Your number of total spells casts is absolutely not true, as I explained above, but let me get into the details of how MG works:

- MG is a canneling spell with 4 Ticks, triggering a small potion of damage with each tick, as well as 50% worth of a tick of each of your active dots.
- The chance to miss is rolled out in the moment you cast the spell. Otherwise MG could break in the middle of channeling which only happens, when you run out of mana.
- The number of of MG ticks (normal + crit) is exactly the number of Agony, UA and corr hits and crits, assuming no Drain Soul is used and dots are applied perfectly, meaning all 3 dots are active, when Mg is channeled for the whole channeling time. Due to human error this ratio can varry downwards or the number of the dot hits and crits can be higher, if Drain Soul comes into play.

Now let me take a look at your "total spells cast":

You say those are 5085 hits and 51 misses, leading to 5136 total spells cast. At this Point is your first fail, you ignored critical hits completely. With a total of 619 crits this would lead to 5755 "spells cast". This would only flatten the misses and your thesis would even be more validated that miss is not that worse.

Now take a look at the MG misses, which are 21 and have a miss chance of 1.6% in your log.

Code:

[# miss] /[# total casts] = [percent to miss]

Now you get 21 / 1.6% = 1312.5 This number is flawed by a heavy rounding error, but it gets close to the number of MG ticks and tick crits.

At this point you should already be questioning yourself: Are you recasting MG for each tick. I assume no, it would collide with the GCD. Therefore the percentage to miss MG is too low.

The same problem shows up, when you take the Dot ticks into account, therefore I am excluding those too.

Furthermore the number of Agony, UA and Corr hits and crits are just a little bit lower than the number of MG ticks (normal and crit) and the amount of DS ticks is negletable with less than 10.

Subtracting the numer of those hits and crits (4528) from the number of "spells cast" (5755) leads to 5755 - 4528 = 1227 spells cast excluding MG and DS.

In addition Touch of the Grave (ud racial) cannot miss, because it is coupled with succsesful hits, leading to 1227-181=1046 spellcasts which we can use for the further conclusions, without the need to make any simplifications or assuming.

This leads to 58-41=17 misses excluding dots and MG. And this leads to 17 / 1046 = 1.63% miss, but you may have been lucky since 1046 is a very little number in statistics. (In additions all those calculations were made under the assumption, you were fighting only bosslvl targets and no targets with lvl 92 or even lower)

I would like to proceed with the parts I have not explained in detail, but I am limited in time right now, therefore I must delay the observations of your data with dots and MG.

I hope this post may create some clarity.