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  1. #501
    Quote Originally Posted by dokhidamo View Post
    There's a lot we can pull from those graphs. Though I have to ask did you remember to put in day 1 values for every expansion? Because it looks like for BC, Wrath, and Cata you put the Day 1 values as Day 0.
    I think you're reading the graph wrong.
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  2. #502
    Quote Originally Posted by dokhidamo View Post
    There's a lot we can pull from those graphs. Though I have to ask did you remember to put in day 1 values for every expansion? Because it looks like for BC, Wrath, and Cata you put the Day 1 values as Day 0.
    Oops yeah looks like it (x=0 => day 1 value of expansion), so now my month is 31 days instead of 30. Either way I would argue its more about trends then hard numbers.

  3. #503
    LOL!

    People really think "X Million" boxes were sold in a day previously, but not pre-orders?

    And people honestly do not understand that the majority of the 2.7 this time around were purchased BEFORE launch and downloaded digitally? lol everyone I know got it at -720 hours, but are counted as "the first week" because of the wording of a press release, leave it MMOC to take it literally.... Derp?

    It is amazing to see people take the word "day" and "week" and parse them as if they have any real meaning, when that first period is filled with pre-orders, either in box or digital form. Week versus week is the best comparison for a launch, and more importantly, month versus month 3 weeks from now is what will tell the true story.

    Anyway 2.7 and back over 10 million is awesome. I predict 11+ in the near future. At this rate WoW will be strong another decade!
    Last edited by Sprucelee; 2012-10-04 at 08:01 PM.
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  4. #504
    Quote Originally Posted by Necrosaro123 View Post
    I agree with this. The numbers are simply mediocre.
    The numbers are simply mediocre? I find it amusing how people view an 8-year old game which is still completely dominating the market by a HUGE margin as "mediocre numbers".

    The numbers are really amazing imho. The fact that WoW still has such a strong hold on the MMO market is just amazing. Of course the numbers are decreasing since the game is old. However, for an old game to be doing so well is really nothing short of amazing. I don't think there is another 8 year old computer game that can hold a candle to WoW and its "medicore numbers".

  5. #505
    Quote Originally Posted by Eggoman View Post
    Assuming sales rate are linear and same as Cata, I predict 3.4m in a month.


    Most likely sales rate are a power curve so if that was the case then launch day was ~2.2m and final tally at the end of the month would be ~3m.


    *Notice sales rates went down only in Cata but kept going up in BC/WotLK. Reflects the trends of subs going up in those eras and down in Cata.
    Take a look at my figures above. The sales curve is not linear. Just look at this page as an example of the sales trend:

    http://www.vgchartz.com/game/38102/w...aclysm/Global/

    You can't use the figures themselves but you get something like the percentages listed when you work it out and apply it to the 1 day, 1 month figures for cataclysm.

    My chart would look something like this (warning, guestimates included):

    Last edited by Gray_Matter; 2012-10-04 at 07:58 PM.

  6. #506
    Quote Originally Posted by Eggoman View Post
    Oops yeah looks like it, so now my month is 31 days instead of 30. Either way I would argue its more about trends then hard numbers.
    the trouble is, your trends for previous expansions (well, certainly for TBC and LK) were for a game where the subscriptions were increasing in general. Cata, not so sure. they may have been pretty stable before everyone started to jump ship. we have no idea at this stage what will happen with MoP. the plan, we assume, is that the new features are designed to bring in new players. but as ive stated elsewhere, why would zynga game players want to spend $100, then $15 a month to get gameplay they currently get for free, with no weekly maintenance? and what part of MoP would bring MMO players back to WoW if they already left? more dailies than you can eat? pokemon lite? farmville?

    the next 6 months will be very interesting. i just hope Blizzard dont start with the knee-jerk reactions to sub falls that they did in Cata. that seemed to make things worse. they need to get a solid plan, stick to it and have faith in it, imo.
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    The volume of new game features and content in MoP is a direct consequence of people cancelling subscriptions during Cataclysm. You're welcome.

  7. #507
    Quote Originally Posted by Sprucelee View Post
    LOL!

    People really think "X Million" boxes were sold in a day previously, but not pre-orders?

    And people honestly do not understand that the majority of the 2.7 this time around were purchased BEFORE launch and downloaded digitally.
    Im really not following your line of thinking. Pls explain what your getting at. Day 1 sales include pre-orders. Week 1 sales include pre-orders. If so many ppl bought digitally then doesnt that mean they had these numbers sooner? Why wait a week and give us week 1 numbers when u had so many ppl buy it "Day 1"?

    Quote Originally Posted by yjmark View Post
    The numbers are really amazing imho. The fact that WoW still has such a strong hold on the MMO market is just amazing. Of course the numbers are decreasing since the game is old. However, for an old game to be doing so well is really nothing short of amazing. I don't think there is another 8 year old computer game that can hold a candle to WoW and its "medicore numbers".
    Yea the margin is not as big as its made out to be. Its not dominating the MMO market its dominating the Sub market. Swtor sold what 2 mil copies day 1? i may be way off on that, GW2 did the same right? 2 games where no one really knows how its gonna play out sold that many in the NA/EU market. Cata Sold 3.3 mil day one, so those 2 games are only 1.3 mil off the day one sales of an expansion with a solid foundation of players who know what they are getting when they buy the game. Its called Security. Now MoP rolls along and it sells 2.7 mil copies which means that alot of players who came in for cata or played b4 cata have not bought MoP. Now remember this is the NA/EU player base. so now GW2 and Swtor are only 700k off in terms of sales.

    I dont think subs are going to go back up, i think they will go down in a month or so and flatten out again.
    Last edited by Zeek Daniels; 2012-10-04 at 08:05 PM.

  8. #508
    I am still subbed but have to wait until tomorrow to upgrade to MoP. PAY DAY! I'm assuming thats how they only sold 2.7mil and have over 10mil subs. (sorry I didn't read the entire 26 page thread and if this was explained already, super sorry) long day

  9. #509
    Quote Originally Posted by Dhrizzle View Post
    Getting a game in to China gives you a lot of hoops to jump through, remember Blizz having to sanitise WotLK to keep in line with the regulations? Also you can not run your own servers, but have to have a Chinese intermediary who will pay royalties.
    Still worth it, considering China alone holds 1/3 of the world population. Anything is worth doing to get access to on third of the worlds population maarket.

  10. #510
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    Quote Originally Posted by vizzle View Post
    5.1 won't drop in November. Be realistic -- when has a major content patch ever come out in the first month of the expansion? It won't drop until the last month of Q1, I can guarantee you.
    Oh, you're absolutely right that based on history, it may well not. And then again, Blizzard can read a calendar as well as anyone and figure out that releasing 5.1 during late November or mid-December (considerably longer than a month) would be helpful for sales around Christmas and plan for it.

    I don't expect 5.1 to have any raids so it might happen. They're already promising to release details very soon. If the patch is truly about the main armies showing up in Krasarang (or wherever), that could be further along than anyone realizes. Whether that's a Blizzard 'soon' or a human 'soon' remains to be seen.

    Basically, I'm not discounting entirely the idea that they could plan to do something like this. It would be smart marketing, provide something for those with expiring AP's to think about, would send a signal that they are planning on handling content releases more in the way they promised and have something new for commercials and advertising during the holidays.
    Last edited by MoanaLisa; 2012-10-04 at 08:03 PM.
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  11. #511
    Quote Originally Posted by yjmark View Post
    The numbers are simply mediocre? I find it amusing how people view an 8-year old game which is still completely dominating the market by a HUGE margin as "mediocre numbers".

    The numbers are really amazing imho. The fact that WoW still has such a strong hold on the MMO market is just amazing. Of course the numbers are decreasing since the game is old. However, for an old game to be doing so well is really nothing short of amazing. I don't think there is another 8 year old computer game that can hold a candle to WoW and its "medicore numbers".
    The reason that it keep those numbers is because a high number of players are addicted to the game, also because it's the "new" game and always the "expectation" they have to see a better game. But many players are already moving to other games, specially the hardcore gamers.

  12. #512
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    the trouble is, your trends for previous expansions (well, certainly for TBC and LK) were for a game where the subscriptions were increasing in general. Cata, not so sure. they may have been pretty stable before everyone started to jump ship. we have no idea at this stage what will happen with MoP. the plan, we assume, is that the new features are designed to bring in new players. but as ive stated elsewhere, why would zynga game players want to spend $100, then $15 a month to get gameplay they currently get for free, with no weekly maintenance? and what part of MoP would bring MMO players back to WoW if they already left? more dailies than you can eat? pokemon lite? farmville?

    the next 6 months will be very interesting. i just hope Blizzard dont start with the knee-jerk reactions to sub falls that they did in Cata. that seemed to make things worse. they need to get a solid plan, stick to it and have faith in it, imo.
    I think my graph is close to best case scenario. Its basically saying IF NOTHING CHANGED then this is what it looks like. If people are less into WoW then numbers would be lower.

  13. #513
    Quote Originally Posted by Lassira View Post
    Would have been higher if they didn't just forget to add content for a year.

    It did pretty well considering a major competitor just came out also.
    What's the major competitor? Guild Wars 2? That's not a major competitor. That's not really a competitor at all. For one, it's absolutely horrid. For another, it offers nothing to WoW players that would make them stick with the game.

  14. #514
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeek Daniels View Post
    Im really not following your line of thinking. Pls explain what your getting at. Day 1 sales include pre-orders. Week 1 sales include pre-orders. If so many ppl bought digitally then doesnt that mean they had these numbers sooner? Why wait a week and give us week 1 numbers when u had so many ppl buy it "Day 1"?


    Yea the margin is not as big as its made out to be. Its not dominating the MMO market its dominating the Sub market. Swtor sold what 2 mil copies day 1? i may be way off on that, GW2 did the same right? 2 games where no one really knows how its gonna play out sold that many in the NA/EU market. Cata Sold 3.3 mil day one, so those 2 games are only 1.3 mil off the day one sales of an expansion with a solid foundation of players who know what they are getting when they buy the game. Its called Security. Now MoP rolls along and it sells 2.7 mil copies which means that alot of players who came in for cata or played b4 cata have not bought MoP. Now remember this is the NA/EU player base. so now GW2 and Swtor are only 700k off in terms of sales.

    I dont think subs are going to go back up, i think they will go down in a month or so and flatten out again.
    Because no one cares except people like you on MMO? I doubt anyone even thought a group of rabid wow haters would spend hours parsing the two measures in an effort to predict its decline. Its pretty funny seeing people throw up excel graphs though, so I do thank you all for the comic relief.


    The month sales, and quarter sames are all that will matter from a business perspective.
    Last edited by Sprucelee; 2012-10-04 at 08:23 PM.
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  15. #515
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeek Daniels View Post
    Yea the margin is not as big as its made out to be. Its not dominating the MMO market its dominating the Sub market.
    Subs are part of the MMO market. Separating subs out of a market that makes most of its money through subs is silly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Necrosaro123 View Post
    The reason that it keep those numbers is because a high number of players are addicted to the game, also because it's the "new" game and always the "expectation" they have to see a better game. But many players are already moving to other games, specially the hardcore gamers.
    You don't know that for a fact. That is just your assumption. If a truly better game came along that captured the interest of a majority of the people, they would move to that. Look at what happened when WoW launched.

  16. #516
    Quote Originally Posted by yjmark View Post
    Subs are part of the MMO market. Separating subs out of a market that makes most of its money through subs is silly.
    Subs are a portion of the MMO market. Im pretty sure more ppl play free MMO's than sub MMO's. Also pretty sure most the money in the MMO Market is made through micro transactions.

  17. #517
    Quote Originally Posted by Necrosaro123 View Post
    The reason that it keep those numbers is because a high number of players are addicted to the game, also because it's the "new" game and always the "expectation" they have to see a better game. But many players are already moving to other games, specially the hardcore gamers.
    Bullshit. People are coming back to the game in droves, not the other way around. There is no "other" game in the genre worth playing.

  18. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kisho View Post
    Hm. Can't figure out if that includes digital sales or not.

    At any rate, that sounds about what I'd expect: Cataclysm sold 3.3 million to start with, so a slight decline to go with the drop in subscriber numbers only makes sense. It's still a very strong amount, so congratulations to Blizzard!
    TBH I find 2.7M to be a pretty low number. I feel like it doesn't include digital sales, but Cataclysm did start with more people, so... idk.

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  19. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dragon9870 View Post
    TBH I find 2.7M to be a pretty low number. I feel like it doesn't include digital sales, but Cataclysm did start with more people, so... idk.
    Why would they not though? That makes no sense. Are they gonna come out tmmrw and say "YOU GUYS WERE TROLLED HERES THE DIGITAL" I don't get that. Look I don't want to be that guy but it's a stretch agreed?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  20. #520
    Quote Originally Posted by Zeek Daniels View Post
    Subs are a portion of the MMO market. Im pretty sure more ppl play free MMO's than sub MMO's. Also pretty sure most the money in the MMO Market is made through micro transactions.
    So you think there are F2P MMOs making more money than WoW? I'd be curious as to where you saw that info.

    Remember - games are made to make money. Whether it is subs, micro transactions, sales, etc... They are all rolled into the total money that a game makes. Ignoring any major ones of them is basically turning a blind eye on the parts you don't want to look at (even though they are generally the most important part).

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