Mop - 2.7 million sold in first week

[Wowalixi]

You make a lot of assumptions and claim I'm saying a whole lot more than I actually am. My point is very narrow and very specific. Subscriptions in US/EU and Asia are dramatically different products. My carnival analogy spoke simply to that to allow people to disconnect emotionally from WoW.

As far as how Blizzard runs shop with the data it has and what it chooses to publish that's its call, its a grown company and can make its own decisions. We however can criticize what it does. It chooses to lump them together and call them all subscriptions -- ok that's fine. I and others claim that its a bad term and I give my reasons.

As for your other points. An analogy is merely an analogy and is used to help gain understanding about a particular concept (the two different products in this case) -- nothing about facts or false facts here. No, I don't care about Blizzard making everyone qualify under a certain criterion. They like many companies sell different things -- their published data is lacking detail. As for the little green checkmark and whatever else you think they see, I claim you may actually be the one with "limited or no knowledge" about such things. Companies collect and use tremendous amounts of data for analytics. It's Blizzard's call how they run shop, but I am certain their investors would be horrified if they simply ignored their ability to use this data. As for the we deserve to know argument, well people are using the information that is published to the investors. These forums are merely a place where we discuss things, but the information we are discussing comes from the same data investors get. Bottom line, you bring up a whole bunch of things that are irrelevant to the point I'm making. Ultimately it even seems like you agree with me.

I don't agree with you in the least bit. I don't see anything wrong with the way Blizzard publishes their subscription numbers, and think it's ludicrous for you to expect them to divulge intimate details about the inner working of the company. What they choose to push out and call subscriptions is clearly defined and has been since the time WoW started setting records. How many other MMOs can you say even boast that reputation? Many MMOs don't even publish their subscription numbers for the public and if so they are incredibly vague. (I still remember SW:TOR bloating their initial subscription numbers by including people who were still on a free month, since it didn't fully release until December 20th. They boasted an amazing 2 million subscriptions at the time! Well no duh, because every single person who bought the game had a free month of playtime!) My primary point is that we as players ultimately have no stake in the numbers, and many don't understand them, so we apply false meaning to them to make ourselves feel important, whether for good or bad. Too much attention is being drawn to a simple number that is bound to be vague due to the ways Blizzard chooses to simplify it.

You're stating that Blizzard needs to differentiate between apples and oranges. I'm stating that it doesn't matter, because subscriptions are just a scapegoat, a number to make players feel proud and important. No real investor would pay attention to subscriptions.

Just to make things clearer, here's an example:

Say your friend comes to you and asks you for $100. He says it's for a good investment, that he's developing a mobile app or something, whatever you want to make up, and promises to pay you back DOUBLE what you loaned him. Now you know your friend, you know he's trustworthy, blah blah, so you cut him a check for $100.

Two months later he comes back and gives you TRIPLE what you invested him. He says that his app was better than he expected, and he reaped more than he thought that he would. Would you then start demanding that he give you explicit details of how his app sold? Would you want to know how much people paid for it? Would you ask him how much of that was selling advertisements in the app? If his app had a premium and a free option, would you demand he break it down for you how much of each he sold? Or would you just be happy if he told you how much he had earned off the app?

All an investor cares about is the money. They don't care about finicky details that are defined by the corporation. They don't care whether it's a premium account, or a bonus account, or a collector's account, or a free account. They just care that their investment is returned and that the company they are investing in is boasting solid profits, etc.

It's a loose example, I know, but I hope it just pushes across the point I'm trying to make. Money is money, profits are profits. Ignore the little number called "subscriptions" for a bit, and just focus on the fact that WoW has been and will be, for awhile, the most financially successful MMORPG of all time.

[Zdrasti]

You're stating that Blizzard needs to differentiate between apples and oranges. I'm stating that it doesn't matter, because subscriptions are just a scapegoat, a number to make players feel proud and important. No real investor would pay attention to subscriptions.

I'll let you think that one through one more time.

[Wowalixi]

I'll let you think that one through one more time.

Um, great? No details or arguments or anything?

If you're superior, why do you bother posting on these forums? Clearly you know everything that you need to know about this topic already.

[Zdrasti]

Um, great? No details or arguments or anything?

If you're superior, why do you bother posting on these forums? Clearly you know everything that you need to know about this topic already.

Again I never said I'm superior, you're just putting words in my mouth. People make silly mistakes all the time, especially when they're arguing. You made such a silly mistake and I gave you the chance to correct it. I'll target it even more closely so you can correct your statement or if you insist, you can stand by it.

"No real investor would pay attention to subscriptions."

[Zeek Daniels]

so all we know for sure is that there are less that 10 million people playing WoW.

[Huehuecoyotl]

I seriously doubt you're a statistical analyst, and if so, I would never hire you. If myself, a simple layman, can tell where the difference falls in those numbers, hopefully someone who is trained to analyze statistics could figure it out.

the fact you are saying that you understand the numbers proves that you dont know what you are talking about. i can tell you for a fact that you cant; because quite simply you dont have sufficient data, Blizzard doesnt provide it to the general public, even when a chunk of that public are notionally the company owners.

what Blizzard calls "subscribers" for a given period includes numbers for the west, which are subscribers in the sense that they are paying a regular fee, and the east, who work on an hourly pay to play basis. each western subscription represents a substantially larger income than the average eastern player. it also includes people who were only subscribed for a single day in the quarter (in the west) or who played for only a single hour in the quarter (in the east). it includes people who are known to be "reliable" subscribers, and those who Blizzard can see will play for a defined period after each expansion or major content drop, then walk away from the game for a period of time. it contains people who log on every day, and those who only play a couple of times a week, for raids.

Blizzard have access to data that allows them to evaluate the health of the game, and see the effect of their efforts on demographics within their subscribers. we dont know this breakdown (they have never released this level of data) and we dont know how it is changing over time. all we have is conjecture and supposition, but its a fun thing to do, if you like that sort of thing.

it does make a mockery of either side stating that they know what is going on based on the information available to the general public, however. there may be a million more people playing since MoP dropped, but that may hide a fall in western subscriptions of a million, with a 2 million rise in chinese players using korean game servers. great for the numbers, terrible for income. or it may be the complete opposite, with a huge rise in western subscriptions while all the chinese players stop using the korean versions and wait for MoP to start in their own countries.

the truth, i suspect, lies somewhere between the two. because if the west had improved that much i suspect Blizzards PR department would be trumpeting it.

as for your veiled insult towards me, i would offer this retort; if your post represents your understanding of statistics, and their analysis, then trust me, i wouldnt dream of working for you.

[Dhrizzle]

WoW is amazingly popular in Asia and that's a great accomplishment. However, it is not the point. The point is that Chinese "subs" are vastly different from other "subs" to the point that they really shouldn't be called subs at all.

Let me give you an analogy. Carnivals usually have two means by which you can go on the rides. You can buy tickets and each ride costs a certain number of tickets. Alternately you can buy a wrist band, hand stamp, etc that lets you ride all day. The latter is like the WoW subscription model for US/EU whereas the former is like the Chinese model. Blizzard however lumps them together and what is more, they call them both subscriptions. This would be like the carnival lumping wrist bands and ticket sales together and calling them all wrist band sales.

There's two things to complain about here. First you shouldn't lump apples and oranges together. Second, if you choose to lump them together, you shouldn't call the combined objects apples.

We have day-pass users, and we have pay-per-ride people, the number Blizzard reports is how many people have visited their park. It doesn't matter if you think they're too poor or too foreign to count as "real" people, the important thing is that many people have gone to Blizzard to have a good time.

If you want to get in to the financial nitty-gritty there are lots of other numbers in the quarterly reports, the 10 million number is just a ball-park figure of how many people have played WoW in the last month.

[Zdrasti]

We have day-pass users, and we have pay-per-ride people, the number Blizzard reports is how many people have visited their park. It doesn't matter if you think they're too poor or too foreign to count as "real" people, the important thing is that many people have gone to Blizzard to have a good time.

I never said anything about not counting them as "real" people, you have me confused with others whose statements border on racism. That being said, I guess I should thank you for echoing my post?

[Snowraven]

The volume of new game features and content in MoP is a direct consequence of people cancelling subscriptions during Cataclysm. You're welcome.

Just wanted to tell you I fully agree with your signature. It truly is. Hopefully for the people playing they still get lots of content and it isn't just a "buff" at start of expansion to lure unsuspecting people (because if it is, it kind of worked).

[Kangodo]

so all we know for sure is that there are less that 10 million people playing WoW.

All we know for sure? No, we aren't.
The only numbers we are aware of tell us it's over 10 million.
You can keep ignoring that all you want, but that doesn't make you right.

I'll let you think that one through one more time.

He has a point. An investor looks at the money and everything.
They'd rather have 2 million subscriptions than 10 million if that would generate more income.

[MoanaLisa]

Again I never said I'm superior, you're just putting words in my mouth. People make silly mistakes all the time, especially when they're arguing. You made such a silly mistake and I gave you the chance to correct it. I'll target it even more closely so you can correct your statement or if you insist, you can stand by it.

"No real investor would pay attention to subscriptions."

You could add the word 'just' in there in front of subscriptions. But the point he makes is true. Losing 2,000,000 subscriptions in China has a much different impact on the information that an investor would look at first than losing 2,000,000 subscriptions in US/EU. So a smart investor wouldn't necessarily pay that much attention to just subscriptions. Same goes for gains: gaining 2,000,000 in US/EU will have a larger impact than 2,000,000 in China. So subscriptions are an incomplete and bad methodology for determining health of a company. D3 matters. So does SCII. So does COD for that matter since investors invest in ACTV. I'll get to that in a second. No one here ever talks about that when yakking on endlessly about subscriptions being up or down. Before anyone screams about what a failure D3 was, in an investor's eyes, it wasn't at all. 10+million in sales is not a failure. Ever.

In a larger sense though, someone investing in ACTV will think about Blizzard's subscriptions somewhat down the list. ACTV is a lot bigger than just Blizzard. Blizzard's important but it's not everything. Not even close. That's one reason why all of these conversations about "Blizzard's investors" are largely besides the point. If Blizzard has a terrible quarter and Activision releases a new COD title to over-the-top sales, an 'investor' will hardly notice what's going on at Blizzard.

[Huehuecoyotl]

All we know for sure? No, we aren't.
The only numbers we are aware of tell us it's over 10 million.
You can keep ignoring that all you want, but that doesn't make you right.

wrong. the only numbers we have tell us that Blizzard latest numbers for "subscribers" is over 10 million. for all we know that includes 9 million people who played MoP for one day in september and have now cancelled their subscription or stopped paying for game time. we dont know if there are more than 10 million people playing WoW, we dont know if there are less. we. dont. know.

[painweaver]

wrong. the only numbers we have tell us that Blizzard latest numbers for "subscribers" is over 10 million. for all we know that includes 9 million people who played MoP for one day in september and have now cancelled their subscription or stopped paying for game time. we dont know if there are more than 10 million people playing WoW, we dont know if there are less. we. dont. know.

I'm glad to see that people actually realizes this. The 10 million number means nothing, even with Blizzard's stated "definition" of "active subs" , because there are multiple tactics used in business to inflate numbers for subscriptions.

[theWocky]

What kind of crap is this? Seriously?

What you proposed is forbidden by law... anything else?

Yeah, kind of like this guy who merely stated the truth - his version of it:

"I did not have sexual relations with that woman"

or

"I didn't inhale"

Just manipulate the wording and anything can be a true "statement", but not necessarily the truth :P

[Kangodo]

wrong. the only numbers we have tell us that Blizzard latest numbers for "subscribers" is over 10 million. for all we know that includes 9 million people who played MoP for one day in september and have now cancelled their subscription or stopped paying for game time. we dont know if there are more than 10 million people playing WoW, we dont know if there are less. we. dont. know.

Is thát your argument?
"The numbers are useless because they are 3 days old."?
Seriously...?

[Huehuecoyotl]

Is thát your argument?
"The numbers are useless because they are 3 days old."?
Seriously...?

oh please. it isnt that they are 3 days old, its that Blizzards definition of a "subscriber" is different to the notion of someone who is currently playing the game. but you know that, i suspect, and you are just trying to cloud the issue. you picked up on a statement without facts to support it, and responded without any facts to support your response. i called you out on it. suck it up and accept it.

[Kangodo]

oh please. it isnt that they are 3 days old, its that Blizzards definition of a "subscriber" is different to the notion of someone who is currently playing the game.

Is that the new bullshit argument of the day?
"Their definition includes someone that played on the first of the month, and he/she might not be playing now (three days later!)."

Because that is exactly what you are saying.

but you know that, i suspect, and you are just trying to cloud the issue. you picked up on a statement without facts to support it, and responded without any facts to support your response. i called you out on it. suck it up and accept it.

Huh, what. the. fuck?
You should really go back to school and learn what facts are.

Now suck it up and accept that the game has still 10 million people after you predicted its death a thousand times.

[Zeek Daniels]

All we know for sure? No, we aren't.
The only numbers we are aware of tell us it's over 10 million.
You can keep ignoring that all you want, but that doesn't make you right.

If you read what i said i said "people" as in actual human beings, not subscribed accounts. There are less than 10 million HUMAN players and we know this because ppl have multiple accounts, some 2 some 3 some 10 some 40.

Now suck it up and accept that the game has still 10 million people after you predicted its death a thousand times.

your wrong. Its impossible for the game to have 10 million people. players have multiple accounts therefore there are less than 10 million ppl playing. When Wow has 9 million subs it will still have less than 9 million players for the exact same reason. Subs =/= People.
Subs = Active accounts under blizzards multiple definitions.

[Exroyal]

If you read what i said i said "people" as in actual human beings, not subscribed accounts. There are less than 10 million HUMAN players and we know this because ppl have multiple accounts, some 2 some 3 some 10 some 40.

Like this person?

http://www.destructoid.com/hail-the-...k-107309.phtml

Not counting subs from Asia sounds dumb to me, why shouldn't they? Without those subs the game wouldn't be at 10m subs, not even half of it.

[Kangodo]

If you read what i said i said "people" as in actual human beings, not subscribed accounts. There are less than 10 million HUMAN players and we know this because ppl have multiple accounts, some 2 some 3 some 10 some 40.

And we also have people playing without an account, it's called "private servers".

The problem is this: Everyone in this topic is talking about different numbers, so we should first decide what it is that we are talking about.
Seeing as it started with the official report I guess we are talking about paying accounts.. and we have 10 million of those.

your wrong. Its impossible for the game to have 10 million people. players have multiple accounts therefore there are less than 10 million ppl playing. When Wow has 9 million subs it will still have less than 9 million players for the exact same reason. Subs =/= People.
Subs = Active accounts under blizzards multiple definitions.

So what? I'm not going along with this stupid "let's change the subject every 4 pages because we got proved wrong on the last one"-train everyone is jumping on.