash but not entirely.

In addition to this, while Wrath and Cataclysm came out during November-December, i.e. just before or directly in the holiday buying season while MoP didn't.

If you want to make sales comparisons, a much more interesting one will be in mid-January assuming that 5.1 drops sometime during November. A new patch (if it's good) + holiday buying and good word of mouth could leave things in a very good place at the end of the year.

Lastly, as I've mentioned a few times already, revenue/profits from sales will be higher with MoP due to the number of units they've sold digitally. Blizzard gets all of that versus the past where with a box sale, after expenses and retail markup they were likely getting 60%-70% of it. That's a big deal.

5.1 won't drop in November. Be realistic -- when has a major content patch ever come out in the first month of the expansion? It won't drop until the last month of Q1, I can guarantee you.

[Gray_Matter]

Why would the trend continue when the other trend (rise in initial burst) went the other way? If we're looking at parallels then the increase over the month should be lower than wrath as well. I would go as far to say that since so many people are buying digital lately, more of the sales have probably already been bought than before -- it makes sense. Back then, people would be lining up and going out to stores, and it's an inconvenience really, but now most people are just buying digitally.

There will be less sales over the next month than there were for the last 3 expansions. I would guess about 1 million.

Edit: Actually no, because yea, the number they reported is first week, not first day. So probably another 500-700k I would say.

When I extrapolated the Cata figures I got a figure of about 440k more by the end of the month. The trend was something like this:

Day 1 - X
Week 1 - 25% of X
Week 2 - 18% of X
Week 3 - 8% of X
Week 4 - 2% of X

It drops off quite dramatically. So the figures from MoP would be something like this:

Day 1 - 2.2 million
Week 1 - 500k new - 2.7 million total
Week 2 - 300k new - 3 million total
Week 3 - 110k new - 3.11 million total
Week 4 - 30k new - 3.14 million total

In a way I hope that it does better because it does look like they did some good work on the expansion but the other side of me hopes that they are forced to change their dated model to either charge a subscription or charge for expansions, not both. They have already leaned towards the former with recent specials (come back to wow and get all of the expansions free or any number of specials that I received in the mail over the past year). While $108 million is nothing to be scoffed at, it pales in comparison to the $800+ million that they receive annually from subscribers.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Assuming sales rate are linear and same as Cata, I predict 3.4m in a month.


Most likely sales rate are a power curve so if that was the case then launch day was ~2.2m and final tally at the end of the month would be ~3m.


*Notice sales rates went down only in Cata but kept going up in BC/WotLK. Reflects the trends of subs going up in those eras and down in Cata.

There's a lot we can pull from those graphs. Though I have to ask did you remember to put in day 1 values for every expansion? Because it looks like for BC, Wrath, and Cata you put the Day 1 values as Day 0.

[Snarebusta]

I'm amazed at the contortions that haters make to make any wow news bad news, its almost on par with politicians but politicians can afford to pay smart people to think for them in party think tanks.

Strange, because I'm amazed at the contortions that fanboys make to make any wow news good news, its almost on par with politicians but politicians can afford to pay smart people to think for them in party think tanks.

[vizzle]

There's a lot we can pull from those graphs. Though I have to ask did you remember to put in day 1 values for every expansion? Because it looks like for BC, Wrath, and Cata you put the Day 1 values as Day 0.

I think you're reading the graph wrong.

[Eggoman]

There's a lot we can pull from those graphs. Though I have to ask did you remember to put in day 1 values for every expansion? Because it looks like for BC, Wrath, and Cata you put the Day 1 values as Day 0.

Oops yeah looks like it (x=0 => day 1 value of expansion), so now my month is 31 days instead of 30. Either way I would argue its more about trends then hard numbers.

[Sprucelee]

LOL!

People really think "X Million" boxes were sold in a day previously, but not pre-orders?

And people honestly do not understand that the majority of the 2.7 this time around were purchased BEFORE launch and downloaded digitally? lol everyone I know got it at -720 hours, but are counted as "the first week" because of the wording of a press release, leave it MMOC to take it literally.... Derp?

It is amazing to see people take the word "day" and "week" and parse them as if they have any real meaning, when that first period is filled with pre-orders, either in box or digital form. Week versus week is the best comparison for a launch, and more importantly, month versus month 3 weeks from now is what will tell the true story.

Anyway 2.7 and back over 10 million is awesome. I predict 11+ in the near future. At this rate WoW will be strong another decade!

[yjmark]

I agree with this. The numbers are simply mediocre.

The numbers are simply mediocre? I find it amusing how people view an 8-year old game which is still completely dominating the market by a HUGE margin as "mediocre numbers".

The numbers are really amazing imho. The fact that WoW still has such a strong hold on the MMO market is just amazing. Of course the numbers are decreasing since the game is old. However, for an old game to be doing so well is really nothing short of amazing. I don't think there is another 8 year old computer game that can hold a candle to WoW and its "medicore numbers".

[Gray_Matter]

Assuming sales rate are linear and same as Cata, I predict 3.4m in a month.


Most likely sales rate are a power curve so if that was the case then launch day was ~2.2m and final tally at the end of the month would be ~3m.


*Notice sales rates went down only in Cata but kept going up in BC/WotLK. Reflects the trends of subs going up in those eras and down in Cata.

Take a look at my figures above. The sales curve is not linear. Just look at this page as an example of the sales trend:

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/38102/w...aclysm/Global/

You can't use the figures themselves but you get something like the percentages listed when you work it out and apply it to the 1 day, 1 month figures for cataclysm.

My chart would look something like this (warning, guestimates included):

[Huehuecoyotl]

Oops yeah looks like it, so now my month is 31 days instead of 30. Either way I would argue its more about trends then hard numbers.

the trouble is, your trends for previous expansions (well, certainly for TBC and LK) were for a game where the subscriptions were increasing in general. Cata, not so sure. they may have been pretty stable before everyone started to jump ship. we have no idea at this stage what will happen with MoP. the plan, we assume, is that the new features are designed to bring in new players. but as ive stated elsewhere, why would zynga game players want to spend $100, then $15 a month to get gameplay they currently get for free, with no weekly maintenance? and what part of MoP would bring MMO players back to WoW if they already left? more dailies than you can eat? pokemon lite? farmville?

the next 6 months will be very interesting. i just hope Blizzard dont start with the knee-jerk reactions to sub falls that they did in Cata. that seemed to make things worse. they need to get a solid plan, stick to it and have faith in it, imo.

[Zeek Daniels]

LOL!

People really think "X Million" boxes were sold in a day previously, but not pre-orders?

And people honestly do not understand that the majority of the 2.7 this time around were purchased BEFORE launch and downloaded digitally.

Im really not following your line of thinking. Pls explain what your getting at. Day 1 sales include pre-orders. Week 1 sales include pre-orders. If so many ppl bought digitally then doesnt that mean they had these numbers sooner? Why wait a week and give us week 1 numbers when u had so many ppl buy it "Day 1"?

The numbers are really amazing imho. The fact that WoW still has such a strong hold on the MMO market is just amazing. Of course the numbers are decreasing since the game is old. However, for an old game to be doing so well is really nothing short of amazing. I don't think there is another 8 year old computer game that can hold a candle to WoW and its "medicore numbers".

Yea the margin is not as big as its made out to be. Its not dominating the MMO market its dominating the Sub market. Swtor sold what 2 mil copies day 1? i may be way off on that, GW2 did the same right? 2 games where no one really knows how its gonna play out sold that many in the NA/EU market. Cata Sold 3.3 mil day one, so those 2 games are only 1.3 mil off the day one sales of an expansion with a solid foundation of players who know what they are getting when they buy the game. Its called Security. Now MoP rolls along and it sells 2.7 mil copies which means that alot of players who came in for cata or played b4 cata have not bought MoP. Now remember this is the NA/EU player base. so now GW2 and Swtor are only 700k off in terms of sales.

I dont think subs are going to go back up, i think they will go down in a month or so and flatten out again.

[Baladash]

I am still subbed but have to wait until tomorrow to upgrade to MoP. PAY DAY! I'm assuming thats how they only sold 2.7mil and have over 10mil subs. (sorry I didn't read the entire 26 page thread and if this was explained already, super sorry) long day

[Crashdummy]

Getting a game in to China gives you a lot of hoops to jump through, remember Blizz having to sanitise WotLK to keep in line with the regulations? Also you can not run your own servers, but have to have a Chinese intermediary who will pay royalties.

Still worth it, considering China alone holds 1/3 of the world population. Anything is worth doing to get access to on third of the worlds population maarket.

[MoanaLisa]

5.1 won't drop in November. Be realistic -- when has a major content patch ever come out in the first month of the expansion? It won't drop until the last month of Q1, I can guarantee you.

Oh, you're absolutely right that based on history, it may well not. And then again, Blizzard can read a calendar as well as anyone and figure out that releasing 5.1 during late November or mid-December (considerably longer than a month) would be helpful for sales around Christmas and plan for it.

I don't expect 5.1 to have any raids so it might happen. They're already promising to release details very soon. If the patch is truly about the main armies showing up in Krasarang (or wherever), that could be further along than anyone realizes. Whether that's a Blizzard 'soon' or a human 'soon' remains to be seen.

Basically, I'm not discounting entirely the idea that they could plan to do something like this. It would be smart marketing, provide something for those with expiring AP's to think about, would send a signal that they are planning on handling content releases more in the way they promised and have something new for commercials and advertising during the holidays.

[Eggoman]

the trouble is, your trends for previous expansions (well, certainly for TBC and LK) were for a game where the subscriptions were increasing in general. Cata, not so sure. they may have been pretty stable before everyone started to jump ship. we have no idea at this stage what will happen with MoP. the plan, we assume, is that the new features are designed to bring in new players. but as ive stated elsewhere, why would zynga game players want to spend $100, then $15 a month to get gameplay they currently get for free, with no weekly maintenance? and what part of MoP would bring MMO players back to WoW if they already left? more dailies than you can eat? pokemon lite? farmville?

the next 6 months will be very interesting. i just hope Blizzard dont start with the knee-jerk reactions to sub falls that they did in Cata. that seemed to make things worse. they need to get a solid plan, stick to it and have faith in it, imo.

I think my graph is close to best case scenario. Its basically saying IF NOTHING CHANGED then this is what it looks like. If people are less into WoW then numbers would be lower.

[LuminousAether]

Would have been higher if they didn't just forget to add content for a year.

It did pretty well considering a major competitor just came out also.

What's the major competitor? Guild Wars 2? That's not a major competitor. That's not really a competitor at all. For one, it's absolutely horrid. For another, it offers nothing to WoW players that would make them stick with the game.

[Sprucelee]

Im really not following your line of thinking. Pls explain what your getting at. Day 1 sales include pre-orders. Week 1 sales include pre-orders. If so many ppl bought digitally then doesnt that mean they had these numbers sooner? Why wait a week and give us week 1 numbers when u had so many ppl buy it "Day 1"?


Yea the margin is not as big as its made out to be. Its not dominating the MMO market its dominating the Sub market. Swtor sold what 2 mil copies day 1? i may be way off on that, GW2 did the same right? 2 games where no one really knows how its gonna play out sold that many in the NA/EU market. Cata Sold 3.3 mil day one, so those 2 games are only 1.3 mil off the day one sales of an expansion with a solid foundation of players who know what they are getting when they buy the game. Its called Security. Now MoP rolls along and it sells 2.7 mil copies which means that alot of players who came in for cata or played b4 cata have not bought MoP. Now remember this is the NA/EU player base. so now GW2 and Swtor are only 700k off in terms of sales.

I dont think subs are going to go back up, i think they will go down in a month or so and flatten out again.

Because no one cares except people like you on MMO? I doubt anyone even thought a group of rabid wow haters would spend hours parsing the two measures in an effort to predict its decline. Its pretty funny seeing people throw up excel graphs though, so I do thank you all for the comic relief.


The month sales, and quarter sames are all that will matter from a business perspective.

[yjmark]

Yea the margin is not as big as its made out to be. Its not dominating the MMO market its dominating the Sub market.

Subs are part of the MMO market. Separating subs out of a market that makes most of its money through subs is silly.

The reason that it keep those numbers is because a high number of players are addicted to the game, also because it's the "new" game and always the "expectation" they have to see a better game. But many players are already moving to other games, specially the hardcore gamers.

You don't know that for a fact. That is just your assumption. If a truly better game came along that captured the interest of a majority of the people, they would move to that. Look at what happened when WoW launched.

[Zeek Daniels]

Subs are part of the MMO market. Separating subs out of a market that makes most of its money through subs is silly.

Subs are a portion of the MMO market. Im pretty sure more ppl play free MMO's than sub MMO's. Also pretty sure most the money in the MMO Market is made through micro transactions.

[LuminousAether]

The reason that it keep those numbers is because a high number of players are addicted to the game, also because it's the "new" game and always the "expectation" they have to see a better game. But many players are already moving to other games, specially the hardcore gamers.

Bullshit. People are coming back to the game in droves, not the other way around. There is no "other" game in the genre worth playing.